Wow

[Kevin]

Just took a look at the NFL consensus this week... The public is in line to get freakin' torched this Sunday.

I'll expand on it a bit later, but as far as I can tell, they're only siding on about 3-4 games that are likely to go their way.

Some super nasty lines this week. Tread with caution!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Pick the right 3 or 4 games the public wins, put money down on those ones, and cash your ticket! :thumbs:

Thats the way I look at it.

It's silly and I think we've seen here it is non-profitable to blindly fade the public. Lazy and dumb, IMO.

[Larry]

who is it that just blindly fades the public?

I wouldn't think anybody bets real money blindly on anything other than maybe roulette.

[Kevin]

JML,

I hope you didn't interpret my post as a "fade the public on every game" because their going to get torched.

Every single game needs to be approached individually. I was just making a blanket statement that the public was going to get torched because the oddsmakers were hanging some really nasty lines. (and they did badly)(My one right call this year LOL)

All of the big public teams went down including Pitt, NE, GB and Indy "should" have gone down but Peyton Manning pulled yet another rabbit out of a hat. He's good. REAL good lol.

Anyhoo, I hope you nor anybody else thought I was insinuating to fade all the public games.

On a side note and completely unrelated to this conversation I'd like to add that I've have bet the Miami Dophins had they been -3. No way should a team that looked like **** at home last week vs. a mediocre Jax team be laying 3 pts on the road at good team's home opener on MNF. If that game was played 100x, I believe Miami would cover it 67% or better.

Larry, I will blindly bet on you vs. any other Mod in Vegas this November in a nest building contest. I'll parlay that with JB to win best bunshaker of the weekend as well ;)

[USFMD82]

is there some site or place you can go to to determine who the public is betting on? How did you find that information?

[Kevin]

wagerline.com has a consensus and the results of that consensus are as square as you'll find anywhere. I believe wagertracker.com has one as well.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Nah...I didn't think you were saying that, Kev. I just think people take that into consideration TOO much when capping...OR using it to get off a game. You can't say you haven't seen many times on this and other boards someone will like a side, but then state...uh-oh, 65% are on this side as well...better make it a no play!! Go with your own capping, and your gut is my opinion...and stop being lazy.

Huge "public" teams also won ATS the last week as well, including Buf, Bal, Oak, Min, NO & Indy. It's about picking the right anti-public AND public plays every week. Obviously. But hey...betting dogs and anti-pub is cool and "sharp" and not "square"! lol. I'd rather be square and + if thats the case.


GL ALL! :thumbs:

[Meestermike]

Here is some wagering data from a non sponsor book that is available online for free

# 401  09/27 1:00pm  Titans vs Jets (Week 3)  	 Jets 41.38%  Titans 58.62%
	3412 Bets

# 403 09/27 1:00pm 	Jaguars vs Texans (Week 3) 	Jaguars 31.45%  Texans 68.55%
	2544 Bets

# 405 09/27 1:00pm 	Chiefs vs Eagles (Week 3) 	Eagles 100.00%  Chiefs 0.00%
	288 Bets

# 407 09/27 1:00pm 	Browns vs Ravens (Week 3) Ravens 77.59%  Browns 22.41%
	2624 Bets

# 409 09/27 1:00pm 	Giants vs Bucs (Week 3) Giants 81.67%  Bucs 18.33%
	2640 Bet

# 411 09/27 1:00pm 	Redskins vs Lions (Week 3) Lions 69.57%  Redskins 30.43%
	1880 Bets

# 413 09/27 1:00pm 	Packers vs Rams (Week 3) 	Packers 68.93%  Rams 31.07%
	2124 Bets

# 415 09/27 1:00pm 	49ers vs Vikings (Week 3) 	Vikings 43.85%  49ers 56.15%
	2408 Bets

# 417 09/27 1:00pm 	Falcons vs Patriots (Week 3) Falcons 53.06%  Patriots 46.94%
	2744 Bets

# 419 09/27 4:05pm 	Bears vs Seahawks (Week 3) Bears 82.41% Seahawks 17.59%
	2092 Bets

# 421 09/27 4:05pm 	Saints vs Bills (Week 3) Saints 75.40%  Bills 24.60%
	2244 Bets

# 423 09/27 4:15pm 	Dolphins vs Chargers (Week 3) Dolphins 38.36%  Chargers 61.64%
	1220 Bets

# 425 09/27 4:15pm 	Steelers vs Bengals (Week 3) Bengals 38.27%  Steelers 61.73%
	2268 Bets

# 427 09/27 4:15pm 	Broncos vs Raiders (Week 3) Broncos 55.51% Raiders 44.49%
	2104 Bets

# 429 09/27 8:20pm 	Colts vs Cardinals (Week 3)(NBC) Cardinals 50.31% Colts 49.69%
	1304 Bets

# 431 09/28 8:35pm 	Panthers vs Cowboys (Week 3) Panthers 34.47% Cowboys 65.53%
	2228 Bets

[Meestermike]

Some consensus line history from 5 Dimes for Carolina vs. Dallas MNF

POINTSPREADS
09/21 11:58 –  / –  +10½ -125 / -10½ +105
09/21 12:23 [B]86%[/B] / 14% +10 -130 / -10 +110
09/22 14:44 [B]77%[/B] / 23% +10 -135 / -10 +115
09/23 16:18 [B]70%[/B] / 30%

[FlyersFan]

I'll parlay that with JB to win best bunshaker of the weekend as well ;)

on a side note i seriously have a rather large brush fire burning just to the west of me and it was apparently started by spontaneous combustion of a manure pile (no joke). Can JB account for his whereabouts Tuesday AM when that sucker was dumped and caught fire.....:dunno:

and never mistakenly buy larry a rum and coke instead of a captain and coke...:bang:...freeking ingrate....:bang:

[FlyersFan]

I'd rather be square

F'n SQUARES!!!!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

F'n SQUARES!!!!

:chaching:

[Queen]

on a side note i seriously have a rather large brush fire burning just to the west of me and it was apparently started by spontaneous combustion of a manure pile (no joke). Can JB account for his whereabouts Tuesday AM when that sucker was dumped and caught fire.....:dunno:

and never mistakenly buy larry a rum and coke instead of a captain and coke...:bang:...freeking ingrate....:bang:

We go thru this every year wonder if you get burned up in a fire. :bang:

A manure pile now that's a new one on me. He must have eaten alot of green hay.

I think JB and Larry were having a nest building contest that night somewhere out in CA.

Figures you would say you bought Larry a rum and coke when the drinks are free in the cave. LOL

[The Mailman]

I'll buy Larry a rum and coke any ol time that waitress is taking orders ;)

[Larry]

I bring that waitress with me:beer2: