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Got an early wager that I'm sure I'll be leaving on my card, so here to offer a look at one of my situational breakdowns. I'd like to hear some arguments for the Texans if they are out there. I'll have the rest of my plays tomorrow. Good luck to everyone this weekend!
HOU @ MIN
Passing Game
Gus Bus has passed for about 300 yards the past two games and has a connection with Berrian that is inching closer to the newly-heralded Johnson/Schaub hookup. Johnson has been held in check twice on the road this year and has not caught a TD in 3 games on the road. Griffin will be trouble with decent with downfield coverage. Most pass plays he gives up are the 10-15 yard range. Vikings have only allowed two 100-yard receivers all year, and only allowed 4 TDs to wideouts and never 2 in one game. Madieu Williams is back and will start. Solid upgrade over rookie Tyrell Johnson if he's healthy. Sidney Rice is also back on the offensive side of the ball for the Viks and gives Gus Bus one more solid target. Schaub has boosted his numbers so much in the past few weeks against week opposition that everyone seems to forget that he is a middle of the road QB. Frerotte looked horrible last week (4 INTs), but he was playing against the #1 pass deflection team in the NFL. Daniels is a viable option for the Texans, but the Vikings gave up their first TD to a TE last week in a skilled receiver Greg Olsen of the Bears who use their TE's quite a bit. I'm sure most will see the Texans as having an advantage in the pass game, but I'm not sold on Houston being a consistent pass offense especially on the road.
Ground Game
Ahman Green is questionable with a sore thigh. He practiced but is still game-time decision. Granted the schedule has been light, this team is much more potent running the ball when getting him 10 carries. If Slaton takes all the hits he should average 2-3 ypc this game. Take out a season long 50 yard run from Slaton and he's averaging under 3.5 ypc on the road this year, a whole yard less than at home. Slaton is a much better runner to the left sideline, scoring all 5 of his TDs on the ground to the left side. He'll have a tough matchup with quick Jared Allen at DE and Kevin Williams drawing double coverage next to him. Houston's 1st year strongside LB Diles is tender with a sore hamstring and DeMeco Ryans is admittedly in a mid-season swoon and clearly losing a step these past couple weeks. If they get soft in the middle AP will tear this secondary a new one. AP hasn't scored a TD at home yet this year after averaging 6.4 ypc at home last year. He went off the charts after the bye week last year putting over 200 yards against Chicago at Soldier Field! We haven't seen a 200 yard game from him yet. Texans are a prime candidate for 200+ yds. and 2 TD's.
Bottom line, the Texans have lost 6 straight road games and have no idea what they are getting into at the Metrodome. They are coming off two cream-puff opponents while the Vikings are a nice 5-1 ATS in last 6 years off a bye. Schaub says he's going to try and jump on the board early with shots downfield. I'm taking an improved Vikings secondary to accept his challenge.
2% SPREAD ($650) = VIKINGS -4 (-120)
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HOU @ MIN
Passing Game
Gus Bus has passed for about 300 yards the past two games and has a connection with Berrian that is inching closer to the newly-heralded Johnson/Schaub hookup. Johnson has been held in check twice on the road this year and has not caught a TD in 3 games on the road. Griffin will be trouble with decent with downfield coverage. Most pass plays he gives up are the 10-15 yard range. Vikings have only allowed two 100-yard receivers all year, and only allowed 4 TDs to wideouts and never 2 in one game. Madieu Williams is back and will start. Solid upgrade over rookie Tyrell Johnson if he's healthy. Sidney Rice is also back on the offensive side of the ball for the Viks and gives Gus Bus one more solid target. Schaub has boosted his numbers so much in the past few weeks against week opposition that everyone seems to forget that he is a middle of the road QB. Frerotte looked horrible last week (4 INTs), but he was playing against the #1 pass deflection team in the NFL. Daniels is a viable option for the Texans, but the Vikings gave up their first TD to a TE last week in a skilled receiver Greg Olsen of the Bears who use their TE's quite a bit. I'm sure most will see the Texans as having an advantage in the pass game, but I'm not sold on Houston being a consistent pass offense especially on the road.
Ground Game
Ahman Green is questionable with a sore thigh. He practiced but is still game-time decision. Granted the schedule has been light, this team is much more potent running the ball when getting him 10 carries. If Slaton takes all the hits he should average 2-3 ypc this game. Take out a season long 50 yard run from Slaton and he's averaging under 3.5 ypc on the road this year, a whole yard less than at home. Slaton is a much better runner to the left sideline, scoring all 5 of his TDs on the ground to the left side. He'll have a tough matchup with quick Jared Allen at DE and Kevin Williams drawing double coverage next to him. Houston's 1st year strongside LB Diles is tender with a sore hamstring and DeMeco Ryans is admittedly in a mid-season swoon and clearly losing a step these past couple weeks. If they get soft in the middle AP will tear this secondary a new one. AP hasn't scored a TD at home yet this year after averaging 6.4 ypc at home last year. He went off the charts after the bye week last year putting over 200 yards against Chicago at Soldier Field! We haven't seen a 200 yard game from him yet. Texans are a prime candidate for 200+ yds. and 2 TD's.
Bottom line, the Texans have lost 6 straight road games and have no idea what they are getting into at the Metrodome. They are coming off two cream-puff opponents while the Vikings are a nice 5-1 ATS in last 6 years off a bye. Schaub says he's going to try and jump on the board early with shots downfield. I'm taking an improved Vikings secondary to accept his challenge.
2% SPREAD ($650) = VIKINGS -4 (-120)
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