Super Bowl XLII

[Billy Barooooooo]

It's fair to say that the Super Bowl is undoubtedly the most watched sporting event of the year and is also the largest wagered event in all of sports. Super Bowl's bring both experienced and novice bettors together for this one day in the calendar year. After reading this article even the novice bettor will be wiser come Super Bowl XLII.

The Super Bowl has a number of variants that are not associated to any regular season game. Teams have two weeks of rest and time to prepare, and of course there is the neutral field. It's no longer the case as it was back in the 80's and the early years of the 90's when it was simply a matter of putting one's money down on the team from the NFC. The NFC does however hold a 21-20 SU and 20-18-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in three of the last five Super Bowls.

From a statistical view point, four key areas have more relevance to who will win than anything else. These areas are: time of possession, rushing yards, passing yards per attempt and turnovers. Let's take a look.

Teams that have possession of the football for more than 30 minutes are 31-10 SU and 29-9-3 ATS.

Teams who have more rushing yards are 34-7 SU and 30-8-3 ATS.

Teams that gain more yards per pass attempt are 35-6 SU and 30-8-3 ATS.

Teams that win the turnover battle are 38-3 SU and 32-6-3 ATS.

When any team has an advantage in at least three of the above four stats, that team is 35-1 SU and 30-5-1 ATS. On 23 occasions, one team had all four statistical edges. They have been money in the bank, recording a record of 23-0 SU and 21-1-1 ATS. That said, New England had the edge in 2005 in all four categories, yet were the only team not to cover the number.

It is often said that defense wins championships and those words still hold true more often than not. Over the last 20 years, the team that wins the Super Bowl averages just under 31 points per game. Itʼs not often a team wins without scoring 21 points or more. The last team to do it was Pittsburgh back in Super Bowl IX when they defeated Minnesota 16-6.

The favored team has only been lined at less than a touchdown in five of the last 22 Super Bowls. Double-digit favorites are 4-3-1 ATS since 1986, but since 1996 these large chalks are 2-2 SU (two losers being Rams in 2002 and Packers in 1998) and 0-3-1 ATS.

The last 22 Super Bowls have had an average posted total of 46.4 points.

There have been ten games played inside a dome in Super Bowl history. The average points scored in those ten games is 45.2. Posted totals have only been available over the last 22 years and during this period 14 games have gone 'Over' the total, including 9 of the last 15. Five of those six 'Unders' have occurred since the turn of the century with an Over /Under line of at least 47 points.

Super Bowl favorites have won straight up 29 times out of the previous 41 tries and have a slight edge against the number with a 21-17-3 mark. That record doesn't tell the whole picture though. Take out the dominating years by the 49'ers and the Cowboys (1985 to 1995) when the favorite covered 8 of the 11 years, including double-digit favs going a perfect 4-0 ATS, it is true to say that the underdog has certainly had its day, as since 1996, the dog is 6-3-2 ATS. As in most cases, the straight up winner usually covers the number evidenced by the fact that Super Bowl winners are 33-5-3 ATS all-time. However, two of those five non-covers came in 2004 and 2005, so beware!

Since 1999, two teams (New England in 2002 and St Louis in 1999) have sought revenge for a regular season loss against their Super Bowl opponent. In both of those games the team that lost the regular season game ended up getting revenge and winning the Super Bowl.

Some further trends that may be of some use.

The higher playoff seed is 1-9-2 ATS in the last 12 Super Bowls.

The team with the better record going into the game is 27-10 SU.

If one (but not both) of the road teams win in the Conference Championship round, they are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.

Teams that won outright as underdogs in the Conference Championship round are 10-6-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1981, including 4-0 ATS since 2002.

If one of the teams has allowed their previous two opponents to score two touchdowns or less, the game has gone over 78% of the time.

