NFL Week 5 Discussion

**Underdog88** · 10-01-2008, 10:05 AM

BTW, these are lines taken from Pinny. I like to compare them to my book's lines. IMO Pinny is the sharpest (& best) book out there. I'll never get over losing them...sniff.....

Not sure if people just don't feel like discussing, but we could have way better talks here. I want to try & touch on every game, hopefully with some conflicting points of view. I would love nothing more than to get talked out of a losing play!

Anyone have an opinion on the KC/Carolina game? I haven't looked into it, & I really haven't seen enough Panthers games to get a feel for them....

**FlyersFan** · 10-01-2008, 10:36 AM

Panthers defense is definitely for real but they don't seem to be able to put up a ton of points each week. Hate laying 10 points with a team with a mediocre offense. but the chefs got their win last week over hated denver and not sure they are going to cover here.

17 1/2 is a crazy NFL line but probably justified in the cowboys game. Palmer is most likely sitting again this week.

also like the giants -7 this week coming off that bye week. SEA sucks and it's another 10AM game for them on the east coast which never is a good thing for them.

as i said in chalkyleaf's thread, i do like the Over in the HOU game. IND offense is better than what it has showed so far and HOU defense is as bad as what it has showed, IMO. Plus HOU will put up some points on Indy. I think this has a 30-24 type final written all over it.

I also would lean heavily to the eagles. WAS off a huge win in DAL and now travels to PHI for a 2nd straight road divisional game. PHI really needs this one badly as they are 2-2 and a loss puts them at 2-3 which is almost out of it at this point with that division being what it is. I love the Eagles defense and their offense will be fine even without Westbrook. Probably my favorite play at this point. Pick the winner and it's going to be PHI, IMO. They are in a very similar spot to what the Bears were in last weekend and i expect the same kind of effort from PHI.

**Underdog88** · 10-01-2008, 10:41 AM

Homedogs first

Detroit+3.5 vs Chi.

Ravens+3 vs Ten.

49ers+3 vs Pats.

Dolphins+6.5 vs SD

Texans+3 vs Indy

Squarest play in the world is the Colts. That being said I want no part of Houston ats. Betus has 4.5, but still no thanks. They could play the game of their lives, & still lose to Peyton & co by 7. If anyone is considering the Texans, thinking they will keep it close or win su, IMO the over is the much better play. My sole concern with the over is that the Colts will chew up TOP with Addai, in an effort to keep their D on the sidelines as long as possible. Even so, the Texans are allowing 160 rushing yards per game, 4.8 ypc. Indy is allowing 199 per game 4.9 ypc. Pretty hard for me to imagine a defensive slugfest, I would expect plenty of trips into the red zone. Indy has a good pass D, but obviously they are different withough Sanders. Statistically the Texans do too, but IMO it has more to do with the fact that teams run more vs them. Why not the over?

2005

58 points @ Houston (18 pt Colts win)
48 @Indy (15 pt Colts win)

2006

67 points @Indy (19 point Indy win)
51 points @Houston (3 point Texans win)

2007

54 points @Houston (6 pt Indy win)
53 points @Indy (23 pt Indy win)

Lean over 46.5/ Colts team over 24.5 (-115 @Betus). Close to playing that team over right now. They have scored 30+ pts in 5 of the last 6 meetings. This line is being kept lower than it should because the Colts have yet to score over 21 points. The Texans D is far from Jax, Minny & the Bears!

**Billy The Kid** · 10-01-2008, 10:51 AM

At first glance Indy/Hou Over, New England, and New Orleans jumped out.

Indy/Hou Over 47- Indy's first 3 games this year against tough D's Chi, Minn, Jax and now face a Texans D that has given up 38, 31, 30 points in their first three games. Indy started to show some signs of offensive life that we are use to seeing, now comming off a bye week with a rested Manning and Addai. Houston has also faced their share of tough defenses this year (Pitt, Tenn, Jax). Schaub actually had a very good day throwing the ball against Jax with 307 yrds and 3 tds and had three recievers with 7+ receptions and Andre Johnson was NOT one of them. Indy has yet to face a quality QB this year, Orton, T. Jackson, Garrad, and Schaub IMO is the most talented passer of this group as long as he can get the time to throw the rock. IMO A. Johnson brakes out this week and Schaub has another quality day. I expect a rested Indy squad looking to regain its '07 form to light up the score board and win the game in a shootout.

NE -3 NE off a bye giving 3 to a San Fran team who managed only 17 points against a poor New Orleans D, 8 of those points with 4 minutes left in the game. Pats looking to rebound off a dissapointing loss to Miami two weeks ago.

New Orleans -3 Brees chucking the rock against a below average Vikes secondary. Saints D actually looked a little improved last week picking off JT twice and somewhat limiting Gore (16 att. 82 yrds.). IMO the Vikes hammer AP but don't keep up with the Saints high powered
passing offense.

