Week 6 Discussion

[FlyersFan]

did pretty well with my early thoughts last week so wanted to get some thoughts on a couple of games....

CIN +6...........i honestly think they win this game SU. If i could grab 7 i would feel even better. Probably worth a ML play, IMO too.

SDG -6............for a team that was supposed to be in the Super Bowl or have a chance, they've played like **** this year. Here we go again with another must win at home. NEP heading west for a 2nd straight week and not sure they cover B2B weeks. If you like the pick the winner thing then i like SDG here.

JAX/DEN Under 48 1/2............i just think this line is high by about 4-5 points. If you like the Over i would say that DEN is the play then because the only way i can see JAX staying in this one is keeping it a 23-17, 23-20 sort of game. Otherwise if it becomes a shootout i like DEN. I think they have more weapons. both teams have sucked ass vs. the number ATS at 1-4 so something has to give.


also wanted to hear some thoughts on that CHI/ATL game. ATL grabbing 2 1/2 looks great if they are the same team that won on the road last week in GB. CHI is playing some good football, though.

DAL/ARI Over49/50........The other intriguing game is the DAL/ARI game at ARI +5/50. DAL doesn't seem to be able to stop anyone and that doesn't bode well for laying 5 points against a team that has scored 20+ points in i believe 12 of their L13 games total and in 13 straight at home dating back to 2006. Total at 50 looks kind of steep but if ARI gets into the 20's again i don't see why this doesn't go over the total. But playing overs in games with 50 point totals isn't exaclty a recipe for success. I could see a 30-24/30-27/27-24 type of game here which makes me lean over even though the total is kind of high. Felt the same way last week about IND/HOU and that one managed to get over the total.

[hodown]

Dolphins @ Texans -3
Haven't seen Mia play since the NYJ game, but it seems like they've done a 180. Mia coming off solid wins @ NE and at home vs. SD, in a game where SD travels across country on a second straight road game. Hou is not nearly as bad as their 0-4 record indicates, having played @ Pit, @ Ten, @ Jax, and Indy. Statistically Mia's SOS is higher, but I'm not sure how. Hou has been competitive in 3 straight, and I look for them to get redemption in front of the homecrowd after pissing on themselves in the last 4 minutes against Indy. I just dont trust Mia in this spot.

Bears -1 @ Falcons
Posting this at what I got it at Sunday night, understand its at -3 some places. I'm sure Atl will be the play for most smart bettors as a homedawg, because they can run the ball and play decent defense. Public hammering Chi but no surprise there. Being a Bears fan it could be a homer play, but I won't hesitate for one second to bet against them. Unlike other years, the rush defense for Chi is actually the strength, while they are getting gashed through the air. Chi forces Ryan to beat them, which I dont think hes ready to do just yet. Orton continues to get better on the off side of the ball for Chi, and they are averaging 26 points a game. Atl defense giving up 4.5 ypc, which wont get it done against a team that likes to run the ball. Solid win by Atl last week but I dont think they come up with two in a row. 24-17 type game for Chi imo.

Cowboys -5 @ Cards and over 50
Cowboys are 7-1-1 in the Romo era as a road fave of 7 or less. I'm sure the books know this and are trying to figure out a number that will even the action cuz they know the general public will jump on Dallas. 5 is a lot considering Dal defense this year, but I'm picking the winner. Defenses are very similar (crappy), and Dallas has the edge in offensive rushing. Arizona wont stop Dallas imo, and Ari is too one dimensional to put up the number of points they'll need to in order to win. I dont think Dallas is the class of the NFC, but I dont think theyll get trapped by Ariz either, b/c they're last two results have been less than desirable. I trust in Romo more than I trust in Warner.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I don't think I've backed Cincy in 2 years, but I might this week. Would love a full TD. Cincy has actually hung with Dallas, Cle, NYG & Bal this year. Palmer looks to be getting healthier, likely the reason for all his early struggles. And the Bengals might actually matchup well against Farve and the Jets one-dimensional offence with their surprising 6th ranked pass defence. Jets likely over-valued after Farve's much publicized 6 TD afternoon at home against a bad Zona secondary.

Also looking at backing Houston coming off that heartbreaker playing again at home looking for their first win. Oddsmakers must think the Texans win this one making a winless team lay a FG against a team with consecutive wins over high-profile teams.

