Tommy Gold NFL Picks

[TommyGold]

ACHTUNG/ ATENTION: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: NYG +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek is incorrect. My mistake:


This is the correct line:
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica



Folks, I'm aware that most of the decent offshores sportsbooks have now NYG -1 -110 (1.91), but since Bet Jamaica has a nice $5K USD pointspread wager/stakes limit for the NFL, I'm gonna take it, if it is not a problem to all of you. :)

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

Whoever will be the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback, QB Trent Edwards or QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, I believe that Houston will have an edge on this match up, since QB Matt Schaub is doing a superb season and he has already 16 touchdowns. With such quality recievers like WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels, it's not a surprise at all. On the offense, Houston is very strong on the passing game and their rushing game has improved a lot too, so this will be a good option for this game since the Bills D is having a lot of difficulties to top this kind of game. I can't deny how good the Bills are defending lately against the passing game, getting a lot of interceptions, but I believe that the Texans O will prevail on this one and let the Buffalo defense in trouble.

Texans D has some shortcomings and they conceed several points throughout the game, but this Bills O is not much better, because so far, they have few points scored. WR Terrell Owens is now even criticizing himself instead of his teammates, but this is more showtime than anything else. Overall, I think that these Texans are better than the low scoring Bills, Houston's passing game is very strong and their running game is becoming dangerous and therefore, I believe that the Houston Texans will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: : Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes


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Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

It seems that the Dallas Cowboys offensive unit is starting to fall in place, their running game has been better week after week and QB Tony Romo appears to have found his favorite target, WR Miles Austin, which on the last 2 games made 16 catches for 421 yards, so surely the Seahawks D will keep an eye on Austin and because of this, I believe that WR Jason Witten might have a great game this week too. With the Cowboys O playing as expected again, knowing that the Seahawks defense is having huge troubles to stop the both the opponents' rushing game and the passing game as well, I see big difficulties for them to stop the Dallas offense, aggravated by the absence of MLB Lofa Tatupu which will further complicate matters.

Dallas are quite favorite for this game in my oppinion, despite the Cowboys defense not being anything special, this Seahawks offense has done nothing too, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been forced to throw short and that has complicated a lot their points prospects. With the Cowboys playing at home and if they keep playing like they have done lately, they can win this game with a lot of points, so I believe in a Dallas win by 2 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

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New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

QB Donovan McNabb is having a lot of problems against teams that do a lot of blitzes and we saw it already against the Giants this season, so he will surely be targeted again with a lot of the Giants' blitzes, one of the good things of this New York team. The Giants despite their last 2 games where the defense has not been well, that doesn't mean that they can't take good care of the Eagles offense. The Eagles' rushing game will be only rookie RB LeSean McCoy, because RB Brian Westbrook is injured and probably will not play this game, which hurts a lot the ground offense prospects of Philadelphia and therefore the Giants defense will focus more on the opponent's passing game.

The Eagles defense are having some difficulties even against some minor offenses, so this afternoon they will have a lot of problems to stop this Giants O, which besides QB Eli Manning, has good options on the WR position, with Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, and they will surely be able to deliver some damage on the ground offense thanks to 2 excellent rushers, RB Brandon Jacobs and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, 2 very explosive rushers that can cause a lot of troubles to the Eagles D.

For me the Giants have the edge both on the defense and on the offense, thanks to RB Brian Westbrook injury, which leaves the Eagles with less offensive options, Eli Manning has a nice record on the road against Philadelphia and it is one of his favorite places to play, which is a normal thing since he has always won there and I believe the Giants will have a good game this afternoon an I expect them to win.

Pick: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

This will be again a very special game for QB Brett Favre and I think we will come out winning again. On their first encounter, the Packers were extremely focused in stopping the Vikes rushing game, so Brett Favre did 24/31 on passing, therefore Green Bay will face a major dilemma today, if they focus too much on RB Adrian Peterson, Favre solves the game, if they take too much attention to the Purps' passing game, Adrian Peterson solves the game, meaning that this Vikings O is very complete and has good weapons for every kind of offensive game.

The Vikings D is also very good, but we must not forget that QB Aaron Rodgers did an excellent game against this same defense, specially in the last quarter, but it wasn't enough to get the Packers a win. Green Bay will surely use more often their passing game, because their ground offense has no solutions against the Minny run defense.

