Tommy Gold NFL Picks

[TommyGold]

Unfortunately the line is no longer -1 :dunno:

Most lines at the time were -1,5 but those two were -1 on those outs, on Friday night:

Another week, another round, (...):

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek, NYJ -1 -110/1,91 Wagerstreet

10-09-2009 09:24 PM

Now the lines had drifted, but when the plays were release, those lines were still available. :)

POINTSPREADS
10/04 20:02 -1 -115 / +1 -105
10/05 12:53 -1 -120 / +1 +100
10/05 12:55 -1 -125 / +1 +105
10/07 10:29 -1 -115 / +1 -105
10/08 21:26 -1 -110 / +1 -110
10/09 19:03 -1 -115 / +1 -105
10/10 19:16 -1 -120 / +1 +100
10/11 10:19 -1 -125 / +1 +105
10/11 11:20 -2½ -110 / +2½ -110
10/12 08:44 -2½ -115 / +2½ -105
10/12 13:43 -2½ -120 / +2½ +100
10/12 14:07 -3 -105 / +3 -115

[GMoney]

Now the lines had drifted, but when the plays were release, those lines were still available. :)

I understand, which is why I said "no longer"

I guess I see you did post this play earlier, my bad.:thumbs:

You still like the Jets at -3?

[TommyGold]

You're not the first person pointing out the line. :wnk:

You still like the Jets at -3?

This is a Monday Night Football game, where some players feel the pressure and others are over-motivated. I would play this pick up to NYJ -6, but on other hand, we might end up with the Jets winning with only one FG, depending how well they will play in the offense and how many "scoring opportunities" they will create. We have to remind ourselves that the Fins defense was able to hold the Colts offense for just 4 points on their last Night Football game, but I believe that the Jets are capable of working thru Miami D and win the game with some nice points advantage.

Just to be on the "safe" side, if your own research points to a Jets win, don't let the line drift away the NYJ -3. Good Luck and enjoy the game. :thumbs:

[TommyGold]

Below are my Week 5 results recap:

27 - Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (WIN)
28 - Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek (WIN)
29 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (LOSS)
30 - Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes (WIN)
31 - New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos: New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes (LOSS)
32 - Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (WIN)
33 - Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes (WIN)
34 - New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek (LOSS)

SIDES: 5-3 (Week 5: +1,57 units);

NFL 2009 Season results: 18-16 (+0,31 units won/34 units risked);
SIDES: 17-13 (+2,4 units won/30 units risked);
TOTALS 1-3 (-2,09 units lost/4 units risked).

[TommyGold]

Another week, another round, 10 more picks to play:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker & Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins

Kansas City is still winless but I believe they can get their first win this week, they have improved a lot and QB Matt Cassel is starting to show his good qualities and that he is indeed, a good bet for the Chiefs. Their offense has improved as well, but they still have some problems to solve on their defense and they have to fix it in order to start winning some games.

Washington is having a complicated week, which is never good for a team, they are facing some internal (locker room) issues and they had played badly their last games, relying too much on their Home Games, because on the road, the Redskins are simply clueless. Their offense has not been well, their wins were provided by their defensive unit and that explains why when Washington wins a game, it is by a short difference.

I see here a good chance for the Chiefs to win their first game of the season, the prospect of playing a KAN ML +220 (3,20) is quite tempting, but on the other hand I wouldn't be surprised to see the Redskins to win by only 1 FG difference. I think this will be a close and ugly game and I see a lot of value on the pointspread's puppy, so take Kansas City Chiefs plus the points.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

Houston defense has several problems and today they face a pretty good offense, which has good options and the Texans will have a hard time to stop them. Houston's O doesn't have a very good rushing game but their excellent passing game makes it up, thanks to the great quality of their Wide Receivers and that is the strong spot of the Texans, but on this match they will face a defense that has played very well lately.

Cincinnati is doing a great season thanks to the balance between their offensive and defensive units, with the former showing a lot of "agression" and doing what has to be done in the decisive moments while the later has been playing quite well too, with their QB Carson Palmer in great shape after recovering from injury, with great options to choose from his array of Wide Receivers, which are performing in great manner. Besides, Cedric Benson is also shining on the rushing game, allowing the Bengals to provoke a lot of damage on their opponents' defenses. Overall, this team is playing quite well in all their departments.

Cincinnati will play in front of their audience and with the way the Bengals are playing and having the home field advantage, I believe this team can win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

[TommyGold]

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As all we know, Carolina is a Running Football team, it's where their game is stronger and they will use it again and again today. Their defense has not been quite well this season, but with the return of their great quality safety, I'm sure they will improve for this game. I believe the Panthers will cause a lot of troubles to Bucs D with their rushing game and they will win the game thanks to it.

I don't have much to say about Tampa Bay, it is for me a weak team, specially on their defense, having great difficulties to stop both the opponents' rushing game and the passing game as well, and on their offense, they are having problems to fill the quarterback position, no matter who plays, he won't give any more offensive power to his team, which has only 27 points scored in their last 2 or 3 games, since the Giants were able to defeat the Bucs by 24-0.

Despite playing at home, I don't see that as a major advantage for the Buccaneers, and historically the Panthers get well against this Bucs team if we take in account the last seasons games. With all this factors in mind, I trully believe in another win for the Carolina Panthers by 1 or more touchdowns, so having to lay only 3 points on this game is a nice value proposition.


Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

[TommyGold]

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders

Philadelphia is in my opinion one of the most powerful teams in the NFL, they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points. Their defense hasn't played bad either, but we should stress that the Eagles have spanked a lot of very low caliber teams, but truth be told, Philadelphia will face a weaker them than those faced by the Eagles.

After their first week display, we could had said that Oakland maybe could have a decent season, but after a few weeks, the reality is grim: their weak offense hurts our eyes, their quarterback is worthless, he throws at random the ball without any quality criteria to his Wide Receivers, which aren't good stuff either and even the rushing game, which should their stronger sector, has been completely out. On the defense, the Raiders have been miserable, I dunno if you watched their last game, but this team on the second half, simply gave up the game, which is a very worrying and troubling sign. Frankly, in my several years NFL experience of watching hundreds of game, these Raiders are absolutely at this moment the worst team I ever seen play in the NFL, but this is just my opinion.

Overall, I can only add that I'm only seeing an Eagles, Eagles and Eagles Big Time Win, I think Philadelphia has everything to win this game by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

First of all, this is a game of extreme importance to both teams in order to win this division, which makes this game very special for both of them.

Arizona has a good quarterback and excellent Wide Receivers as offensive weapons, and this is what their offense an really do, because their rushing game is pratically non-existent, so weak it is. Yet, the great problem this year for this Cards team is their D, sleeping a lot and unable to stop the opponents' passing game, otherwise they are very good at stopping the opposition's rushing game, put when the matter at hands is the passing game, they are completely dominated game after game.

Seattle thanks to the comeback of QB Matt Hasselbeck, has their offense immediatly improved and knowing how bad the Cardinals are defending against the passing game, Hasselbeck will surely take advantage f this fact by throwing some deep passes down the field. The SeahawksO is undoubtedly their stronger unit, with great players and a quarterback capable of throwing the ball wherever he wants to. Seattle are usually very strong at home and this is another factor I've in account to consider the Seahawks the best side to win this game.

For me, this is a game that will see a lof or air plays, because both teams play better that way, and since each team doesn't have too much troubles to arrive to the red zone quickly, I believe we'll have a game of a lot of points, I foresee at least 50 points scored in this game, so I see a lot of value on the Over, and besides that, I also like a lot the -3 pointspread for Seahawks, which have the home field advantage and this is a very important game for them to win their division and reach one more time the playoffs, so knowing how good Seattle plays at home, I believe that they are capable to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Picks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker & Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Buffalo is a very, very weak team judging by their displays in the last weeks, something that almost everyone already knew before Week 1. With TO already working his charm and doing a lot of damage on the locker room, makes this team's life quite difficult. Their defense has been bad and their offense hasn't showed anything with quality, despite some injuries and having started some rookies. So, again, their prospects are grim.

New York Jets has an excellent defense, despite their lousy display on the last MNF against the Dolphins, but despite that, do not think they don't have a good defensive unit, they are quite good and very agressive, and they will take good care of QB Trent Edwards in this game. This Jets O has showed their capabilities against Miami (which also saw their defense playing below average), playing much better with the return of Calvin Pace and from now on, they will cause a lot of troubles on the opponents' defenses.

On this game, I can only see Jets, Jets and Jets, they have the home field advantage and they need to win this game because their main objective is to reach the Playoffs and I believe that they will win this game by 10 or more points, so take the Jets and lay the points.


Pick: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

Tennessee after a season with a nice 10-0, "decided" to change to a 0-5 and probably they will extend this bad start to a 0-6. The Titans D which was their stronger unit, has been awful, and despite some important injuries, they should not been so bad, mainly against the passing game, they haven't been able to stop the opponent's offense and that is the main reason for the Titans having a losing record so far. The Titans O has showed anything yet, they are quite good on the rushing game, but their passing game hasn't got them anywhere, which makes this offensive unit very predictable for the opponent's defense.

New England is in a variable form, or they play quite well or they simply forget how to play this game, but the bad moments have happened more often on the road, because their home record shows good performances and nice wins to lift their morale. They have one of the best quarterbacks ever to set foot in the NFL and have stellar offense, I think on this game we will see WR Randy Moss running deep in the field and catching some express-deep passes from QB Tom Brady and therefore exploiting quickly the weak spots that the Titans defense has already showed this season. The Patriots D has played very well so far, if we "discount" some silly mistakes done by the younger players, which is something we should expect in the early season.

Patriots playing at home usually does good performances and doesn't let their backers down, they already had several good wins at home and I believe that they will win this game by 10 or more points against a (so far) lousy Titans team.

New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Chicago is doing a nice season, they have a decent QB, and RB Matt Forte is unquestionably the team's offensive engine that pushes the team forward down the field, winning yards after yards, which causes a lot of troubles on the opponents' defenses, which worry too much about him, allowing Jay Cutler to play some of his passing game as well, which allows the Bears to change a bit their offensive game. On the defensive plan, these Bears aren't that bad either. This Bears D is not one of the classical Bears defenses, very agressive and with a very low degree of permeability. Overall it is a good defense, but they will suffer a lot of damage against the great Falcons O quality.

Atlanta is also doing a good season, which was already somewhat expected. They have a good QB, great Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, which makes this offense one of the most powerful of all the NFL. The Falcons also a good RB Michael Turner, which is showing lately his real value and has done great damage on the opponents defenses. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some problems against the rushing game, but on the last game they showed some improvements.

Knowing that the Falcons at home are a very strong team, knowing that their offense can score easily a lot of points, I believe that Atlanta will greatly benefit from their home field advantage and win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline

[TommyGold]

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos (5-0) are doing an excellent season start, defeating the Patriots at home in the last week, defending very well on the second half, but for me Denver got the win because the Pats simply fell asleep after the break. Denver has a decent quarterback, with good stats, but I think that Kyle Orton is just average, and lucky, thanks to his Wide Receivers that are capable to catch almost every bad ball he throws and getting some touchdowns on the Broncos offense, but that is part of the game.

The Chargers are 2-2, what makes this game so important for them, more than for the Broncos. The Chargers cannot lose this game, otherwise their prospects will dim. San Diego comes from a BYE, which is a good thing, because they had time enough to rest and study their opponent for tonight and surely they will do everything to win this game. They have a good quarterback which takes a lot of chances and sometimes throws some interceptions, but he is also capable of leading his team to advance down the field very quickly thanks to his deep passes and this way, get pass thru the oppositions' defenses. San Diego also has good rushers, but they haven't played well this season yet and the team has used more their passing game.

For this game, I expect a win for the Chargers because they had two weeks rest, enough time to change what was wrong in the team and get ready for this match, which is very important for them and they also have the home field advantage, all together, I believe the Chargers will win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Below are my Week 6 results recap:

35 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (6-14: WIN)
36 - Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook) (17-28: LOSS)
37 - Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook) (21-28: WIN)
38 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (13-9: LOSS)
39 - Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker (3-27: LOSS)
40 - Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (3-27: LOSS)
41 - Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (13-16: LOSS)
42 - Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (59-0: WIN)
43 - Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline (21-14: WIN)
44 - Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek (23-34: LOSS)

SIDES: 4-5; TOTALS: 0-1 (Week 6: -2,4 units);

NFL 2009 Season results: 22-22 (-2,09 units won/44 units risked);
SIDES: 21-18 (+1 unit won/39 units risked);
TOTALS 1-4 (-3,09 units lost/5 units risked).