[yomonte]

Thanx Billy :beer2:

[Billy Barooooooo]

Now that the dust has settled and New York and New England have finally emerged to battle for the NFL Title on February 3rd in Glendale, AZ, the means for successfully handicapping the game change significantly from anything seen in the regular season or the playoffs up till this point for that matter. In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a challenging period of handicapping. At no other point in the season does it pay off more to do your homework, especially considering your family and friends will probably be watching your wagers unfold with you on the big screen on game day.
The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the sporting and television event of the year. It is also clearly the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone seems to have some sort of interest in the game. Of course oddsmakers realize this, as the wagering options are increased multi-fold for the big game. Square pools, ATS and Total wagers, Teasers, Propositions, you name it, if you can think it, there is probably a line to bet it somewhere. Unfortunately, many bettors go uneducated into the process, and while I’m not going to be able to share with you everything I know about Super Bowl handicapping in this single piece, I hope to convey enough about the basics to give you somewhat of an advantage.
I’ve divided the article into three different sections, Stats, Strategies, and Streaks, hence the name of the feature! For each category, I’ll give you a bit of a background on how important it has been in winning or losing past Super Bowl wagers. At the bottom of this page, you’ll find a handy chart showing some of the key details from every past Super Bowl that helped make my findings a reality. Enjoy the information everyone, and be sure to take in all that the Sportsform & CPFN have to offer this week and next to be fully prepared to come up big on February 3rd!
Stats
Like any other football contest, execution plays a pivotal role in the Super Bowl. In fact, it is magnified simply because of how much is at stake. Dictionary.com defines the word execute as to carry out; accomplish. In football lingo, this means controlling the line of scrimmage, passing the ball efficiently, and limiting mistakes. In the Super Bowl, the team that does this almost always come out on top. Those familiar with StatFox know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 34-7 SU & 30-8-3 ATS (78.9%).
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 36-5 SU & 31-7-3 ATS (81.6%).
* In the 39 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just three times SU and six times ATS (84.2%). Coincidentally, the last two times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last two world championships.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 30-11 SU & 28-10-3 ATS.
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 35-1 SU & 30-5-1 ATS.
* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. As you can see from the chart below, Indianapolis enjoyed the edge in all four categories in its win over the Bears last February. For those of you intrigued, the only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win, indicating evidence that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.
Strategies
In the “good old days” of Super Bowl betting (i.e. before four years ago), there used to be an unbreakable Super Bowl System that simply took into account playoff ATS success, total wins, and the pointspread. At one point, it had hit in 20 of 21 occasions. I don’t know the founder of that system, but surely that person is no longer touting it after its current 3-game losing skid, thus either am I. Therefore, for the purposes of this Strategies section, I’ve simply resorted to citing some past historical records for various pointspread, total, and other scenarios.
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-17-3, 55.3%, indicating a novice bettor, or those who simply love to lay the wood, has a great shot at success without barely lifting a finger.
* Double-digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.
* The SU winner is 33-5-3 ATS in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 2-2 ATS the past four years.
* The NFC holds a 21-20 SU and 20-18-3 ATS edge all time, but has not covered the spread in three years.
* The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-9-2 ATS in the last 12 Super Bowl games!
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-11 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.5 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.3 PPG! The Steelers of 1975 are still the last team to win a Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
Over/Under Trends
* As noted earlier, there have been 45.7 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl.
* Overall, the OVER the total is 14-8-1 for 63.6%, however, the last three games have all failed to surpass that key number.
* Three of the six games with totals posted 50 or higher went UNDER the total. Ironically, in each occurrence that the game has gone UNDER the total, the posted number was 47 or more.
Streaks
Remember the days of the 80’s and early 90’s when winning a Super Bowl wager was as easy as saying the words “give me the NFC team!” Well, the game has flipped in recent years, as the AFC has become the dominant conference. In fact, since Green Bay last won the big game back in January of ’97, the AFC owns a respectable 8-2 SU & 6-3-1 ATS record. This “streakiness” has become a pattern in Super Bowl performance of the two conferences. Read on to see what I’m referring to.
Looking back at the 41-year history of football’s greatest game, there have been three dramatic stretches of conference dominance. I describe these as periods where one of the conference failed to lose back-to-back games at any one. I already mentioned the recent run by the American Football Conference. If you were to tack on the two games prior to Denver’s win in ’97, the AFC straight up mark falls to 8-4, but the ATS record improves to 7-3-2, or 70%! That followed up a 14-year stretch where the NFC dominated to the tune of 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS (85.7%). Dating back even further, the AFC has a entirely separate successful run between 1969 & 1981. In that time period, the record of the AFC: 11-2 SU 9-4 ATS (69.2%).

[Meestermike]

Past SB ATS & stuff

Here is a chart for the past SB's

[Billy Barooooooo]

WOW GREAT CHART MM!


