**Week 2 Discussion**

[Billy The Kid]

didn't see one yet so figured i'd fire it up, hope im not stepping on UD's toes!

this weeks home dogs

New York Jets +3.5 v New England
Detroit Lions +10 v Minnesota
Chicago Bears +3 v Pittsburgh
Miami Dolphins +3 v Indy




Jets +3.5 - Jets defense looked great last week shutting down Johnson and Slaton and put tons of pressure on Schuab rolling over Houston's poor offensive line. IMO the Baltimore Jets defense puts even more pressure on Brady and company this week against a Patriots O-line that looked pretty shaky against the Bills. The Jets running game continued to be solid and they let Sanchez loose a little bit and take some opportunities. I think they continue to have a good balance both ways and allow sanchez to go down field against a weak Patriots secondary. The Jets also have one of the best screen backs in the league with Leon Washington, a guy who has played very well against the Patriots in the past, and Fred Jackson ate the Pats D up last week and had some big gains on screen passes, Im sure there will be a big emphasis on defending the screen this week in New England. The Patriots defense on the other hand lost their best defensive player in Mayo and allowed Trent Edwards to look, well.....like Tom Brady.....If the Jets can continue to sustain pressure on Brady I think they have an excellent chance of winning this game baring Sanchez making a costly turnover. Public also hitting the Patriots at an 87% clip now. Leaning Jets and possibly a ML play.

Detroit Lions +10 - Still don't think I can bring myself to back the Lions even with Favre on the other side of the ball. Detroit did put up some points against a weak Saints D but IMO they struggle against the tough Minnesota front. Detroit couldn't get anything going on the ground with K. Smith avg. 1.3 yds per carry (15 attemtps for 20 yds) Smith was effective in the passing game with 7 receptions and will most likely be Staffords best option if Minnesota can pressure the rookie QB. On Defense Detroit let Mike Bell tear them up for 143 yds on 28 carries and now have the challenge of stopping the best back in the game in AP. Im sure the Lions will be up for this game against Favre in a new uni but I don't think Bret will have the opportunity to throw this one away with the Vikings probably running the ball 40x. This game is probably a no play for me as I can't see myself backing the Lions or the Vikes as 10 point favs on back to back roadies. If any play it will be on the under (46.5) as I think it is set too high. Both teams like to run the football witch should keep the clock moving and I think the Lions 27 points last week was a rarity.

Chicago Bears +3 - The Cutler experiment after week 1 did not look to good and IMO the Bears look to get the ball back into Forte's hands in the passing game( zero catches week 1). The problem is they're up against a stout Pittsburgh D even without Troy Pol. Chicago's game against Green Bay IMO was not as close as the final score indicated and watching it I felt that the Packers could break it open any sec. Was it the Bears D that was comming up with plays when need or the lack of Packer execution? IMO it was the lack of execution, something that doesn't happen often with a disciplined/fundamental Pitt team. With extra rest and time to prepare I lean towards Pitt.

Miami Dolphins +3 - Before the season I expected both teams to take a step back this year. Miami had an unreal turnover ration last season, one that was going to be almost impossible to repeat and low and behold the Dolphins offense turned the ball over 4times last week. Indy also had its issues turning the ball over and when changing coaches and play calling, its only natural for a team to have some kinks to work out and things got worse with the injury to Anthony Gonzalez. I didn't get to see much of these two games so don't know if the Indy game was really as close as the score indicated with their two costly turnovers. Indy currently at -3 -125 with 96% of the public. Think this one goes up through the week and my initial lean is with the phins if I can get them around +4 by Sunday as I think the Dolphins have the ability to control the clock if they can hang on to the ball.

Also think there may be some value with the eagles without McNabb as Im sure the public will be all over the Saints who have been a poor road team the past few years.

Leaning towards Cleveland as a road dog as well

Any thoughts on the Ravens/Chargers. Was suprised to see San Diego as a 3 point fav.