ADD

Eagles -5.5 Philly off a dissapoint loss facing a Redskins team off a big win at Dallas now playing in their second game of a B2B divisional road game trip. Public high on Washington.

**Underdog88** · 10-01-2008, 11:05 AM

Pretty sure I'm going to be on the Lions. Divisional game where perception is all screwy. Nobody wants a part of the Lions, especially after the Bears beat the Eagles on primetime. Classic letdown spot here for the Bears. Their pass D is not as good as you would think, giving up 246 per game. If there is one thing the Lions have, it's great wrs. Detroit won both meetings last season, taking the home game 37-27. In 2006 they lost @ home 26-21. I expect 50+ passing attempts from Detroit, & a higher scoring game. Thinking Detroit+pts, ml, team o20 & game over could all be solid plays. Chicago should be able to score a couple on Forte plays, & Orton dare I say has looked ok lately.

I lean Ravens after watching them on MNF. IMO the best defense in the game by a longshot, home off a ot loss where they gave the game away. I would give them the motivational edge. Flacco was definitely rattled at times, but in all honesty he looked better than what I though he would. The Ravens D has not allowed a single rushing td this season. Their D is boasting a 43% completion rate, & just 117 yds allowed passing per game (2 tds, 5ints). The Titans are a team that feeds off the power run game as well as turnovers-league leading +6. If they are unable to get the run going, Collins will be in long 3rd down situations & a heap of trouble. To me it comes down to turnovers- the Titans scored 21 points off 4 turnovers last week. This is the Titans first test on the road, given they played the no D Bengals. Not sure I can play an under this low. Could be a 12-9 game throughout then teams trade tds & it's over.

**dananderson32** · 10-01-2008, 11:13 AM

don't have time for reasoning right now but i like

NO -3 (better team at home)

arizona +1 (bills haven't played anyone but jax and i think the other 3 teams they played aren't as good as arizona plus zona is at home)

den -3 (hold your breath with that D but i think they put up enough points on O)

balt +3 (tenn is overrated IMO)

jax -4 (pitt sucks balls)

and cincy +17.5 looks tasty but they blow ass also :puke:

**yomonte** · 10-01-2008, 11:13 AM

Again I'm going with a total in this discussion. TB defense should be enough to stop Den. This total is already moved to 48 and moving in the wrong direction IMO. Strictly TB keeping Den from scoring. I'll be getting this game on the tube and after the half should be going "TICK TOCK"

**Underdog88** · 10-01-2008, 11:20 AM

I tend to agree with you on the first 2 picks Billy, but not with the Saints.

Below average pass D? I definitely disagree with that. Peyton was the only qb this season to throw over 200 yards vs them. He had 311, but just 1 td & 2 ints. In 4 games they have allowed 2 tds. Antoine Winfield is one of the bet cbs in the game when healthy, one of the best tacklers too. The Saints are allowing 5.2 ypc, Peterson will be in the spotlight & is averaging 5.1 ypc. After facing two tough run D's in games vs the Panthers/Titans, the Saints D is gonna have their hands full. IMO a bigger edge than the Saints passing game over the Vikes pass D.

**daft_picks** · 10-01-2008, 11:50 AM

I love Tampa as underdogs this week. I think they can win this game SU, but the +3 is nice. Also love that under 48 as well Denver sputtered last week and surely will do better but not by much.

NYG -7 over seahawks, this is a play I will likely make, Seahawks have not looked that great this season and I know the Giants almost lost too the Bungles but I think they'll win here.

I like the Eagles as well. Arizona is an interesting play too, favored against an undefeated team this line is screaming for Bills money. Might see what happens on the line and make an anti-public play.

I'll say this again to all those out there, don't bet against the Titans just yet. True the Ravens have been playing good ball but both of these defenses are exceptional. The titans run game is better though and they have a seasoned QB leading them versus arookie. Again not saying you should run out and play on the titans -3 (I will for a unit of course) but I think there are better plays this week either way. The Ravens are a fierce rival of the Titans and I think they get it done again before they head to their bye week. Just sayin.

Going to post a few plays that I already made, some mentioned above. BOL to all this weekend :thumbs:

**Billy The Kid** · 10-01-2008, 11:51 AM

Saints thinking UD was on the fact that Minny has faced a slowed Colts passing off. with Peyton not 100% and two teams in Carolina and Tenn. who pound the run. The other game was against Green Bay and Rodgers first start. Brees is throwing for an avg. of 335 yrds. a game. Against TB the toughest D hes faced thus far this year 343 and 3 TD's 1 INT only being sacked 1 time. Minn will be a tougher challenge and I do expect AP to shine. I just feel more comfortable backing Brees than I do Uncle Gus if it comes down to throwing the ball for the win. Will look into this game more closely as the week progresses.

**Underdog88** · 10-01-2008, 12:03 PM

Starting to get into the totals- here is what jumps out at me for this week.