THanks


BB

[Billy Barooooooo]

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE SUPER BOWL
I'd like to tell you that a lot has changed entering the weekend of the big game.
Unfortunately, things are largely where they sat a couple of hours after the numbers first went up nearly two weeks ago. The sharps hit the NY Giants at the opener of +14. When it was clear that EVERBODY was betting the Giants early, some sharps got it at +13. The line went to +12, and sat there like a bump on the log ever since.
Complicating matters:
Tom Brady's high ankle sprain made it very hard for anyone to load up on the Patriots minus the points. He missed practices late in the first week, then was seen playing with a slight limp in the second week. That doesn't inspire confidence in a blowout. And, you HAVE to expect a blowout if you're going to lay 12 points in a neutral field game.


As I mentioned in the past, members of the general public most prone to bet on the Patriots lost most of their money betting on the Patriots the past two months. They haven't covered a playoff game. They're 1-7 ATS the last eight times they took the field, and 2-8 ATS since the mid point of the regular season. Where is the favorite money going to come from?
I can tell you there a lot of sharps with a bit more exposure on the Giants than they'd like on those early bets. They might hit the Patriots at -12 and drive the line back up a bit. In that initial "panic buying," there was some thought that the line might make it down to -11. These guys are hoping for that. If they don't see it happening, they'll go ahead and shoot their middles (with heavier action on the Giants than the Pats) in the 12-14 range.
We have seen some money come in on the Over lately. The opener was 53.5. It dropped at first just a bit. Now I'm seeing some 54's or better out there. Some of the guys who specialize in totals are projecting a game in the high 50's. That's out of character for them. But, you can see how they'd get that with New England's ability to score in good weather. They played a lot of Overs in the first two months of the season. If you only do math projections based on those games, you get a bunch of points being scored in a warm weather stadium with a retractable roof. Weather won't be an issue that hurts the offenses.
It's rare for me to say that the sharps like an Over! And, to be honest, it's not really the case that ALL sharps like the Over. There's definitely some push and shove here. Honestly, I know guys who live the Under, and think the current line is off by more than a touchdown (particularly if Brady's going to be limping in the game). I know guys who think that 57 or 58 would be the better number based on Super Bowl histories and the game conditions. It will be interesting to see where this settles.
I mentioned earlier in the week that I've been hearing a lot of interesting discussions about the moneyline on the game. Right now, I'm seeing New England -425 to -450 or so in most places. Some have -500. There are a lot of sharps who LOVE New England at -400 or better, and will settle for -425 if that's the best they're going to see.
Their thinking:
The line opened -14, and only dropped to -12. A moneyline for that big a favorite should be much higher than the high 400's.


Even if the game turns out to be close, the Patriots are likely to find a way to win. The sharps thing they have a coaching advantage with Bellicheck over Coughlin, and a quarterback advantage with Brady over Eli Manning. The Patriots will either win easily, or win hard...but they're going to win.


The Giants are due to run out of gas after playing three straight road games. The Patriots had a bye week, and played two home games. That means they should be much fresher coming into the game, and in the fourth quarter of a hardfought battle if it turns out to be close.


New England hasn't lost yet! An 18-0 team looks like a bargain at anything in the 400's with that in mind.
The opposing line of thought:
The opening line was way too high, and the current line of 12 may STILL be too high. It's just that everybody who wanted the Giants already got the better line. The moneylines we're seeing are a better reflection of the reality of the game, which means there's no value on the favorite.


Super Bowls have had double digit favorites before, and they're far from sure things. In fact, the Patriots were once a double digit dog that won outright against St. Louis. There have been 12 Super Bowls with double digit spreads. Favorites are just 8-4 straight up. That's the equivalent of only -200 from the favorite's perspective.


Tom Brady is hurt. How can you lay -400 or more with an injured quarterback? Because he's hobbled, he's more prone to additional injury on a blitz. Do you want to lay -400 with the Pats if the backup QB is playing the second half?


The Giants know how to win as underdogs, having just done that three straight times on the road against division winners.