[bluedevil12]

I may be a homer, but I think the Jets can beat the Patriots. I will definitely be on the spread/maybe ML too...

As far as other games go, I'm leaning towards NO PK (assuming McNabb is out), will do more research in the coming days...

[GMoney]

Been waiting for this thread to pop up so I can contribute.

The Jets game jumps out at me bigtime. You hit the nail on the head with leon washington who will complement Thomas Jones nicely in the backfield. That New Englad D shouldn't scare anyone, and I think the J-E-T-S have a huge homefield advantage with their crowd absolutely stoked on this team. New England has a joke of a running game and with Brady chucking up 50+ pass attempts vs. the Bills I see a lot of opportunities for him to be pressured, hit, hurried and sacked. Not to sound lke Ron Jawarski but he did not look comfortable in the pocket at all. I like my money with Rex Ryan and that defense. Only area of concern is their secondary - which i dont know anything about. So anyone who can provide some input here I'd appreciate it. Can they contain Moss and do they have enough speed to stay with Welker and Faulk underneath? The early line movement from +5.5 down to +3.5 and the public hitting the Pats that hard is another element which has me liking the Dirty Sanchez's.

Another game I liked was San Francisco -1.5 vs. Seattle. I believe the books opened this as a 1 point Seattle favorite as well, and I love the early movement over to SF. Hasselbeck threw 2 early picks vs. St. Louis and this SF defense is for real. He's a mistake prone QB and SF has some playmakers on that D, namely Willis and Clements. Also, Jackson avereged something like 4.6 per cary vs. the Seattle D but had to abandon the run as they trailed by two touchdowns from the second quarter on. I see Gore having similar success. I'm a niner guy but I dont consider myself a homer, unless we're analyzing my fantasy team. Shaun Hill is also a lot better than he gets credit for. However my favorite aspect of this Niner squad is Singletery. He called a timeout late in the 3rd quarter in Arizona last week, when there was a clear momentum shift underway. Arizona was driving and the crowd was behind him. Homeboy called a timeout, come onto the field and got in the middle of the defensive huddle and rallied his team. He would have put a helmet and pads on if he were allowed to. Love the Niners in their home opener this week.

I also initially liked the Jaguars but the early line movement has me curious. They've gone from a 5 point fave down to -3. Nothing about Arizona has impressed me in 2009, Bolden is questionable, and Arizona is that west coast team traveling east to play the early game. I like Gerrard and Jones-Drew and this team, and namely this D, hung with Indy at Indy. I know Indy made some mistakes but you'd have to think the Jags defensive scheme contributed to their ineffectiveness. I know JAX-Indy is somewhat of a rivalry so maybe that also contributed to the close game, but I'd figure they'd be more of a 6 point favorite at home instead of a 3 to a struggling Cardinals squad. Again, im looking for more expert analysis here and I'm Jaguar ignorant, haha.

There are a couple of games i absolutely wont touch, namely oakland/kc and minny/detroit. I agree with you that Philly might be a solid play given New Orleans hype and terrible road performance.

I also like the Giants in the Sunday Nighter. I watched Leftwich in the preseason and remember thinking that Tampa Needed a QB terribly, and the fact that he and Cadillac and the rest of that stable of Tampa runningbacks found so much success against the Cowboys D has me thinking the Cowboys D is donkey ****. Jacobs should terrorize them, Bradshaw, like Leon Washington (isn't that the name of the ladies man from the SNL skits? haha) is a great screen pass/change of pace back, and Manning is a smart QB with capable, despite somewhat nameless to the general public receivers.

[Daws1089]

I would not be surprised to see the eagles try to run to ball 30+ times against New Orleans. That will keep the stress low for Kolb and keep the Saints offense off the field. Also, the saints will be without Jamaal Brown again at LT so that could leave Bushrod as a weakness going against Trent Cole. They will probably need to keep Shockey or a running back in to help the LT block rather than slip out for a pass. I can see Philly taking this one in a grind it out type of fashion. I think the public is overreacting to what the saints did in week 1 and the same thing with Mcnabbs injury. The eagles do have two shutdown corners as well which will make it difficult for Brees.