This game will be played in a familiar territory for Favre and that will be surely another motivation factor for him, since arriving to the Vikings he has become a more calm quarterback, making the right calls and never risking random throws, because he knows that RB Adrian Peterson is at his disposal.

For me, Minnesota could have won against Pittsburgh on the road, they have shown a lot of quality during these 7 weeks and they have a better defense than the Packers, they have a better offense and they have the best rusher of the NFL, so I believe that the Vikings will win this game SU.


Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are playing much better lately, specially on their defense against the opponents' passing game, and now they really look like that team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Arizona is using on the last weeks RB Tim Hightower as a short pass option for QB Kurt Warner and that is a major complication for the opponents' defenses, which already have to worry about Warner's deep throws to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, 2 excellent wide receivers.

Carolina Panthers on the offense has nothing to offer besides their rushing game with RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart and that is a big problem for the Panthers, because right now, the Cardinals are the NFL's best team stopping the opponent's rushing game. Knowing how bad this Carolina team is on the passing game, their QB Jake Delhomme is one the worst in the league according to the season's rankings, same goes to his wide receivers, we will not see much of this Carolina offense today.

With the Cardinals playing at home and doing much better now, their offense will prevail over the Panthers D and this Carolina offense doesn't have options to complicate matters for the Cardinals defense, so I expect a home win by 2 or more touchdowns.


Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Tennesse QB Vince Young will start today thanks to the pressure of the Titans' CEO and to be honest, I don't think this will be a good ideia. When you play against the Jaguars, you should always press their secondary, because they only have 5 sacks this season and that is by far their biggest defensive problem. I'm aware that they had two weeks to adjust their offense to the new quarterback, but I doubt that it will be enough time to create the needed automatisms in the Titans' offense.

It is true that both teams prefer to play the Rushing Game, RB Chris Johnson for the Titans, a great rusher, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jags, who did 7 touchdowns on his last 4 games, which makes both teams even on this chapter. However, the Jacksonville defense is not that bad in stopping the opponent's rushing game.

The great upset for the Titans defense is on their secondary, a real mess, with a lot of injuries on that unit, and that has been exploited by the opponents' quarterbacks. QB David Garrard can be very confortable inside the pocket, because the Titans' front four can't deliver any pressure against the opposition's quarterback, and that will give David Garrard enough time for him to lead is team forward.

Garrard has been quite well this season, calling the right plays and Maurice Jones-Drew has been awesome lately, so if we have Garrard on a good day, surely the Jaguarscan win this game SU.


Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

If the Falcons defense keeps playing like they did lately, then they will face a great nightmare in New Orleans. They are being very vulnerable both against the running game and the passing game and the only way I see Atlanta to fight for the win in this game is to nullify the Saints' rushing game and mainly to deliver pressure and to sack the QB Drew Brees, which is a thing I doubt will happen today.

Atlanta offense has a good QB Matt Ryan, great quality Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, but on the last games, Matt Ryan has been playing very badly and is making several bad calls during the games and that has translated in losses for the Falcons

The New Orleans Saints have always been a very powerful team on the offense, but what makes this team really dangerous is the way how this team has found their balance. Not only they attack very well but also they are capable now of defending very well too, which has shown great results for the Saints.

Until now, stopping the Saints has been practically impossible, the ease how New Orleans has their quarterback throwing deep balls is awesome and the Saints have also been very good on the rushing game, which makes it even more complicated to defend against this powerful offense. If we take in account the fact that the Saints D has also been impressive, with a lot of interceptions under their belt and a good man coverage, then you really have to give to this New Orleans team their due credit and acknowledge an edge for this game.

The Saints when playing at home, are extremely difficult to beat, they have a tremendous crowd support and despite the last hick up in Miami, the team is in great shape and is surely one of the main contenders to be on the next Super Bowl this season. For this game, I'm going to take New Orleans and I believe they will win by 2 or more touchdowns


New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 8 results recap:

58 - Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes (10-31: WIN)
59 - Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (38-17: WIN)
60 - New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (40-17: LOSS)
61 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica (30-13: LOSS)
62 - Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker (26-38: WIN)
63 - Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica (21-34: LOSS)
64 - Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (35-27: LOSS)

SIDES: 3-4; (Week 8: -1.13 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 34-28 (+1.25 units won/64 units risked);
SIDES: 32-25 (+4.39 units won/57 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3.14 units lost/7 units risked).