These teams have played already, and the Pats only won by three points. If the margin was that close, how could they be a -400 favorite or more on the moneyline in a rematch?
It's been an interesting discussion. Right now, most sharps are on the Patriots side of this. They really like the coach/quarterback edge...and they expect Brady to play well enough to win. They also like having a shot at a middle. If they can't have a 11-14 middle or so with their Giants team side bets...they can have a 0-14 middle with this! Sure, it's expensive to lay that big number with the Pats. But, if the Pats win by 1-13 points, then sharps with the Pats on the moneyline but the Giants +14 win their bets. If the Pats win a blowout, no harm no foul. If the Patriots lose outright, that's going to hurt a bit. The sharps are willing to risk that because they see New England winning this game better than 80% of the time.
What about props?
There are far too many props to discuss in this article. The sports books are throwing everything they can on the wall because action on the game itself hasn't been up to expectations. The best advice I can give (for free) is to consider the role the stadium will have on the game. It's a place with a retractable roof, which means conditions will be ideal. That helps:
Offenses
Quarterbacks
Receivers
Running backs on the team that gets a lead
Field goal kickers in terms of accuracy and distance
Punters in terms of distance
Most of the sharps I've heard getting involved with props are making their decisions with the game conditions in mind. I have to admit that Brady's injury has kept some sharps on the sidelines. When a question mark like that looms over a game, it's hard to have true confidence in many proposition plays

[Billy Barooooooo]

A FUNNY THING HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO THE SUPER BOWL!
I hadn't planned on talking about the Super Bowl until we got closer to game day. But, the early action has been so intense in Las Vegas and Reno that I wanted to provide a quick update.
The exact OPPOSITE of what many expected to happen occurred as soon as the lines went up. There was some general thought that New England would be about a two-touchdown favorite over the Giants...and that the line would go UP right away to something approaching 16 or 17. Now, I'm not saying that EVERYBODY thought this was going to happen. But, if you listed to the talk in the sportsbooks, this was the prevailing line of thought.
The game would open around -14.
The Patriots would get bet up right away by early public money and sharps (Vegas professionals) wanted to stake a position on a key number
You could get the Giants at +16 or even +17 if you waited awhile
Most of the public thought this. Many sharps did too. As is normally the case, the public was thinking about how to get the favorite at an affordable price. The sharps were looking at how to maximize the value of an underdog bet. At least, that's what everyone "said" they were thinking. Once the number went up on the board, here's what happened.
Nobody wanted the Patriots!
The public, who had just watched the NY Giants play very well for the third week in a row (by the way, my only service release in the football that day was the Giants +7.5), decided that 14 points was just too much for a neutral site game. Patriots' fans didn't want to lay that many points. Giants' fans gladly took the number thinking it was a gift.
The sharps, who wanted New York all along, suddenly realized that the line WASN'T going to go up! They had better get +14 while it was available because there was no guarantee they would see it again. So much for waiting for +16 of +17. So much for taking an early position on the Pats. About the ONLY money on New England was from position takers, and they were outnumbered by Giant backers who wanted the two touchdowns.
It was clear that the line was going to come down. The position takers bought out of their plays and swallowed some juice (you can't have a big play on New England -14 and NY Giants +13 because if it lands on one of those numbers you lose big). There was almost a panic buying effect on the Giants. Get them now before the good numbers are gone!
The line went down to +13, and Giants money STILL kept coming in! Who knows how low the line would go? New York was playing its best football of the year right now. New England has only covered two spreads in the last ten weeks. When they faced each other in the regular season, the Pats only won by three. There were plenty of Nevada sports bettors who were okay at +13.
The line is currently New England -12.
Just when you thought you've seen everything...
It's very uncharacteristic for money to be coming in AGAINST a team that's been hyped by the media for weeks, particularly one with a chance to make history. The public rushes to those teams like moths to a lamp. What happened here?
People who have been betting on New England a lot lately are BROKE! The lines have been way too high for a couple of months. Even if they wanted to bet the Pats in the big game, they don't have the money right now. Or, if they have something left, they're tired of losing every week. It's like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown in those old "Peanuts" comics. Patriots' bettors have been frustrated and lying on their backs for two months.
People who have been betting on the Giants lately are RICH! They cashed the season finale against the Patriots, and they won three games outright as underdogs in the playoffs. Of course, those guys are going to keep betting!
There's a perception in Vegas that "New York money" eventually finds its way to Vegas if you know what I mean. If you don't, I'm not explaining it! The sharps realized that the early money was on the Giants, and that even MORE money from New York may be coming in during the course of the fortnight. The sharps knew they didn't want to take +14 if they were going to see +16 later in the week. But, if the line was only going to be +11 later on, they'd better get down quick at +14 or +13.
All the computer guys in town were showing edges for the Giants just because a computer isn't going to make one playoff caliber team a 14-point favorite on a neutral site over another one. Once those guys saw what was happening, they acted early too. The public, and the sharps, and the syndicates all wanted the Giants at the same time. Anybody who wanted the Pats was low on funds.
Is the line going to stay at New England -12 the rest of the way? I wouldn' be surprised to see some late money come in on the Patriots. The public does like favorites, particularly in the Super Bowl. Many just won't be able to help themselves. But, the Giants backers are pretty serious, as are the syndicates. They can't justify a number this high on neutral field. If the public hits the Pats, it may only get back to 13 before the Giants money moves again. I'm very interested to see what happens.
On the weekend of the big game, I'll go over some of the reasons why the sharps like the Giants, and I'll try to find some props that they're playing. We'll also have a better sense of where the line is going to settle. It could turn out that some sharps flip over to New England if we see a continued drop. You can't ever assume the most recent surprise was the LAST surprise!
The total is currently sitting at 53.5 or 54 in most places after opening at 55. This was kind of a mini-version of the team side story. Pats backers will like the Over because of the offense. Giants backers will like the Under because the defense has played well in the playoffs. There was less money involved, but it was the same story. I think we'll see some movement here between now and the next time we talk football.
That's the Super Bowl news from out here.

