Week 16 Discussion

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 12-16-2008, 02:07 PM

Looks like Wash is going to be a 5 point homedog as well...

I love the Chiefs as homedogs this week for sure...I'll definitely be on them. I think Miami folds in that tough stadium and against the under-rated Chiefs, and lose outright. I've called KC a joke all year, but I'm really just lip-servicing their record....in fact, they've hung tough with almost everyone, have some confidence in Thigpen, are 8-6 ATS, and I think it's the right time to back them. Miami is not what their record shows...they've won 7 of 8, but all close games over a ****-list of SF (who travelled), Buf, STL, Oak, Sea, Den & Buf again. Any decent team Miami's played they've lost (except that one game in NE ages ago). IMO, it's a close game, with KC having just as good of a chance to win, so I'll grab the 4 points.

I can see how plays on homedogs Jax, Tenn, Det & Seattle could be the right sides, as there are certain points I like about them for sure (although I won't be on them) ....but to play Oakland should be a mandatory bitch slap across the face. lol

I'm liking Dallas -3.5, KC +4, SF -4, Pit -1, TB -3, Hou -7 , Car +3

GL!

**Daws1089** · 12-16-2008, 03:39 PM

I agree on KC. Miami has been just getting by the last few weeks and I am not ready to back them at arrowhead.

I like Minnesota. Maybe this is an overreaction to last weeks win in AZ, but they are playing good football the last couple of week against Chi and Az. They get the Falcons at home here. Not having williams hurts, but he wasn't the whole defense. This game might be tight like last week against TB, but I will be taking the more solid defense and the home team here who is trying to lock up the division. That is not to say ATL doesn't have anything to play for, because they do, but holding TB to 10 pts isn't as impressive as Minn holding Az to 14 at home.

I won't bet it because I just don't really like to bet for or against the eagles, but I think the eagles win again. Skins offense has gone into hibernation. Losing to the bengals is something even the eagles couldn't do lol. Maybe that game was a wake up call, but I see more of solid eagles football. Missing samuels and jansen on the OL is going to be problems against philly. Eagles have revenge too.

I like Pitt. They are rolling and Tennessee is having issues moving the ball now. Run game will likely be limited against Pitt so Tenn will have to throw. Collins is liable to make some bad decisions once Pitt can stop the run and unload on him. This game is for all of the marbles and Pitt is the more complete team here. No Vanden Bosch and Haynesowrth is huge.

I like the Jags too. Colts still having issues with the run defense. Sanders is supposed to play but he won't be near 100%. Maybe a little let down after clinching a playoff spot last week. I think they clinched, maybe I'm wrong. It wasd nice to see a little life out of Jax too last week. Let's me know Del Rio still has them working unlike GB who completely has packed it in.

I kind of like Oakland. lol bitch slap. Why are these lines continually under 10? Texans playing great football right now and are only giving 7 to oakland? NE just gave 6.5 to Oakland last week and spanked them. NE who is better than Hou imo. Now the texans are laying the same number? I don't know. I'm sure this line will draw all sorts of money on Houston, but will it move?

I like denver. I don't even know what the spread is, but I think I will be playing it. Denver probably saw KC up 21-10 in that game and figured they wrapped up the division. Hence their stink fest at carolina. This week they gotta win and Buffalo will have a hard time rebounding form that blunder and having to travel. Over could be a good play too. I haven't looked t what it is.

I like NE. Arizona never does well coming east. NE is playing great right now and needs this to stay in contention for the division. Arizona pretty much got all they could with the first round home game in the playoffs.

I kind of like Dallas too. Their defense is playing awesome. I like the under too.

**Billy The Kid** · 12-16-2008, 04:01 PM

Seatle Seahawks +5 is one im looking at. Jets had lost two in a row before getting handed the win last week. Now they travel back west where there struggles have been well documented. Tough spot for the Jets as they played at SF and lost, back home against the Bills, now back west for Seattle. Seattle still the loudest stadium in the NFL and a tough place to play regardless of how bad the team may be. Seneca Wallace has actually looked real good the last two weeks and has 8 TD passes to just 1 INT on the season. John Carlson and a healthy Branch have provided some help in the passing game. On the offensive side for the Jets, Thomas Jones seems to have hit a bump in the road after tearing it up for a few straight weeks. Still can't understand why Leon Washington isn't getting more touches, the guy is clearly a playmaker and offensive spark but thats another argument, any like the hawks with the points

**Daws1089** · 12-16-2008, 04:56 PM

I certainly wouldn't be laying the 5 with the jets. Even though they have a lot at stake, they just have sucked lately. Seattle could definitely hang around in this game. Is this there last home game? I wonder if they will try to get a big win for Holmgren in his last home game if in fact it is the last home game.