Colts/Texans o46.5- already touched on it

Lions team o20- ditto

Seahawks/NYG u43- defensive battle here. No Plex to stretch the field, I expect a heavy dose of the run game on both sides. Giants off a bye & nearly lost to the Bengals previous. Seahawks also off a bye, & probably a little more optimistic after getting the run game going. I don't think the Giants D has really been tested much, having played the Skins (who looked listless in their first game), the Rams & Bengals. I am starting to warm up to the Seahawks here. 7.5 is too much to me, also like the Giants team total u24.5. Tough to fade the Giants with the Hawks on the road though....

Steelers/Jags o36- Good defense doesn't always mean lower scores, see the MNF game. With all the injuries to the Steelers rbs, paired with the sketchy o-line, I have to think Big Ben is going to be very pass happy. The Jax D is vastly overrated imo. Shaub carved them up last week 29-40 307 3 tds. I think even with lack of protection, Big Ben will be able to move the ball. Both teams off ot wins, more people down on Pitt though it seems. One thing I like about Pitt is they have double revenge having lost twice to them last year. By the way, both meetings went over 50 pts. Garrard is starting to show signs of life, & as always the run game should be able to move Jax. Jax home games always seem to have a way of ending up higher scoring, regardless of how good the defenses are. Since 2006, 14 of their 18 home games totaled 36 or more. Leaning hard on the over, Pitt team o17 & maybe some ml.

Cincy/Dallas o44- if Carson was in it would be a definite over play for me. I still like it, but not as much. Dallas team over is 30.5 & they may get it. If Cincy covers it sails over.

**Underdog88** · 10-01-2008, 12:11 PM

Daft- Fading the Titans would definitely be tough to do right now. I won't wager on the Bills game see last week's thread why lol. Conflict of interests, but I will say it's tough to win b2b road games in the NFL. IMO if you were to play the Cards, it could be wiser to play them 1sth. The Bills have came out very pedestrian in the last two 1st halves. That TB/Den under could be a winner, but the Denver D is really bad. Haven't looked into the Eagles that far, but if Westbrook looks to be healthy, I'll likely be on them. Letdown spot for the Skins but a tough divisional game. :thumbs:

Billy- I see what you're thinking. You're right, on the road vs a good passing team this will be their biggest test yet....

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 10-01-2008, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by Underdog88

Pretty sure I'm going to be on the Lions. Divisional game where perception is all screwy. Nobody wants a part of the Lions, especially after the Bears beat the Eagles on primetime. Classic letdown spot here for the Bears. Their pass D is not as good as you would think, giving up 246 per game. If there is one thing the Lions have, it's great wrs. Detroit won both meetings last season, taking the home game 37-27. In 2006 they lost @ home 26-21. I expect 50+ passing attempts from Detroit, & a higher scoring game. Thinking Detroit+pts, ml, team o20 & game over could all be solid plays. Chicago should be able to score a couple on Forte plays, & Orton dare I say has looked ok lately.

God help us, but I like the Lions too. Sure, they've looked bad, but they've only played one home game so far, against a very good GB team, and they were actually leading that game in the 4th before collapsing. Bears have the 28th ranked pass defence, and I think Detroit throws all over them.

Other games I'll be playing is:

Arizona. I've been backing the Bills all year so far, but this is a perfect spot for the Bills to finally get beat, across the country in Zona. The Cards have only played one home game, a blowout of Miami, and should be back in a comfort zone after playing (and living) 2 straight weeks on the East Coast. Despite his fumbleitis, Warner has played well this year throwing the ball, and the Bills look to be missing their best CB McGee this week. He'll be missed in the secondary AND on special teams where the Bills are already without Roscoe Parrish.

Bucs. Tampa getting no respect again. We have a very good defence against a ****ty defence. I'll take the points with the good defence.

Cowboys. I might just lay the 17. Dallas should take out Cincy in a big way after losing at home to Washington. Unless Cedric Benson runs for a couple TDs (lol) I see a 20+ point win with the Boys trying to flex their muscles. You just know they want a blowout here, and will definitely be playing aggressively on offence. Public seems to be on Cincy so far....because 17 points is definitely alot! But is it wrong? I think Dallas keeps the pedal down all game. Maybe a Dallas team over is a play. Or a tease.

Philly Perfect letdown spot for Washington, and how tough is it to win b2b road games in Dallas and Philly? Wow. If they could do that, they'd have to be the NFC frontrunner. I don't see it.

**rawhide** · 10-01-2008, 12:27 PM

Jax -4 Pitt Off. really in disarray! Pitt usually a good play @ home but they are a whole different team away from Ketchup. IMO for the most port there wins were pretty ugly and there loss was even uglyer.

That said, I think the game will be fairly close but Ill take the home team in a pick a winner and might wait or buy a point.

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NFL YTD:
SIDES 16-1
Totals 2-3-1
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MNF YTD:
SIDES 3-0
TOTALS 1-0
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TEASER:
1-0
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NCAAF YTD:
SIDES 1-2
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NFL Week 5 Discussion