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Great one last week, let's keep it up :thumbs:
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Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends... -
Plenty of big homedawgs this week. By my count the road faves are 17-10 ats this year.
Tenn @ KC +8
SD @ Buf +1
Pitt @ Cinci +9.5
Dal -7 @ StL
NYJ @ Oak +3
Ind @ GB +1.5
In looking at these games, I try to look at respectable home teams (Buf, GB), and teams giving points on the road that aren't good (NYJ). As much as I hate betting against SD, Buf is coming off a bye week and should have Edwards and Parrish in this game. With concern to Oak, I've about had it laying on them as homedawgs and am not falling into that trap again, I don't care how bad my opinion of NYJ is. Indy and GB is a coinflip imo, which will probably lead me to stay away from that as well. Croyle is expected back for KC, and something tells me they get up for this game against undefeated Tenn, and 8 is alot for a team like Tenn to cover. I still like Dallas giving the 7, Johnson should take care of the ball much better than Romo. -
Already got down on a couple that I thought the line would move on....
Browns/Skins o42-120
Bought the hook. I know many aren't down with buying hooks, but IMO NFL totals are pretty sharp, & the difference between a push & a win/loss is that hook. Totals go up/down as the week progresses, so it's important to get the best number possible. I got the worst of the Dallas/Cards total, & got very lucky pulling out the win. I also waited as long as I could on the Packers/Seahawks over, & what would have been a loss was a push. JMO, but at the end of everyday I look up my total $$$ risked and it's always less than $$$ to win, so I guess it evens out. Enough about that....
After the MNF game & Skins loss to the Rams, I think there will be a ton of love for the Browns. I think situation wise it doesn't get much worse for Clev. Pretty obvious the Giants didn't show up, Cleveland controlled the TOP & won the turnover battle. On the other hand the Skins turned the ball over 3 times & lost despite rushing for 181 yds/5.8 ypc. It was a rough situation for the Skins last week after two huge wins- now it's a letdown situation for the Browns & after the Giants loss I'm sure the Skins will want to put the hammer down here. Those are just initial thoughts, but regardless I think the over is the best option here.
The Browns offensive line (when not getting penalized) gave Anderson great protection. Their run blocking was great as well. Once Derek started looking comfortable in the pocket, the offense started flowing. Jamal Lewis had a couple runs at the end that took me back to his days with Balty- putting his head down & finishing runs, making guys pay. Stallworth's presence really opened up the field for Braylon, who had a standout game despite dropping an easy one. . I do have my concerns about the penalties, but not enough to talk me out of the play.
The Skins have a great offensive line as well, so you have two offenses that I expect to give the QB good protection. Wash should be able to get the ground game going, & if Campbell gets good protection, he'll find the open wr. IMO the Browns will come with a similar defensive gameplan- constant pressure by bringing the blitz from different angles. Leaves some big playmakers with one-on-one coverage. Washington is flat out nasty in the ground game, & if they get a hole through a blitz, they will run all day. Look at what they did vs Zona, NO & Rams! IMO that is the class I would place the Browns defense among. Their secondary will definitely try to jump a route & make the big play, but that also leaves them vulnerable.They benefitted from Eli turnovers, & could have easily surrendered 14-17 more points. Very tough for me to imagine either team not getting to 20, even if both offenses look to play ball control. Could be lower scoring to start, but once defenses wear down, pts get scored. I also like that there are big playmakers on either side in special teams... Cribbs is dueChampagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...Comment
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Makes me think that some homedogs will start barking!
Situation wise, this game favors Buffalo imo. SD off a huge win vs a vastly overrated Pats team who didn't even show up. Buffalo off a bye & blowout loss @Zona in a terrible spot. They're not sure Roscoe will play, he did practice yesterday but is wearing a protective glove & trying to get used to it. Because of the nature of the injury, I highly doubt he would be returning any punts... I don't know what to think in this game yet. SD has a better offense than every team the Bills faced other than Zona. Zona made the defense look sad, & the Bills haven't fared too well when facing a 3-4 D. That being said, not sold on the Chargers D....