Week 2 is hard because you only have one week to base your thoughts off of and it's hard to put any data together without valuing the first week too much. A lot of times the public only remembers what happened the week before. In the case of week 2, everyone remembers the week before because that is all there was to go from so I'm going to try to be careful this week again.

I can't believe the Jets line has been bet down 1.5 pts. There must be serious money coming in on them to move it with all of the Pats lovers. But I do think the NYJ are the play. NE defense is really really bad.

I also like SF -1.5. Seahawks are actually pretty banged up. I think Gore will have much better success running on SEA than he did on ARIZ. ARIZ actually has a pretty good front 4. SEA is not the same. I will likely back SF in this one and trust that their defense can limit Hasselbeck. Julius Jones doesn't scare me.

I'll have some more thoughts later in the week.

[daft_picks]

Good looks so far, a couple of the same jumped out at me.

I do agree the Jags have potential, and I am willing to fade the Cards until they show last year wasn't a fluke (gave them a shot -4.5 last week :bang:). MJD should have some room to run, the Jags have a way more capable ground game and can hopefully use it to control the clock. With such a low spread in a pick the winner situation I do like the Jags chances to win.

The Jets are interesting, and really did show something week 1 while NE was exposed. That being said it is hard for me to take a rookie QB over Tom Brady with a spread of 4, even with everything else considered. I really do see this game being close though, even the possible upset, so I feel there is value in a teaser but likely a no play.

NYG seems like the best play on the board to me. Still not sold on Dallas, especially their run game right now. The Giants should be able to run well with Jacobs and Bradshaw. The Giants are good because they come at you with a lot of different types of weapons that are hard to account for. I think Tampa was able to move on Dallas well especially via the ground, but they are not a complete football team. Getting the Giants as a dog is sweet and while no guarantee I like the odds.

And the bears I could never consider backing right now after that last game. I mean ok Pittsburg is maybe not as good as last year when they won the freaking super bowl but they have the skill to win football games. Chicago has not gelled as a team yet, they will at some point be better, but do I think it's against pittsburg? Most likely not. The line of -3 surprises me (pays even right now at sportsbook) is there something I don't know? I think the Titans defense is better than the bears defense Big Ben and co will face. Parker sucked it up last week he is most likely going to get a little ground game going like we saw Grant. Big Ben just wins too that fool haha. :beer2:

Even though it's almost the biggest spread of the week I still think Redskins -9.5 over the Lambs might deserve a play. I mean really they just got SHUT OUT BY THE SEAHAWKS 28-0! And now they travel to meet a pissed off Skins team with big boi Haynesworth just ready to shake the **** out of Bulger. A bet against the Rams is a bet on the right team in principle, what do you guys think? Will Steven Jackson maybe get some running room finally and open up the offense? Or can we expect somewhere like 6 points from these guys? Lean UNDER 37.

Not that great at totals usually but UNDER 42 packers/bungles stood out to me for some reason, not exactly sure why. I just don't see a lot of points scored in that game...24-13 max..??...also OVER 46.5 Vikings/Lions seems too easy because I get the feeling it's like batting practice when teams play the lions, lots of easy balls and big plays. Hopefully Farve goes nuts too haha cause I have him starting on a fantasy team (don't ask) :puke:

AND I will obviously be on the Titans over the Texans. I think they will get the job this weekend after blowing a possible win versus the super bowl champs last week. The Titans should be able to exploit the texans in all of the ways the Jets were able too, I see and hope for a rout...24-14 at least...

