**NFL Week 1 Discussion*

**Stifler's Mom** · 09-07-2009, 09:57 AM

Without having really capped anything yet, Browns +4 vs Minny stood out like a sore thumb. Maybe I'm a sucker for home dogs? Or maybe dome teams traveling and having to play on grass is normally a bad bet.

I too think Minny will be a good team this year, but despite Favre, not because of him....but this just looks like one of those spots where traditionally the home dog will surprise because of the potentially poor situation for the road team.

Are the oddsmakers telling me potential super bowl contender MIN is only 7 points better than perennial **** bag CLE on a neutral field, having adjusted just 3 pts in CLE's favor for homefield? Or is something up?

Public will be all over MIN and Favre, yet the line is so low? Why not -6 or -6.5? I doubt that would change too many people's mind anyway if they liked Minny. Hmmmm....

I also WAS going to back BUF and the +10 (now +10.5), that is until Brady has actually looked much better than I thought he would in preseason, and it seems the Bills are already on the verge of imploding, firing (even though it was probably justifed) OC Turk Schonert, and promoting an inexperienced and unproven career back up QB/QB coach Alex Van Pelt to the position. Looks like just another in a long line of ass whippings for the Bills at the hands of the Patriots :puke:

Oakland +10 at home at first glace looks like a nice play to me though, and one would think Indy should beat JAX, therefore laying the -7 is in order. Same for ATL over Miami. ATL should win that game unless I'm missing something, so easy choice to lay the -4.

Still haven't gotten much into depth with anything yet, as I haven't had the time or interest, but now with the season approaching, I guess it's time to get started, lol

**Underdog88** · 09-07-2009, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

I also WAS going to back BUF and the +10 (now +10.5), that is until Brady has actually looked much better than I thought he would in preseason, and it seems the Bills are already on the verge of imploding, firing (even though it was probably justifed) OC Turk Schonert, and promoting an inexperienced and unproven career back up QB/QB coach Alex Van Pelt to the position. Looks like just another in a long line of ass whippings for the Bills at the hands of the Patriots :puke:

I do feel the Schonert firing was overdue. I thought AVP would be the oc to start the season but waiting this long to make the move puts AVP into a tough spot. One week to try and grab the reigns, establish control, and prepare for the Patriots? Seems to be a tall order.... I think in time he could be a good oc. Maybe he will be able to draw up a play that gets the ball more than 7 yards downfield. As bad as Trent has looked, just having TO on the field will open up options. Lee Evans needs to stand up. I'm of the opinion that this is Jauran's lame duck season because we aren't sniffing the postseason. Being realistic the Bills are likely to get thrashed week 1 and 3 (vs Saints). The only good thing I can think of is maybe we get some value heading into game 2, as that is a winnable one.

**birdsfan5** · 09-07-2009, 01:03 PM

IMO Carolina is a real good play. The Eagles Oline is a joke, and the defence will have trouble stopping anyone this year.:beerbang:

**hodown** · 09-08-2009, 02:44 PM

Carolina is the best homedawg on the slate imo as well. They should not be dogged here, but the public loves themselves some Philly. I can't think of one reason to back any of the other three, perhaps Cleveland.

Looking at the week's slate of games, I can't say I really like many dawgs period. I think KC and Detroit are receiving some pretty generous lines, but I just don't know if that's where my money should be going.

Also, why is Arizona in a pick the winner situation at home against SF??

**daft_picks** · 09-08-2009, 03:46 PM

Carolina line is already +1.5 now, I think they have a good chance to win that game. Other home dogs scare me, I am tempted to play Minn -4 but is it too obvious? What is cleveland going to be able to do though? Even if magically these two are even on Defense (which I don't think so) Minnesota has by far the better run and pass game. Just don't see how Cleveland can keep up.

Another "too good to be true" line seems to be dallas -6 vs tampa. In a pick the winner situation have to lean to Dallas here, tampa appears a mess. But being the first week I might hold off, books probably know something I don't as this line already moved up from around -4.5 I think.

I have Detroit +20 in a teaser, I think that game stays closer than last year's blowout, Detroit is going to be on a mission to rid themselves of last year's embarrassment. Look for Kevin Smith to have a decent game, but yeah who wants to put a big bet down on the lions? Not me.

Atl -4 seems kind of safe too. In a pick the winner situation I think Atlanta is the better team, @ home they can probably get this done.

What else do you guys see? Being the beginning of the season I am trying to lock in just a few good plays that I think are solid, hopefully small lines that will be easy to cover.

