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LAST WEEK
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (1-1)(-020 units)
Regular Plays (3-0)(+3.00 units)
Overall (5-2)(+2.50 units)
FOR THE SEASON
Best Bets (9-12)(-12.60 units)
Strong Plays (18-9)(+16.20 units)
Regular Plays (33-20)(+11.00 units)
Overall (60-41)(+14.60 units)
NFL WEEK 13
Week twelve was another week that I did not win big, but I did not lose either. I split my best bets and strong plays and it was my 3-0 in regular plays that allowed me to have a winning week. Still holding my own in the NFL, so I am very, very pleased. On to week thirteen.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27th
Tennessee -11 vs Detroit (regular play)……………….Detroit used to be an automatic play for me on Thanksgiving, but no more. This team should not even be playing anymore on Thanksgiving. Detroit is just plain horrible and Tennessee is very solid coming off a loss to the Jets. Always tough to win on the road in the NFL, but I just don’t see Detroit scoring many points at all in this one. I think if Tennessee scores 21, and they should, that might be enough to get a cover here. The only reason I am making this a regular play and not a strong or best bet is you never know about that Thanksgiving Day magic with Detroit.
Dallas -12 ½ vs Seattle (strong play)…………….Most years I tend to play underdogs on Turkey Day, but again we have a horrible team playing at Dallas. Dallas feels like the season just started as they have their players back and finally look like a team who can go to the Superbowl. Dallas is probably the only team that has a chance to beat the Giants in the NFC and I get the crazy feeling they will and play in the Superbowl. Everybody a couple of weeks ago was saying how horrible Dallas was. Where are those people now. I actually hate the Cowboys, but I am smart enough to realize the talent they have.
Arizona +3 vs Philadelphia (strong play)……………..The Eagles are on the downswing. McNabb and their Coach might both be gone soon. They are living and existing on the past. Arizona needs to prove they can win on the road and I think they bring their A-game after losing at home last week to the Giants. Two teams headed in opposite directions. Even though at Philly, wrong team favored in this one.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30th
Denver +8 vs NY Jets (best bet)………………..I am a Dolphins fan and the Jets are getting on my nerves. I still don’t think they are the great team that everybody thinks. Jets mangle Tennessee last week, Denver gets mangled at home by OAKLAND, so shouldn’t this line be like 13-14 points. I just have a strong feeling Denver gives the Jets all they can handle this week and the Jets will be lucky to win. Hard to pass up Cutler and the Broncos offense getting more than a TD. Very strong gut feeling on this one.
San Diego -5 vs Atlanta (best bet)………….Again I am going with a strong gut feeling in this one. Most of the time I don’t have numbers and stats to back my plays. I am not a big believer in trends and things like that either. Again Atlanta very much improved, just like the Dolphins who got killed last week at home. I love Atlanta’s QB and wish Miami would have drafted him, but Atlanta is good, but not great or at least not as great as people think. I know the Chargers are not as bad as their record. They have lost a ton of close games this year. They are due to put it all together and win one going away. Atlanta not the same team on the road and I think this is the perfect spot for Atlanta to get blown out. Call me crazy but I don’t think this game will be close.
Colts -4 ½ vs Cleveland (strong play)…………..Cleveland is just a bad team and playing at home can sometimes be a disadvantage when not playing well. They had some hope when Quinn was starting, but he is done for the year. Colts finally doing what they can do and this game should get out of control unless Cleveland gets a bad snow storm this weekend. I almost made this a best bet and the only reason I didn’t is my best bets are not doing that well this year and I did not want to have three of them this week.
Green Bay -3 vs Carolina (strong play)……………..Only reason this line is low is because the Packers got blown out Monday night. You also have to wonder why a team with a losing record is favored over a team with such a good record. Games like this usually go to the favorite. Home field advantage I feel is huge is this one and will be the difference. Pack by at least 7.
Tampa Bay -3 ½ vs New Orleans (regular play)………………After Monday night you have to wonder how the Saints are getting more than a field goal with their offense. Again those people who make the lines know what they are doing. Like the Packer game above, home field is huge and will make the difference. Won’t be an easy win, but I do see the Bucs winning by 6-7 points.
New England -1 vs Pittsburgh (regular play)………….Sort of forcing this one, but I know in my area this will be the TV game and I plan on eating and having a few drinks all weekend. Hard not to have a little something too on such a great match up. Being a Dolphins fan I would not be too upset dropping a unit if the Patriots lose.
Miami/St Louis………….None of my books have a line on this yet. I did see a line somewhere and I think it was 7 ½ . If I can get 7 ½ I am taking St Louis plus the points for a regular play. If it is 7 or less I am taking a pass. Some of Miami’s magic is gone. They got pounded last week at home and the two weeks before that they barely won games against horrible teams. For a team playing like they are playing right now, laying more than a TD on the road is not a very smart bet. This is a game they should win, but it won’t be easy.
I am leaning towards Minnesota over Chicago in the Sunday night game, but will wait until sometime on Sunday to post it if I play.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 1st
Jacksonville/Houston………….I have not made up my mind on this one yet. If I play it I will be back sometime on Monday to post this play. Really a lousy Monday night game. Lean towards Houston at the moment.
I went a little crazy in college and pro this weekend and probably played too many games, but I just love betting this week every year…win or lose.
Probably be back later on this week with those night games. Good Luck Everybody!!