possible teaser picks
Jets +10, Giants +9.5, Titans Pick, Skins -3

Mostly I want to hear what others think if any we have mentioned seem particularly good or other sides to our arguments. Let's pick some good ones this week.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I actually think there's some value on the Pats -3. Coming off last weeks game, where the Jets and the rookie QB look good on the road against a perceived good team (Hou will bounce back), and the Pats coming off what should have been a loss with everyone watching in primetime. This line is dropping like Paris Hilton to her knees. I think this -3 is an over-reaction. BIg time. This line would have been -9 without last weeks results, and I know that the Jets will be this week's sexy pick. But I might lay the 3. Brady has his first game under his belt...he'll only be better. Belichek against a rookie QB. I don't know....I have a feeling this one isn't close, and the Pats win easy.

Love the Browns getting 3.5. They were in tough against maybe the league's best team in Minny...and now facing the Broncos, who could be one of the 3 worst teams. Minny was an easy win last week, and I only wish I didn't play that best play on the Week 1 board more last week (although I had it all over contests last week). But this week...Browns...I'll jump on the points please....and I would have bet CLE as a pick'em. That FG + hook is huge. Denver gets lucky and beats the Bengals? So what. They will be as horrible as everyone thought. I layed off Cincy, and the big Denver fade last week b/c I wasn't sold on them turning things around....especially laying points. but no way should Denver start laying a FG or more just because they lucked out a win on a wierd play against a bad team. Browns are the better team, better coach, and are getting a FG in what should be a low scoring game.

Also like Houston getting a TD. Another over-reaction from week 1. Public hammering the Titans because the Texans **** the bed against NYJ, and Ten look solid in the prime-time season opener against the champs. But a TD is too much IMO, and I could see a live road dog surprising this week. The Texans players and coaches have to believe it was one game, and the talented team will re-group and most likely put through a better effort. Wether that gets them the win, or even cover remains to be seen, but the best play is backing that scenerio and the full TD in the back pocket. This line would have been -3 before last weeks results.

Like the Giants too. Better team, getting a FG against a boys team that is public, and over-rated. Like Gmen ML.

Niners ML. Not sold on Seattle, after hammering the horrible Rams. I like the Niners this year...and I see them winning their home opener. Glad I didn't have to lay the obligatory FG here...as Seattle's big win gave them the edge, taking into account the usual home FG spread. I like Hill & Gore to play well this week. I love the SF defence...strong group. I like Singletary as a coach. I like home field, and more importantly Seattle playing their first road game after an easy home opener. SF gets this done.

Looking harder at Baltimore too. Don;t like them travelling into SC...but the Bolts are over-rated, banged up, and wouldn't be surprised to see them go down. I'll have to look into that further however.

[daft_picks]

JML just want to say I agree with your analysis on the Pats/Jets spread, I really do think the Pats will win that game and in a pick the winner situation i would play the odds and go for NE if anything. The browns are an interesting pick but a bit scary. It is odd though that the spread is about the same as it was versus the vikings, the broncos do suck. I think that game could go under 37.5 pretty easily, even if that is a low total.

My gut tells me San Fran is the right play but I am hesitant. I really would have like to seen the 49ers run better, they eeked out a victory over a very out of sync Cardinals team where Boldin was injured and tim freaking hightower was their leading receiver. The hawks were gelling, ok it was against the Rams, but I could see this going either way. I still lean san fran, just worried the hawks might have more up their sleeves than we are aware of.

I am on the Giants as of right now before the line moves anywhere. -120 I guess indicates people are more on that side, i'm going to play the ML too I think.

Here is a humorous list of games I have absolutely no read on and will probably not touch: Buffalo -5 vs Tampa, Chargers -3 vs Ravens (ravens just seem too easy I am very surprised by this spread but would def not bet on the chargers), Eagles vs Saints pick (really no idea could go either way)

[Underdog88]

I actually think there's some value on the Pats -3. Coming off last weeks game, where the Jets and the rookie QB look good on the road against a perceived good team (Hou will bounce back), and the Pats coming off what should have been a loss with everyone watching in primetime. This line is dropping like Paris Hilton to her knees. I think this -3 is an over-reaction. BIg time. This line would have been -9 without last weeks results, and I know that the Jets will be this week's sexy pick. But I might lay the 3. Brady has his first game under his belt...he'll only be better. Belichek against a rookie QB. I don't know....I have a feeling this one isn't close, and the Pats win easy.

