Week 12 Discussion

**Underdog88** · 11-18-2008, 01:41 PM

Wow just had a half hour of thoughts erased on me. :bang:

Basically I expect a correction in homedogs at some point this season. I am not in the business of playing homedogs just for the sake of doing so. Therefore I'm going to try & find some justfication for grabbing the points....

Homedogs

KC+3.5 vs Bills

Lions+8 vs TB

Rams+8 vs Chi

Seattle+3.5 vs Wash

Cards+3 vs Giants

The thought of backing the Seahawks again this season makes me throw up a little in my mouth, which in the NFL could mean a cover lol. Not ready to look deeper into this matchup, but it would take either balls or stupidity to back the Hawks. Maybe someone else has a good take on this one.

Chiefs+3.5- This one looks like a good spot situationally to play on the Chiefs moneyline. I faded them vs the Saints in a bad situational spot for KC- they were off another closely played loss. Tough to get up in that spot. After a beatdown vs the Titans, look at what KC has done.

cover ats @Jets (4 pt loss)

cover ats vs TB (3 pt ot loss)

cover ats @SD (1 pt loss)

loss su & ats vs NO (10 pt loss)

Now look at the Bills- 4 straight losses, the latest a 2 pt loss as 5 pt home faves with a potential game winnning fg missing late. Now their season is over for all intents & purposes, & they are favored to go to Arrowhead & win? ok

As I stated in an earlier discussion thread, KC's offense has been rejuvenated after switching to the spread offense. Bowe has emerged as a big threat, & not LJ has a game underneath his belt playing in the new offense. Thigpen has been playing well, & with the Bills inability to get a pass rush paired with their iffy secondary, could be trouble for Buffalo. I have a ton of thoughts on the Bills again this week, but I can ramble all day about that. Last week I suggested to stay off the Bills & the over was a decent play. Tough to see things any differently this week.

Cards+3- As I stated before, I think the Giants are the best team in the game. Tend to agree with JML (see his week 12 thread), pretty cupcake schedule lately for the Cards. If I was making a case for the Cards, I would say that the Giants are off a 20 pt win, & that they are 1-2 this season after a 20+ pt win. The only other time they went on the road after a 20+ pt win was @Cleveland, where they were dealt their only loss. I faded the Cards this week with Seattle, but the Seahawks had other plans with their 4 turnovers. The Cards are perfectly capable of throwing all over any team in the NFL. The Giants are capable of running all over any team in the NFL. Now the question is, who executes? Realistically I think the Giants have a better chance of executing, though they also have a better chance of coming out flat. Still, the Cards to me are the same old team, & when they face a premier team, they are likely to get beat soundly. IMO the only way they win is if they somehow win the turnover battle. I just don't see Warner getting all the time to throw that he's grown accustomed to getting, playing teams with no pass rush. Safe to say he'll see some pressure......total set high at 49, but I think it's justified, & lean to the over.

Lions+8- Man do the Lions know how to lose. 8 looks like a high number, but they have lost by at least 8 in every home game this season. They can't stop the run at all, & if TB gets a run game going it wil spell trouble for the Lions. I also worry about Culpooper vs a defense that could pick him off 2+ easy. Calvin Johnson may have to catch 2 bombs for the cover here. At the same time I don't know how comfortable I would be backing the Buccs as a 8pt road fave, especially considering they have been horrible on the road this season.

TB on the road

lost @NO 24-20

won @Chi 27-24 ot

lost @Den 16-13

lost @Dal 13-9

won @KC 30-27 ot

so they are 2-3 su on the road, with both wins coming thanks to an overtime fg? Lean lions or no play- I don't know about this one, will have to look a bit deeper. Maybe another over, though for TB, when the O struggles, it really struggles.....

**Billy The Kid** · 11-18-2008, 02:52 PM

Also looking to limit the card this week as the past few have been terrible.

KC Chiefs +3.5 - Agree with Ud and think this is a very difficult spot for the Bills. Season likely over and they will be comming off a short week to play in one of the toughest places to play in the league. LJ got more carries than expected last week even with Herm stating before the game that his touches would be limitted. He may be a team cancer but he is still a good back and gives the Chiefs one more offensive option/play maker than they previously had.

