Tommy Gold NFL Picks

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 7, I'm leaning on the road dog SFO +3 +100 (2.00) Bookmaker against the small fav HOU -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes, but I can't have a good read for both teams on this game.

I've 11 picks on pointspreads and 2 picks on totals, so follow or fade at your discretion. Writeups will be posted later during the weekend. :)

Sides:

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek


Totals:

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots (4-2) has shown on their last game that they have one of the best offenses in the league, the unit that will play this afternoon in London for the International Series is the same when the season started, but it looks like that QB Tom Brady is improving his game week after week and so does his offensive "counterparts". I think that on this game we will see again WR Randy Moss running deep in the field and catching some express-deep passes from QB Tom Brady and therefore quickly exploiting the weak spots of this Bucs defense like they've done against the Titans last week, coupled with the use of Wes Welker on the short passes and with those tools, the Pats will be able to travel fast down the field. The Patriots D has played very well so far, despite some small errors, they have done their job but they are now still performing much better than their O comrades. In fact, the Pats O has failed much more times, not the defense. The rushing game is also doing well and New England will face on of the worst teams defending this king of game.

Tampa Bay Bucaneers (0-6) has a lot of injured players on their defense and their secondary is not a great unit either. They show enormous problems both against the Rushing Game and against the Passing Game as well, but is their rushing game defensive scheme that has shown the worst problems. The Bucs O has not played that bad, they showed a good effort on their last game, but the last time they faced a good defense, they were unable to score a single point, just remember the 0-24 loss at home against the giants, so I don't believe we will see the Bucs scoring a lot of points on this contest either..

This game will be Big Time for Patriots, since they have all the edges, both on the Offense and on the Defense, they have the best quarterback, and this Tampa Bay defense has shown so far that they have much more problems defending the ground offense than stopping the passing game, where the Pats have shown good things. This is a game for the Patriots, playing in front of a lot of european supporters, to win by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers (3-2) have a nice defense, very agressive and when they are playing really well. they are able to nullify the opponent's defense, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well. The Packers O has a good QB Aaron Rodgers in great shape and with good options for the Wide Receivers positions, however this Green Bay offense doesn't have pratically a rushing game, which forces the Packers to abuse from their passing game, which poses some problems to the Packers offense.

Cleveland Browns (1-5) changed their starting quarterback from QB Brady Quinn to QB Derek Anderson, a nice decision by the Browns' head coach by the way, since their offense started to improve, both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well, but that won't change much their fortunes, because both players for that role are very weak after all, and this Browns O is still having a lot of troubles to score points, only 1 touchdown scored per game in average says it all. The Cleveland defense has also improved, but that doesn't mean they are now a good defensive unit, the team gives up a lot of ground against the rushing game and they don't do much damage against the opponents' passing game, having a lot of problems against that kind of game, thanks to the several problems showed by their secondary so far.

On the road, the Packers are a scoring machine, they average 33 points scored on the road and I wouldn't be surprised to see them scoring that much this afternoon on the Cleveland Browns Stadium. The Packers have a better defense and their passing game should prevail against a weaker defense. I expect Green Bay to score around 30 points and the Browns should not score more than 10 to 13 points, therefore we are having value on the road favorite.


Pick: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

San Diego Chargers (2-3) for a change are once again starting another season miserably like they did on the previous years, truth is they just need to start winning to have a nice hit streak. They simply cannot lose this game and I'm not seeing a way they could lose this match.

QB Philip Rivers is very reliable, makes good decisions on the field, his passes usually suffer very few interceptions and he has good options in his offense to play with, but the team should change and start using their rushing game more often. I know that RB LaDainian Tomlinson has not played a good game this season, despite the his last performances signaling that an improvement to his good old form is underway, so he can show again to everyone in the league that he is an elite rusher, the talent is all there. The Chargers have also a good defense that can apply a lot of pressure on the opponent's OL, when they are focused in the game, something that we have only seen on their third game so far against he Miami Dolphins, by only allowing a late touchdown on the fourth quarter.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) are improving throughout the season, with nice performances on the offense lately thanks to a QB Matt Cassel playing quite well, however he doesn't have many options available on his offense to give continuity to his plays, so overall they aren't able to score too much points in their games. On the defense, Kansas City has also improved, if on their first games they look like the Ozone Hole, now they are playing much better but they still have a lot of problems to stop the opposition's rushing game and the same applies to their secondary and that translates in a lot of troubles to stop the opponent's passing game.

This is a must-win game for the Chargers and there is no doubt that they have the quality to do it, and it is now the time of the season when this San Diego team starts to find itself and playing their best football and I don't expect the Chargers to win this game by less than a touchdown.


Pick: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) have become one of the best teams of the NFL when they hired QB Brett Favre, giving them more offensive power to their offense. Favre has been terrific this seaon, he has not taken many chances and he has suffered very interceptions which is odd, because we all know that despite his quality, he also throws a lot of interceptions, but on this season he has done a very good management on his passing calls and he has taken advantage of the powerful rushing game at his disposal. QB Favre improved the Vikings passing game and with the best rusher of the NFL, RB Adrian Peterson (a player that is pratically impossible to stop and even when he is stopped, he has far better numbers than any good rusher in the NFL, which makes him a key player on the Vikes O), the Minny O is quite strong and deadly to their opponents' defenses. The Purps defense is also a good and agressive unit as well, one of the mainstays of this team in the past, however they have shown lately a lof of troubles on their Safety positions and that is their weak spot, causing this Minnesota team to suffer a lot of points thanks to these liabilities.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) are slowly entering in the expected rithym, they have a quite strong quarterback and that handles sacks without much troubles. This Steelers O has became curiously very predictable, using mostly their passing game, an option I quite understand since is there that the best offensive weapons can do the most damage. The stronger unit of this Pitts team is still their defense, very solid and strong, excellent against the passing game and even better stopping the rushing game, being one of the best on the NFL on this subject.

It is funny that both teams are showing a lot of problems in the fourth quarter, but I believe that the Steelers with the advantage of playing in their home field will not lose this game, we know how strong they are when playing at home with that loud crowd support and I think that Big Ben will exploit the safety position issues of this Minnesota defense, so take the Steelers and lay the points, i expect them to win with at least 1 touchdown of difference.


Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams

Indianapolis Colts (5-0) have been completely onfire this season and they arrive to the Edward Jones Dome from a bye week, meaning, lock and load to get more wins this season and I don't see them losing this game. The Colts O is very powerful A equipa tem uma offense bastante poderosa, they have QB Peyton Manning has one of the best QB of the league, and he has always at least 4 Receivers to whom he can pass the ball, which makes this offense quite difficult to stop, and they also have a good rushing game. The team has defended very well, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well and they have been very solid and secure.

Saint Louis Rams (0-6) have a lot of problems on their offense, their QB is weak, their offense is weak, if we don't take in account their rushing game, where they have one and only one good player, their main rusher RB Steven Jackson, because the rest of the unit is simple feeble. The Rams D is also very fragile, showing a very bad defensive organization against the passing game and the rushing game as well.

Indianapolis Colts has everything to win this game, at least they should score more than 30 points and I'm not seeing the Rams scoring more than 10 points on this match, so take the Colts and lay the points.


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

Chicago Bears (3-2) has a nice offense, but their QB Jay Cutler when reaches the Red Zone is unable to transform those opportunities in touchdowns and they have to settle with a Field Goal instead, losing precious points in the process that farther in the game are more than needed... This is a thing that has happened so many times that I've lost count... Despite that, they have a great Rushing Game with RB Matt Forte but so far they were unable to use him as expected on the red zone to score those precious touchdowns. Chicago strong point is their strong Defense, very agressive, and they are doing well against the opponent's rushing game. However, the same cannot be said against the passing game and today they will face a very dangerous team on that matter.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) can play very well or not play at all, this season they played very well against tough opponents, but against lower caliber teams, they simple appear to be a "no show" team... Cincy D has been very well so far, if we forget last week display, we can expect the Bengals giving everything on this game, because they will have a bye week and they are going to play in front of their supporters and since they want to go to the Playoffs, they cannot afford to lose this home games. The Bengals have a good QB, excellent options available on the passing game with good Wide Receivers, and a nice rushing with RB Cedric Benson, this player has been very well lately, but knowing how good the Bears play against the ground offense, the Bengals will have to resort more to the passing game, because like I said, the Bears are having troubles on air offense and the Bengals should exploit on this game this option more often.

