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reg plays 50-37 (+19.10 units)
dog ml's 15-20 (+5.00 units)
overall 65-57 (+24.10 units)
DET +8
NE -8
PHI -9
ARI +5.5
NO +3 (+100)
NO/SD u46.5
BAL -9 (+100)
JAX -7 (-115)
PIT -3 (+100)
SEA +5.5 (+100)
2 units each
ARI ml +210
DET ml +260
NO ml +135
SEA ml +200
1 unit each
Yes, that is Detroit moneyline LMFAO :laughing:
In all seriousness though, i want to say a few things about 2 of the games i DID NOT play.....
These are the kind of games that are dragging my ats record (excluding the dog ml's) under 60% (which is my goal), as I seem to lose every single game that I have conflicted thoughts about for some reason.....even if i feel maybe 75% sure that one of the sides is the right one and i go ahead and make the play. That's why I'm trimming these 2 games completely off today's card.
BUF/MIA - Seems the public is all over BUF and there is sharper money on MIA....although I must say MIA seems like a sexy home dog pick amongst many here from what I see in reading over some threads this morning.
Normally just judging by the public % and line movement, I would be all over MIA in this spot, but I feel BUF is the far better team. I think MIA won a few games convincingly using gimmick formations, but still have a long way to go to be up to par with where BUF has gotten themselves, imho, and these are the games where champions win on the road.
It's one of those damned if you do, and damned if you don't situations. If i go against my thoughts that BUF is far better and take MIA due to the public %/line move/oddsmaker opinion and then BUF wins, I'm an ass for going against my thoughts.
Likewise, if i take BUF and go with my thoughts and ignore all the signs I normally use to handicap that point to MIA, and MIA wins, then i'm kicking myself in the ass for doing that too.
Gun to my head, i would take BUF....but like I said, not the world's best spot to play them. I DO NOT like MIA, however, so I did what is the more intelligent thing for me, and passed.
DAL/TB - How is this line not SCREAMING for DAL money? These guys were penciled in for the super bowl before they even played a game!! Now they are laying -1 point at home?
Sadly enough, the public isn't falling for it, as I see a slightly higher % on TB. I don't trust TB as much on the road as I do at home, and i honestly think this could come down to weather DAL shows up or not on the offensive side of the ball.
If they don't, it's TB in a romp....and they certainly have the personnel capable of not showing up.
Even if DAL does show up, I'm not convinced they can stop TB...or anyone else. That D SUCKS.
With that being said, gun to my head, I'd be on TB. But like BUF/MIA, my thoughts are conflicted, and I think it was better for me to pass on this one too.
The reason i even posted these thoughts is because I think there are a few games like this where all of us are on the fence with every week (not necessarily the same games for everyone)....and by bringing it up, i thought maybe we could get some discussion going about it and all avoid some potential losers for ourselves by strengthening our discipline. I know discipline is not a problem for some, but for many it is the biggest key area where we can improve our handicapping.
dog ml's 15-20 (+5.00 units)
overall 65-57 (+24.10 units)
DET +8
NE -8
PHI -9
ARI +5.5
NO +3 (+100)
NO/SD u46.5
BAL -9 (+100)
JAX -7 (-115)
PIT -3 (+100)
SEA +5.5 (+100)
2 units each
ARI ml +210
DET ml +260
NO ml +135
SEA ml +200
1 unit each
Yes, that is Detroit moneyline LMFAO :laughing:
In all seriousness though, i want to say a few things about 2 of the games i DID NOT play.....
These are the kind of games that are dragging my ats record (excluding the dog ml's) under 60% (which is my goal), as I seem to lose every single game that I have conflicted thoughts about for some reason.....even if i feel maybe 75% sure that one of the sides is the right one and i go ahead and make the play. That's why I'm trimming these 2 games completely off today's card.
BUF/MIA - Seems the public is all over BUF and there is sharper money on MIA....although I must say MIA seems like a sexy home dog pick amongst many here from what I see in reading over some threads this morning.
Normally just judging by the public % and line movement, I would be all over MIA in this spot, but I feel BUF is the far better team. I think MIA won a few games convincingly using gimmick formations, but still have a long way to go to be up to par with where BUF has gotten themselves, imho, and these are the games where champions win on the road.
It's one of those damned if you do, and damned if you don't situations. If i go against my thoughts that BUF is far better and take MIA due to the public %/line move/oddsmaker opinion and then BUF wins, I'm an ass for going against my thoughts.
Likewise, if i take BUF and go with my thoughts and ignore all the signs I normally use to handicap that point to MIA, and MIA wins, then i'm kicking myself in the ass for doing that too.
Gun to my head, i would take BUF....but like I said, not the world's best spot to play them. I DO NOT like MIA, however, so I did what is the more intelligent thing for me, and passed.
DAL/TB - How is this line not SCREAMING for DAL money? These guys were penciled in for the super bowl before they even played a game!! Now they are laying -1 point at home?
Sadly enough, the public isn't falling for it, as I see a slightly higher % on TB. I don't trust TB as much on the road as I do at home, and i honestly think this could come down to weather DAL shows up or not on the offensive side of the ball.
If they don't, it's TB in a romp....and they certainly have the personnel capable of not showing up.
Even if DAL does show up, I'm not convinced they can stop TB...or anyone else. That D SUCKS.
With that being said, gun to my head, I'd be on TB. But like BUF/MIA, my thoughts are conflicted, and I think it was better for me to pass on this one too.
The reason i even posted these thoughts is because I think there are a few games like this where all of us are on the fence with every week (not necessarily the same games for everyone)....and by bringing it up, i thought maybe we could get some discussion going about it and all avoid some potential losers for ourselves by strengthening our discipline. I know discipline is not a problem for some, but for many it is the biggest key area where we can improve our handicapping.
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