Week 4 picks

**Guest** · 09-29-2009, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by daft_picks

One main play I'm getting in early, biggest one of the season so far.

Bengals -5.5 over Browns 3 units
Yes my first 3 unit play of the season is on the Bengals. No such things as guarantees in sports capping, but everything points to this being the right side. The Browns have shown no heart this season, their QB situation is a mess, their starting RB is injured and the defense is terrible. The Bengals have to be one of the biggest surprises of the season having just beaten the steelers and packers, what many would consider top tier teams. Their one loss came against another surprise team the Broncos (amazingly undefeated) but it was a huge fluke play. This line could be some crazy trap I am not smart enough to avoid, but what possible argument is there to play the Browns? I have a feeling public will be on this line hard and it will go up throughout the week. Maybe it could be a letdown game, but I just can't imagine that. The Bengals are fired up about their season and face a super easy divisional opponent, in a pick the winner situation I will go with the hot hand. Even if I lose this play I still think I will have made the smart choice.

I think you are right about this game being a trap, but it wouldn't be due to how poorly the Browns play, but rather the condition of the Bengals. Every game this season has come down to the wire; they've all been very tough games that have required the Bengals to expend a lot of mental energy. One of the games was a loss, the other two were wins. The problem with this is that eventually the Bengals are going to wear out...you simply can't go the entire season expending this amount of energy per game. Granted, it's early but still. Having said that, the trap is due to the the Bengal's following game: the Ravens in Baltimore, a very important divisional game. I think it's safe to assume this is the game the Bengals have on their mind right now, and consequently may take it easy against a terrible Browns team. Are they going to be practicing as hard this week as they will the week they play the Ravens, or the week they were preparing for the Steelers? No. In fact, given this game falls between two divisional games, I think it's possible they completely overlook the Browns and let up a bit in practice. Will the Bengals win this week? Probably. Will they cover? Not too sure, and that's the problem. Anyway, just wanted to chime in...first time post long time reader...I dig what you guys do :thumbs:

Good luck to you!

**daft_picks** · 09-29-2009, 01:55 AM

I agree with some of what you are saying but you are overlooking one key aspect, the Browns ARE a divisional opponent of the Bengals. Sure they will be looking slightly ahead to the harder team but there is no doubt in my mind they will take this one game at a time, especially against a divisional foe. I don't think they are suddenly going to go easy at practice just because they're facing the Browns. The Bengals look like a legit team for the first time in a while and they want to keep that going. I'm sure they will want to make a statement as the Ravens just did versus the same team and pound the **** out of them. They did have to grind it out versus GB and Pitt but there is no doubt in anyone's mind that they are better than the Brownies. Anything is possible of course, this game could come down to a FG, but I think chances are the Bengals can cover the spread in a pick the winner situation (which means a spread of less than 7 points, pick the winner of the game and more often than not that will be the right side). *anyone have a %win for this trend in the past few years?*

To some this may be a no play but if anyone has a good argument for a play on the Browns (as opposed to one against the Bengals, not that that's a bad thing to think about) I would be interested to hear it. I didn't look up statistics but what is the recent record between these two teams? Regardless of what you do BOL and :welcome:

**just looked up some stats/trends**
Bengals are 7-3 SU in last 10 games, 6-4 ATS vs the Browns. Bengals are 5-1 ATS last 6 games. Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in last 5 games.

I try not too base too much of trends because they don't offer complete information. Truthfully these so overwhelmingly point to Cinci it actually makes me more nervous. :beer2:

**hodown** · 09-29-2009, 06:28 AM

Pick the winner hits around 85%

**daft_picks** · 10-04-2009, 03:27 AM

Good week last week, another big card this week but **** it let's gamble. Luck to all :thumbs:

Colts -10 (-105) 2 units W +2
Bills/Dolphins Over 37 W +1
Giants -9 (even) W +1
Patriots -1.5 W +1
Ravens/Patriots Over 44.5 W +1
Saints -7 (-105) W +1
Buccaneers +7.5 (-105) W+ +1
Chargers +6.5 (-105) L -1.05

1/2 unit ML plays*unless noted different
Broncos(Denver) +120 .5 to win 1 unit (special prop free $10 bet) W +1
Jaguars(Jacksonville) +140 W +.7 :puke:
Chargers(SanDiego) +230 L -.5
Buccaneers(TampaBay) +280 L -.5
Raiders(Oakland) +320 L -.5
Dolphins(Miami) +100 W +.5

Tease this: .66 to win 3 L -.66
Bills/Fins Over 31
Chargers/Steelers Over 37
Giants/ChiefsUnder 48
Packers(GreenBay) +10
Raiders(Oakland) +14.5

Parlays:

.83 to win 6 units W +6
Bears(Chicago) -10
Bears/Lions over 40
Vikings(Minnesota) -190
Texans -400
Colts -550

.83 to win 4 units L -.83
Giants(NewYork) -9 (even)
Giants/Chiefs Under 42
Vikings -190

.65 to win 55 units L -.65
Dolphins(Miami) +1.5 (-105)
Steelers/Chargers Over 43
Chargers+240
Broncos +130
Giants -400
Saints -7 (-105)
Colts -550

Now we shall cast off into the night in preparation of the next huge day of NFL action. Very little of which I will see happen while I attend ACL in Austin, so here's hoping the football gods smile on me some this weekend. Let's do this thing!!!

Also added an anger parlay. As in if both of these teams win I will be extremely angry so might as well at least get paid right?
Parlay: Jags +140 Chiefs +320 .44 to win 4 units Please don't win :cross:

**daft_picks** · 10-05-2009, 01:24 AM

Of course I lost my big play but it was a decent day overall. Just goes to show when something looks too good to be true it probably is. Should keep to my strategy of playing about the same amount per game. Learning more every week.

Don't have time to calculate it all, 1 parlay still alive though so I'd thought I'd post a hedge play and everything else I'll be playing. BOL to all on MNF :beerbang:

Packers +175 1.5 to win 2.63 units L -1.5
Under 46 1 unit L -1

6 point teaser to win 1 unit:
Packers +10.5 / UNDER 51.5 L -1

Props: (all to win .5 units)
Greg Jennings total Receptions Under 4.5 (-125) W +.5
Aaron Rodgers passing yards Over 240.5 (-115) W +.5
Adrian Peterson Rushing Attempts Under 22.5 (-115) L -.58

**daft_picks** · 10-06-2009, 03:26 PM

Should have laid off on my hedge plays, was totally off on the total of the MNF game. Props were solid though going 2-1. Decent week, still room for improvement but feeling good about results so far. Sig updated with record, hope everyone had a good weekend, let's pick some winners for week 5! :thumbs:

Week 4 picks

Week 4 picks

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