NFL Week 3 Discussion

**Underdog88** · 09-16-2008, 09:45 AM

Unless Dallas opens as a road fave, it looks like there won't be any homedogs this week. Can't remember the last time that's happened! Interested in the Philly line. They played a good game yesterday, IMO Dallas really stole one there. Pitt was less than impressive vs Cleveland, I think Philly wins that game.

Dogs that stick out to me at first glance

Houston+5- The Titans are laying 5 with Collins @ qb. Kudos to beating Cincy I don't think they are as good a team as many may think after a 2-0 start, though I'm hesitant to play Houston on the road. They have lost six straight to the Titans, & they have all been pretty closely played games. The Titans have scored 17 points on offense in both games played, despite failing to pass for over 120 yards in each of them. Ten was 4-13 on 3rd downs vs Cincy & only passed for 118 yards. The biggest factor for me is can the Texans stop the Titans run game? Pitt ran all over them, & the Titans ran all over Cincy.

Bucs+3 - Not buying the Bears as favorites over a good defensive team. Of course they have to be dogged, but I think TB is the better team here, even with Greise. The Bears managed 10 offensive points vs the Panthers last week, & Jonathan Stewart had success running the ball vs the Bears. TB piled up 164 rushing yards on the Falcons. Hester looks like he'll be out, so that would negate any advantage the Bears would have in the special teams dept. The Bears totally gave the game away vs Car, with both penalties & turnovers.

Rams+10- OK I know the Rams have looked god awful, but they have also played two of the top 4 teams imo in the NFC. Is Seattle really worthy of being 10pt faves? The Niners just beat them su @ home, Osullivan threw for 312 yards for christ's sake! I have to think that Jackson makes something happen here, & Bulger is able to throw on them. Seattle is thin @ wr, & Hasselbeck has been unimpressive to start the season. Both teams with their backs against the wall....

I think the line is a bit inflated in Buffalo too, though I won't bet against the Bills.

**Underdog88** · 09-16-2008, 09:49 AM

Also forgot the Browns. I think they roll the Ravens this week.:beer2:

**Daws1089** · 09-16-2008, 09:52 AM

my thoughts exactly on the rams/seahawks. I'm not buying seattle as a double digit fav over anyone.

Not much sticks out to me this week, but I do like the jets on mnf. I'm not impressed with anything that sd has done this season regardless if the game was taken from them yesterday. Their defense has been less than average and I think a big number like that makes it easy for me to go with nyj.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 09-16-2008, 10:00 AM

I can't believe the Seahurts are laying double-digits. The Rams are not a playoff team by any stretch, but their two losses are on the road against a Philly team that went toe-to-toe on the road with the Cowboys the next week, and the f'ing Superbowl champs the next week. Nice schedule. The infirmary in Seattle is insane...no way they can lay 10. the rams were getting 9 points in there first two contests...now they get 10 against Seattle? Gotta take the points.

Buffalo also shouldn't be laying 9.5/10. Great start by the Bills, but their two wins were against teams with major injury issues. This could be a low-scoring, ball control type of game with the two defences and running games...and anytime you can get 10 points, I might have to fade the hometeam...although I'm not sure I like backing Oakland in the East in an early start.

Like the Browns getting 2.5 points in Baltimore. I was ready to fade the Ravens huge last week...laying points with the Texans. Now I get points with a superior Browns team desperate for a win after opening the season against playoff teams Dallas & Pittsburgh? Ravens have one measly clsoe win over the Bungles...who might be the league's worst team. Cleveland all day.

UD....it's Philly -3 and Dallas -3.
Green Bay a homedog...

**Underdog88** · 09-16-2008, 10:08 AM

I can't back the Jets on the road. Last season they won 1 road game (vs the Fins), & I really don't think Favre will be the one to push them over the top this season. I have to think that SD will have added motivation as they were robbed of a win vs Denver. I do have concerns with SD as they have allowed a ton of offense, but they have been a very solid home team. Last season they were 7-1 at home, & 6 of the wins were by double digits. The only one that wasn't was a 3 point win over the Colts. 7-1 ats at home! Even without Merriman, I haver to think they have a much more concentrated effort defensively. I also think LT is due for a breakoput game... Using the pick the winner method, I just don't see the Jets going into SD & winning, so I can't endorse them. I do think if they cover/win the total will fly over though.

**Underdog88** · 09-16-2008, 10:16 AM

Nice to see we agree on those games JML.

I'm leaning hard on Philly-3/ Packers ML. Philly @ home off a tough loss vs the best NFC team. I stand by my statements preseason- Pitt is a play @ home/fade on road for me. Packers game is a tough one, m,ay just leave it alone but **** it's the only homedog of the week! No way I play Dallas, that's for sure....

Patriots/Chargers teaser looks like a winner to me!

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 09-16-2008, 11:43 AM

Also looking at the Vikings & Skins at home laying a FG.