I'll probably also be forced to fade Seattle again this week, even with GB coming in with 3 straight losses. I had a feeling the Hawks were going to take a huge step back this year, but they are still getting some line respect from past sucesses. How they can be favoured against anyone except STL/DET is beyond me. GB needs to stop their losing streak, and I think they do it.

[SRN1985]

Dal -5 looks like the best play on board...I still think we haven't see the full explosiveness of their offense and if Zona doesn't put points on the board early...it could get ugly for them.


I also lean to Cincy as well as I believe the pick-up a W this sunday...but dallas is the only play I've already put in.


GL

[FlyersFan]

I don't think I've backed Cincy in 2 years

except week 1 vs. the Ravens.......:beerbang:......trying to distance yourself from your early bengals play this year.....:ohman:

like your reasoning a lot on the HOU game, though, seems like everyone is on it which i never like......

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

except week 1 vs. the Ravens.......:beerbang:......trying to distance yourself from your early bengals play this year.....:ohman:
...

:laughing: Did I? Musta been a fade of the Ravens.
Maybe I should learn from that result!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Dal -5 looks like the best play on board...I still think we haven't see the full explosiveness of their offense and if Zona doesn't put points on the board early...it could get ugly for them.


I also lean to Cincy as well as I believe the pick-up a W this sunday...but dallas is the only play I've already put in.


GL

yeah...****....I'll probably be on Dallas as well... :bang:

[Underdog88]

Agree with the Zona over- with Boldin out Breaston & Doucet have stepped it up, & Dallas secondary is not good. Thinking both teams get 24 each at least.



Totally disagree with the Texans. IMO they have to be favored since they are at home & nearly beat the Colts. Though the Fins just beat NE & SD, they still seem to be flying under the radar. Great run defense, allowing just 3.3 ypc/ 82 ypg. Houston rushed for 156 vs Indy, I don't think that happens vs the Fins. IMO teams that stop the run will be able to beat the Dolphins, & Houston doesn't fall into that category (next week, the Ravens will beat the ever loving **** out of the Dolphins). In Miami's first two losses, they didn't have a rusher over 28 yards. In their last two wins, Brown went for 113 vs NE, & 125 vs SD. The Texans are allowing 4.5/140 ypg! Addai averaged over 4 ypc last week vs Houston, I would expect a ton of running from the Fish. Leaning heavily on the Dolphins ML there.

I am also likely laying the points with the Chargers @ home. Was hoping for a softer line, but at least it's under a td.



Just started looking into totals....

[hodown]

Hou has been giving up 4.5 ypc which is less than stellar. However, they're only giving up 4.1 ypc to opposing teams rbs. The difference in the numbers is subtracting qb scrambling and wr reverses. Parker definitely got to Hou in the first game, but since then Hou has only given up 3.76 ypc to rbs, or 84 ypg. I guess I'm massaging numbers to help my point of view, but I think they'll do better than their numbers indicate being at home, and that defense held the Colts to 10 until 4:00 left

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Hou has been giving up 4.5 ypc which is less than stellar. However, they're only giving up 4.1 ypc to opposing teams rbs. The difference in the numbers is subtracting qb scrambling and wr reverses. Parker definitely got to Hou in the first game, but since then Hou has only given up 3.76 ypc to rbs, or 84 ypg. I guess I'm massaging numbers to help my point of view, but I think they'll do better than their numbers indicate being at home, and that defense held the Colts to 10 until 4:00 left

Yeah, I was surprised to see that Hou defensive rushing stat from UD, because watching that whole game last week, Houston looked amazing against the run for the most part of that game. Addai could do absolutely nothing at all. In fact the CBS put up numerous stats, and talked numerous times about how good the Hou run defence was playing that day, forcing Peyton to throw, even on rushing downs. That Texans defence was dominant against the Colts, and will be fine against Miami, IMO.

This game reminds me alot of the Zona win last week. The road team coming in on a high (last week: Buff 4-0, this game: Miami 2 straight wins over BIG name teams), playing a home team coming off a couple tough losses (last week: Zona off two bad road losses including the 6 TD Farve show, this game: Houston winless with two late losses against Jax/Ind in their last two).

I also don't think it hurts to have Schaub coming back after watching last game. He must have confidence in his team looking in from the bench, and seeing them take it to Indy, and the week off might help his play too.