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (1-1)(-020 units)
Regular Plays (3-0)(+3.00 units)
Overall (5-2)(+2.50 units)
FOR THE SEASON
Best Bets (9-12)(-12.60 units)
Strong Plays (18-9)(+16.20 units)
Regular Plays (33-20)(+11.00 units)
Overall (60-41)(+14.60 units)
NFL WEEK 13
Week twelve was another week that I did not win big, but I did not lose either. I split my best bets and strong plays and it was my 3-0 in regular plays that allowed me to have a winning week. Still holding my own in the NFL, so I am very, very pleased. On to week thirteen.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27th
Tennessee -11 vs Detroit (regular play)……………….Detroit used to be an automatic play for me on Thanksgiving, but no more. This team should not even be playing anymore on Thanksgiving. Detroit is just plain horrible and Tennessee is very solid coming off a loss to the Jets. Always tough to win on the road in the NFL, but I just don’t see Detroit scoring many points at all in this one. I think if Tennessee scores 21, and they should, that might be enough to get a cover here. The only reason I am making this a regular play and not a strong or best bet is you never know about that Thanksgiving Day magic with Detroit.
Dallas -12 ½ vs Seattle (strong play)…………….Most years I tend to play underdogs on Turkey Day, but again we have a horrible team playing at Dallas. Dallas feels like the season just started as they have their players back and finally look like a team who can go to the Superbowl. Dallas is probably the only team that has a chance to beat the Giants in the NFC and I get the crazy feeling they will and play in the Superbowl. Everybody a couple of weeks ago was saying how horrible Dallas was. Where are those people now. I actually hate the Cowboys, but I am smart enough to realize the talent they have.
Arizona +3 vs Philadelphia (strong play)……………..The Eagles are on the downswing. McNabb and their Coach might both be gone soon. They are living and existing on the past. Arizona needs to prove they can win on the road and I think they bring their A-game after losing at home last week to the Giants. Two teams headed in opposite directions. Even though at Philly, wrong team favored in this one.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30th
Denver +8 vs NY Jets (best bet)………………..I am a Dolphins fan and the Jets are getting on my nerves. I still don’t think they are the great team that everybody thinks. Jets mangle Tennessee last week, Denver gets mangled at home by OAKLAND, so shouldn’t this line be like 13-14 points. I just have a strong feeling Denver gives the Jets all they can handle this week and the Jets will be lucky to win. Hard to pass up Cutler and the Broncos offense getting more than a TD. Very strong gut feeling on this one.
San Diego -5 vs Atlanta (best bet)………….Again I am going with a strong gut feeling in this one. Most of the time I don’t have numbers and stats to back my plays. I am not a big believer in trends and things like that either. Again Atlanta very much improved, just like the Dolphins who got killed last week at home. I love Atlanta’s QB and wish Miami would have drafted him, but Atlanta is good, but not great or at least not as great as people think. I know the Chargers are not as bad as their record. They have lost a ton of close games this year. They are due to put it all together and win one going away. Atlanta not the same team on the road and I think this is the perfect spot for Atlanta to get blown out. Call me crazy but I don’t think this game will be close.
Colts -4 ½ vs Cleveland (strong play)…………..Cleveland is just a bad team and playing at home can sometimes be a disadvantage when not playing well. They had some hope when Quinn was starting, but he is done for the year. Colts finally doing what they can do and this game should get out of control unless Cleveland gets a bad snow storm this weekend. I almost made this a best bet and the only reason I didn’t is my best bets are not doing that well this year and I did not want to have three of them this week.
Green Bay -3 vs Carolina (strong play)……………..Only reason this line is low is because the Packers got blown out Monday night. You also have to wonder why a team with a losing record is favored over a team with such a good record. Games like this usually go to the favorite. Home field advantage I feel is huge is this one and will be the difference. Pack by at least 7.
Tampa Bay -3 ½ vs New Orleans (regular play)………………After Monday night you have to wonder how the Saints are getting more than a field goal with their offense. Again those people who make the lines know what they are doing. Like the Packer game above, home field is huge and will make the difference. Won’t be an easy win, but I do see the Bucs winning by 6-7 points.
New England -1 vs Pittsburgh (regular play)………….Sort of forcing this one, but I know in my area this will be the TV game and I plan on eating and having a few drinks all weekend. Hard not to have a little something too on such a great match up. Being a Dolphins fan I would not be too upset dropping a unit if the Patriots lose.
Miami/St Louis………….None of my books have a line on this yet. I did see a line somewhere and I think it was 7 ½ . If I can get 7 ½ I am taking St Louis plus the points for a regular play. If it is 7 or less I am taking a pass. Some of Miami’s magic is gone. They got pounded last week at home and the two weeks before that they barely won games against horrible teams. For a team playing like they are playing right now, laying more than a TD on the road is not a very smart bet. This is a game they should win, but it won’t be easy.
I am leaning towards Minnesota over Chicago in the Sunday night game, but will wait until sometime on Sunday to post it if I play.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 1st
Jacksonville/Houston………….I have not made up my mind on this one yet. If I play it I will be back sometime on Monday to post this play. Really a lousy Monday night game. Lean towards Houston at the moment.
I went a little crazy in college and pro this weekend and probably played too many games, but I just love betting this week every year…win or lose.
Probably be back later on this week with those night games. Good Luck Everybody!!