***Week 8 NFL Discussion***

[Underdog88]

chalkdog- no interest in that NE Under?

I like the under as well. Waiting to see whether or not Jackson plays. I'm starting to think maybe the Rams team under is the way to go. 17.5, especially if there is no Jackson. Seems as though Belicek hasn't quite let go of the running up the score philosophy, which is my main cocern (that and turnovers by the Rams turning into garbage pts). Pats are likely gonna play ball control, just hate that I didn't play it @ 43.5, don't like the 1 pt drop at all.

[JoeyBallgame]

Public Favorite...

I think the Baltimore line is high as well upon first glance, but if oddsmakers are going by the book and giving the 3 points for HF, then Balt is -4 on a neutral site and -1 @ Oak, which I think is about right. It's still a pick-the-winner scenario, and I can't envision Oak going into Balt and winning and that's what it comes down to.

To me the Car game is alot more appealing at -4 then it is laying the hook. I think the letdown spot is a good point, and Ariz coming off a bye is big too. However, Ariz is somewhat like Sea in that they notoriously suck on the east coast, and have shown nothing this year to state otherwise. Car's defense should be the best unit on the field, and I think a 7 point win for Car is in the cards. I think the Car line is right on.

And I'm seeing the Jets giving 13.5. That is a f*king joke, but i'm done breaking my rule of betting on brutal teams.

Loved that Baltimore matchup from the get-go, but soured on it after seeing that it is a 80-20 public play according to thespread...that said, its a play anyway as the combination of west coast coming east, raiders coming off a win as a young team, and a non-threatening passing game vs a physical evil defense has overcome the public factor...

...my thoughts exactly on Miami, they are a solidish team playing a division game at home and getting a point or two against a bills team that by listening to the post game interviews were way too high after beating the chargers, you would think they won the super bowl listening to them...they are a young unit too, expecting something less than their best game, also...miami in october is a shock to some cold weather teams...temps could push over 80 with high humidity

BOL.

[Underdog88]

...my thoughts exactly on Miami, they are a solidish team playing a division game at home and getting a point or two against a bills team that by listening to the post game interviews were way too high after beating the chargers, you would think they won the super bowl listening to them...they are a young unit too, expecting something less than their best game,



also...miami in october is a shock to some cold weather teams...temps could push over 80 with high humidity

What interview? I don't really get that from the Bills team. I also don't think weather will be a factor, as the Bills won @Jax & it was crazy hot! That being said, I don't think this is the best spot to play on the Bills...

[NIU Murph]

UD,

I think Joey is referring to Miami players being interviewed after THEIR win over SD (not Bills players). I think he feels they were a bit cocky as of late, losing a close game in Houston and a whooping by Baltimore.

Anyway, that's the way I read it.

NIU Murph

[FlyersFan]

I'm down this week already on:

STL/NE Under44 -120
CIN/HOU Over43 -120
MIA +110
CIN +10
BAL -7

Teaser (10Point): MIA +11 1/2, BAL +3, NEP +3


still leaning heavily on SDG/NO Over46 (that is where i saw it last). Waiting for chalkoverdog to give me the OK to play it....:thumbs:

GL to everyone this week!

[BUNK MORELAND]

i have been burned by jacksonville all year

I'm sticking with them on sunday

-coming off a bye
-coming off a big road win
-Cleveland distraction city

[FlyersFan]

Added a teaser on:

PHI -2/BAL -1/2
SDG/NO Over39 & CIN/HOU Over37
CIN over17 1/2 -115 (HOU has surrendered 20+ to everyone including the Lions)

NE total down to 42 in some places (42 1/2 in others)....CIN total at 44 or 44 1/2....nice to have gotten the best of those numbers earlier in the week even if they get cornholed. 43 is a pretty big number in totals IMO and probably the one i focus on the most. Always like above for an Under and Below for an Over. But that's just me.....lol.

that'll do it for me.

good thoughts this week. pretty much tailed the BAL play. Hopefully all this hits...:thumbs:

[TGold]

I may be in the minority on this one, but the more I look at it, the more I like the UNDER in that SD/NO game. Rain + 60 minutes of pounding is gonna tear up that field in a similar manner to the fins/giants game last year. Both teams playing on foreign turf and the Saints in a little turmoil with the steroid and injury clouds over their heads; I have a hard time seeing this game approach 50 pts.

[FlyersFan]

wow....some steam this AM...

MIA at -1
CIN total at 45
BAL up to -9 and NE up to -9 as well......


SDG total sticking at 46.....think i may just leave that one alone and play the over39 as part of the 2 teamer.

[Underdog88]

SDG total sticking at 46.....think i may just leave that one alone and play the over39 as part of the 2 teamer.

I ended up playing the 1sth o23. Both off unusually low scoring efforts, has me thinking regardless of how wet the field is, it's imperative for both teams to get off to a good offensive start....

[Furashu]

steven jackson is out for all u betting on the stl/NE game.

for those betting on the redskins/lions
shawn springs is out

[Underdog88]

Colts/Titans o42- I think I'm done trying to fade the Titans. Maybe. Not trying to take anything away from what the Titans have done so far this season, but look at their schedule. The combined record of the teams they have faced? 12-26. I'll give you the Ravens & Jags @.500 as good teams, but the fact remains that they have yet to face a team with a winning record or a really good offense. One thing is for sure- they can run the hell out of the ball & the Colts can't stop the run. IMO the season is on the line for the Colts, & Peyton is coming off his worst performance of the year. I will not fade him. Last season's meeting in Ten the Colts edged the Titans 22-20. Peyton threw for 312 & the Titans ran for 141. Nothing to get out of the second meeting, as it was the last game of the season & Peyton played a little more than 1 quarter. The Titans run game is better than ever, & I think the only way the Colts even stand a chance is to score points. The best offense the Titans have faced was probably Houston, who had plenty of scoring opportunities but kept turning the ball over in the redzone. Looks to be the start of the toughest stretch for Tenn, as they are home vs Indy, GB, then @Chi, @Jax. After that the schedule looks fairly easy.

All everyone is talking about is how 1 dimensional the Colts offense is, but the Titans are also 1 dimensional. The Titans have the 30th ranked passing offense. Indy can't stop the run, as they are ranked #29 giving up 4.5 ypc, but they have been tested by decent rushing teams. 4 of the 6 teams the Colts have faced are in the top 15 rushing offenses in the league. Indy will be the best passing offense that the Titans will have faced. I can't say the same for the Titans pass D. The Titans have not faced a great qb all season- I'll give you Shaub, but Houston left 14+ pts on field. They were inside the Titan's 15 yard line 6 times & came away with 12 total points. Shaub threw 3 ints. After that it's #17 ranked Minny, #20 Jags, #27 Ravens, #28 KC & #31 Bengals. I would consider Minny & Baltimore as pretty 1 dimensional offensively, & Indy beat them. It's a big if, but if Indy stops the Tenn run, they win. If Indy jumps ahead quickly, & the Titans are forced to throw to catch up, & they are in trouble. Indy still has the #2 passing defense.

Titans have a great run game/Indy has a terrible run D




Perception vs reality

Titans have allowed 6 rushing tds

so have the Colts!



Leaning hard on Indy team o18. GB is the only game they didn't get over that number, thanks to 2 ints. Indy stays turnover free & IMO they win su....

[Stifler's Mom]

But the things is, if you look beyond the stats....have you actually watched the smallish Indy team get pushed all over the field? There are defenders in Peyton's face on practically every throw. That's just something we haven't seen in the past. Teams run on them because they blow them off the ball....and i don't see why TEN can't do that as well.

In the end, running the ball and playing solid defense wins games, and Indy can't do either. That's all it comes down to for me.

Plus, you see Indy and Peyton catching +4/+160ish on the ml against a team that the public (myself included) clearly hasn't bought into as an undefeated team or serious contender. That screams sucker bet....to me anyway.....