I expect Cincy to play with enough motivation to win this game straight up.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

Buffalo Bills (2-4) will not start QB Trent Edwards and I don't believe in this team. I acknowledge that they have done good games against their division rivals, but on their last game they benefited from 5 interceptions and only won in OT Field Goal, which illustrates quite well their lack of offensive power. On the defensive end, the team has been decent, sometimes they pressure the opponent's quarterback which leads to some mistakes on their opposition's OL, but on the other hand, they show some debilities against the rushing game. Overall, they should have scored more points against the Jets on the last game and that shows their offensive limitations.

Carolina Panthers (2-3) finally understood that their strong spot is their rushing game and they should exploit it, they have a quite powerful OL and that creates nice opportunities to their two rushers to go down the field and for this game I expect them to have at least 200 rushings yards combined. Their defense has not been that bad this season, they are improving on their secondary thanks to recent return of their quality safety, and I don't expect them to have much troubles against the Bills soft offense.

I hope to see the Carolina playing as Running Football team, it is against the ground offense that the Bills D has more difficulties and if the team keeps pressing that key on this game, they have everything they need to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns, because we should not expect much from the soft Bills O.


Pick: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek

[TommyGold]

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

New York Jets (3-3) will try to avoid on the road their fourth straight defeat and they will not have an easy life on this game, because they will play on a field where they usually show a lot of troubles. The rookie QB Mark Sanchez after doing one of the best starts of a rookie quarterback in the NFL, has suffered how hard it is to be in a rookie's quarterback shoes, being the main target of several Blitzes, followed with more Blitzes, which doesn't give him much time to think, His OL has been unable to stop those blitzes so far and now Sanchez doesn't have all that time he had in the early season to make his calls and we can see that on his stats too. The Jets D continues to be very good, both against the running game and the passing game as well, but right now, the biggest problem the Jets are facing is really their lack of ability to score points in the offense.

Oakland Raiders (2-4) has a quarterback that is nothing special, but he is improving game after game, mainly in his passes completion % and avoiding the oppositions' sacks. The Raiders D when motivated is not a bad defense after all, Richard Seymour already warned that they will not play again with that lack of motivation they showed in other games, and that their gameplan has a lot of pressure against QB Mark Sanchez. Richard Seymour also said that the Raiders want to go to the Playoffs too, but on that matter, I believe that this ambition is more to drive the team down the field to have some objective to fight for.

This is a tough game for the Jets and how things are going on, I wouldn't be too much surprised if the Raiders win this one straight up, I foresee a very close game.


Pick: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) are doing a nice season, their good QB despite his youth is showing much quality by making the right calls and with great displays and the best sector of this Falcons team is undoubtedly their offense,with 2 great Wide Receivers and one of the best TE on the league, with makes this offense quite powerful and difficult to stop. Yet, on the rushing game, despite having a good rusher, they were unable so far to have good results on the field when carrying the ball, however their passing game has been enough to compensate their lack of power on the ground offense. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some big problems against the rushing game in the past, but on the last games they showed great improvements, still they aren't a great defense on that matter, but there are on the league teams that defend worse than the Falcons against the ground offense

Dallas Cowboys (3-2) doesn't have a bad offense, but is not that powerful offense of the previous seasons. QB Tony Romo loses his head a lot of times and throws the ball at random, which makes one believe that they should rely more often on their rushing game, but the biggest issued with this team is really on their defense, with their secondary and mainly their safeties playing very badly, and that is having a serious impact on the Dallas D performance, they had suffered a lot of points and if they don't improve soon, starting today, they will have big troubles against the Falcons offense.

The best strategy for the Falcons is to start the game early in the lead to force QB Tony Romo to commit the same usual mistake, which is, instead of rushing the ball, is to throw the ball and that is a great advantage for the Falcons, which at this time have the best team and are quite capable of winning this match straight up.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek

[TommyGold]

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints (5-0), have been terrific on the offense ataque, QB Drew Brees is showing to be one of the best on the the league and he shows great skill in throwing the ball very deep in the field, destrying the oppositions' defenses completely. The Saints also have outstanding Wide Receivers and a good rushing game, which is not used very often. But the success of this team is due to their defense, which has improved from the last season, playing quite well against both the rushing game and the passing game as well.