I've to improve my reads, too many pointspreads (12-12) won/lost by 10 or more points on the last 4 weeks...

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 9, I've only 5 pointspreads to risk:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker;

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF): Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker;

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF): Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

[TommyGold]

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals come from a Bye Week and had enough time to study the Ravens and will surely be fit for this game. Baltimore after 3 straight losses were able to win their last game in a surprising way, still the team will have to raise their game to beat the Bengals on the road.

Baltimore's defense was undoubtedly their strong spot and was regarded as the best of the NFL, but with the transfer of Rex Ryan to the New York Jets team, we have seen a lot of mistakes done by the Ravens' D and their opponents had taken advantage of those errors. On the other hand, we have a good QB Carson Palmer who usually plays very well against Baltimore and he has good chances to do deep passes on this game with WR Chad Ochocinco as the main target. On the Running Game, Cincinnati has RB Cedric Benson playing very well this season and he has been reliable game after game.

Cincy is having a lot of difficulties on focus against average teams, their motivation seems to never be the better, but against top teams, they always give their best and on this season, they are being quite successful, their defense has been quite well too, mainly against the opponents' running game. I see a lot of troubles for RB Ray Rice to do a good game today and the same goes to QB Joe Flacco and his deep passes para o WR Derrick Mason, which will be today a risky proposition because Cincy D has been playing very well against the passing game too.

This season I consider these Bengals a serious contender for the playoffs, with an excellent defense and offense so far, as long Carson Palmer remains healthy, and for this game, Cincinnati has the edge on all the match ups (defense, offense, running game and QB position) and their home field advantage will surely help the small home dog Bengals to win this game straight up.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears

Arizona this season reminds me a New York Giants that had bad home games but on the road were able to win all their matches and the same thing is happening this year to these Cardinals, which are playing much better on the road than at home. Arizona was completely dominated by Carolina's rushing game last week, still the Cards are one of the best teams to stop that kind of offense. RB Matt Forte will surely have some difficulties on his rushing game because I believe that Arizona will surely show much more attitude on that defensive aspect during this game thanks to what happened last week.

Arizona's running game is not one of the best in the league, despite RB Tim Hightower has shown some improvements lately this season, but we all know how good the Cards are on the passing game, with a good QB Kurt Warner on the road and excellents WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin as main targets. The great problem with the Chicago Bears team has been their offense, the defense is doing their job, QB Jay Cutler shakes a lot when the offensive game becomes obvious for the Bears O, meaning that when the team goes for the Passing Game only, Jay Cutler is not cut for the task and suffers interceptions, 11 this season.

For this game, besides the home field advantage, the only edges I give for the Bears are the running game and the passing defense, because on the air offense the Cardinals are a much more superior team and I think that it will be on the passing game that a good and experienced Warner will give us the edge for this game against a shaky Jay Cutler when pressured to make the right calls, so I believe that Arizona will win this game straight up as a small road dog.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

It is a fact that both teams are having a very bad season so far, the Detroit Lions (1-6) not even with QB Matthew Stafford cannot stop losing games after games, which is understandable since is his rookie year on the NFL, but because the team has several injured players in key positions and the main absence of this Lions team is their best player, WR Calvin Johnson. Without him, the team can't score much more points and that is a bad thing, because this team suffers a lot of points.

The Lions D is very bad, they conceded a lot of points and on the road games, they are a complete mess, usually suffering around 30+ points which is ridiculous. Without Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford is in deep trouble, because the Lions' rushing game with RB Kevin Smith is not a big deal either, so we have a Detroit Lions team with a weak offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL on the points allowed ranking.

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) this season have not convinced, it is true that QB Matt Hasselbeck has missed some games, but even with him the team has been far away of what was being expected of the Seahawks this season, yet they play at home today and it's never easy to play in Seattle and they will face one of the worst teams of the NFL. Against lousy teams like the Rams, they didn't suffer a single point and against the Jaguars the end result was a clear 41-0. It's on the road games that they are completely dominated.