The Jets defense has not proven enough for me to back them vs the Pats. I still think they may be a bit overrated, a bit too much credit after shutting down HOUSTON'S offense. Not too sure facing Houston prepares you for the Pats offense. I think Brady got the jitters out and will be focused, but of course that wouldn't be the concern with backing the Pats. Pats weaknesses defensively were exposed by the Bills, the jets have the tools to exploit it. Thomas Jones, Leon out of the backfield, short passes & maybe some shots downfield. I do expect some exotic blitzes & different looks to try and throw Sanchez off. We'll see how he reacts.... I have a lean to the over.

[Daws1089]

yea i can see the argument for backing the pats offensively, but how could youfeel okay backing that defense? They looked incredibly slow. Plus Adalius Thomas has to play inside now that Mayo is out, so that takes away probably their best pass rusher. I might be with underdog on this one. Over looks better than a side.

[Underdog88]

Man I just don't know about a side on the eagles/Saints game. IMO it could go either way, but I'm fairly sure of two things.

1. The Saints defense may be improved, but I have yet to see it.

2. The Saints offense really is that good.


Not to say Brees will throw 4 tds every game, but I will not consider an under play with the Saints. Daws in your opinion do you think Kolb is capable of getting the ball in the endzone? I do agree the Eagles may run a ton, but I still think there will be enough offense to get over the total. You also have the big play potential from both sides on special teams.....

[Daws1089]

Nothing that i've seen leads me to believe that Kolb can get the ball in the endzone unless he just dumps it to westbrook. Kolb has a quick release, but I'm not sure he can make all the reads. Like you said, the Saints D could be improved, but that remains to be seen. 27 to the Lions? I guess we'll see. If the eagles can run the ball I really do think they are the side. Brees in a pick em with mcnabb out looks sooo easy.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

The Jets defense has not proven enough for me to back them vs the Pats. I still think they may be a bit overrated, a bit too much credit after shutting down HOUSTON'S offense. Not too sure facing Houston prepares you for the Pats offense. I think Brady got the jitters out and will be focused, but of course that wouldn't be the concern with backing the Pats. Pats weaknesses defensively were exposed by the Bills, the jets have the tools to exploit it. Thomas Jones, Leon out of the backfield, short passes & maybe some shots downfield. I do expect some exotic blitzes & different looks to try and throw Sanchez off. We'll see how he reacts.... I have a lean to the over.

I agree. Good post. NE defence is defintely a concern. I have this as a shootout, but the Pats still winning by DD. Over is a good play though, I agree.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Man I just don't know about a side on the eagles/Saints game. IMO it could go either way, but I'm fairly sure of two things.

1. The Saints defense may be improved, but I have yet to see it.

2. The Saints offense really is that good.


Not to say Brees will throw 4 tds every game, but I will not consider an under play with the Saints. Daws in your opinion do you think Kolb is capable of getting the ball in the endzone? I do agree the Eagles may run a ton, but I still think there will be enough offense to get over the total. You also have the big play potential from both sides on special teams.....

BIGGEST no play of the week IMO....too many wierd variables...not even going close to capping that game...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Been waiting for this thread to pop up so I can contribute.