New England Patriots +2 - Last time these two teams met the Dolphins embarressed the Pats in New England introducing the wild cat to the league so I like that it is a bit of a revenge game for NE. Pats also with a few extra days to rest/prepare for the Dolphins as they played on Thursday night and any time you give Bellicheck extra time to prepare he usually makes the most of it. Number opened at Miami -3 and public is hammering the Pats witch is scary. IMO this is a must win for the Pats as they must play the Steelers, at Seattle, at Oakland, back home against the Cardinals, and then close out the season in Buffalo. The AFC wild card is so cluddered right now that each game becomes more and more important. If they loose the chances of winning the division are going to be extremely difficult. Miami would be one of the teams the Pats would have to hurdle for the wild card position and if NE loses the Dolphins would have swept the season series. NE looked to be heading in the right direction before lossing to the Jets, but the offense still was productive and Cassel looked great, the Defense just couldn't come up with stops when they needed them. This is where I like Bellicheck to step in a fix some of the holes that were exposed with Adalius Thomas being out. Miami on the other hand has won four straight but has barely squeeked by the Seahawks and Raiders the past two weeks. The game is a must win for the Dolphins as well especially for their divisionaly sights but they have a pretty easy schedule the remainder of the year.

Minnesota Vikings +2.5 - IMO another must win here. All teams in NFC North sitting at 5-5 and the division is up for grabs. Minnesota has a very difficult schedule remaining, after this week in Jacksonville they are home against Chicago, in Detroit, in Arizona, home against Atlanta, and close out the season against the giants. (Giants game could have less significant for NY if they lock up the division and decide to rest some players.) Before last weeks battle with Tennesse (witch they still lost by 10) the jags were struggling to get by Cleveland, Cincy and Denver. There only convincing win this year came at Detroit two weeks ago. I like Minnys D to continue to stop the run and force D.Garrad to beat them. IMO Garrad hasnt shown enough this year to win a game on his own without a balanced running attack.

Indianapolis Colts +3 - Colts seem to be as close to full speed as they are going to get this year on offense. Addai finally showed up now gives the colts a good 1-2 punch with Rhodes. Colts winning 3 in a row and the Charges playoff hopes are over. I thought this line would have had the colts has 3 point faves and was surprised to see the Charges laying points. Sure to be a big public game but its eathier a colts play or no play for me.

**Underdog88** · 11-18-2008, 04:11 PM

I just keep looking at the Patriots line thinking, is this for real? The Patriots off an ot divisional loss & playing with revenge. Both at 6-4 with the winner possibly tied at first (though the Jets have the tie breaker) should the Jets lose. Dolphins have been squeeking by as of late barely beating the Raiders & Seahawks and are favored? Does NE seem like a sucker bet to anyone else? I mean from both situational & motivational edges go to the Patriots, plus they are dogged? Two things that are for sure in my mind-

1. No way do the Patriots get burned by the wildcat this time around.

2. No way the Fins win without a productive run game

I am unsure of how good the Pats run defense really is, which to me is the crux of this matchup....

**Daws1089** · 11-18-2008, 04:18 PM

I don't know how much it matters, but Arizona can clinch their division with a win on sunday.

I'm surprised the jets are being hit early on. the line was driven down from 5.5 to 4.5 now. I don't like that as I figured it would go the other way.

How is SD favored again? This is becoming ridiculous. Colts have been improving pretty much every week now and the chargers haven;t improved at all. They found a way to blow the steelers game, almost blew it against the chiefs as 15 pt favs. Nothing leads me to believe this SD team is any better than they were 3 games ago and even if it is a public play, I have to side with Indy as they are getting it going offensively. Bob sanders being out would be my only concern.

**Daws1089** · 11-19-2008, 11:51 AM

I'm looking on Betus, who the F--k would pay -150 for Vikings team total over 17.5???
That seems so ridiculous. First of all, minn is on the road. Their offense isn't very good to begin with. I'm sure jax will be focused on peterson and make Gus beat them. I just couldn't justify paying that amount for that wager. Its under or nothing for me.

**Stifler's Mom** · 11-19-2008, 03:56 PM

YES, the NE line does look like a big fat sucker bet. They opened NE at +3, and EVERYONE is on them. The line has since moved accordingly to NE +2, which has not stopped the onslaught of public money on them.

So then my only question becomes, what do they do, open Miami as a home dog? Or is this a spot where they didn't have much choice but to open Miami as a home fave, and take their lumps if NE covers?