**tdawgmd** · 12-16-2008, 05:01 PM

Agree with backing the Chiefs. They've been solid all year, particularly since settling on Thigpen and putting him in the spread offense.

I also love the panthers. 4 weeks ago I had the panthers pinned as the worst best record carrying team if that makes any sense. They are now playing like real contenders, and NYG is slumping without their playmakers. I think that Carolina gets it done on the road.

I'm still not ready to back Pitt on the road against a good team. I played Baltimore last week and still feel like that was the right play. Should've covered that one, and the steelers have been really lucky to win their last few games both at home and on the road. The titans haven't exactly been stellar either of late, but I see Pitt being due for a letdown game. Titans win in a slugfest similar to last week.

Is it just me, or does NE laying 9 to AZ seem a bit much? I would've thought that line would've been around 5.5 or 6, but 9? I think they are begging for AZ money on that one, and NE probably walks the dog in that game, because they really need it, and AZ has little to play for.

I also like the falcons, although it seems a lot of the public is on them as well. I think the birds will be able to contain AP, and the Vikes are a fairly one dimensional team with Jackson at the helm. The Vikings may be able to stuff the run, but I think Ryan has proven that he can put this team on his back when necessary.

**Daws1089** · 12-17-2008, 04:20 PM

I am taking back my thoughts on Pitt. I think I am swinging the other way now. My gut tells me tennessee comes together and wins this one at home. I would also be very impressed if pitt won back to back road games against two very physical teams.

**FlyersFan** · 12-17-2008, 04:27 PM

IMO, the 2 best plays on the board for sides this week are:

TEN +1 and KC +4

I have been on KC the past couple of weeks and they continue to be in every game and find a way to lose, or i would jump on the ML too. MIA is still a pedestrian football team and i like a warm weather team traveling to a cold weather spot. Clearly the KC haven't quit on the season from what i can see. Though Herm Edwards is a moron.

TEN +1...........bad spot for PIT IMO. Off 2 HUGE physical games at home vs. Dallas and on the road versus Baltimore and winning both of them with smoke and mirrors. PIT offense sucks balls. They can't run the ball and have been living completely on their defense. Willie Parker is a joke and they seem intent on running him a lot. Moore has been the better back all season when given the majority of the carries but that was then and this is now. I think this is a big game for TEN here and i like them off the Houston loss. I mean what has PIT done to be a road favorite? They are compeletely one dimensional with that dimension being their defense. I like TEN running game much better and as far as im concerned Collins and Rothlessberger you can flip a coin on those 2 passing games.

**Daws1089** · 12-17-2008, 04:30 PM

good points FlyerFan.

Also, some sharp money coming in on Az. line is down to -7.5...

I wonder what they weather will be like in that one?

**Billy The Kid** · 12-17-2008, 04:50 PM

Im about 40 mins south of Foxboro Daws and the weather here has sucked. 60 degrees two days ago then 30 yesterday with snow showers this morning. Weekend forecast calls for snow showers throughout the weekend with temps in the 30's around game time. First lean was on Arizona +9 but hate playing against the Pats and it will prob be a Pats play or no play for me depending on how low the line drops. Arizona comming west-east but so are the Patriots after playing Seattle and Oakland and staying out on the west coast for two weeks. NE weather obviously tough and the Cardinals struggle running the ball but the pats can't stop the pass. Left tackle Matt Light didn't practice today, either did his back up Mark Lavoir

**Ming the Merciless** · 12-18-2008, 04:54 AM

Beware, the Donks play terrible against bad teams, and I think Buffalo is a lot better.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 12-18-2008, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by Ming the Merciless

Beware, the Donks play terrible against bad teams, and I think Buffalo is a lot better.

Well, I wouldn't be taking Buffalo either...team has quit, injuries galore on defence, and who's starting QB...an NFL Europe guy or JP Loseman? Ouch. Not sure if Edwards will be ready...and if he is, probably less than 100%.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 12-18-2008, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by FlyersFan

TEN +1...........bad spot for PIT IMO. Off 2 HUGE physical games at home vs. Dallas and on the road versus Baltimore and winning both of them with smoke and mirrors. PIT offense sucks balls. They can't run the ball and have been living completely on their defense. Willie Parker is a joke and they seem intent on running him a lot. Moore has been the better back all season when given the majority of the carries but that was then and this is now. I think this is a big game for TEN here and i like them off the Houston loss. I mean what has PIT done to be a road favorite? They are compeletely one dimensional with that dimension being their defense. I like TEN running game much better and as far as im concerned Collins and Rothlessberger you can flip a coin on those 2 passing games.