The Jets game jumps out at me bigtime. You hit the nail on the head with leon washington who will complement Thomas Jones nicely in the backfield. That New Englad D shouldn't scare anyone, and I think the J-E-T-S have a huge homefield advantage with their crowd absolutely stoked on this team. New England has a joke of a running game and with Brady chucking up 50+ pass attempts vs. the Bills I see a lot of opportunities for him to be pressured, hit, hurried and sacked. Not to sound lke Ron Jawarski but he did not look comfortable in the pocket at all. I like my money with Rex Ryan and that defense. Only area of concern is their secondary - which i dont know anything about. So anyone who can provide some input here I'd appreciate it. Can they contain Moss and do they have enough speed to stay with Welker and Faulk underneath? The early line movement from +5.5 down to +3.5 and the public hitting the Pats that hard is another element which has me liking the Dirty Sanchez's.

Another game I liked was San Francisco -1.5 vs. Seattle. I believe the books opened this as a 1 point Seattle favorite as well, and I love the early movement over to SF. Hasselbeck threw 2 early picks vs. St. Louis and this SF defense is for real. He's a mistake prone QB and SF has some playmakers on that D, namely Willis and Clements. Also, Jackson avereged something like 4.6 per cary vs. the Seattle D but had to abandon the run as they trailed by two touchdowns from the second quarter on. I see Gore having similar success. I'm a niner guy but I dont consider myself a homer, unless we're analyzing my fantasy team. Shaun Hill is also a lot better than he gets credit for. However my favorite aspect of this Niner squad is Singletery. He called a timeout late in the 3rd quarter in Arizona last week, when there was a clear momentum shift underway. Arizona was driving and the crowd was behind him. Homeboy called a timeout, come onto the field and got in the middle of the defensive huddle and rallied his team. He would have put a helmet and pads on if he were allowed to. Love the Niners in their home opener this week.

I also initially liked the Jaguars but the early line movement has me curious. They've gone from a 5 point fave down to -3. Nothing about Arizona has impressed me in 2009, Bolden is questionable, and Arizona is that west coast team traveling east to play the early game. I like Gerrard and Jones-Drew and this team, and namely this D, hung with Indy at Indy. I know Indy made some mistakes but you'd have to think the Jags defensive scheme contributed to their ineffectiveness. I know JAX-Indy is somewhat of a rivalry so maybe that also contributed to the close game, but I'd figure they'd be more of a 6 point favorite at home instead of a 3 to a struggling Cardinals squad. Again, im looking for more expert analysis here and I'm Jaguar ignorant, haha.

There are a couple of games i absolutely wont touch, namely oakland/kc and minny/detroit. I agree with you that Philly might be a solid play given New Orleans hype and terrible road performance.

I also like the Giants in the Sunday Nighter. I watched Leftwich in the preseason and remember thinking that Tampa Needed a QB terribly, and the fact that he and Cadillac and the rest of that stable of Tampa runningbacks found so much success against the Cowboys D has me thinking the Cowboys D is donkey ****. Jacobs should terrorize them, Bradshaw, like Leon Washington (isn't that the name of the ladies man from the SNL skits? haha) is a great screen pass/change of pace back, and Manning is a smart QB with capable, despite somewhat nameless to the general public receivers.

Thanks G. Good post. :thumbs:

[hodown]

Thing I've noticed up to this point is the early and heavy line movement. Normally books don't seem to adjust their lines this much in the NFL.

Oak @ KC -4.5 to -3
NE @ NYJ +6.5 to +3.5
Ari @ Jax -5.5 to -3
Sea @ SF +1 to -1.5
Pit @ Chi +1 to +3

To me SF and Jax look like the best plays on the board. Gotta think the SF is gonna come out pretty pumped with the opportunity to get to 2-0, can't remember the last time that was. Not to mention a victory puts them 2-0 in the division and Sea is a notoriously poor road team. Jax is more of a trend play with the west coast team going east. I think these two teams played last year with Jax winning by 4 and ultimately pushing. AZ still seems to be getting too much public love imo.

Further food for thought, public is on 9 of 16 road teams this week.

NO was 2-6 s/u on the road last year, with the wins coming against KC and Det. From the looks of the defense, it can't be too much improved from last year. Backup QB's starting for the first time in the season trend pretty well I believe.