Rams in a letdown spot, Dallas should run the ball effectively. Dallas D will have to do something though....Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...Comment
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I like Dallas. The injury helped me with that game, as it was probably a no-play initially. I like them -6.5 with Johnson rather than -10.5 with Romo! Ever since the news came out, the public seems to be betting the homedog pretty hard (60%?). Over-reaction. Dallas should play a ball control type of offense, and not try and go for the home run all the time (which seem to always lead to Romo INTs and scramble induced fumbles). That could be a good thing. Slants to T.O and Crayton. Short posession passes to Witten. Dump offs and screens to Barber. Lots of run plays against the horrible run defense of the Rams who is ranked 30th, and gave up another 181 yards to the Skins.
We also have STL coming off that big road win...totally set-up for a home letdown. One win does not make them a good team....they are still horrible and needed everything to go right to stay in that Wash game...including a long fumble recovery for a TD, and 3 fumble recoverys overall. STL also had only 200 yards of offense, and was outgained severely. 124 passing. Brutal. 76 rushing. Brutal. 8 offensive first downs. No offensive TDs. Pathetic. Jackson only had 79 yards. And all this coming off a bye? This is still a bad offensive team, and a bad defensive team. I think Dallas throttles them coming off their own loss, and getting sub-TD number because of Brad Johnson is a gift, IMO. No sold on the Dallas defence obviously, but I don't think STL is exactly the team to expose that they way they have been performing, win or no win.
Other than that... not my favourite week at first glance...I'm liking an Indy/GB over and TB laying a ton at home against the brutal Seahawks (who seem to be a beautiful fade every week!).
I looked at Oakland as a homedog, but all they do is run the ball, and the Jet's weakness in in their secondary, not their run defence.Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 10-14-2008, 11:37 AM.Comment
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Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...Comment
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Yeah... letdowns will happen, but I like that Gruden is at the helm...I would hope he is the type of coach that doesn't let that happen. Also...this game is in prime-time, with Madden in the house, so I would tend to throw any letdown out the window, as the Bucs players and fans don't get that opportunity often. This is a special game in that area...bad news for Seattle IMO.
Also bad news for Seneca Wallace. He'll be making his 5th career start, and first start in 2 years, and coming off an injury that's had him sidelined, playing in a very tough spot, against a good defensive team.
The Bucs could be the best home team in football. Real solid, and well balanced. Run the ball well, and play great defence (11 points against at home). They've dominated all three home games. Including a blowout of the much-respected Panthers. Seattle could be the worst road team in years, getting absolutely demolished at NYG & Buf, and are in a world of hurt. They now play in the East once again, and the farthest bloody road trip possible. lol. This one gets ugly...and is a public-backed, huge home fave that cashes easily, IMO.Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 10-14-2008, 11:34 AM.Comment
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I can't really say how, but I think the Packers find a way to win that game. The made their statement and took advantage of a rookie qb on his 2nd road game, but playing in GB is a different story for me. Addai's health is still a concern and I just have a weird feeling the colts aren't totally fixed. According the wagerline, 77% on IND -1. With that many on one side, I feel like they are just missing something. The line is begging for colts money sort of like the bills +1 against the cardinals a few weeks ago. The linesmakers want IND money in my opinion.Comment
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No letdown in the TB game, as it is in prime-time. Rarely do I like to play games in which the spread is double digits, and this is the first of the season that has really stood out to me. I think TB -10.5 is a great play this weekend, and fade Seattle until proven otherwise imo.Comment
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felix jones is out 1-2 weeks also so it should be the marion barber show.Comment
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Palmer out again...Fitzpatrick gets to face the Steelers...Comment
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Orlando Pace out for the Rams, leaving Bulger even more vulnerable against Dallas' pass rush? Dallas has 15 sacks already! STL has given up 15 with Pace, and could be in trouble without him...Comment
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Kitna either going on IR or being traded. Now if the Lions just fix their O line, D line, secondary, linebackers, running game, dropped passes, and of course they've gone from one career backup qb to another:laughing:Comment
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