Week 15 Discussion

[Daws1089]

I have some free time so I'll get this going...


For the thursday game I like NO +3. I think the saints are playing pretty good right now and the Bears defense is not one that I think the Saints will be slowed down by. I'm not sure of the weather for thursday night, but unless its really windy or snowey I like the saints to continue running the ball and throwing. Bears pass defense is really bad imo. Maybe Bush can be more of a factor this week. Forte poses a potential issue I think, but the Saints will just try to outscore the Bears.



I actually like JAX +1 at home here. I think GB knows they are out of it and could have that hangover going into Jax. GB defense is really really bad right now. Letting up over 500 yards of offense to Houston? They have issues. After seeing what CAR did to them on the ground as well as Houston, I can't help but think Jax might do similar things especially at home. Not sure Favre would have this team in any different of a position as their issues have really been on defense for the last month or so.


Dare I say it but I like the Bengals +6.5? Skins have major issues on offense as do the Bengals so this may end up being a better under play, but Now that Samuels is out and Jansen is injured I have to wonder how the Skins will move the ball. If it weren't for 2 defensive scores by the colts last week, the Bengals sort of hung tough, but I guess that's what you get with Cincy. Bad teams make bad mistakes and I might have just talked myself into the under.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Like NO too. They've sucked on the road...but the Bears are vulnerable against the pass (ranked 28th), and I think Brees throws all over them.

Don't see how anyone can back the Jags. They've given up, and I wouldn't play them unless they were getting a whack of points. Certainly not in a pickem. Yeah....GB's defence has been giving up yards, but they have been in games all year long in a tough schedule...losing 5 games this year by 4 points or less. A couple bounces their way, and they are in playoff contention. GB's losses (again most of them close) were also against playoff caliber teams... Dal/TB/Atl/Ten/Min/NO/Car/Hou. Save the NO loss, GB was competitive in every one of those losses against all good teams. Jags are far from that quality, and one of the bottom 5 teams in the league. They are rarely competitive this year, save one game against Deroit. lol. They've also given up on their season, and their coach. Garrard's favourite receiver, Matt Jones is also gone, as his suspension kicks in this week. Home field advantage? Jags 1-5 at home. GB might have a suspect defence, but at least they can score. Jags are brutal on both sides of the ball. I agree with the public in this one. Jags are toast.

Also agree with the public with NE. Pick a winner against Oak....I'll bite. They failed to cover the west coast road game last week, but will this week IMO. I know I'll be called a square and all...lol...but I'll pick the winner. The books have been wrong on a ton of these so called "trap" games this year. Many will fade NE here only because it's this mysterious "trap". Not me...I'll bite.

Also like homedog Houston...and road dog Pittsburgh. Thats it so far.


:dunno:

[Daws1089]

hmmm maybe it would be better just to stay away from the jax/gb game.

[Underdog88]

I love the Titans this week. I think despite Texans having revenge and looking very solid the past couple weeks, the Titans win this by 7+. Titans continue to get no respect because of their style of play, but they win. Look at Houston vs the top AFC defenses. IMO the Texans are outclassed here...no match for the Titans. I also have a hard time seeing the Texans winning the turnover battle, which is very important in these divisional games. Both teams should have a solid run game going, kind of lean over. I'm pretty sure I'm biting on the short line...


Last week homedogs were 3-0. I'll be looking at every other homedog this week as a potential play. I figured there would be a correction after a whole season of road faves covering- I think even blanket playing homedogs the rest of the season could turn a profit. More thoughts on homedogs in a bit...

[Daws1089]

once again my favorite team lol SD is laying pts this week.This time they are on the road and @ arrowhead. Cheifs have revenge and could beat SD imo. Chargers got right last week with their beat down on oakland and have had extra time off, but I still trust that team about as much as masterL. lol.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Homedogs:

Jags +2

Bungles +6.5

Texans +3

Chiefs +5.5

Raiders +7


The usual suspects...

[Furashu]

Pittsburgh looks good at +2
with mcgahee hurt, ray rice hurt and slow mcclain, itll be up to flacco to win the game and... i dont think hell be able to doit.

Ravens can win if Big ben fumbles and throws dumb passes... but i dont think the ravens unit will score any pts on pittsburgh even though they are at home.

I think the wrong team is favored in the Saints vs Bears game. I know the saints are bad vs the run and suck on the road, but bears defense sucks. JAX's offense is terrible so it looks like the bears def is doing work but they really arent.

i think the titans line is a gift and everyone is overreacting to texans two wins. One vs a horrible jax team and one vs gb whos defense sucks vs the run and their mlb barnett is out for the season. Texans did not dominate either game and won because the other team screwed up.

[hodown]

Well I dont see how the wrong team is favored when Chicago is 4-2 at home and NO is 1-5 on the road. And were dealing with a dome team in potential freezing temps. Its an absolute must win game for both teams, but I would not back NO on the road in this game, even if Chicago's pass def is that bad.

Detroit giving 17 looks like a whole lot. I think the Colts just try to get by here, especialy with Addai banged up and a big conference road game next week.

I like Dallas at home in a must win game, and perhaps no Jacobs here. Dallas defense has really picked it up since Phillips taking over playcalling.

Miami in a pick the winner with no Gore looks pretty good as well. Pats get it done too

[Daws1089]

matt cassel's dad died and he has left the team.....

[PhillyFan3]

I like Houston this week out of the homedawgs.....

I think Houston's offense is going to take this one for the Texans, I think with home-field, momentum carrying from their late season surge, and this team is legit when Schaub is in the lineup and he has weapons all over the place in slaton, johnson, walter, daniels....I know Tennessee has been great, but I think their offense has been a little too erratic and will have problems keeping up with the Houston offense....24-20 Texans upset

the line also looks very similar to NYJ-SF one last week, gonna wait and try and get 4...

I'm also looking at TB +3, I'm inclined to think this team should be able to bounce back after getting embarassed, TB knows if they win this week, they basicly are clinching a playoff spot, I dont think Gruden lets his team lose this one too...The TB defense is too good to get embarassed 2 weeks in a row, and this is going to be a tough game on a young ATL team since there are playoff implications on the line, I just think TB takes this one late....16-13 BUCS

[hodown]

Agree with TB. For some reason I think Atl folds in the playoff race and Dallas sneaks in.

[Daws1089]

philly sneaks in...:beerbang:

[bookiekilla]

Dallas and Philly aren't sneaking in anywhere....




























































































































GO FALCONS!
:beerbang:

[Daws1089]

I like under 44.5 in the colts/lions game for a few reasons.

1. the lions have zero confidence and play that way every week. Even if culpeppers doesn't play or they start someone else I don't see them moving the ball anyway.

2. Indy just wants to win this game. They are not out to rub it in that they can kill the lions and I think we will see a ton of running and they will just do what they need to to win. Addai most likely won't play and I am sure indy doesnt want any other starters to get hurt in a meaningless game like this.

3. 44.5 is a pretty high number imo and even if its 34-10 or 31-7 or even 34-0 it is all under the number. I think the lions would need to put up 17 for this game to go over the total as the colts imo will just do the necessary to win this one. Only thing that scares me is like 2 colts INTs for touchdowns but that happened last week and the total still went under.

having said the scores I mentioned I do think +17.5 could be the right side, but i cant play detroit and won't play indy either.

[dwd14]

New orleans looks good to me as well as pittsburgh. chicago doesnt have the defense to stop brees so i can see him putting some points on the board. i like pitt for all the reasons everyone else does. they have a great D and a solid running game. big ben manages the game and can come up with a big play when they need it. this ravens steelers game is a big rivalry but i still think the steelers are the better team.