I like Titans +6 as well (homer play of course) mostly because I think that game will be close and come down to a late FG...or Titans will just win SU. :glass:

**DukiesBaby** · 09-08-2009, 04:03 PM

Starting with the pats and bills, bills offense is worst I have seen from any team in years, new o cordinator, owens status has turned to "don't expect to see this pussy play week 1". Brady and moss look tuned up especially making washington look silly.. Bad offense already new cordinator no T.O. And u have to stop pats offense, its gonna be a long night.. Say 38 - 6 sounds fair ill be tailing the pats all day...

Next game titans +5 thursday night.. Too me titans win this game out right, if they lose I think its by a fg, but looking at the bright side of things with a powerful running game and a good defense = ball control.. For steelers same thing great defense at home but ever since cohwer left the steelers there running game dropped off and they throw more... At least it seems that way, when I saw +5 I immeaditly thought that is going on my teaser +6 makes it +11 u give me a great def and strong run game like titans and 11 points I will bite all day every day... Titans were best team in afc last year regular season need not forget.. Jeff fisher will have em ready (I hope) vs defending champs...

Other leans I got texans -4 vs rookie qb with IMO absolutely no weapons on offense...

I like arizona to win by double digits over 49ers

Seahawks by dd over rams

As for totals looking at unders in Baltimore KC 2 good def and E not good off
Also undr in giants redskins for some reason just looks undr can't explain

My over leans are ATL MIA and I might be a sucker on this one but DET NO, a lot of stuff to ponder but that's what I see at first glance!

**bluedevil12** · 09-08-2009, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by DukiesBaby

Other leans I got texans -4 vs rookie qb with IMO absolutely no weapons on offense...

Agreed on most counts, but the Jets should keep that game close. The Jets run defense was great last year when Jenkins was healthy, which he is right now. If you replace Eric Barton with Bart Scott up the middle, that will help it too, so they should be able to keep Slaton in check. Revis is a good enough corner that he should be able to keep Andre in check (not shut him down, but contain him). The one thing that worries me from the Jets' side is that Ellis/Pace are suspended and they are their two best pass-rushers. I think the Jets will be able to move the ball on offense though, their whole offensive line is back from last year, and their 3-headed running attack should give the Texans trouble (Bottom 10 in rush D last year). I won't touch this one.

**Stifler's Mom** · 09-08-2009, 04:40 PM

I may sound like a broken record from last season, but Tennessee had a lot of wins that could have easily gone the other way, and going from memory, their schedule was kind of soft. Don't quote me on that though, and I'm not really in the mood to look it up. Good for them for "making their own luck", and they were a very good team, but a repeat performance of last year's 13-3 record isn't in the cards, i'm guessing, plus Pittsburgh is a tough place to come out with an SU win, and I'm hearing some who follow the Titans say they are not going to be as good as last season.

I have a hard time believing 63% to 65% are on Pittsburgh, since it seems that just about everyone here likes TEN + the points, but that's what the sites I use say.

I haven't made up my mind yet, but I am currently leaning Pittsburgh. The +6 for TEN looks really "trappy" to me, but the thing that worries me is that it doesn't seem to be "trapping" too many people if like 65% are backing PIT.

Remember, it's still in a pick the winner scenario, no matter which way you choose.

I like the ATL -4, like I said earlier. MIA will be overrated to start the season until they lose a few, because they got lucky and had a +1000000 turnover ratio last year and made the playoffs. The books have their O/U on total wins at 7. Doesn't look like they expect a repeat performance of last season from them any more than I do, and a road win vs a good ATL team is doing just that, expecting alot, imo. Sure it could happen, but so could anything else. And Chad Pennington is still a noodle arm, lol.

I wouldn't touch DET or KC with a 10 mile pole. Double digit road dogs (and double digit dogs in general) have been pretty poor plays in the NFL the last few seasons.

+7.5 to +10 dogs have been pretty strong though (STL and OAK this week). Weather that trend continues or not this year, who knows.

After reading up on the CAROLINA play, it's one I will definitely be on.

CIN looks good in a pick the winner with Palmer back against what should be a pretty hapless DEN squad, especially on the road.

I too am baffled why ARIZONA is in a "pick the winner" situation vs SF. From memory (again), the LOSER of the previous year's super bowl USUALLY kinda stinks the next year though, and ALMOST always fails to even make the playoffs.

Oh yea, the PACKERS looks like a good play against what I feel will be an overhyped and overrated Bears team this year on Sunday night. I'm not sold on Cutler being some kind of wonder savior for that team just because he has a strong arm and a hot temper. He's still got alot to learn, imo, as I don't think he did much to live up to his draft status in DEN, and plus he's just pretty much of a tool.