[Stifler's Mom]

Good stuff BB. I've said all along it was a combination of sharp money and public money bringing the line down from +14. There's just NO WAY the public opinion scares any book enough to move the line as much as 2.5 points and risk being middled.

The only people I see jumping on the Pats bandwagon right now are some real squares and the normal anti-pubs....and I haven't seen one good reason to bet on NE from anyone, weather it be here, on TV, in an article, or anywhere else. I can tell you, that as much as I can look and see Sports Insights showing about 64% on NYG, I could get any group of regular old Joe Pubs together who are just casual football fans and 8 of 10 will tell you the NYG don't stand a chance. So what really is the public opinion?

There's good reason no one wants to lay the points with NE too, IMHO. They're been overvalued forever, and they're not blowing anyone out anymore. Defenses have figured them out a bit, and if anyone can get pressure on Brady, it should be Strahan and Co. The NYG had a chance to run away with that game in week 17, and Manning threw an INT, sparking the NE comeback. If NYG scores there and goes up 3 scores, it's pretty much goodnight for NE. So while NY couldn't stop NE in the 4th qtr, they sure had them in check for 3 of em.

Then, if you look back over past super bowls, just look which team came in hotter, and see how many times they won. There's no question that the NYG are the hotter team right now, even if they're not the better one.

In addition, how many times has the team known for the light up the scoreboard offense actually come into the super bowl and just hammered their opponent by scoring time after time? Not often. The super bowl is usually a blow out (when it is) because one team commits a ton of turnovers and/or their offense is dominated by the winning team's defense.

And if these douches on ESPN really think spy gate allegations are a bigger motivation to NE than winning the super bowl and going 19-0, they're the stupidest people on the planet.

IMO, the NYG win outright, or at the very least have the chance to at the end and blow it somehow.

Someone who likes NE to roll and cover the spread, tell me why I'm wrong. I'm as skeptical of the public being on NYG as the rest of you, but I'll be honest, I can't find a good reason to play NE other than that they steamrolled some pretty ****in ****ty teams in the 1st half of the season and played one of the weakest schedules I've ever seen.

IMO NE is a great team, not saying they aren't. It takes a great team to go 18-0, even against a weak schedule. But how many of their wins were against quality teams? Indy by 4? NYG by 3? Jax by 11? SD by 9? Ignore the first SD game, as SD was AWFUL the first few games of the season. There is DAL by 21, but, that game was close till the end and the 21 pt margin was in no way any indicator of the way the game was played.

Then look at the rest of the crap they played (the ones they blew out). 2X NYJ, 2X MIA, 2X BUF, CIN, BAL, PHI, WSH (when they were playing terrible) and PIT. Not a playoff team in the bunch other than PIT and WSH, both of which got dispatched in the 1st round, and the ones they blew out were pretty much a collection of who's the worst teams in the NFL.

So NE can beat good teams and blow out crappy ones. That's the conclusion I come to.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

bump