When did the best defence in the NFL, and maybe the best defence in the past 10 years become a bad thing? lol.

Yeah, FF... I guess I see that the opposite way, as I am backing the Steelers BECAUSE of that defense. They are dominating people, and I don't just see how the Titans are going to be able to do anything against them, when the Steelers defense has shut down better squads. This Tenn team put up 12 measly points against a very average Houston defence last week, and their previous loss scored 13 on NYJ...so we're not exactly talking about an explosive group recently. They've been putting up points on a few bad teams lately, that's about it.

What has Pitt done to deserve being a road fave? How about winning 7 of 8 on the road, holding opponents to 11 PPG? :dunno:

As for their offence...they are still getting it done...simple as that, and they were up against another pretty good D in the Ravens last week. Before that they had been putting up points. They are hanging around games because of the defense, and then Ben is rallying the offense in the second half and winning games. Pitt's offense has been great in the 2nd half of games recently. Add that to the fact that the Steelers might have some success this week against the Titans defence that is missing maybe their two best players, and run-stoppers in Haynesworth and Kvb, and I'm thinking the Steelers have a better chance of moving the ball than the Titans certainly do.

I just think the offenses are about a push, and the Steelers have a much better defense, especcialy this week. Titans have been living off their early season success, and the unbeaten streak is still apart of their "rep", but they haven't done much in weeks IMO. Loss to Hou. Wins over jokes Cle & Det. Loss to NYJ. Close wins over GB, Jax & Chi, where they could have easily lost. I just think they aren't the better team here, and this late in the season, the cream is rising to the top.

**FlyersFan** · 12-18-2008, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

When did the best defence in the NFL, and maybe the best defence in the past 10 years become a bad thing? lol.

Yeah, FF... I guess I see that the opposite way, as I am backing the Steelers BECAUSE of that defense. They are dominating people, and I don't just see how the Titans are going to be able to do anything against them, when the Steelers defense has shut down better squads. This Tenn team put up 12 measly points against a very average Houston defence last week, and their previous loss scored 13 on NYJ...so we're not exactly talking about an explosive group recently. They've been putting up points on a few bad teams lately, that's about it.

What has Pitt done to deserve being a road fave? How about winning 7 of 8 on the road, holding opponents to 11 PPG? :dunno:

As for their offence...they are still getting it done...simple as that, and they were up against another pretty good D in the Ravens last week. Before that they had been putting up points. They are hanging around games because of the defense, and then Ben is rallying the offense in the second half and winning games. Pitt's offense has been great in the 2nd half of games recently. Add that to the fact that the Steelers might have some success this week against the Titans defence that is missing maybe their two best players, and run-stoppers in Haynesworth and Kvb, and I'm thinking the Steelers have a better chance of moving the ball than the Titans certainly do.

I just think the offenses are about a push, and the Steelers have a much better defense, especcialy this week. Titans have been living off their early season success, and the unbeaten streak is still apart of their "rep", but they haven't done much in weeks IMO. Loss to Hou. Wins over jokes Cle & Det. Loss to NYJ. Close wins over GB, Jax & Chi, where they could have easily lost. I just think they aren't the better team here, and this late in the season, the cream is rising to the top.

yeah...points taken...but i have done extremely well with my top couple thoughts each week and im sticking with TEN. Part of handicapping is looking inside a matchup. Not easy to play DAL and BAL B2B and then keep getting up for games week after week, especially when you're winning. I am not making my play based on a fraudulent TEN team that went 141-0 to start the season. Just some intangibles i like.

and as far as your next question which is probably coming....lol.... as to why then don't i post my plays. i have posted my thoughts in this thread a few different weeks and it doesn't seem to do much, and quite frankly people are going to play what they are going to play anyway. i was doing well in totals each week for a couple of weeks and i would look and i was the only one on those....i was like what's the point of posting them....not like i don't have 4 million other things going on in my life right now........i'm almost at the point where i think posting plays is a waste in anything. all it is is a bunch of "yeah, GL!..on it with you or opposites or something like that".

so anyway, GL!....with your Steelers play. Maybe in the end you are right and i do agree that having a good D is important. I just like the spot for TEN and as i've said i've been doing well with my top couple plays each week.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 12-18-2008, 03:09 PM

You gotta go with it FF....GL! :thumbs:

Week 16 Discussion