Week 6 Discussion

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'd hit the Over right now. It's gone from 48.5 to 49.5 at all my places...and will likely be 50/50.5 by gametime!

I'd wait on the Chargers and Bengals.

SD has gone to 5.5 already from all I can see, and we might get 5 by gametime. Like Stif says, Pats off their first good win, getting points, it'll move in our favour.

Bengals line should go to 6.5, and I might buy to 7 regardless. Farve off a 6 TD afternoon, facing the hapless Bengals. I see 63% on NY right now.

[FlyersFan]

stif/JML- thanks........i just put in the over play and holding off on the other 2 plays. may also see if i can get a team Over on the Cards as that should be discounted with a total at 50 and ARI -5....should be able to get about 22 1/2 on ARI which is a steal, IMO. Probably a better play than the game over.

[FlyersFan]

I didn't want to corrupt JML's thread with Eagles talk but.......

The Eagles best defensive game was when they faced off against the human sleestak and the steelers. That dude moves like a concrete statue and they just teed off on him that night. But i really wasn't impresssed with the Eagles D vs. the Bears or the Redskins, especially in the 2H vs. the Skins. They gave up almost 400 yards to Washington. Not to mention they couldn't come close to stopping DAL in that game in week 2. SF has a capable offense, but a suspect D i do agree. This is also a huge game for the 49'ers as that division they are in is junk, IMO even with ARI playing well. So it could be argued that it is a must win for them as well. It's hard to trigger a team that just gave up 200 yards on the ground and facing a good back like Gore.

Butttt....they do have a large statistical advantage on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball in terms of yardage and PPG for and against. I really would like to play the Eagles but they've really only played one good defensive game this year and that was versus pittsburgh (not counting STL who just sucks......i could round up 10 dudes from here and we could hold STL to 7 points).

[Underdog88]

Anyone have a take on Baltimore/Indy?


I have a hard time believing the Colts will fall to 0-3 at home. The Ravens have dropped 2 in a row, & now have to go on the road after a late collapse. The Colts managed to pull out the win @ Houston despite being outplayed for 85% of the game. Have to think the Colts have an edge motivation wise. The Ravens have a great defense, but if you ask me this total is set way too low. I'm seeing 38.5, which looks flat out silly for a Colts game. The Ravens held Pitt to 168 passing yards/69 rushing, but the Steelers still managed to score 23 points. Leaning Colts & over.



IMO there are some very inflated inflated lines this week....


Raiders+7.5- Exactly what has NO shown this season to be favored by 7.5? They beat SF by 14 & TB by 4. The Raiders got blown out by Denver in week 1, but have since been in every game. They ran all over KC, nearly beat the Bills on the road & blew the cover vs SD. I will give NO the edge in the passing game, given they are #1 in the NFL. However, if there's one very positive thing about JaMarcus it's that he's thrown just one int. The Saints are careless with the football, & to me that's a red flag when thinking about laying points. Oakland has a solid pass defense, allowing 212 5tds/ 5 ints. The Saints 244 7tds/ 4 ints. When it comes to the run game, Oakland has the potential to get to the Saints. Oakland is averaging 4.8 ypc/155 per game vs a D that's giving up 4.5 ypc/ 105 per game. The Vikings IMO were very predictable with the run game. Oakland has been good at using Bush out of the backfield, something Minny didn't do at all....


Detroit+13 God they are terrible. But 13 in a divisional game? Looks like an overreaction to both the Lions beating at the hands of the Bears & the Vikings win @NO. The Vikings pass D is the weakness, something the Lions should be able to exploit. Brees threw for 330 yards & it looked rather easy. Turnovers will be the difference here. I just don't think this line is right.... high number total wise, but I really can't make much of a case for the under.

[Underdog88]

Bears-2.5 over the Falcons. I hate small road chalk, but the Bears have a great defense vs the run, allowing 74 ypg. Situationally the Falcons are in a letdown spot after winning su as dogs @GB. Linesmakers are saying something by making the Bears faves. The Falcons go as Turner does, just look at their wins/losses....


Turner in Falcons wins

220 vs Lions
104 vs KC
121 vs GB


Turner in losses

42 @TB
56 @Car


I would put the Bears defense in the second category. Defensively, the Falcons are still very weak vs the run, allowing 4.6ypc/ 125. Chicago lost to 2 solid defensive teams @Carolina & vs TB, both by 3 points. They have been very impressive on the road so far this season, & with the advantage in the ground game I'll likely roll with them here...

[Underdog88]

Another inflated line is the Giants. I'll be on the Browns for sure...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I might be forced into a Colts play as well, as I have been fading the Ravens all year, and I agree that the Colts are due for a Colt-like performance at home.

Raiders would definitely be the play in that game, but I'm leaving it alone. Wouldn't surprise me if Brees went off at home after last week.

I wouldn't play Detroit if I was getting 20 points. They don't compete worth ****, and Minny is starting to roll...especially on defence...and Minny has looked good at home. I was in the early talk about playing Detroit last week, but wisely thought better of it. I'll do the same this week. It's not like Detroit plays tough, competes hard, and covers the number from time to time. They are 0-4 ATS this year, and have only won ATS ONCE in their last 12 games. Better games on the board, IMO. Why risk money on a bad team on the road playing a good defence.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Another inflated line is the Giants. I'll be on the Browns for sure...

Me too...waiting on that one... :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Bears-2.5 over the Falcons.

Like the Bears too. Looks like we're on the same page this week. :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

That's good because I'm due dammit:bitching:

[hodown]

dont put your hard earned money on the lions. the line is huge but ****, detroit has lost by 13, 23, 18, and 27, to four teams that might be worse than the vikings. minny still in a must win situation at 2-3, id lay off that.

you make a good point on the colts, and the line continues to drop. i prob wont play a side because i am 0-3 against balt so far, but i dont think the colts move to 0-3 either.

im itching to fade denver, but the jax defense sure isnt doing much. i still think a small moneyline play isnt a bad bet

[hodown]

Starting to re-think Dallas -5. Dallas really has done nothing this year to earn a -5 spot on the road @ Arizona where they have won 7 of their last 9 at home. I still think Dallas is the better team and it is a pick the winner situation, but I'm thinking there may be better plays on the board than this one.

[Underdog88]

That Texans defence was dominant against the Colts, and will be fine against Miami, IMO.

This game reminds me alot of the Zona win last week. The road team coming in on a high (last week: Buff 4-0, this game: Miami 2 straight wins over BIG name teams), playing a home team coming off a couple tough losses (last week: Zona off two bad road losses including the 6 TD Farve show, this game: Houston winless with two late losses against Jax/Ind in their last two).


IMO they are a decent team with no luck.

(in the voice of Samuel L Jackson)....Oh wait, you're finished? Oh well than allow me to retort!



I was on the Texans last week as I liked the situation & though Houston could run on Indy- luckily I got a nice inflated line & bought a half to cover that debacle. I wouldn't go so far as to say the D dominated the Colts. The Colts averaged over 4 ypc, but they abandoned the run (17 run plays). There are some glaring differences between the Miami & Colts offense. The Colts aren't getting any protection for Manning, and are dead last in the NFL for rushing offense- 67 yards per game/ 3.6 ypc! Miami has found their rushing attack the past two games, & are averaging 4.3 ypc/ 126 per game for the season. They are also attempting the run 29 per (indy is averaging 18 attempts per game) which has in turn opened up the passing game.

The difference between this situation & the Cardinals one is that the Cards are actually a good football team at home. I think the sole edge the Texans have is that they are @ home & facing a team in a letdown situation. Just seems to me that regardless of the situation, the Texans find ways to lose... JMO

[Underdog88]

I'll probably also be forced to fade Seattle again this week, even with GB coming in with 3 straight losses. I had a feeling the Hawks were going to take a huge step back this year, but they are still getting some line respect from past sucesses. How they can be favoured against anyone except STL/DET is beyond me. GB needs to stop their losing streak, and I think they do it.

I too lean GB, but I am starting to think the over may be the better option- or even the Packers team total. Seattle D has been terrible, allowing 523 total yards offense to NYG (254 on the ground), 365 to SF, 338 to Buffalo. 30+ pts allowed in 3 of their 4 games. Their pass D has allowed 7 tds just 1 int, & a 8.4 average pass completion! The only time Seattle has been able to score is when they got the rushing attack going. This is my main concern with backing the Packers, as they continue to be unable to stop the run. 5.1 ypc/161 per game is just terrible, & with Hasselchoke banged up you can bet there will be plenty of focus on the run game. Not that Seattle is that much better vs the run, allowing 4.6/129.5 per game. Seattle was able to run well in 2 games (169 rushing SF/245 vs St Louis), I would put GB in the same grouping as these 2 when it comes to run stopping. They were blown out when Buff & NYG shut the run down ... they also got Ingram back, which at this point is huge. Both teams are in a must win situation, I think it results in a bunch of scoring.

[Underdog88]

Can't seem to pull the trigger on the Bears- really like them, but my concerns are....

1. This is the Bears 2nd straight road game-always tough to win 2 consecutive roadies.

2. Line dropped down to 2, I kind of expected it to sit at 3 & it's seemingly begging for Bears money.

3. I hate playing against home dogs.