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Tampa Bay will host this year’s Super Bowl festivities on February 1st, as the NFL prepares to crown another champion. In no other sports game, or should I say event, are the stakes higher than they are in each winter’s Super Bowl. Of course, “stakes” is a good word to use in describing the big game, as the words gambling and Super Bowl are practically synonymous. Whether its office square pools, pull tickets, or any one of a number of various side, total, or prop possibilities, if you don’t have action on the game, you are part of a sparse minority.
One of the big problems that presents itself each year for the Super Bowl game is the fact that the vast number of amateurs partaking in the festivities causes oddsmakers to adjust their line-setting policies accordingly. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. For example, by all set of figures that StatFox had a year ago, it was estimated that New England should have been favored by somewhere in the range of 9-10.5 points last year over the Giants. Instead, if you wanted to back the first team ever to go 16-0 in the regular season, you were forced to lay 12.5 points. Obviously this margin didn’t make a difference as New York won, but it just goes to show how things can change for this biggest of all football contests. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side.
The other challenge that faces bettors for the big game is that the means for successfully handicapping it change significantly from anything seen in the regular season or the playoffs up till this point. In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. With that said, it does pay off to do your homework. Nobody likes watching the game on the big screen with a know-it-all friend or family member who really didn’t prepare and is now irritable because the game isn’t unfolding as planned.
Hopefully, with all of the coverage we’re offering for Sunday’s Pittsburgh-Arizona showdown, you will at least go into the betting process a prepared and educated fan. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 42 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to get a better feel for what this year’s contest might offer. I call it “Looking back to look ahead.”
I’ve divided the analysis into a few different sections. The first one is looking at the stats generated in past Super Bowl games and how they have reflected the outcome. If you see any not-so-obvious matchup differences that might be exploited on Sunday by the Steelers or Cardinals, perhaps the angles offered there could be the golden nuggets. The second portion is past trends and systems. How do favorites or underdogs do? Does either conference have an edge as how it relates to this year’s game? Do the team records make a difference? These are just a few of the ideas I explore. Finally, the third part recaps some of the successful overall playoff handicapping angles that will be in place for Sunday. If you need even more, there’s a handy chart of past Super Bowl games with pointspreads and stats that you can take advantage of. Enjoy the information everyone, and be sure to take in all that StatFox, the Platinum Sheet, Sportsform & CPFN have to offer this week so that you’re fully prepared to come up big on February 1st!
Super Bowl Stat Angles
The teams have studies each other for two weeks, so they know nearly everything there is to know about their opponent. The players are all professionals that have reached the sport’s pinnacle. There doesn’t figure to be any overwhelming physical mismatches. Therefore, execution proves to be the most pivotal factor in the Super Bowl, more so than any other game simply because of what is at stake. Dictionary.com defines the word “execute” as to carry out; accomplish. In football lingo, this means controlling the line of scrimmage, passing the ball efficiently, and limiting mistakes. In the Super Bowl, the team that accomplishes these goals nearly always comes out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
• Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-7 SU & 31-8-3 ATS (78.9%).
• Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 37-5 SU & 32-7-3 ATS (81.6%).
• In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just three times SU and six times ATS (84.2%). Coincidentally, the last two times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last two world championships.
• Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-11 SU & 29-10-3 ATS.
• Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-1 SU & 31-5-1 ATS. In ’08, New York ran for more yards, passed for more yards per attempt, and possessed the ball longer than New England.
• Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. For those of you intrigued, the only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots, further indicating that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Like most of the other major sports, the route to become a champion in the NFL has changed dramatically in recent years. I cite the turning point as Pittsburgh’s 2006 Super Bowl run in which it won four road games as the AFC’s #6 seed to emerge as champion. Since then, we’ve seen improbable sports world titles from the Miami Heat, the Colts & Giants, the Cardinals & Phillies in baseball, and Carolina in the NHL. It has seemed in recent years that the regular season has come to mean very little. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs.
With that caveat in place, I present the following historical Super Bowl records for various pointspread, total, and scoring scenarios.
ATS and Money Line Trends
• Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.
• Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.
• The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.
• The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco’s rout win over San Diego in the ’95 game.
• The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.
• The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
• In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
• There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
• Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).
Over/Under Trends
• There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.
• Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.
• The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.
• The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles that have fared well in past playoff games and have continued to hold their ground in ’09, here are three different systems that will be in play on Sunday. If you’re wondering why the list shortened so dramatically, recall that many of the angles revealed in the wildcard, divisional, and championship rounds hinged on home/road dichotomy, and with the Super Bowl played on a neutral field, those trends don’t apply. In any case, Pittsburgh will try to capitalize on its run stuffing advantage, while Arizona will look to neutralize that edge with its prolific passing game.
