NFL Week 2 Discussion

**Underdog88** · 09-09-2008, 10:00 AM

Initial leans.....

Cardinals-6.5

Jaguars-6

Texans-4

Patriots ml

Those are just the first few that jumped off the page assuming we are picking the winner. Miami on the road won't get any of my cash. Though the Bills played very well Sunday, I think they are walking into a horrible situation facing the Jags off a loss. Jax was held to 1.9 ypc @ Ten (17 carries for 33 yards!). They also turned the ball over 3 times. Buffalo allowed 4 ypc to Seattle at home, so I think we see a ton of attempts from Jax. IMO it would take another amazing performance by the Bills D & more special teams tds for the Bills to keep it close. The Texans are a team that came inot the season hyped, but I still think they could be a good wager @ home vs bad teams, like Sunday. Baltimore managed to score 17 points vs a horrid Cincy D despite dominating the whole game. I think Flacco could be in trouble on the road this week. Someone talk me off these plays. :thumbs:

**Nigel Tufnel** · 09-09-2008, 11:00 AM

I realize they are at home to open the season, but I honestly can't believe Cincy is favored this weekend. Things are looking bleak here in the Nati and I don't know if the Tennesse defense is going to be the squad that the horrid Cincy O gets healthy on. Two stats that make me cringe when thinking about this weekend's game....

Tennesse D -- 7 sacks against a QB that is much more mobile than Carson Palmer.
Tennessee D -- gave up 33 yards on 17 carries for a total of 1.9 ypc against a team that is better than the Bengals.

The Bengals offensive line is swiss cheese. I have a hard time believing that Perry will be able to get any open lanes to run. I'm even more concerned that Palmer will get killed this weekend when he drops back. Most here in Cincy are giving Palmer zero chance of getting through the season without an injury...most probably a concussion.

I'm not sure I even care about the offensive issues in Tenn. I've heard a lot of talk that the Titans are better off with Kerry Collins at QB anyway. I just don't know how Cincy is going to be able to get anything done offensively.

Lean to Tenn and the under.

Its going to be a LONG season for the Bengals.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 09-09-2008, 11:55 AM

My Sunday leans...

Pats +2.5. 10-11 point line adjustment for Brady? Nuts. NE still a good team...public pounding the Jets with Farve playing the Brady-less Pats. Like NE to spoil the party. Cassel has been around this offence for a long time, and didn't look out of place last week (116 QB rating). With a full week of 1st string reps...I think he gets a win.

Texans -4. Houston ran into a powerhouse Steelers team playing the AFC North division's best on the road. Baltimore got a nice draw, playing the AFC North division's worst in their own stadium. Houston's the better team here, and might just blow out the Ravens at home. Ravens are still a bad offensive team, are in for a long year IMO, and a pedestrian win over the Bungles does not change that. Flacco on the road against the Houston front 7 might get ugly.

Panthers -3. Nice win by the Bears in Indy...but Peyton and Co. looked out of synch (Peyton injury, new centre, etc), and to ask Chicago to go into two straight playoff teams stadiums and get wins to start the year is asking a bit much. Especcially of Kyle Orton and that offence. Real surprised I only have to lay a FG at home for a much deeper team. The Bears Indy win gives us that value.

Niners +8. Not sure if Seattle...with all their injuries, should they be laying 8 to Frank Gore and the Niners who can run the ball and play a little defence. O'Sullivan played very well under the new Martz offense, and will only get better. Turnovers killed SF in week one (4 fumbles, 1 INT), but that's a fluke (two balls knocked out of his hands)...and you have to believe that Osullivan and the rest hold onto the ball a little better. 8 points seems like alot for the Seahurts. Hasselbeck did not look sharp with that bad back, and with Burleson's injury, they are down to 5th and 6th string, inexperienced receivers. RB Morris also got hurt against Buffalo. That leaves Julius Jones, who was beat out of the starting job in camp. I had the Niners improving a bit this year, and the Seahawks regressing even before these injuries...so I actually think SF has a chance at winning this thing outright...even in that tough stadium.

Chargers -1.5. Bounce-back for the Bolts against the over-rated Donkeys coming off a rout of the embarrasing Raiders. Bolts were matched up against a solid Panthers team, and lost a close one...they'll show their teeth in Denver.

Another huge home fave....isn't TB (and maybe Brian Griese) laying a few too many points against an Atlanta team that showed they just might have one of the NFL's elite runners in their backfield? 8 points seems like alot. But I doubt I would like to back Atlanta on the road.

**dwd14** · 09-09-2008, 12:17 PM

i will be on the pats for sure. give bellicheck a lil time to prepare and he can come up with a good scheme. the team is loaded with veterans that wont buckle under the pressure and teams tend to step up and play better when their star goes down, at least the following week imo.

**daft_picks** · 09-09-2008, 12:25 PM

Back on the scene for a few thoughts on week two, looking for some good discussion.

Being a Titans fan I can't not take them as a dog to the Bungles, may be a homer play but I say everyone should give a look, the Titans D is fierce and I think Jags > Bungles.

My biggest lean has gone unmentioned so far and that is the Steelers over the Browns. I watching the Browns get creamed at home by the superior Dallas and I feel the Steelers are on a similar level. I just don't see how they can stay within a TD of the Steelers, I think 6 is a gift here. Could be a trap though, thoughts? I feel like this line will go up...