Why I see value on this point spread of the Seahawks is easy to explain. The team as a good quarterback and Hasselbeck has good receivers to pass the ball like WR T. J. Houshmandzadeh and WR Nate Burleson, which will surely cause a lot of damage on the weak Lions' defense and even on the rushing game RB Julius Jones will be able to do a good game, because Detroit defense is also weak against this kind of offense.

Again, it's true that the Seahawks has convinced anyone this season, but they have a good team and playing at home against the worst team of the NFL right now, I believe that Seattle will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF)

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) despite their last match has not been their best game, they had showed good performances on the last weeks. QB Tony Romo has found a new buddy to whom he can trust the ball: WR Miles Austin. He has been the key for Dallas to win the last games, but on this game the Cowboys offense will face on the road a better defense than any of the defenses they had encounter on the previous 3 matches and that is the reason why they had won those games.

The Cowboys team has a good rushing game thanks to their RB Marion Barber and RB Felix Jones, who are very strong and they always win good yards for Dallas. The passing game seems to work well too, with Miles Austin e TE Jason Witten, but truth be told, they haven't faced yet on the road such a good defense like the Eagles D, if we exclude the home loss on the Week 2 against the New York Giants, and we should not forget that Tony Romo always trembles on these high profile marquee games when it's time to make difficult calls.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) has also improved this season, because his offensive line has been able to give their QB Donovan McNabb enough time for him to solve the situation and his passes are rarely intercepted. He is doing a fantastic season and usually makes the right calls, if the Eagles' OL are able once again to give him enough time inside the pocket, Donovan McNabb will certainly cause a lot of damage on the Cowboys defense, which is nothing special, thanks to WR DeSean Jackson e TE Brent, whom will be a true danger to Dallas D.

The return to good form of the Eagles' rushing game is also good news for Philadelphia, LeSean McCoy has done good performances, but with RB Brian Westbrook back, he is one of the best rushers of the NFL, the Eagles offense will show a nice versatility and do heavy damage on the Cowboys defense.

The way Philadelphia has played lately at home and with the home field advantage, plus the loud support of their crowd, makes this Eagle team the right small home favorite and I expect them to win this game by at least one touchdown.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Finished Sunday with a 3-1 record, let's hope that the Steelers will got a win tonight. :)

[TommyGold]

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF)

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) are playing much better lately and they had returned to their old form which gave them the title last season and Denver was slaughtered by the Ravens last week, so this is a very promising game between one team that wants to continue winning and another one which wants to return to success.

Denver Broncos (6-1) are doing a great campaign, showing a good defense, both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well and that is what is giving them winnings. QB Kyle Orton is doing a good season and he has proven me wrong about him sometimes this season, because I think he is just an average quarterback, but he has been able to make good calls on the field and his partners WR Brandon Marshall and WR Jabar Gaffney have been playing very well too. Their running game is easy to predict because they only use RB Knowshon Moreno and he will hardly do anything today against one of the best rushing defenses of the NFL.

Pittsburgh started bad the season with 2 wins and 2 losses on the first 4 games but on their last 4 games the team has played much better, their defense has returned to normal, delivering great pressure on the opponent's quarterback, and QB Big Ben Roethlisberger has also improved his offense and his connection with WR Hines Ward and WR Santonio Holmes is doing again heavy damage on the opposite's defenses and even their rushing game with RB Willie Parker and RB Rashard Mendenhall are going forward down the field.

After a lousy start, the Steelers are again on top and the Broncos last week had faced a defense that always causes great problems against the opponent's quarterback thanks to their pressure, and I believe that this Pitts D will be able to do the same thing, by delivering a lot of pressure and getting some sacks in the process, complicating things to the Broncos defense. For me, the Steelers is the most complete team on this game and despite playing on the road, I believe that they will be able to win this MNF.


Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2,5 1.87 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 9 results recap:

65 - Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (17-7: WIN)
66 - Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (21-41: WIN)
67 - Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (32-20: WIN)
68 - Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF): Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker (16-20: LOSS)
69 - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF): Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes (10-28: WIN)

SIDES: 4-1; (Week 8: +2.44 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 38-29 (+3.69 units won/69 units risked);
SIDES: 36-26 (+6.83 units won/62 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3.14 units lost/7 units risked).

Winning 55% so far, not bad. :P