Minny is desperate for a win, and I think they get it against Carolina...who have squeaked out a couple close games to go 2-0, but might be ripe for the picking on the road in Minny who are in must-win territory already.

I think Wash wins/covers too. They hung tough in a bad spot in the opener in the SB champs stadium, and then played well at home beating a hyped Saints team. It's always tough to go into an NFC East stadium and win...especially the West Coast Cardinals, who traditionally stink in the East, and will be playing their first game in that time zone this year (early 1:00 PM start). They have gone 2-0 on the West Coast to start the year against less than stellar opponents. This is a better test, and IMO it's a perfect spot for a Cardinal road letdown.

**TheWorstEver** · 09-16-2008, 12:08 PM

Any thoughts about the texans over/under? I know last season means nothing, but the texans were 14-2 over this total last year. All 8 road games surpassed this amount, and titans games totalled 74 and 48. Pitt ran all over us, and I'm expecting the same from tennessee.

**NittanyLions94** · 09-16-2008, 01:46 PM

Leans so far:

Minny -3 or 3.5

If Minny just punches in one TD last week they win, and I think this week they will be able to get TDs. They really dominated that game against the Colts, and at one point had Addai at 5 or 6 carries with -4 yards. Their D is the best in the NFL IMO, and Carolina is still somewhat of a mystery to me. I like the home team.

Saints +4

I'm big on the Saints this year, and I think the Broncos have a public perception as a dominant team after their first 2 wins. Saints will be able to move the ball with ease on their D.

Packers +3

Dallas got shredded by the Eagles pass O, which I don't believe is as good as the Pack's, and the Pack can run the ball with anyone. Pack with an athletic linebacker in Hawk to run with Witten down the middle of the field will help them slow down the Dallas O, as Witten is the most important part of their pass game IMO.

**hodown** · 09-16-2008, 09:53 PM

there's some pick the winner scenarios out there that I dig:

Atlanta -5.5
Croyle is out and Huard is questionable, and the offense wasn't any good when either of these guys was in there

Wash -3
hard to get a read on how good Arizona really is, having beaten SF and Miami. I dont trust them on the road and I think Wash is playing some pretty good football with a nice win over NO last wk

Den -5.5
Den offense is hitting on all cylinders and I dont see NO's defense doing anything to prevent what Oak and SD couldnt.

Philly -3
play against Pitt on the road, especially in a tough venue. and by the way the NFC east is loaded.

Indy -5.5
never thought Jax would go 0-3, but both teams need this. i think last year the line was around 7 in indy, and jax looks a lot worse this year than indy does relative to last year. dont think Jax pass d will hold up either

Cleveland +2.5
Cle should be the favorite imo. if there gonna favor Cinci, how do they not favor Cle? Balt is well rested but so what, Cle is desperate here.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 09-17-2008, 12:45 PM

Gus Frerotte in for the Vikings, and Steve Smith is back for the Panthers. not sure I like the Vikings laying those 3.5 points as much as first glance... although Gus might be a good thing...lol.

**NittanyLions94** · 09-17-2008, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Gus Frerotte in for the Vikings, and Steve Smith is back for the Panthers. not sure I like the Vikings laying those 3.5 points as much as first glance... although Gus might be a good thing...lol.

Nothing can be worse than Jackson taking the snaps. And I'd watch for the line to drop below 3 and then grab it. That's probably what I'll do at least.

**FlyersFan** · 09-17-2008, 05:46 PM

also QB change for the Chefs. Not even sure who the guy is. Some guy from Eastern Coastal Beach Carolina State Technical College

**daft_picks** · 09-17-2008, 07:41 PM

Good thoughts so far, these stick out to me:

Really liking the Bucs over Da Bears, as dogs no less. Assume 3 points for homefield and that's puts these team's at a pick but is that right? Has Chicago really proven itself yet? See lots of running this game. O/U is insanely low at 35.5, but I still think it goes under. What is the best play here? Might just stay safe with Bucs +3

Other dog play that has been pointed out is the Browns over the Ravens. Browns have played 2 of the best teams in the NFL while the Ravens have beaten one of the worst. Same situation as above, may just take a stab at that ML. Who else is laying?

The best favorite I see is Philly -3 who I really think could put a killing on Pitt. Sadly it is at -125 at my current book but they are currently my top chalk pick.

Secondly would have to be the Skins over the Cards. Laying only a FG at home, I think the Cards come back to earth this week after laying huge beatings on inferior teams. SF isn't so bad but Miami sure is.

Speaking of the 49ers I think they will beat the Lions by more than 4. I think this squad is fired up while the Lions are listless. It would have to be a small play (it's still the 49er) but I think it's worth a look too.

These are all tight spreads, might do some teasing on some other plays but I think these have solid chances. Keep the discussion going, I'm putting in my first official picks on Friday.

NFL Week 3 Discussion