IMO they are a decent team with no luck. I mean, look at their schedule. 3 road games in Jax/Pit/Ten. A hurricane. Pretty damn brutal. Then finally a home game against Peyton Manning where the dominate the game for 55 minutes. I'll call that a win for capping purposes. I'll be on Houston, as they don't let this home game slip away.

[Stifler's Mom]

IMHO, Arizona being home dogged to Dallas is a joke. I know i'm in the minority here from what I've been reading, but I think absolutely the wrong team is favored there. Arizona's offense might be BETTER than the Cowboys, or nearly as good. In addition, Dallas is the 3rd best team in their own division!! There's no question that to this point NYG and WASH have been far superior.

Both QB's are ******* turnover machines though, and that disturbs me....but Dallas IS without a doubt overrated this year due to last year's success and a big offense.

Dickhead Owens is starting his same old **** again, and the Cowboys will plummet as a result. They've done nothing this year to earn that 4-1 record, as every team they have beaten is average or just plain ****ty (CLE and CIN? Gimme a break!! Even GB ain't really ****, and PHI hasn't looked too hot either). IMO Dallas is still riding last year's reputation, and for them to be almost a TD road fave against a team with as many or more weapons as them on offense is wrong.

In addition, Arizona is young and hungry and playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed at the NYJ, and imo beats Dallas outright, possibly by double digits if the 'Boys play at the same level that they have so far this year.

Arizona +6 was another one of those "holy ****, i can't believe this line" situations for me when I saw it....much like the NYG only laying a measly -7 to the ****hawks last week, and that'll be the game imo that breaks up everyone's parlays and teasers when Arizona wins outright....as there's at least one of them just about every week where a fave gets pounded in the arse and loses outright, and usually a road fave that looks like an easy winner to Joe Q Pub. Off the top of my head there have been DEN @ KC 2 wks ago, PHI @ home to WSH and SD @ MIA this week. "America's team" over the "****ty Cardinals who have sucked since they came into existace" without a doubt fits this to a "T".

The only way Arizona doesn't cover, imo, is if they kill themselves with turnovers, which of course is certainly possibly considering who their QB is, lol....but nevertheless, that is without a doubt my favorite play on the board this week. I would 100% certainly take Arizona all the way to -3, and would strongly consider them to -7.

I too must admit that I think the Bungles get win #1 this week and that I will probably be forced to play them, as I think the Jets suck as bad or worse as CIN, lol, and I think SD waxes NE also with what, quadruple revenge at this point? Beating SF with 2 weeks to prepare doesn't exactly prove to me NE is back on the map, and I think they fall on their faces again this week.

Well those are the 3 that jumped out to me at first glance over the card. I'll have to do my homework on the rest i guess, lol

[FlyersFan]

ARI has actually won like 12 of L13 at home or something like that.......and put up 20+ points in 13 straight home games. Im still not sold on their D, though, and i think the Over is the best play of all in this one. DAL will get their points as will ARI here.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'll probably also be forced to fade Seattle again this week, even with GB coming in with 3 straight losses. I had a feeling the Hawks were going to take a huge step back this year, but they are still getting some line respect from past sucesses. How they can be favoured against anyone except STL/DET is beyond me. GB needs to stop their losing streak, and I think they do it.

GB pretty banged up however... might lay off...

[FlyersFan]

i am going to make a play on SDG this week and the Over in the ARI game. Anyone have a feel for which way those lines may go? Neither one has moved in the last 24 hours. I am also jumping on the Mean Machine this week, but that line is +6 still and something tells me i might even catch a 7 later in the week or by the weekend.

[Stifler's Mom]

I think you will be able to get at least -5.5 on SD if you are patient and shop around. the public seems to like NE and the points...and after last week, i can see why, although I think they're wrong.

There's 86% on the ARI/DAL over right now. I can get it at 49.5 (SIA), but most places are already @ 50. It opened at 48.5, and I doubt the public is gonna do too much betting on the under in that game, so i really doubt it goes lower than what it is now, and 51 certainly isn't out of the question imo if the public keeps hammering the over.

No idea what CIN/NYJ will do. 2 bad teams, and it's hard to really figure who is going to piut their money where....but since it hasn't moved down yet, i doubt it will. I think you can wait that out and see if it goes up, and still at the very worst get +6 on game day.

Just some guesses judging by early public %'s and what the lines have done so far...