Miami Dolphins (2-3) are a good team on the running game, with several options on that ground offense, they use the Wildcat formation very well and that makes life very hard to the opponents' defenses. For me, that won't work against the Saints, if the Fins play like that, they will lose by a 3 Touchdowns margin at least, if they want to win this game, they have to play it relying more on the passing game, playing like the Saints do, and they have a good quarterback capable of throwing deep balls. The great problem on the Dolphins D is on his safeties and that is a plus for me, because I expect the Saints to crush this defense.

The only explanation for seeing a Saints -6 spread is that the Dolphins had a bye week, but that won't stop the powerful Saints O, this is a game that can have a lot of points and I expect New Orleans to win this match by 37-20.


Picks: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker & Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) are improving week after week, with a good quarterback and excellent Wide Receivers as offensive weapons, which makes this offense quite strong and difficult to stop. The Cards D is very good at stopping the opposition's rushing game, but it is also true that they are having a lot of troubles to stop the opponents' passing game. I expect them to repeat the same strategy employed in their last game by doing "blitzes" against the opponent's QB, but they will face a strong OL, which should give enough time to Eli Manning to do his Passing Game.

New York Giants (5-1) after the humillianting defeat against the Saints in New Orleans Saints will surely return to the wins. They have a very strong offense, starting with the franchise QB Eli Manning and with excellent young wide receivers, besides a good OL capable of giving the time needed for their QB to make his calls. The Giants are also playing very well in their Defense, until they faced a powerful offense and were completely thrashed, leaving too much room for the opponent's WRs, which translated in too many points conceded in their last game.

This will be a great game to watch, with good WRs and QBs always ready to score points and with "soft" defenses, which will make this match interesting, close and with a lot of points scored, something around 30-27.


Pick: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Yesterday we started 5-0 with the 01:00 PM EST games and ended the day with an 8-4.


For the Week 7 Monday Nighf Football, I'm going with road favorite previously posted:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) comes from a humiliating defeating in Oakland where they were a simply "no show" and I don't believe that they will do such a lousy game again this season. they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points, but they had a soft schedule so far this season. I think that the Eagles will use RB Brian Westbrook more often on this game, for me that was the biggest problem on their last game against the Raiders, he was rarely used on the offense on that game, that and some lack of drive and motivation.

Washington Redskins (2-4) continue to have internal problems inside the organization which is never a good thing for a NFL team. The Redskins QB Jason Campbell is under a lot of pressure which is not a good thing for the team and that is reflecting on the passing game. Their wins were against teams (Rams & Bucs) that don't scare anyone on this league. The Washington defense against high scoring teams has been very bad against the opponent's rushing game, the same goes against the opposition's passing game.

I trully don't believe Philadelphia losing this game and with all those problems affecting the Redskins, I believe that the Eagles will win this game big time, scoring a lot of points.


Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek


Weird, I'm 25-18 (58,14%) on chalk...

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 7 results recap:

45 - San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (7-37: WIN)
46 - Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (6-42: WIN)
47 - Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-31: WIN)
48 - Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (27-17: WIN)
49 - New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (7-35: WIN)
50 - New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-38: LOSS)
51 - Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek (9-20: LOSS)
52 - Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (45-10: WIN)
53 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-46: WIN)
54 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (34-46: WIN)
55 - Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek (37-21: LOSS)
56 - Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (17-24: LOSS)
57 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek (17-27: WIN)

SIDES: 8-3; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 7: +4,47 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 31-26 (+2,38 units won/57 units risked);
SIDES: 29-21 (+5,52 unit won/50 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3,14 units lost/7 units risked).

I'm winning 59,09% on chalk (favorites) and i'm winning 58% on pointspreads... Let's see if I can end the season with a decent winning percentage (55% at least) on all my NFL 2009 regular season picks...

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 8, I've only 7 pointspreads to risk:

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes; HOU -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend. :)