Tommy Gold NFL Picks

**TommyGold** · 12-14-2009, 06:40 PM

Yesterday finished with a 4-2, 2-1 on pointspreads and 2-1 on totals.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

The Niners have a good defense and their offense is also quite good, but despite playing at home tonight, they've had consistently lose all their important games against stronger teams during the current season by a 6/7 pts margin.

I don't expect them to win tonight against an Arizona team that leads their division and that has managed to win their games on the road and the Cards are showing a nice improvement on their last games too.

I think that the Cardinals offense has an edge for this game and they have enough quality to win this game by at least by a touchdown.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek

**TommyGold** · 12-18-2009, 01:34 AM

First pick for NFL 2009, Week 15:

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

**TommyGold** · 12-19-2009, 12:12 AM

NFL 2009, Week 15, 5 spreads and 2 totals:

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

I might still have something for the SNF and the MNF...

Below is my Week 14 results recap:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (30-10: LOSS)
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-26: WIN)
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (10-16: WIN)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (14-21: WIN)
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-20: WIN)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (38-45: LOSS)
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek (24-9: LOSS)

SIDES: 2-2; TOTALS: 2-1 (Week 14: +0.6 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 50-54-1 (-8.57 units lost/104 units risked);
SIDES: 46-45 (-3.25 units won/91 units risked);
TOTALS 4-9 (-5.32 units lost/13 units risked).

**TommyGold** · 12-24-2009, 01:21 AM

NFL 2009 Week 16 first pick:

San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers +3 -110 (1.91) The Greek & San Diego Chargers ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes

Below is my Week 15 results recap:

106 - Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-24: LOSS)
107 - Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-24 OT: LOSS)
108 - Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (34-41: WIN)
109 - Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-41: LOSS)
110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (37-36: LOSS)
111 - Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (31-7: WIN)
112 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (7-24: LOSS)

SIDES: 1-4; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 14: -2.09 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 52-59-1 (-12.56 units lost/111 units risked);
SPREADS: 46-47-1 (-6.25 units lost/93 units risked);
TOTALS: 5-10 (-5.41 units lost/15 units risked);
ML: 1-2 (-0.9 units lost/3 units risked).

**TommyGold** · 12-25-2009, 11:48 PM

NFL 2009 Week 16, final 12 picks:

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders +3 +105 (2.05) The Greek & Oakland Raiders ML +150 (2.50) Bookmaker & Under 38 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
: Buffalo Bills +9.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek & Houston Texans ML +125 (2.25) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica & Baltimore Ravens & ML +130 (2.30) The Greek

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (SNF): Washington Redskins +7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MNF): Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

**TommyGold** · 12-30-2009, 12:45 AM

Below is my Week 16 results recap:

113 - San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers +3 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-42: WIN)
114 - San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes (17-42: WIN)
115 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders +3 +105 (2.05) The Greek (23-9: LOSS)
116 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders ML +150 (2.50) Bookmaker (23-9: LOSS)
117 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Under 38 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (23-9: WIN)
118 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (17-10: WIN)
119 - Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons: Buffalo Bills +9.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (31-3: LOSS)
120 - Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (20-27: WIN)
121 - Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans ML +125 (2.25) Bookmaker (20-27: WIN)
122 - Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (23-20: PUSH/VOID)
123 - Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens ML +130 (2.30) The Greek (23-20: LOSS)
124 - New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (15-29: LOSS)
125 - Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (SNF): Washington Redskins +7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-17: LOSS)
126 - Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MNF): Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (36-30 OT: LOSS)

SIDES: 5-7-1; TOTALS: 1-0 (Week 16: -0.79 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 58-66-2 (-13.35 units lost/124 units risked);
SPREADS: 49-52-2 (-8.6 units lost/93 units risked);
TOTALS: 6-10 (-4.5 units lost/16 units risked);
ML: 3-4 (-0.25 units lost/7 units risked).

Have to recognize my shortcomings when it comes to SNF and MNF games...