Atlanta at Tampa is interesting getting that huge +8 after their respective first week performances. Hard to back Atlanta on the road as of yet but I bet they run on Tampa well. Thoughts here? Could be a good small value bet, can't pull the trigger yet.

And I see some leaning towards Jax this week who I do think is the better team, but they have some big ? on their team. Their O line is really banged up and I feel this could be a close hard fought game. The Bills are looking good this year and will do all that it takes to win here and coudl possibly get it done, so maybe +6 is worth a try?

One thing about these picks is that they are all away teams. Would love some good home doggies but there is no WAY I am taking the Rams right now and I can't do the Browns either. Keep the thoughts coming guys let's get some winners for this weekend!

:thumbs: :beerbang: :thumbs:

**NittanyLions94** · 09-09-2008, 01:27 PM

Some leans so far:

Minnesota +2 vs Colts:

-Colts run D looked absolutely abysmal against the Bears. This situation won't be much different either, because Orton wasn't exactly a passing threat in his own right, so the mindset shouldn't change much. Peterson is a better back at this point in his career than Matt Forte, and Chester Taylor is a very good compliment to him. I can see them rolling up 180+ yards on the Colts D at home.

Jags -6 vs. Bills

-I like the Bills this year, but not enough to travel to Jax and get a win. The 2-headed monster at RB had a slow week last week against a stingy D in Tennessee, but I think they rebound in a big way against the Bills this weekend. Sure Buffalo shut down the Seahawks in the rushing department, but that was with Maurice Morris and Julius Jones running the ball, and Morris was hurt in the game. Also the cross-country factor came in to play. Jax is a tough home team, 12-4 in their last 16 home games, and pick the winner is involved here at -6.

Pats +2 @ Jets

-Really? A dog? I'll bite on that even if it is the sucker line of the century.

Chargers -2 @ Denver

-Denver off a MNF win, Chargers off a home loss. Line inflation IMO. Chargers are still the class of that division and will be fired up to play the Broncos. This is still a rush D that was worst in the NFL last season facing the best RB in the NFL. The Raiders OL didn't have much to offer, and they were playing from behind the majority of the game, so the run game became non-existent. I look for the Chargers to pound the ball and then open it up for Gates and get some easy scores.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 09-09-2008, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by NittanyLions94

Pats +2 @ Jets

-Really? A dog? I'll bite on that even if it is the sucker line of the century.

Funny thing is...at other forums, I see JETS BACKERS calling it the sucker line of the century for THEIR side. "only 2 points for Farve against the Brady-less Pats???".

wtf? :dunno:

**SammyJ** · 09-09-2008, 04:10 PM

love these threads.

the bengals -1 @ home smells like a stink-bomb. no way should they be favored. even if vince young is out, there is no reason for them to be laying points.

**tampayay** · 09-09-2008, 04:10 PM

Well this is what i'm working with so far.......

San Fransisco +9 This has to be my favorite game of the week. Seattle giving up 9 against an improving SF team? I don't think so. Both coming off first week losses, I think that the Niners will be the more hungry team. JT will want to redeem himself after a performance way under his capability. Frank gore has looked superb as well, and i think this line is going to drop, so i will be grab the line while i can......

Buffalo+6 Yes i think jax has the better team, but i also believe that their offensive line is too depleted to be giving up 6 against a Half way decent buffalo team. Ill bite.

Carolina-3 Nice performance by the bears on MNF, which i expected, but i think that they come back down to earth when they travel to Carolina. I think the panthers are going to be much improved this year, compared to last. I will take a field goal, no doubt. Oh yea, did you guys see De Angelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart?

**homedawg** · 09-09-2008, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Underdog88

all the homedogs are bolded......

:beer2: Like'em both, more so on the team in my back yard! I will be lookin' for more favorable lines, although I will definitely lay down on the browns ml! I was not buyin' into all the browns preseason prediction hype bs, but I will not let the game 1, against the best team in the NFL, prevent me from layin' down on the browns, I think they can keep it close, and may just win! :celebrate: Gonna take the rams ats.

**tampayay** · 09-10-2008, 12:42 AM

SF line dropped to 7 in the majority of the shops...... Wow :nuts:

**hodown** · 09-10-2008, 09:41 AM

Even though it looks like Seattle is gonna suck this year, I find two problems laying any wood on SF. First off, Seattle is a pretty good home team, and second of all I really wouldn't want my money on SF on the road. That being said, I'd take SF with points over Sea giving points, but I won't be playing that game.

Jax -5.5
In a pick the winner scenario, is Buffalo really ready to go into Jax and pull out a win here?

Arizona -6.5
Same thiing as above. In a division that's ripe for the taking, Ari can't afford to not win this game.

NE +1.5
This defense is 10 times better than Mia's was last week, and still counting on Favre to make the big mistake.

For me these are the 3 best plays on the board. Also like NO -1, Det +3, SD -1.5, Cle +6.5. Lots of good plays on the board this week...

**Kevin** · 09-10-2008, 04:19 PM

No way do I play Jacksonville with all those offensive linemen out and no receivers to throw to.

If Buffalo puts 8 in the box like they did vs. Seattle, the Jags may lose straight up.

**Underdog88** · 09-10-2008, 08:55 PM

Just found out my uncle who lives in Atlanta grabbed tickets to the Bills/Jags game for my cousin and I. Booked a flight for Friday, so I'll be headed to Jax to watch the Bills beat the Jags:beerbang:

still think it's a bad spot for the Bills

NFL Week 2 Discussion