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not much discussion this week.....
I think pittsburgh beats dallas. Dallas might seem like they are rolling now but who are the beating? the 9ers, seahawks and now everything is fine? Their offensive line will struggle with pitts 3-4. Even if romo is mobile I don't think he gets out of this game with less than 2 sacks and 1 int. Pitt has the outdoor advtantage too I will probably be laying the 3 there. Lean to the under too.
Its interesting to see the public backing the packers but the line keeps shrinking. We're down to -6 from -7. Usually off of a mnf win that team is a decent fade and especially since houston is coming to wintery lambeau, but sharps are on houston i guess?Comment
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Could the books be begging for any more money on NE by hanging that -4.5 out there? Jeez. Line is not moving at all. I suspect it will be raining in seattle as thats what it usually does there. I just can't back NE in that one.Comment
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Weird week
Going into this week I decided to look at the lines with the following assumptions...
1. This is the beginning of the time in the NFL when the teams can be divided into the halves, and the have nots, those teams that are still in the hunt and motivated, and those that are not, and...
2. Weather is now a prime factor in the games, and the totals...so always look at the weather before playing any angle of any game...
In looking at the public money this week, there are some shady and odd things going on...
-10 teams are being backed by over 68 percent of the public this week as of 9pm Fri Night-
-In those 10 games, the line has responded in 1 of them...the NE game, and gone in the opposite direction in the Giants game (Giants being bet at 68 percent, line has fallen to -7 from -9 or -9.5)
In the other 8, the books seem content to take the non-heavy side...
-These heavy public plays are Indy -14 (74%), Bears -6.5(82%), Packers -6(74%), Titans -14(81%), Detroit +9.5(82%), Baltimore -5, (75%), Jets -3.5(87%), Arizona -14(76%), New England -4.5(93%)-
-Of these games the public is with the favorite in 9 of 10, except the DET game however...
I haven't seen the Detroit line on my book since the Williams brothers news came out (and the info may be wrong on it, or have a small sample size), and the NE line has been pulled as well...
I'll be waiting till Sunday morning and looking for any weird weather, and taking dogs in any game I feel does not fit the have vs the have-not games, if these percentages hold up...I mean, the public can win sometimes, but I don't like seeing all these lines holding steady...
Just my two cents, GL ALL!!! :beerbang:Comment
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One play the public IMO has correct is Baltimore .
At home Sunday night they are 9-3 ATS Ray will have the dogs barking and Portis
a very tough back is hurt Neck Ribs Knee Baltimore is banged up in the secondary
but Jason Cambell doesn't scare me Lay the 5.5 points IMO
:beer2:NFL 8-5 + 5.97
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.Comment
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