I'm not sure. The whole AFC East is a wack job lately if you ask me. If you believe the AFC East is any good, then you HAVE TO BELIEVE the JETS are FOR REAL with the way they handled NE and BUF on the road, and how they're stopping the run and running well themselves.

Then the Jets are a STEAL this week at +5.5, if you indeed do believe that the entire AFC East does not suck. Tennessee still rolling along, having beaten 1 team with a winning record and all...

DET looks good, or should I say TB looks bad? I could NEVER back TB laying -8 on the road....which makes me automatically lean towards the Lions +8

SD and their 3-4 defense OWN the Colts. Why does everyone like Indy catching a mere FG on the road there, on natural grass, and against a team that beats their ass continually, no matter where the game is played?

JAX over MIN is a play i might just have to make on principle alone. MIN is a joke of a team, no matter how much talent they have, or how good Adrian Peterson is. Turnovers. Blunders. HORRIBLE coaching. PISS POOR special teams. This team has everything you could possibly look for in a fade!!

That Lambs vs Bears game has "stay the **** away"!! written all over it, don't you guys think?

I have more thoughts, but i'm supposed to be painting, and i was just waiting for the stuff to dry that i already did, and that should have happened by now, so i guess maybe i'll get back to this later, lol

Oh, one thing I do know though, is that the public is going to eat a big pile of ass one of these weeks after pretty much torching the books again last week. Is this the one? Guess we'll find out in a few days....but I don't think the oddsmakers are gonna keep letting this public slaughter go on forever, and there are A TON of "easy winners" on the card this week, for whatever that's worth....

NE, NYG & WASH come to mind, with honorable mention to INDY, CHI and BUF which are also teams Joe Q seems to be quite interested in as of right now....

**Stifler's Mom** · 11-19-2008, 04:12 PM

Oh, I forgot CAR @ ATL. That line is a joke, at first glance anyway.

IMHO, CAR SUCKS, and losing to the Broncos gives ATL backers a TON of value this week. no WAY that line should be less than ATL -3.5 if you ask me.

And as much as I hate to say it, BUF being a road fave right now is ridiculous....simply because they do not take care of the ball. They have the worst turnover margin in the NFL, i believe....

**Daws1089** · 11-19-2008, 04:14 PM

My problem with SD is not what they did last year or in the playoffs, but how bad they are this year. Who cares f they intercepted payton 6 times last year, the colts still almost won the game with a missed fg so they did absolutely nothing with the 6 turnovers. SD defense has been less than average for most of the year. Gates? Does he even play for them anymore, you never hear his name anymore. LT's best football is behind him and I do not think Philip Rivers can shoulder this load. It might not be the best bet out there, but I can not play SD here.

**Stifler's Mom** · 11-19-2008, 04:57 PM

I hear what you're saying, and maybe you're right, but SD has physically handled Indy every time they've played for the last few years, not just once....and Peyton seems to not have figured out their defensive scheme yet either, as he seems to always struggle against them

Natural grass seems to slow Indy a step or two also.

I do agree, however, that they Indy is the better team, and that they're getting healthy and seems they're "peaking" at the right time, and also that SD, along with the rest of the AFC West, sucks.

The little win streak Indy has going here has been over some decent teams too, but I still have a real hard time getting past the way SD has been able to dominate them physically the last few times they've faced off though....but then again, SD was a "good team" back then i suppose, as compared to one that's not so good right now.

Pinnacle has Indy +1, while pretty much everyone else has Indy +2.5, which I also find to be odd, for whatever that's worth....

**Daws1089** · 11-19-2008, 05:04 PM

Also, I'm sure the schemes are different, but Indy was also able to take down pitt who runs a 3-4 also so it isn't just the actual 3-4 he struggles with, it must be something else.

**Underdog88** · 11-20-2008, 11:12 AM

A case for the Raiders+ pts & game over 43

Raiders have revenge in a divisional rivalry game after losing 41-14 @ home to them in week 1. The Raiders were able to run, with 150 on the ground but couldn't stop the Donkeys, who had 441 total yds.