9-18 (0-6 on the last 4 weeks) and -9.85 units lost is not a great calling card...

Was doing great until Week 10, since Week 11 it was always downhill rock bottom... :|

**TommyGold** · 01-03-2010, 02:13 AM

NFL 2009 Week 17, final 11 picks:

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: Under 33 -115 (1.87) The Greek

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns: Cleveland Browns ML -120 (1.83) The Greek

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: Under 44.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta Falcons ML -125 (1.80) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +140 (2.40) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +11 -125 (1.80) 5Dimes

Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks +6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks ML +230 The Greek

**TommyGold** · 01-05-2010, 05:03 PM

Below is my Week 17 results recap:

127 - Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: Under 33 -115 (1.87) The Greek (30-7: LOSS)
128 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns: Cleveland Browns ML -120 (1.83) The Greek (23-17: WIN)
129 - Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: Under 44.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (23-37: LOSS)
130 - New England Patriots @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-27: PUSH/VOID)
131 - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker (24-30: WIN)
132 - Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta Falcons ML -125 (1.80) Bookmaker (10-20: WIN)
133 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (24-0: LOSS)
134 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +140 (2.40) Bookmaker (24-0: LOSS)
135 - Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +11 -125 (1.80) 5Dimes (13-21: WIN)
136 - Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks +6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (13-17: WIN)
137 - Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks ML +230 The Greek (13-17: LOSS)

SIDES: 5-3-1; TOTALS: 0-2 (Week 17: -0.83 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);
SPREADS: 52-53-3 (-7.06 units lost/105 units risked);
TOTALS: 6-12 (-6.5 units lost/18 units risked);
ML: 5-6 (-0.62 units lost/11 units risked).

Brief Analysis:

Sunday and Monday Night Football games went 9-18, with 0-5 on Totals and 0-1 on Moneylines. This translated on -9.85 units lost.

Without those games, I would finish with a 54-53-3 season record and -4.33 units lost. A loss is always a loss, even if it is a small one.

Point spreads would finish 43-41 and -3.21 units lost, totals would end 6-7 and -1.5 units lost, moneylines would finish 5-5 and +0.38 units won.

Until 2009.11.29, the NFL 2009 Season record would 44-42-1, -1.99 units lost (86 units risked). Without the SNF and MNF games, the season record would be 35-32-1 and -0.14 units lost (67 units risked).

From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, the NFL 2009 Season record finished 19-29-2, -12.19 units lost (48 units risked) with a brutal 0-8 on SNF and MNF games, which if we take out of the record, would translate to a 19-21-2 record and -4.19 units lost (40 units risked).

So after all, even without the mess caused by the SNF and MNF games, my performance on NFL showed that this season I didn't showed a useful edge on any market, aside the dogs (an obvious one).

To simplify things, looking only at the underdogs market for the season, converting the ML Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (37-36: LOSS)) in the pointspread, translates to Green Bay Packers +2 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers +2 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (37-36: WIN)), which can be easily verified on any odds history service like the NFL Scores and Odds of the sbrforum.

The season record on dogs would finish 17-14-1, +1.13 units won (31 units risked). Without the 4 dogs on SNF and MNF games, the record would be 16-11-1, +3.33 units won.

Until 2009.11.29, 8-6-1, +1.13 units won (7-6-1, +0.33 units won without SNF and MNF games). From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, 9-8-1, ZERO units won (9-5-1, +3 units won without SNF and MNF games).

On the last 5 weeks of the season, besides the mess on the SNF and MNF games, I also failed to navigate on the favorite picks. I've done some research and on the previous 3 seasons (2006 to 2008), only on 2007 the favs manage to cover (big) since Week 9 until Week 17. On the other 2 seasons, the dogs were kings and did a lot of damage... :)

I don't have any kind of lines history information that go back in time as long as possible since 2005, so if you know anything about this, please let me know, because I would like to spend some time looking at previous seasons before 2006.

