How does a team do in the Super Bowl when sweeping a team in the regular season and

[Billy Barooooooo]

How does a team do in the Super Bowl when sweeping a team in the regular season and playoffs?


Had an idea pop into my head so I went back to look over the past years to see how teams do after playing a team 3 times in one season. Since Pittsburgh swept Baltimore. Pretty interesting stuff, so I figured I would share it! Only took me a few hours. This is going back all the way to 1983 SB 17. There have been ten teams who swept a series winning all 3 games through out the regular season and the playoffs. Of the ten teams five have advanced to the Super Bowl and five have not! Pittsburgh will make this Eleven!

1987 SB XXI Giants won all 3 games against Washington. Giants Win SB XXI 39-20 as a favorite over Denver, going OVER the total of -9.5/40 WINNING AND COVERING THE GAME. W ATS/Over, W ATS/Over W ATS/Under W ATS/Over 4-0 ATS 3-1 Total.

1992 Kansas City won all 3 games against Oakland! Never makes it to the Super Bowl

1994 Oakland won all 3 games against Denver! Never makes it to the Super Bowl

1995 Pittsburgh won all 3 games against Baltimore! Never makes it to the Super Bowl

1997 New England won all 3 games against Miami! New England Lost SB XXXI 21-35 as a dog over Green Bay, going OVER the total of +14/52 PUSH AND LOSING THE GAME. L ATS/Over, W ATS/Under, W ATS/Under PUSH/Over 2-1-1 ATS 2-2 Total.

1998 Green Bay won all 3 games against Tampa Bay! Green Bay Lost SB XXXII 24-35 as a favorite over Denver, going OVER the total of -11/49 LOSING ATS AND GAME. W ATS/Under, L ATS/Under, L ATS/Under L ATS/Over 2-2 ATS 1-3 Total.

2000 Tennessee won all 3 games against Baltimore! Tennessee Lost SB XXXIV 16-23 as a favorite over St Louis, going UNDER the total of -7/48 LOSING ATS AND GAME. W ATS/Under, W ATS/Over W ATS/Over L ATS/Under 3-1 ATS 2-2 Total.

2001 Giants won all 3 games against Philadelphia! Giants Lost SB XXXV 7-34 as a dog over Baltimore, going OVER the total of +3/33 LOSING ATS AND THE GAME. W ATS/Over, W ATS/Under W ATS/Under L ATS/Over 3-1 ATS 2-2 Total.

2003 Pittsburgh won all 3 games against Cleveland! Never makes it to the Super Bowl

2005 St. Louis won all 3 games against Seattle! Never makes it to the Super Bowl

2009 Pittsburgh won all 3 games against Baltimore. Pittsburgh Plays SB XLIII as a Favorite over Arizona, 7/47. W ATS/Under, L ATS/Over W ATS/Over 2-1 ATS 2-1 Total. Will they win the Super Bowl???



Review
Of the ten teams that sweep a series in the playoffs and regular season, five teams have advanced and five have stayed home. Of the five teams to make it to the Super Bowl one team has won and coved ATS. The other four have all lost the game outright. Two teams were favored and lost ATS while the two dogs believe it or not are 0-0-2 with Pushes! The average line is -2.5 with a total of 46.20. Of the 5 games four have gone over the total and one has gone under.

[Billy Barooooooo]

Feel free to leave your thoughts on this and what you think!


BB:thumbs:

[Kevin]

Pitt D will be the difference!

[Stifler's Mom]

Here's what interests me...

Pittsburgh #1 reg season D, Arizona #19. So as much as Arizona has played better D in the playoffs, it's safe to say that Pittsburgh's is still better

Now I have no actual defensive numbers to support this, and he who does can gladly correct me where I'm wrong, but here goes:

Since I started betteing on super bowls:

1999 - I ASSUME Tennessee had a better D than St Louis. They were a +7 dog, and pushed.

2000 - I KNOW Baltimore had a better D than NY Giants. They were a -7 fave and pounded NYG by like 40 points.

2001 - I KNOW New England had a better D than St Louis. They were a +14.5 underdog and won outright.

2002 - I KNOW Tampon Bay had a better D than Oakland. They were a +3.5 dog and pounded the bejesus out of the Raiders.

2003 - I am UNSURE who had the better ranked D between NE and CAR. NE was -7 and won but did not cover.

2004 - I am UNSURE who had the better ranked D between NE and PHI. NE was again a -7 fave, and again won but did not cover.

2005 - I'm RELATIVELY SURE Pittsburgh had a better D ranking than SEA (although i'm not 100% sure). Pittsburgh was a -7 fave, and they won and covered the line.

2006 - I'm PRETTY SURE Chicago had a better ranked D than Indy (although that was the one year Indy's D really stepped up...but I still don't think they were ranked as high as CHI). The Bears were a +7 dog and lost and DID NOT cover.

2007 - NY Giants had a better ranked D than NE. They were a +14 to +17 dog, depending on the book and when you made the play. NYG won outright.

What's the common theme?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Here you go Stif...Defense rankings (PPG)...

1999: Rams 4th, Titans 15th
2000: Ravens 1st, Giants 5th
2001: Pats 6th, Rams 7th
2002: Bucs 1st, Raiders 6th
2003: Pats 1st, Panthers 10th
2004: Pats & Eagles tied for 2nd
2005: Steelers 3rd, Hawks 7th
2006: Bears 3rd, Colts 23rd
2007: Pats 4th, Giants 17th

2008: Steelers 1st, Cards 28th


Looks like the better defense went 6-2 overall, and 4-3-1 ATS... :thumbs:

[Billy Barooooooo]

Well the 0-2 system says to take Pittsburgh! As always just trying to talk myself out of it!

I wish someone knew what the out come of a game was when the line opens at 6.5. I have noticed this year that the fav wins but don't have any numbers on it!

I guess I will just grab onto my balls and hold on tight cause I have no idea how Pittsburgh is going to cover!!!!

Thanks for the feed back guys!

BB:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Here you go Stif...Defense rankings (PPG)...

1999: Rams 4th, Titans 15th
2000: Ravens 1st, Giants 5th
2001: Pats 6th, Rams 7th
2002: Bucs 1st, Raiders 6th
2003: Pats 1st, Panthers 10th
2004: Pats & Eagles tied for 2nd
2005: Steelers 3rd, Hawks 7th
2006: Bears 3rd, Colts 23rd
2007: Pats 4th, Giants 17th

2008: Steelers 1st, Cards 28th


Looks like the better defense went 6-2 overall, and 4-3-1 ATS... :thumbs:

Thanks. Interesting numbers. I could have swore I read somewhere that NYG had a higher ranked D than NE last year, and also somewhere that Arizona was 19th this year, but I do trust your numbers, since I'm sure you actually went thru the time to look it up and I didn't, lol.

I am surprised the Lambs had a better D than Tennessee in 1999 too, although since the game pushed, i guess it doesn't matter either way, except of course in that the SU winner actually had the better D there, something I did not realize. For some reason I thought Tennessee was a really strong defensive team that year.

Otherwise everything is about as I expected, except I thought the Colts were better than 23rd in 2006. I figured them to be more like a 10th to 15th type D that year.

Another thing that is surprising me is that with each passing day, the % on Arizona climbs a point or two....starting around 48% ATS on Sunday night and is now up to 58% ATS & 59% ML. When the public is liking the dog who has a defense ranked 28 places behind the fave of -7, I have absolutely no choice but to play that fave.

The one thing I found surprising Sunday night is that Pittsburgh didn't open at more like -9.5, which made me a little hesitant about the fact that I felt like Pittsburgh should hammer Arizona, but now I see that there are more than plenty as far as the amount of bets coming in on the Cards, so the line makes more sense to me now, as it seems to be doing its job, and obviously there would have apparently been an onslaught of plays on Arizona at +9.5 or similar. That's why the linesmakers are smarter than I, lol, because I would have opened it higher, and apparently taken a beating with ARI money....

[Larry]

Everyone thinks the 99 Rams won because of the "greatest show on turf" but their defense was awesome that year. Kevin Carter was unstopable:thumbs:

And i'm almost positive that Pitt was a 4-4.5 fav vs Seattle in 05, not that it matters

[homedawg]

[Billy Barooooooo]

Well I guess no one read my post on the Hog Def System around here?

Every team who has advanced so far has had the better Defense!

Except last week when AZ beat Philly! Philly had the number two def!

So I guess that why the games are played!


The not-so-secret to our success
January 11, 2009


Looking for a consistently reliable indicator of postseason success?

How about our Defensive Hog Index.

Since we introduced the indicator last year, it has correctly identified the winner in 18 of 19 playoff games – that’s a .947 batting average for those of you keeping score at home.

Hell, we didn't even realize how good it was until a CHFF Troll reamed us a new a-hole last Sunday morning, after the first two wildcard games. With Pittsburgh's win over San Diego Sunday afternoon, the Defensive Hog Index has now gone 8-0 identifying winners in the 2008 postseason, after posting a 10-1 mark last year.

If all goes according to plan, the Steelers (No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index) will beat the Eagles (No. 2 in the Defensive Hog Index) three weeks from now in Super Bowl XLIII.

The performance of the indicator highlights what’s been a pretty stellar run for our Quality Stats over the past two postseasons (the two years since we introduced our full suite of current Quality Stats).

In fact, our Quality Stats have taken a bit of a beating from some of our critics this year, who pounce on us every time we get something wrong. But maybe the critics need do what all our critics do best: prostrate themselves at our feet, bow in fearful worship of our greatness and beg for forgiveness.

Take a look at how our indicators stack up over the past two postseasons against two reasonably respected indicators of success: home teams and Vegas favorites.
Home teams are a humble 8-10 over the past two postseasons.
Vegas favorites are just 9-10 over the past two postseasons.
Seven of our nine indicators have outperformed the record of the home teams over the past two playoff seasons.

In addition, five of our nine indicators have performed better than the Vegas favorites all by their lonesome – that is, in five cases the team that our indicators said was better wins more often than the Vegas favorite.

Two of our indicators (Passing Yards Per Attempt and Defensive Passer Rating) have the same mark over the past two postseasons as the Vegas favorites (9-10).

And just two of our indicators (Offensive Hog Index and Bendability) have failed to perform as well as the Vegas favorite.

All in all, it’s pretty stellar rate of success. Let's put it another way: if you look at our indicators in a vacuum (that is, if you take into account nothing else but a single CHFF Quality Stat), they routinely outperform the teams the Wise Guys peg as winners.

Oh, and if you’re wondering about the one team to trip up our otherwise perfect Defensive Hog Index?

It was the 16-0 Patriots, who beat the Chargers last year in the AFC title game. But it was real, real close: the Patriots finished the 2007 season ranked No. 7 in our Defensive Hog Index. The Chargers ranked No. 5.

So, in other words, it took the only 16-0 team in NFL history to mess up the perfection of the indicator.

Here's how each CHFF Quality Stat stacks up over the past two postseasons, compared with home teams and Vegas favorites, when it comes to indentifying winners:

Defensive Hog Index – 18-1
Scoreability – 11-8
Big Play Index 10-9
Average ranking – 10-9 (how teams rank across the board in our eight main Quality Stats)*
Relativity Index – 10-9
Passing Yards Per Attempt – 9-10
Vegas favorites – 9-10
Defensive Passer Rating – 9-10
Home team – 8-10
Bendability – 8-11
Offensive Hog Index – 7-10 (two games featured teams tied on the OHI)

[Billy Barooooooo]

Defensive Hog Index (through Week 17)
Team YPA rank NPP% rank 3down% rank AVG
1 Steelers* 3.29 1 12.2 1 31.4 1 1.0
2 Eagles* 3.51 4 11.0 3 32.2 2 3.0
3 Ravens* 3.56 5 10.7 5 33.5 3 4.3
4 Vikings* 3.31 2 9.9 8 33.5 4 4.7
5 Titans* 3.73 7 10.3 6 35.0 6 6.3
6t Cowboys 4.23 19 11.8 2 35.6 8 9.7
6t Bears 3.42 3 7.7 21 34.9 5 9.7
8 Jets 3.73 6 9.0 12 38.6 15 11.0
9t Giants* 3.97 12 11.0 4 40.7 21 12.3
9t Dolphins* 4.17 18 9.7 9 37.8 10 12.3
11 Buccaneers 4.31 22 10.1 7 37.9 11 13.3
12 Redskins 3.83 9 6.9 26 35.6 7 14.0
13 49ers 3.78 8 7.1 25 37.9 12 15.0
14 Packers 4.6 26 9.0 11 38.1 14 17.0
15 Jaguars 3.99 13 8.5 17 41.0 22 17.3
16 Patriots 4.15 15 8.9 13 44.4 26 18.0
17t Cardinals* 3.96 11 8.0 19 44.4 28 19.3
17t Bills 4.29 21 6.6 28 36.1 9 19.3
19t Saints 4.24 20 7.8 20 39.8 19 19.7
19t Panthers* 4.43 23 8.2 18 39.7 18 19.7
21 Rams 4.94 29 8.8 14 39.6 17 20.0
22 Chargers* 4.02 14 6.8 27 40.6 20 20.3
23t Texans 4.47 24 7.5 23 39.4 16 21.0
23t Falcons* 4.92 28 7.5 22 38.0 13 21.0
25 Colts* 4.17 17 8.8 15 47.4 31t 21.0
26 Raiders 4.71 27 9.5 10 44.4 27 21.3
27 Bengals 3.91 10 5.5 31 42.7 24 21.7
28 Seahawks 4.16 16 6.5 29 42.3 23 22.7
29 Browns 4.49 25 8.6 16 45.9 30 23.7
30 Lions 5.14 32 7.2 24 45.7 29 28.3
31 Broncos 4.98 30 6.1 30 44.1 25 28.3
32 Chiefs 5.0 31 4.3 32 47.4 31t 31.3

[Billy Barooooooo]

THE HOPELESS FRAUD

Arizona
Overall record: 9-7
Quality record: 2-6 (.250), -11.9 PPG
The Cardinals are a playoff team in name only, the lone club to bubble up out of the La Brea tarpit of pigskin that is the NFC West and earning a spot in the playoffs only because of that pesky NFL rule that dictates that all eight division champs be given a seat at the postseason buffet.

