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I know it's tough to give write ups with much substance in week 1, but I will try to give my thoughts on why I like the plays I'm making for today....
Jacksonville Jaguars -3
I tried, but this is the one road fave I couldn't make a real case against that held any water this week. Tennessee is scrappy, but they aren't on the same level as Jax imo. Pick the winner, and I'm not coming up with Tennessee...
Buffalo Bills pk -115
The Bills WERE supposed to be contenders last season before seemingly the entire team went down to injury. Now, with these key players back and healthy, and another year of experience under their belts for this young team, I think they should be a solid playoff contender this year, barring a ton of injuries again.
Seattle on the other hand is, imo, is in their twilight and is heading for some rebuilding years. They are thin at WR today, and Hasselbeck is hurting. Did he even play in preseason? I obviously didn't watch all of Seattle's preseason games, but I can't find any data for him either. Just for Wallace and Frye.
And then there's how Seattle notoriously sucks when travelling east.
I think this line is made on public perception, not reality, and contender BUF should be favored by a good bit more here over pretender SEA.
Miami Dolphins +3
In contrast to Jacksonville, it's simple to make an argument against the J-E-T-S, imho. They stank last year, and there's no way Favre can be fullly prepared with this team, and i think everyone knows what can happen when Favre starts forcing the issue...
Secondly, despite being 1-15 last year, Miami was actually COMPETITIVE, especially at home. It's not like this team was getting destroyed 44-3 every week. It was more like one or two key plays going against them and costing them games, well, in their home games anyway.
Obviously this team has nowhere to go but up, and has to have a real poor taste in their mouths after last year (those who were around), and with a very beatable team in their season opener and home opener, they have to be licking their chops at the prospect at starting the season off with a win.
Another line made on public perception. "Miami stinks and Favre is #1, so lay the points!!!"
No thanks. I'll take the very live home doggie.
Baltimore Raisins +2.5 +100
The Ocho Cincos as a road fave is a joke. I don't know how else to put it, or to say what hasn't already been said by some of the others here. They're just a bad football team, and the only reason they are favored today is because of the hype, and the public loves offense.
What offense? That's my question.
The freakin total is set at 37.5 here. Doesn't sound like anyone thinks there will be any scoreboards malfunctioning to due to a kick ass Bungles offense to me. And rightly so, as Flyers Fan pointed out, their first team offense failed to score a TD in the entire pre season. In addition, basically every one of their key skill players is dinged or nicked in one way or another.
Add in a **** defense, poor special teams, and an undisciplined team, and I don't see how they are favored to win anything.
Houston Texases +6.5 +105
I believe their is strong sharp money on Houston, as the line dropped off PIT -7 to PIT -6 earlier in the week, despite PIT being one of the most public picks of the week. In contrast to PHILLY for example, which also opened at PHI -7, but has gone from -7 to -9
SF 49ers +2.5 +100
Any road fave opening at -2.5 is bad news, imo....just sitting there begging the public to lay less than a FG for that easy winner. I'll pass and take the Niners, as this is the only home dog of the week that actually opened at +2.5. On top of that, it has sat there all week.
Cleveland Browns +6 +105
Anyone remember how lucky Dallas got last year in a bunch of their road wins? Buffalo on MNF is the closest in my memory. I also think they had a somewhat weak schedule, and it showed when they got dispatched early from the playoffs quite easily by the eventual super bowl champion NY Giants. Dallas is, imho, going to be a big disappointment this year to bettors. Might as well start in week 1 with them being a road fave against an AFC team with alot of upside, and plays on natural grass, which could certainly slow their passing game a bit.
Philly/St Louis over 43.5
San Diego/Carolina over 41
Indy/Chicago under 44
2 units each
Miami ML +140
Baltimore ML +120
Houston ML +260
Cleveland ML +235
San Francisco ML +120
1 unit each
I know it's tough to give write ups with much substance in week 1, but I will try to give my thoughts on why I like the plays I'm making for today....
Jacksonville Jaguars -3
I tried, but this is the one road fave I couldn't make a real case against that held any water this week. Tennessee is scrappy, but they aren't on the same level as Jax imo. Pick the winner, and I'm not coming up with Tennessee...
Buffalo Bills pk -115
The Bills WERE supposed to be contenders last season before seemingly the entire team went down to injury. Now, with these key players back and healthy, and another year of experience under their belts for this young team, I think they should be a solid playoff contender this year, barring a ton of injuries again.
Seattle on the other hand is, imo, is in their twilight and is heading for some rebuilding years. They are thin at WR today, and Hasselbeck is hurting. Did he even play in preseason? I obviously didn't watch all of Seattle's preseason games, but I can't find any data for him either. Just for Wallace and Frye.
And then there's how Seattle notoriously sucks when travelling east.
I think this line is made on public perception, not reality, and contender BUF should be favored by a good bit more here over pretender SEA.
Miami Dolphins +3
In contrast to Jacksonville, it's simple to make an argument against the J-E-T-S, imho. They stank last year, and there's no way Favre can be fullly prepared with this team, and i think everyone knows what can happen when Favre starts forcing the issue...
Secondly, despite being 1-15 last year, Miami was actually COMPETITIVE, especially at home. It's not like this team was getting destroyed 44-3 every week. It was more like one or two key plays going against them and costing them games, well, in their home games anyway.
Obviously this team has nowhere to go but up, and has to have a real poor taste in their mouths after last year (those who were around), and with a very beatable team in their season opener and home opener, they have to be licking their chops at the prospect at starting the season off with a win.
Another line made on public perception. "Miami stinks and Favre is #1, so lay the points!!!"
No thanks. I'll take the very live home doggie.
Baltimore Raisins +2.5 +100
The Ocho Cincos as a road fave is a joke. I don't know how else to put it, or to say what hasn't already been said by some of the others here. They're just a bad football team, and the only reason they are favored today is because of the hype, and the public loves offense.
What offense? That's my question.
The freakin total is set at 37.5 here. Doesn't sound like anyone thinks there will be any scoreboards malfunctioning to due to a kick ass Bungles offense to me. And rightly so, as Flyers Fan pointed out, their first team offense failed to score a TD in the entire pre season. In addition, basically every one of their key skill players is dinged or nicked in one way or another.
Add in a **** defense, poor special teams, and an undisciplined team, and I don't see how they are favored to win anything.
Houston Texases +6.5 +105
I believe their is strong sharp money on Houston, as the line dropped off PIT -7 to PIT -6 earlier in the week, despite PIT being one of the most public picks of the week. In contrast to PHILLY for example, which also opened at PHI -7, but has gone from -7 to -9
SF 49ers +2.5 +100
Any road fave opening at -2.5 is bad news, imo....just sitting there begging the public to lay less than a FG for that easy winner. I'll pass and take the Niners, as this is the only home dog of the week that actually opened at +2.5. On top of that, it has sat there all week.
Cleveland Browns +6 +105
Anyone remember how lucky Dallas got last year in a bunch of their road wins? Buffalo on MNF is the closest in my memory. I also think they had a somewhat weak schedule, and it showed when they got dispatched early from the playoffs quite easily by the eventual super bowl champion NY Giants. Dallas is, imho, going to be a big disappointment this year to bettors. Might as well start in week 1 with them being a road fave against an AFC team with alot of upside, and plays on natural grass, which could certainly slow their passing game a bit.
Philly/St Louis over 43.5
San Diego/Carolina over 41
Indy/Chicago under 44
2 units each
Miami ML +140
Baltimore ML +120
Houston ML +260
Cleveland ML +235
San Francisco ML +120
1 unit each
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