Baltimore Raisins +3/ml +135
2 units ats/1 unit ml
So i guess the sexy thing to do is play "anti public" (a whole whopping 58% are on BAL....big deal), and take Tennessee. But why would I want to do that? I can't really think of a good reason. Maybe fading a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs?
I will give some reasons why I want to play Baltimore....
1. Tennessee backed into the postseason by getting their asses handed to em @ Indy who was also playing for nothing, and if you ask me their entire schedule was a tad on the weak side. Their big week 16 win over Pittsburgh for "home field throughout" was a big fat farce, as I was on TEN in that game, and in no way, shape or form should they have won or covered that game. I was lucky as hell that day that Pittsburgh ate big fat ass all over themselves.
2. Baltimore has revenge here, and it's hard to beat the same good team 2x in the same season without some good fortune going your way. I'm not making my bet on the chance i get lucky.
3. Tennessee has ?'s and injuries out the wazoo. C Kevin Mawae is out, a huge position that will effect both run blocking and pass protection, especially against a hybrid defense like Baltimore's, against whom you need to know what the hell is going on, or get blindsided. Not only that, the C touches the ball every snap, so much more chance for error from an inexperienced guy.
Next we have VandenBosch and Haynesworth coming off injury. I don't know what to expect from them, good or bad, but i'm not banking on them paying well in taking Baltimore either, so i guess whatever they do, they do.
4. Tennessee has no real WR threats that are going to scare Baltimore. This can only add to the woes of missing your center and the run/pass block issues that come along with it.
I could go on, but I actually want to take some time to look over the other sports before this thing starts. The bottom lines for me are these:
IF the books were looking for BAL money here, and had a strong opinion that TEN was a good play, this without a doubt would have been +3.5. it's not, and never has been. As a matter of fact, all week the juice was on the +3, allowing -2.5 to be bought much cheaper than +3.5 If anything, they were welcoming TEN money, imho.
And think about it, the #1 seed only -3 over the #6 seed?
I could be way off I guess, but I have not once been impressed with Tennessee this year, and I'm not going to start now when they have injuries, ?'s, and are coming off a ho hum end to the regular season. I'll take the team with the playmakers & the momentum, and see what happens.
2 units ats/1 unit ml
So i guess the sexy thing to do is play "anti public" (a whole whopping 58% are on BAL....big deal), and take Tennessee. But why would I want to do that? I can't really think of a good reason. Maybe fading a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs?
I will give some reasons why I want to play Baltimore....
1. Tennessee backed into the postseason by getting their asses handed to em @ Indy who was also playing for nothing, and if you ask me their entire schedule was a tad on the weak side. Their big week 16 win over Pittsburgh for "home field throughout" was a big fat farce, as I was on TEN in that game, and in no way, shape or form should they have won or covered that game. I was lucky as hell that day that Pittsburgh ate big fat ass all over themselves.
2. Baltimore has revenge here, and it's hard to beat the same good team 2x in the same season without some good fortune going your way. I'm not making my bet on the chance i get lucky.
3. Tennessee has ?'s and injuries out the wazoo. C Kevin Mawae is out, a huge position that will effect both run blocking and pass protection, especially against a hybrid defense like Baltimore's, against whom you need to know what the hell is going on, or get blindsided. Not only that, the C touches the ball every snap, so much more chance for error from an inexperienced guy.
Next we have VandenBosch and Haynesworth coming off injury. I don't know what to expect from them, good or bad, but i'm not banking on them paying well in taking Baltimore either, so i guess whatever they do, they do.
4. Tennessee has no real WR threats that are going to scare Baltimore. This can only add to the woes of missing your center and the run/pass block issues that come along with it.
I could go on, but I actually want to take some time to look over the other sports before this thing starts. The bottom lines for me are these:
IF the books were looking for BAL money here, and had a strong opinion that TEN was a good play, this without a doubt would have been +3.5. it's not, and never has been. As a matter of fact, all week the juice was on the +3, allowing -2.5 to be bought much cheaper than +3.5 If anything, they were welcoming TEN money, imho.
And think about it, the #1 seed only -3 over the #6 seed?
I could be way off I guess, but I have not once been impressed with Tennessee this year, and I'm not going to start now when they have injuries, ?'s, and are coming off a ho hum end to the regular season. I'll take the team with the playmakers & the momentum, and see what happens.
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