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 53-39 ATS (57.6%).
Record in ’09: 8-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Pittsburgh
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 21-15 ATS (58.3%)
Record in ’09: 3-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 23-16 ATS (59.0%)
Record in ’09: 4-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
One of the big problems that presents itself each year for the Super Bowl game is the fact that the vast number of amateurs partaking in the festivities causes oddsmakers to adjust their line-setting policies accordingly. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. For example, by all set of figures that StatFox had a year ago, it was estimated that New England should have been favored by somewhere in the range of 9-10.5 points last year over the Giants. Instead, if you wanted to back the first team ever to go 16-0 in the regular season, you were forced to lay 12.5 points. Obviously this margin didn’t make a difference as New York won, but it just goes to show how things can change for this biggest of all football contests. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side.
The other challenge that faces bettors for the big game is that the means for successfully handicapping it change significantly from anything seen in the regular season or the playoffs up till this point. In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. With that said, it does pay off to do your homework. Nobody likes watching the game on the big screen with a know-it-all friend or family member who really didn’t prepare and is now irritable because the game isn’t unfolding as planned.
Hopefully, with all of the coverage we’re offering for Sunday’s Pittsburgh-Arizona showdown, you will at least go into the betting process a prepared and educated fan. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 42 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to get a better feel for what this year’s contest might offer. I call it “Looking back to look ahead.”
I’ve divided the analysis into a few different sections. The first one is looking at the stats generated in past Super Bowl games and how they have reflected the outcome. If you see any not-so-obvious matchup differences that might be exploited on Sunday by the Steelers or Cardinals, perhaps the angles offered there could be the golden nuggets. The second portion is past trends and systems. How do favorites or underdogs do? Does either conference have an edge as how it relates to this year’s game? Do the team records make a difference? These are just a few of the ideas I explore. Finally, the third part recaps some of the successful overall playoff handicapping angles that will be in place for Sunday. If you need even more, there’s a handy chart of past Super Bowl games with pointspreads and stats that you can take advantage of. Enjoy the information everyone, and be sure to take in all that StatFox, the Platinum Sheet, Sportsform & CPFN have to offer this week so that you’re fully prepared to come up big on February 1st!
Super Bowl Stat Angles
The teams have studies each other for two weeks, so they know nearly everything there is to know about their opponent. The players are all professionals that have reached the sport’s pinnacle. There doesn’t figure to be any overwhelming physical mismatches. Therefore, execution proves to be the most pivotal factor in the Super Bowl, more so than any other game simply because of what is at stake. Dictionary.com defines the word “execute” as to carry out; accomplish. In football lingo, this means controlling the line of scrimmage, passing the ball efficiently, and limiting mistakes. In the Super Bowl, the team that accomplishes these goals nearly always comes out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
• Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-7 SU & 31-8-3 ATS (78.9%).
• Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 37-5 SU & 32-7-3 ATS (81.6%).
• In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just three times SU and six times ATS (84.2%). Coincidentally, the last two times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last two world championships.
• Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-11 SU & 29-10-3 ATS.
• Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-1 SU & 31-5-1 ATS. In ’08, New York ran for more yards, passed for more yards per attempt, and possessed the ball longer than New England.
• Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. For those of you intrigued, the only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots, further indicating that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Like most of the other major sports, the route to become a champion in the NFL has changed dramatically in recent years. I cite the turning point as Pittsburgh’s 2006 Super Bowl run in which it won four road games as the AFC’s #6 seed to emerge as champion. Since then, we’ve seen improbable sports world titles from the Miami Heat, the Colts & Giants, the Cardinals & Phillies in baseball, and Carolina in the NHL. It has seemed in recent years that the regular season has come to mean very little. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs.
With that caveat in place, I present the following historical Super Bowl records for various pointspread, total, and scoring scenarios.
ATS and Money Line Trends
• Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.
• Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.
• The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.
• The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco’s rout win over San Diego in the ’95 game.
• The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.
• The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
• In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
• There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
• Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).
Over/Under Trends
• There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.
• Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.
• The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.
• The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles that have fared well in past playoff games and have continued to hold their ground in ’09, here are three different systems that will be in play on Sunday. If you’re wondering why the list shortened so dramatically, recall that many of the angles revealed in the wildcard, divisional, and championship rounds hinged on home/road dichotomy, and with the Super Bowl played on a neutral field, those trends don’t apply. In any case, Pittsburgh will try to capitalize on its run stuffing advantage, while Arizona will look to neutralize that edge with its prolific passing game.
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 53-39 ATS (57.6%).
Record in ’09: 8-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Pittsburgh
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 21-15 ATS (58.3%)
Record in ’09: 3-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 23-16 ATS (59.0%)
Record in ’09: 4-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona