Week 11 Discussion

[Stifler's Mom]

If u saw trent play... donno whos from buffalo or that area.. but it seems the opposing defenses have stop respecting buffalo's ability to run the ball and blitzing like mad, he gets flushed out alot and cant handle the pressure...

i believe the bolts line is lower because the chargers are the Public's favorite team or something.. i am a huge bolts fan but... how the heck can they win on the road....with that defense. if the bolts defense shows or big ben screws up then yeah but its not likely.

As far as the Bills thought.....it seems you're right, although I don't know that CLE is able to play that style. I think Trent can burn them if they try to play too much man to man blitz like crazy, unlike against the Patriots who were there to make the play even when Trent made the right reads and got the ball out hot where it was supposed to go.

Also, both the Jets and Patriots punished the Bills defense by throwing short passes and running the ball in passing situations, and running once they had the defense tired out. While CLE is a capable conventional running team, neither running on 3rd and medium/long, nor the screen/trap/slant & run after the catch game are really a staple of the CLE offense. While they may give up a few longer passes, the BUF defense should also be able to get off the field vs CLE, and shouldn't break down late in the game (i.e. MIA and NYJ) from being on the field way too long.

Note that BUF dominated both MIA and NYJ in the 1H, but had very little to show for it in either game....then come the 2H, they wore out, and both of those games ended up getting out of reach....so it's not like they're all of a sudden incapable of playing well, they just need to capitalize when they are playing well (mainly score TD's instead of FG's, plus not turn the ball over inside the 10 after 15 play/80+ yard drives :bang: ) so they can sustain the lead when the other team makes a run. Not very often does any NFL team completely dominate for 4 straight qtrs of any game. Capitalizing on opportunities is something BUF did well early in the year, but haven't done recently. I believe they WILL be able to do vs a soft CLE defense, though...

[Furashu]

Going with the PATRIOTS as much as i thought they were overrated... that NYJ line is juiced like crazy for me.

My System has always been to choose the team that has been playing SOLID ball and the PATRIOTS have been playing that. I hate the jets team and think they are HUGELY overrated. Public loves to jump all over the Favre phenom and think WTF JETS +3.5 WOO IM PUTTING A ZILLION ON THEM!!!

Not putting alot because i dont know how the loss of adalius thomas will affect them.. but NE is pretty dam good at home.

That TEN play looks great i am very confused as why it is at THREE i remember we had the same thoughts about the FALCONS vs RAIDERS game when it was THREE and like 99% of the public's money was on the Raiders. Gonna play the Titans most likely.

Im starting to like that CHEIFS play now that u guys point out how bad the saints are. THey lost their Top CB.... their d-line is horrid, no reggie and Brees can throw tds all he wants but if hes DEFENSE sucks they cant win.

[Underdog88]

If u saw trent play... donno whos from buffalo or that area.. but it seems the opposing defenses have stop respecting buffalo's ability to run the ball and blitzing like mad, he gets flushed out alot and cant handle the pressure...

The Bills O-line is simply not what it was cracked up to be. They can't run block to save their lives, & are beat off the ball a majority of the time. IMO that's the core of the Bills problems offensively (along with the terrible playcalling thanks to Jauron). Look at the stats- Lynch has rushed for over 70 yards just twice this season (vs Seattle & Oakland). Without a respectable run game, Defenses are able to apply more pressure to Trent, & force him into rushed throws. Of course it doesn't help when there is no clear cut #2 or slot wr. Parrish is capable of the occasional solid game (I give him credit for last week), but can't block to save his life & often has trouble running a solid route. As much as I bitch about him, Josh Reed being out takes away the best blocking wr we have. Hopefully Steve Johnson can step it up this week, as I have high hopes for him. While Lee Evans is certainly a good wr, he hasn't stepped up in big situations lately like most would have expected him to. The wins we had were from Edwards stepping up & making solid offensive decisions, but he was also getting much more time to go through his progressions, & the D was making plays & getting off the field. I really can't put too much blame on him- the fact of the matter is you can't win games if you can't run the ball! My biggest pet peeve is that Jauron's playcalling has become so predictable. If Lynch is in the backfield, chances are he's getting the ball. They don't even try screens to take advantage of the fact that the defenses they are facing are constantly applying quick pressure. Also they are losing the TOP & turnover battle, which they only lost 1 time in their 5 wins (3 to's to Oakland's 1). In their 4 losses they have 13 turnovers! You simply can't win when you don't protect the ball.


Now onto the defense.... Schobel out has hurt the pass rush immensely, with him out teams don't have to double the side & can keep a te in the box for an extra blocker. Denney & Kelsay have been unable to get a pass rush at all. That has forced the Bills to bring down LBs to try & shoot the gaps & apply pressure. Problem with that is it leaves the middle of the field open to those quick hitters & slants. This is compounded by the facct that the Bills are horribly thin in the defensive backfield. With Youboty done for the season, & Whitner out (I see he may play Sunday), they have been forced to play young inexperienced players back there. mcKelvin IMO is not a starter yet, & Corner, Wilson & Scott IMO are all journeymen.... McGee just hasn't been able to make the big play. With no pass rush, it's much easier for teams to get into a wr set & eventually someone will break open. That is my concern vs the Browns. Braylon, & a 2 te set could really spell trouble for the Bills secondary, especially if they continue to be unable to generate a pass rush.

[Underdog88]

Saints/Chiefs o50

Looking at the line I'm sure many would think "why in the hell would anyone lay pts on the road with NO?" I agree to an extent, but think this game is a set up. KC playing 3 close games but unable to get the win. All 3 were decided by 4 pts or less, & now they are getting +5.5 @ home? Oh yeah & LJ is back! My question is, how many times can a team get up for a game after losing so many close ones? This reminds me a lot of the Jags/Lions game last week. A team that seemingly can't buy a road win vs team that has played a bunch of close games, winning ats but not su. Detroit plays @ Minny, @ Houston, & @ Chicago all within the number, then returns home & gets blown out by Jax.

While I agree that it's a tough play on the Saints as a road fave, IMO the line is justified. They are in the cellar & would likely need to win 6 of 7 to get into the playoffs. Basically every game has become a must win. Both defenses are extremely banged up, NO lost McKenzie for the year & will have to start some inexperienced cbs. KC's top 3 de's are all hurt, MsBride & Brian Johnson are both out, which makes this D-line extremely thin. To top it off, Sutain & Flowers are both questionable....Could spell trouble when facing Brees, especially if Bush is back.

On the Offensive side for the Chiefs, LJ should be back in the mix, but he's basically coming into a new offense. With him out & their backup rbs dropping like flies, the Chiefs have switched to a spread offense. Thigpen has definitely responded well to this. The Saints are allowing 7.3 yds per pass/ 238 per game, with 14 tds allowed. KC isn't much better, allowing 7.8 per pass/233 per game. Throw in the fact that the Chiefs are allowing 5.2 ypc/172 per game 14 tds, & I think we see both teams being able to move the ball. Brees threw 3 interceptions lst week, & they settled for 2 early fgs. I think they will be able to find the endzone in KC, so over it is with a lean on the Saints.....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks for the info UD :thumbs:

I'm still trying to figure out what it the right play on that Buffalo game. Tough to lay points with the Bills right now.

I added the Aints...they blow on the road, but I think they should take care of KC.

Interesting takes on TB/MIN...that ones too tough to call IMO...


GL this week everyone!