They're so fraudulent that they even merit their own lonely category here at the bottom of our list of contenders and pretenders.

The Cardinals are barely 9-7, they lost six of the eight games they played against Quality Teams, they were outscored by a dreadful 11.9 PPG in those eight games, and they are the only team in the playoffs that averages in the bottom half of the league in our eight Quality Stats. They’re dead last in defensive efficiency (Bendability) and 30th in the key Defensive Passer Rating category.

In other words, it looks like our preseason prediction that the 2008 Cardinals will earn the third postseason victory in franchise history will fall flat, even as the organization hosts its first playoff game since it was known as the Chicago Cardinals in 1947.

Arizona has no hope, no chance, no dignity and no business being in the playoffs.

[Billy Barooooooo]

Pittsburgh
Overall record: 12-4
Quality record: 4-4 (.500), 0.0 PPG
The Steelers join the surprising Ravens as the only teams to top two of our Quality Stats.

Pittsburgh is No. 1 in Relativity, which means that no team outpaced the average performance of their opponents better than the Steelers.

Pittsburgh is also No.1 on our Defensive Hog Index. In fact, they top every single individual indicator that comprises the Defensive Hog Index. The Steelers are the best in the league at stopping the run, at forcing negative pass plays and at stopping opponents on third downs.

The weaknesses, however, are well documented. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is dreadful, as evidenced by its No. 28 position on our Offensive Hog Index. It’s the lowest rank in any category by any playoff team this year that does not play its home games in a desert.

The Steelers also have difficulty passing the ball, as evidenced by their No. 20 ranking in Passing Yards Per Attempt. Don’t discount the importance of this indicator: remember that the Super Bowl champion 2005 Steelers, while considered a run-first team, topped the NFL that year in Passing Yards Per Attempt.

Pittsburgh’s weaknesses are also evident by the fact that it’s .500 (4-4) and dead even in scoring differential against Quality Teams. The Steelers are good against everybody else but perfectly mediocre against good competition.

They’re simply not balanced enough on both sides of the ball to be considered a serious Super Bowl contender.

[Billy Barooooooo]

Here's what interests me...

Pittsburgh #1 reg season D, Arizona #19. So as much as Arizona has played better D in the playoffs, it's safe to say that Pittsburgh's is still better

Now I have no actual defensive numbers to support this, and he who does can gladly correct me where I'm wrong, but here goes:

Since I started betteing on super bowls:

1999 - I ASSUME Tennessee had a better D than St Louis. They were a +7 dog, and pushed.

2000 - I KNOW Baltimore had a better D than NY Giants. They were a -7 fave and pounded NYG by like 40 points.

2001 - I KNOW New England had a better D than St Louis. They were a +14.5 underdog and won outright.

2002 - I KNOW Tampon Bay had a better D than Oakland. They were a +3.5 dog and pounded the bejesus out of the Raiders.

2003 - I am UNSURE who had the better ranked D between NE and CAR. NE was -7 and won but did not cover.

2004 - I am UNSURE who had the better ranked D between NE and PHI. NE was again a -7 fave, and again won but did not cover.

2005 - I'm RELATIVELY SURE Pittsburgh had a better D ranking than SEA (although i'm not 100% sure). Pittsburgh was a -7 fave, and they won and covered the line.

2006 - I'm PRETTY SURE Chicago had a better ranked D than Indy (although that was the one year Indy's D really stepped up...but I still don't think they were ranked as high as CHI). The Bears were a +7 dog and lost and DID NOT cover.

2007 - NY Giants had a better ranked D than NE. They were a +14 to +17 dog, depending on the book and when you made the play. NYG won outright.

What's the common theme?

These top rated Ds have fared well in the SB...

* 8-1 SU and ATS
* as fav: 6-0 SU, 5-1 ats. The no cover was NE vs Car in 2003
* as dog: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ats. The loss was Philly vs NE in2004

[Billy Barooooooo]

-6.5 2-0
-7 2-4-1

I like that it opened at -6.5 to be honest! Even before looking at this!

BB