Looks to me like they can't get ANYONE to bite on TB. S.I. shows 81% ATS/90% ML on Dallas the line moving from -3 to -6 already. I don't think I'd wanna be the one to bite on it either. In a pick the winner spot, I can't sit here with a straight face and give one reason why I think TB will win outright come Sunday. If i think of one, I'll make sure to post it though, lol.

On the same hand, there are 89% ATS/90% ML on MINNY according to S.I., and the line has moved from just -3 to -4. I think that's a far better play, as I said earlier, and the line move (or lack thereof) may suggest others feel the same way as well. I just think MIN could struggle a bit outdoors on natural grass, and if CLE plays decent on offense and special teams, combined with a pick or two from turnover machine Favre, it might just be enough to pull the mild upset.

**Half-Man Half-Amazin** · 09-08-2009, 04:54 PM

Hey guys really havent capped the game completely but that game Philly vs CAR (+1) jumps out at me as well.. Jake is a top 10 QB when healthy. Running game is solid, Steve Smith will be steve smith and CAR D-fense always a top 5 in the NFC...

As for TB, maybe because im a Cowboys fan, i see a low scoring cowboy win... TB is a mess on offence and Leftwich had his best days in the AFC. Play that im strongly considering is a teaser: CAR +7, DAL even...

**Underdog88** · 09-08-2009, 05:01 PM

I'm liking Pitt to win and cover vs the Titans. Their 08 schedule looked soft to me as well, though they did look good. I suspect the Steelers haven't forgotten about the beatdown the Titans gave them last season, so there could be a bit of revenge at work. The Titans got full benefit of a tough scheduling spot last season imo, as it was the Steeler's 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they came out flat.

**Daws1089** · 09-08-2009, 05:19 PM

A lot of great opinions in this thread. Let's keep 'em coming. I am trying something this year in NCAA and NFL. I am not playing anything until week 2. Last year I had by far my worst weeks in both sports in Week 1. So I will sit back and get a read on these teams after week 1 and then post and play games there after. I do however have opinions still just not any bets.

I think ATL -4 is the best bet on the board. The Dolphins might be a better team this year, but I don't think that will translate into a better record. They play a tougher schedule this year and still don't really have any weapons besides ronnie brown on offense. Ted Ginn Jr. and Devone Bess are not what I would call intimidating WRs. The wildcat really limits teams to the run so unless you have a player like vick or a RB type QB defenses can quickly adjust to it. After having all off season to combat how to stop the wildcat I would think most DCs would have it figured out now. I also really like ATL'f offense. Their pass game will be tough to stop. Turner can wear teams down, but I would suspect Norwood gets more carries this year to keep Turner fresh. Dolphins will be hard pressed to win any of their first 3 games imo. @ATL, home against IND and @SD. Like Stifler's Mom said and some others, I just dont't think a road win in Atl is in the cards for the Dolphins this week.

I also saw that the Bills cut Langston Walker. This offense is going to be hilarious to watch. I can't wait to see if they have any sort of chemistry or rhythm.

**Daws1089** · 09-08-2009, 05:29 PM

I sort of think the Eagles will struggle with the Panthers too, but why is every single person on this site attracted to Carolina so much? Call me a homer if you want, but it's hard for me to say that Carolina is the definite side in this one. Jake Delhomme is not a good qb by any stretch. He is highly inconsistent and often threw for under 200 yards and multiple picks last season. Now, the Eagles defense does have a ton of question marks and a lot must be proven on the field, but it's not like they are horrible. Muhsin Muhammed as a #2 WR? Come on. I will say though that Carolina is great at home and if they can maul the eagles with the run game then Carolina will win easily. Kemeauto or however it is spelled is gone for the season and Carolina has very little depth worth mentioning behind him. Once again the Eagles have question marks on the o-line and quite frankly I don't even know who will end up starting come Sunday, but they do have a ton of weapons too. Basically, I don't think we should all be labeling Carolina as the right side in this game just yet. If the books thought Carolina was the right side why wouldn't they be favored? If they won all of those home games last year, why are they dogged in this one? I'm not sold that the books are that confident in Carolina in this one. Wouldn't the eagles be like +3 if they wanted Philly money?

**Q-Unit** · 09-08-2009, 08:25 PM

I like CLE +4 at home purely for the fact that, they have so many issues and are only getting 4 from a SB contender w/o Favre, who are now media darling SB contenders with Favre?

I can see ESPN headlines, Favre falls flat on first start.

IMO minny makes playoffs, but CLE takes game 1. I like ML here too.

I've seen it before from CLE, opening game they put up a fight.

couple years ago, at home opener they thrashed the playoff contending Ravens.

**BlackCat** · 09-08-2009, 09:20 PM

I really like the Titans with 6, thought it would be 3 so 6 looks real apealing, so ill be all over Pitt....

**NFL Week 1 Discussion*