Week 6 Discussion

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

UD, lol!


Rethinking Indy/Balt. I think I like the Ravens getting 4/4.5. My only reasoning for Indy earlier was that they were "due" for a "colt-like" performance at home? lol...weak.

Facts are, they cannot run the ball, they cannot stop the run worth a ****. They are dead last in both catagories. Making things worse is the fact they will be missing starting LB Session this week, and Dwight Freeney is likely out as well. The Colts OLine is weak, and now their defence is even weaker. The Colts without Saunders already. Now another linebacker, and maybe Freeney?

The Ravens CAN run the ball, and should all day against the Colts defence! The Ravens CAN play defence, ranked #1 in the league, and should manhandle the Colts OLine, and frustrate Manning with pressure, as well as providing good coverage by one of the top secondaries. It's simply the basics of football = the Ravens should be able to control the clock. How many times do the best and worst running games (on BOTH sides of the ball) meet up?

At 2-2, Balitmore has been in every game, and their two losses were both against good teams (Pit/Ten), and were only by a measly FG (a cover and push). I'm not in love with Flacco, but with the way they should be able to run the ball, he just needs to be "OK". I think he will be, especially without Freeney bothering him. I really think this is a sucker line for the home Colts, even though they matchup horribly against Baltimore...and I believe it is mostly because of the theory I originally posted halfassed....that the "Colts are due" at home. **** that. This is a team that could (should?) be 0-4, and are in a bad matchup. Peyton is not god.

Love the Ravens this week, and I never like the Ravens! Hate the Colts this week, and I rarely hate the Colts! lol...that tells me it's the right side. :thumbs:

Also...isn't 60% of the public on Indy, and the line has gone from -6 to -4, and still dropping?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I too lean GB, but I am starting to think the over may be the better option- or even the Packers team total. Seattle D has been terrible, allowing 523 total yards offense to NYG (254 on the ground), 365 to SF, 338 to Buffalo. 30+ pts allowed in 3 of their 4 games. Their pass D has allowed 7 tds just 1 int, & a 8.4 average pass completion! The only time Seattle has been able to score is when they got the rushing attack going. This is my main concern with backing the Packers, as they continue to be unable to stop the run. 5.1 ypc/161 per game is just terrible, & with Hasselchoke banged up you can bet there will be plenty of focus on the run game. Not that Seattle is that much better vs the run, allowing 4.6/129.5 per game. Seattle was able to run well in 2 games (169 rushing SF/245 vs St Louis), I would put GB in the same grouping as these 2 when it comes to run stopping. They were blown out when Buff & NYG shut the run down ... they also got Ingram back, which at this point is huge. Both teams are in a must win situation, I think it results in a bunch of scoring.

Funny...I was thinking the same thing. I've been totally off the packers side play for a couple days, but the Over might be enticing. I think both teams air it out...(Hasselbeck pending)

[hodown]

How exactly is Seattle giving points to GB??? They are 1-3 with the only win coming against the worst team in the NFL, and in the other 3 games they gave up 34 @ Buffalo, 33 at home to SF, and 44 @ NYG. The Seattle defense is 27th overall, 25th against the pass, and 24th against the run.

GB with the 11th best total offense and Rodgers will play. GB has not been stellar against the rush, but Seattle won't take advantage. GB has lost 3 in a row, but two of them they were suppose to lose, and the other loss was to a capable team in Atlanta, that provides a bad matchup groundwise.

The over makes a nice play provided that Seattle can hold up their end of the bargain, but the only possible advantage for Seattle I can see is that they are at home. Seattle isn't making the playoffs and they know it, GB still has a chance. I think the game is bigger for GB, I think they're the better team (though they are both dinged up), and they're getting points.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Can't seem to pull the trigger on the Bears- really like them, but my concerns are....

1. This is the Bears 2nd straight road game-always tough to win 2 consecutive roadies.

2. Line dropped down to 2, I kind of expected it to sit at 3 & it's seemingly begging for Bears money.

3. I hate playing against home dogs.

Bears are my favourite play of the week.

They played consecutive road game to start the year...beat Indy, then really hung tough in Carolina against a very good Panthers team. Atlanta is not very good.

Not sure where you're seeing 2. The lines I see at the 5 or 6 books I check are all +3 juiced or +2.5 dogged. Pinny opened at -1, and is now at -3 +109. Works out to pretty much the same, or movement slightly against the Bears. There probably isn't huge movement b/c of the Falcons being back home after a win over the popular Packers (although I think the win isn't as solid as some b/c of Packer injuries).

Falcons are strictly a running team with a below average defence. bears stop the run with the best of 'em, and have a very much improved offence with Orton at QB this year. No brainer for me.

[Underdog88]

Total has dropped in that one too. Just waiting to see if Hasselbeck is a definite go. If not, I may just be on the Pack team over. Currently it's 21.5, would love the flat 21 though.


Cards are 6.5 @ Betus. I think I have to play it... maybe I can get +7

[Underdog88]

Not sure where you're seeing 2. The lines I see at the 5 or 6 books I check are all +3 juiced or +2.5 dogged. Pinny opened at -1, and is now at -3 +109. Works out to pretty much the same, or movement slightly against the Bears. There probably isn't huge movement b/c of the Falcons being back home after a win over the popular Packers (although I think the win isn't as solid as some b/c of Packer injuries).