Now Denver is getting attention after two straight road wins as dogs...I backed them both games, but definitely not this week. 2 su road wins as dogs and are now favored by 9.5? This is a spot where I look to back the unpopular dog, especially when the team was 14 last 5 before the road wins. Let's look a little deeper into the Broncos team. Here are their games @ home

won by 1 vs SD

won by 2 vs NO

won by 3 vs TB

lost by 7 to Jax

lost by 9 to Miami

In the game vs Miami they were outgained & had 14 rushing yds. Jax ran for 155 vs them. The three wins were all by 3 pts or less, & they were able to hold the run game in check. Looking at their last two wins, they were a far cry from dominating wins. They were outgained vs Atlanta, & had the come from behind victory vs the Browns gift-wrapped. The Browns had 400 total yds & 160 on the ground! In losses to KC, NE they gave up 213 & 257 yds respectively. They have the #26 ranked rushing D allowing 4.9ypc/ 143 per game. Oakland is around the same vs the run, but they aren't the ones favored!

Oakland is off a last second loss to Miami where they needed a kick return just to get in the endzone. However, the Fins were able to stall the run, which Denver has yet to prove they are capable of. Looking at their schedule, they have faced Miami#9, Carolina#17, ATL, Balty#3 & the Jets#4. Not the easiest buch of defenses to run against, 3 of which are in the top 10 vs the run. Denver is definitely not in the top 10, could be a good situation for the #10 rushing offense to put up points...
Raiders on the road....

won @KC by 15

lost @Buf by 1 pt

lost @NO by 31

lost @Bal by 19

lost @Mia by 2

3-2 ats with both ats losses coming against teams who were able to stop the run. Sole win vs a divisional opponent. Oakland managed a revenge win last year @home34-20 after losing 23-20 in ot @Den. They had over 175 rushing yards in both games last season. As if you couldn't guess, the Oakland run game is the key to victory, and I think I'm going to need McFadden in the lineup to make the play. Denver will be without lb Webster & fs McRee, & it seems as if Champ will return. Strong lean to Oak & over....

**Underdog88** · 11-20-2008, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by Daws1089

I'm looking on Betus, who the F--k would pay -150 for Vikings team total over 17.5???
That seems so ridiculous. First of all, minn is on the road. Their offense isn't very good to begin with. I'm sure jax will be focused on peterson and make Gus beat them. I just couldn't justify paying that amount for that wager. Its under or nothing for me.

I would definitely be down to play o19 even. I don't lay juice that high on team totals (especially one with the hook still out there?), but I wouldn't be on the under. Jags opponents pts scored @Jax

20 to buffalo

27 to Houston

26 to Pitt

23 to Cleveland

24 to Ten.

I actually have a lean to the Vikings here. Both teams are pretty much equal in the pasdsing game with bo0th averaging 6.7 ypp. The Vikings have the #4 rushing attack, averaging 4.5 ypc/139 per game, & Jax has allowed 4.3 ypc. The Jags can't win unless they get an effective run game going, & they are facing a defense that allows 3ypc/ 68 per game. The Jags haven't won when they have been held under 115 yds rushing (0-5). The Jags rushing stats in their 4 wins

236 vs Indy

139 vs Houston

155 vs Den

157 vs Det

I just don't see them running all over the Vikings defense, so for me it comes down to turnovers.....

**Underdog88** · 11-20-2008, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

I hear what you're saying, and maybe you're right, but SD has physically handled Indy every time they've played for the last few years, not just once....and Peyton seems to not have figured out their defensive scheme yet either, as he seems to always struggle against them

Natural grass seems to slow Indy a step or two also.

I do agree, however, that they Indy is the better team, and that they're getting healthy and seems they're "peaking" at the right time, and also that SD, along with the rest of the AFC West, sucks.

Good point about the natural grass. West does suck, funny to think SD is 4-6 & with a win/Denver loss, they are 1 game out of first....Tough to bet against Indy/Peyton su, but SD desperately needs this win. Houston shredded the Colts run d yet again last week. I just don't see how LT doesn't have a breakout game here. If the Chargers were smart they would have 45+ rushing attempts between LT/Sproles. Keep Manning off the field & get him out of rhythm early.

**BoKnows** · 11-20-2008, 01:19 PM

When it looks too good to be true it more than likely is especially in the nofunleague. That being said how does a shiat bungles team that is coming off a 5 quarter game, lots of injuries, a benched 85 keep this within the number...answer....because it is the N F L and that is the way **** goes. Have not made up my mind on this one but I would imagine everyone and there grand mother will ride Steel town tonite....I say not so fast my friend...what say you?

Week 12 Discussion