BTW, until 2009.11.29 my overall season performance on all sports combined without NFL (NHL+NBA+NCAAB) was -7.95 units lost and 334 units risked.

From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, NHL+NBA+NCAAB+NCAAF finished with +41.57 units won and 483 units risked. And if I took the college hoops moneylines out of the equation, my overall profits on the last 5 weeks show a great improvement: +54.72 units won and 457 units risked.

So, despite the bad NFL 2009 regular season, I've other motives of happiness, specially on the NBA. :P

**TommyGold** · 01-09-2010, 03:24 PM

NFL 2010.01.09 final 3 picks:

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +170 (2.70) The Greek

**TommyGold** · 01-10-2010, 12:54 PM

NFL 2010.01.10 final 2 picks:

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 47 -110 (1.91) The Greek

**TommyGold** · 01-11-2010, 10:33 PM

Below is my NFL 2009 Playoffs - Wild-Card Weekend results recap:

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (14-24: LOSS)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-14: LOSS)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +170 (2.70) The Greek (34-14: LOSS)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (14-33: LOSS)
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 47 -110 (1.91) The Greek (51-45 OT: WIN)

NFL 2009 Playoffs Season record: 1-4 (-3.64 units lost/5 units risked);
NFL 2009 Regular Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);

**TommyGold** · 01-16-2010, 01:45 PM

NFL 2010.01.16 final 2 picks:

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

NFL 2010.01.17 final 2 picks:

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

**TommyGold** · 01-24-2010, 03:00 AM

NFL 2010.01.24 final 3 picks:

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: New York Jets +8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: New York Jets ML +315 (4.15) Bookmaker

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

* One unit each always.

Below is my NFL 2009 Playoffs - Divisional Playoffs Weekend results recap:

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (45-14: WIN)
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (20-3: WIN)
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (34-3: WIN)
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (14-17: LOSS)

NFL 2009 Playoffs Season record: 4-5 (-1.95 units lost/9 units risked)
NFL 2009 Regular Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked)

**TommyGold** · 01-25-2010, 12:27 PM

NFL 2010.01.24 final pick:

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes, Bet Jamaica

* One unit each always.

Below is my NFL 2009 Playoffs - Conference Championships Weekend results recap:

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: New York Jets +8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (30-17: LOSS)
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: New York Jets ML +315 (4.15) Bookmaker (30-17: LOSS)
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (31-28 OT: LOSS)

NFL 2009 Playoffs Season record: 4-8 (-4.95 units lost/12 units risked);
NFL 2009 Regular Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);

**TommyGold** · 02-07-2010, 12:48 PM

NFL 2010.02.07 only pick:

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are almost a perfect team, when they wanted to play at their best, they did it quite well. The Saints on the road lacked the same effort and mostly, the same results at home on their last trips, winning several games by less than 7 points against lowly teams. Now they will face the most difficult opponent they could this year and there is a slight edge favoring Manning due to his experience and his almost perfect way of playing. He remembers me Alain Prost, The Professor of F1, by the way he pushed the car without endangering his performance, the same does Peyton Manning. Rivers is well served on his offense, both for the passing game as for the running game as well, but the Saints overall did their best performances this year at home and this is their first big game and the Colts already know how to play it, so in terms of pressure, this New Orleans team is more vulnerable.

On the defense, Freeney is the great question mark for the Colts (I think he will not play) and his absence might balance both teams, since he could do a lot of damage to the Saints OL. Indianapolis showed that they can win games even when things are going very bad like they did at home against the Patriots, but this season they showed also a lot of close results, so the Saints have here something to start with. I believe both teams can pose problems for the opponent defenses and sometimes the offenses will prevail, others won't. This is a great game and I don't see anyone losing it big, but I think that the Colts are due for another Super Bowl thanks for having the most experienced and seasoned quarterback, who also has a very experienced team on both ends, and this experience will prevail in the end, with the Colts winning this game by a 10 points margin, give or take.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -4.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

*One unit each always.

Tommy Gold NFL Picks

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