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2008.....updated 1/11/9....7:00pm....pacific
NFL 14-7-1.................+28.5
NBA 4-9....................-7.45
NCAAF 7-14..................-13.9 -
Those are the 2 best side plays this week IMO...
SD is the biggest joke of the playoffs, and their streak to gain a spot is a fraud. Peyton is going to pick that bad SD defence apart. I really think I would have layed a road TD if needed here...lol. I mean...my god, isn't SD'd pass defence the NFL's worst?
Props to Miami, but they're outmatched in their game as well...as the Ravens defence is going to win that game themselves. I haven't been a big Baltimore backer this year...but that defence could easily get them to the Super Bowl in the weaker AFC. Miami's a great story this year, but not a SB team. The Ravens could be.
I did lean to all road teams...but on those two already.
Also like Philly, and will have to back them. lol. Minny is not a championship caliber offensive team, whereas I believe Philly could very well be, and they are peaking at the right time. There's something to be said about that. I don't think anyone wants to play them right now. McNabb and Westbrook get the press, but that defence is playing lights out, and I think they will be able to stop Peterson, and pressure the Vikings QB enough into an Eagles win. I also don't see how MCNabb won't be able to pass on Minny...whether it be deep, or dump-offs to Westbrook.
The only road team I'm starting to find faults in is Atlanta...and like FF says...doubtful all 4 road teams win, and I think it might be them. Can the Cards pass on Atlanta? I think they might be able to. Atlanta has the 22nd ranked pass defence, and gave up 230 yards to the ****ty Rams last week, in a game where it mattered. Gave up 233 to a non-passing team like the Vikings the week before. I'm not excited about playing the Cards...but might be looking that way. If they are able to hold Turner relatively in check, they win. Definitely the toughest game to cap this week.....not sure what I'm goign to do there...
Looks like the public is hitting the road teams as well...
GLLast edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 12-29-2008, 04:52 PM.Comment
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2008.....updated 1/11/9....7:00pm....pacific
NFL 14-7-1.................+28.5
NBA 4-9....................-7.45
NCAAF 7-14..................-13.9Comment
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Lines are moving fast.......Indy -1.5, Philly -4, Balt -4 and Atl -2.5. I just played Indy ML -120 rather then -1.5 -110. I thought that was actually a no brainer if you like Indy.2008.....updated 1/11/9....7:00pm....pacific
NFL 14-7-1.................+28.5
NBA 4-9....................-7.45
NCAAF 7-14..................-13.9Comment
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Bolded my biggest concern with backing the Vikes, as the Eagles could have the momentum heading into the playoffs. Still I am starting to really like the Vikings here. Everyone is pointing to the Vikings pass D as their weakness, but I think it is more perception that Philly is better.... props to their D for playing good ball lately, but are they really worthy of being road faves? They were 3-4-1 su on the season, with just 1 road win coming against a team over .500. They beat the Giants on the road, rushing for 140 yards (not going to happen vs Minny). Despite getting 4 tos from Cincy, they couldn't win. They beat Seattle & SF, were given the game by the Niners (3 tos & leading by 9 in the fourth- 131 rushing yds.) Washington, Baltimore, & SF all rushed for over 100 yards vs the Eagles.
Questions I need answered....
Is Minny's passing offense really that bad?
Looking at the stats they are ranked much lower than Philly in passing offense, but I don't think there is really that big of a difference, except Philly attempts passes much more often...
Philly avg 244 passing, 6.7 ypc 23 tds, 16 ints & a 81.4 qb rating.
Minny avg 184 passing, 7.1 ypc, 22 tds 17 ints & a 81.5 qb rating.
Both teams were hovering around a 59% completion percentage, but Philly has 150 more attempts on the season. Someone tell me what makes Philly's passing game so much better?
Passing Defense stats
Philly 182 allowed per game, 19 tds 15 ints & 48 sacks
Minny 215 allowed per game, 15 tds 12 ints 45 sacks.
Again I feel these are pretty comparable stats. Minny has the advantage in the run game (4.5 ypc 145 per game avg), though both teams have great run defenses. Peterson is the best back in the game by far IMO, & the Vikings are capable of playing lights out defense.... likely to be on the Vikings +pts, ML & maybe the underChampagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...Comment
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Betus giving me +3 on Zona, & +4 on the Vikings. Likely going to be on both...Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...Comment
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FINS put up a good show this sunday....thats all!
(yes thats right, Im chest thumping)"Assumption is the mother of all f**k-ups!"Comment
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I am all about all 4 road teams covering ez.....
I will be going against me all playoffs, I am doing the same for the college bowls and am currently 8-3 up 13 units.. (fade me with me log)
also home dogs seem to cover most of the time when the public is heavy on the other side...all four games seem to go this way.
I will probly play all 4 home teams and hope to go 3-1Comment
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I agree with you guys, but I like San Diego at home.....Indy SUCKS on defense, and San Diego is finally playing to their potential..with or without a healthy Tomlinson..doesn't matter...San Diego will not lose two times in the same year at home to INDY..gonna make a big play on the super chargers..may see them and philly in the super bowl!Comment
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I couldn't agree with you more. Even if the lines moves an addt'l 1-1.5, IMO still an excellent play.
I've read where some are concerned in regards to Indy's defense. LOL. Looking at it from boths sides- I think i would be more concerned about how damn bad the SD defense is and who they are going up against next. (Knowing Peyton is pretty darn good in his own right) Indy has what most teams strive for going into the playoffs...."MOMENTUM" with a 9 week winning streak. -going against a pathetic pass D that gives up 70-80 more yards than Indy's D does. Some may say...well SD has won their last 4...FOR SURE..against teams that would struggle against the BCS top 10-(RAIDERS-CHIEFS-BUCS-BRONCOS).
I know who i would choose:
Manning/Momemtum/Vinatieri/12-4 over Rivers/8-8 and a truly pathetic pass defense.
Whichever side you go with GLTA and Happy New Year...
***Thinking about the OVER as wellComment
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Another angle that has me thinking is 2 rookie qbs in road games & are favored. For the record I think both Ryan & Flacco are excellent qbs & pretty good decision makers, but who knows how they react to the pressure of the playoffs.Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...Comment
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agree UD. I was looking at the 2 rookie qb's on the road as being the two road teams that I was planning on fading. I can see the Baltimore D however winning the game for the Ravens as the Dolphin offense hasn't been that great the last few weeks against below average teams. IMO Ryan is playing in the tougher place to play and is asked to do a little more than Flacco is. Atl will probably come out running but if they get behind early they will have to resort to the air. Not saying Ryan is not capable of beating the Cards through the air but it will be a tough task to keep up with a Cardinals passing game when they are clicking. The Ravens angle is a little different because both teams are going to try to run. IMO Flacco just has to manage the game and not make too many turnovers when called apon to pick up a first down on 3rd and long or when/if they decide to hit a few big plays. Ryan on the other hand is most likely going to be called apon to win the game with his arm. Most likely on the under in the Ravens game and the home Cards.NFL '12
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