Earlier today I saw 5Dimes had them -2-115 available, right now-2-120. Betus has the Bears now @-3.5. Whatever, I'm playing them :sm:

[Underdog88]

GB has not been stellar against the rush, but Seattle won't take advantage.

Seattle isn't making the playoffs and they know it, GB still has a chance. I think the game is bigger for GB, I think they're the better team (though they are both dinged up), and they're getting points.

Playing devil's advocate here, but exactly why won't Seattle take advantage? They did against STL (245) & SF (169) in their other home games. SF statistically has a better run D than GB!

I still wouldn't be so sure Seattle is out of contention for the playoffs in that abortion of a division. Zona has their tougher games on deck & could go 8-8. Who knows what SF really is. Looks like the game is now a pickem....

[hodown]

My book still has +1.5 but same thing pretty much. Youre right they could take advantage, but they'll need to take advantage in a rather large way to keep up with GB imo. Seattle is technically in the race still b/c we are so early, but they've shown no signs as of yet that they're going to start playing some football.

I'm just not sure what linesmakers are seeing out of them. A pick-the-winner last wknd at the NYG??? The public isnt exactly pounding GB (sans WL and SB), but I wouldn't picture Seattle getting anymore money if they were a +3 instead of opening at a -3. It just seems like an odd line is what I'm saying.

[hodown]

looks like Palmer is out...

[Underdog88]

I'm seeing Palmer is questionable, damn him. I needed a qb so I traded Slaton/Garrard for Maroney/Palmer. How dumb. Got garrard back from waivers, but I gave up Slaton for basically nothing now. :puke:



One other thing about GB/Sea- AJ Hawk may not play. If he is out, IMO GB is in trouble....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Report: Winslow has swollen testacles

From Roto:

A league source tells Profootballtalk.com that Kellen Winslow's "unspecified illness" is swollen testicles.

Yikes. No one has ever accused Winslow of lacking big cajones, and they certainly won't now. Okay, probably a matter to joke about. A team source reportedly told the Cleveland Plain Dealer that they still expect Winslow to play. Winslow practiced Monday, but has since been held out of workouts. Cautiously keep Winslow in your lineup and wait for more news

:laughing:

[Daws1089]

westbrook, sean andrews, and reggie brown are all out for the eagles. Kevin Curtis is expected to get some action.


Anyone else think the rams are worth looking at? I know they are god awful and dont deserve anyones money, but I have a hard time believing the skins get up for this game. I can see this game also staying low scoring and a win no cover for wash.


I also see the public likes carolina. In a division game with two good defenses playing eachother, both teams favor the run, and garcia is back in for TB. I like the under a lot, but I think TB is worth a look too. Carolina has been flying high, but I just don't know if I can play them. It could be best to just go with the under as I'm having a hard time with a side.


Haven't seen anyone talk about the bengals/jets really. Fitspatrick is in, but I still think the bengals can win. Not sure if I like the total, but lean to the under.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Eagles lead the league in sacks, SF leads the league in sacks allowed. I like the Philly defence to win this game for the Eagles, and I have McNabb having a big day against that bad Niner defence, Westbrook or not...

[Underdog88]

I really think this is a sucker line for the home Colts, even though they matchup horribly against Baltimore...and I believe it is mostly because of the theory I originally posted halfassed....that the "Colts are due" at home. **** that. This is a team that could (should?) be 0-4, and are in a bad matchup. Peyton is not god.

I'm going to be a sucker today & roll with the Colts. I faded them vs Jax & grabbed the Texans last week @+5.5, but I think this is a statement game for them. Bought -3-120 earlier in the week & I'm keeping it. Though the obvious problem with the Colts defensively is the run D, I don't trust Flacco in his first dome road game vs the Colts. No surprises when the Colts throw 8 in the box & the Ravens run 38 times. The Colts run D has been this bad before, they were worse in 2006 when they won the SB (allowing 5.3 ypc). The Vikings were in a better spot to beat the Colts earlier this year, having the best run d, a better run game than Balty & being @ home. The Colts still won. Bottom line the Ravens will have to show some kind of offensive balance to have a shot at winning, & there will be some situations where Flacco will need to step up. After looking long at the total, I have to trust the linesmakers & lay off. I want so badly to play the over, but it seems too easy to me. I do think if anyone is sold on the Ravens, I would think the over is the better option. As good as the Ravens D is, Peyton is better. The biggest thing I like about backing the Colts is that they are never out of a game. Peyton is not god, but he is the best qb I have ever seen play the game of football. He's also getting back into the flow of things, I think the Marvin connection could get back on track today.

[Underdog88]

***Injury Report***


Looks like Hasselbeck won't play today, Frye will take his place. Line hasn't reacted yet which tells me the books are taking a stand on Seattle. With frye in I can no longer contemplate the over. I think if Seattle wins it's from the ground game anyway.....


Judging from practice, it looks like Freeney & Sesson will both play. They are both listed as questionable, but participated in full practice on Friday....