SUPER BOWL XLll

[homedawg]

ok...here are this jackass's official play for the superbowl...



Lang - Super Bowl

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100 DIME

NEW YORK GIANTS

Free Pick - OVER

Final Score: 30-27 Patriots

7 FUN PROP BETS - prices and odds will of course vary


1) Coint Toss - Tails
2) National Anthem : OVER 1:42
3) Burress MVP - 8/1
4) Jacobs MVP - 10/1
5) Burress First TD +800
6) Giants score first +155
7) Team to score first won't win game +180


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I was already leaning towards the Patriots...liking them more now...

And I can understand giving out some prop plays...but the coin toss??????????? I'd love to see what type of handicapping 'skills' went into that pick...lol

:thumbs:

100 DIME



NEW YORK GIANTS



Free Pick - OVER



Final Score: 30-27 Patriots



It wouldn't surprise me if the Giants shocked the world today.



Let me first take you back in time to a game that really made the Giants the play here for me and it wasn't the first meeting between these two.



The Patriots had just come out of their bye week after beating the Colts the week before and went to Buffalo.



They destroyed the Bills 56-10 in as big domination as I have ever seen and I truly believe that was the highlight of their perfection as a team.



In other words, that was the time they were playing their absolute best. I mean, best.



Here came the Eagles off their bye week, 2 solid weeks to prepare with a back up QB in A.J. Feeley and they flat out punched the bully in the mouth.



Feeley threw a pick six on the 3rd play of the game and everyone thought the route was on.



Not so fast. Eagles came right back on a 14 play drive covering 77 yards taking 7 minutes off the clock to tie it up at 7 and the game was on.



They attacked the Patriots on both sides of the ball, all night long and didn’t sit back like everyone else and put themselves in a position to win.



They got the ball on their own 8 yard line, just over 7 minutes to go down 31-28 and went right through New England like a knife through melted butter.



It took 7 plays to get to the Patriots 29 yard line and they faced a 2nd and 4 when Feely got impatient and showed why he is a backup.



He forced a throw into the end zone and the interception ended it.



What I took from that game is the Patriots were vulnerable to a team that wasn't afraid to come after them.



Seriously, A.J Feeley was 27 of 42 for 336 yards and even with the 3 interceptions they received the Patriots struggled to beat them at home.



I fully expect the Giants to again borrow from the Eagles gameplan and Ravens for that matter and come after the Patriots even harder than the first meeting.



Coughlin knows Belichick having coached with him at New York on Parcells staff and that knowledge is invaluable at this level.



Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo not only had 8 years under his belt with Jimmy Johnson of the Eagles but has 2 weeks to prepare for round 2.



People, I sat at home last week and watched the first meeting between these 2 over 6 times. Every play and I kept asking myself the same question over and over.



"Can New England blow this team out."



I just don't see it. The Giants came away from that first game with hope and confidence and in a game as big as this, not being afraid of the big bad wolf is a good thing.



New England is limping to the finish line. I mean limping and anybody out there who thinks they aren't is in denial.



They should have lost to the Eagles and the Ravens. No doubt about it. I know they didn't, but they are a blink of an eye from being 16-2.



Do we forget they struggled against the Jets 20-10 at home and the Dolphins went into Gillette and held them scoreless the last 35 minutes of the game?



Patriots had 2 weeks to prepare for the Jaguars and couldn't stop them. The Chargers, yes, the Chargers, with a one legged QB, a one footed all pro tight end and no LT had them on the ropes.



Eli Manning and offensive coordinator Kevin Gillbride are as in sync as any two guys I have seen. It was magic what they did in Green Bay.



Eli has finally got it and if you don't think he is like a kid in a candy store ready to attack this New England defense again, the one he threw 4 touchdowns against, you are crazy.



In my opinion, 3 things have to happen for the Giants to shock the world and win this game.



First, they must get to Brady with their front four. They have to win that battle. Secondly, they must win the turnover battle. Thirdly, they have to out rush New England.



I am as confident as I have ever been in handicapping this Super Bowl that if they accomplish those 3 things, they are your champions on Sunday.



However, those are 3 very tough things to do against an 18-0 New England team that has found ways to win every game this year.



Bottom line is this folks. I didn't get to 15-0-2 in this game by taking the easy way out and playing the favorite. Nope, my streak has been kept alive by finding the underdog.



The Giants, much like the Panthers and Eagles before them, is the play today.



I really believe the Giants will have a shot down the stretch to win this game outright. I really do. Whether they actually pull it off we will have to wait and see.



Their offense went up and down the field in the first meeting and scored more points on the Patriots than anybody this entire year.



I will gladly take the points and call for the Giants to at least get 27 points in the game and like I said, it wouldn't surprise me if they pulled off the miracle.



But at the end of the day, I look for the Patriots to do what they did in their two previous Super Bowls as the favorite, win but don't cover.



FINAL SCORE



Patriots 30-27'

__________________________________________________ _________________


I just checked the service boards, most released in the last 24hrs, and it looks like every f'n tout is on the gmen...


Why didn't vegas move the line?

:beer2:

[homedawg]

Based on a point spread of New England -12, analysis at default settings shows New England as the strong favorite to win the game, with win odds of 88.5% and an expected margin of 13.5 points. Similar games analysis indicates that the Vegas spread is efficient, as neither team has greater than 55% odds to cover. (There is a 3-5% margin of error at play in the GameZone calculations.)

ALERT: The GameZone tool's analysis methods assume this is a home game for New England. As there is not enough relevant data to base predictions solely on historical neutral site NFL games, one must use other data to try and assess the relative impact of both teams playing away from home, and adjust the baseline predictions accordingly.

Notes from the Nerds: Analytically, we can investigate the potential impact of a neutral site using the TeamRankings.com home/away power ratings for this season. As we all know, the Giants have excelled on the road, especially recently; their away power rating is 44.2, good for a #2 ranking. However, guess who is ranked #1 in away power rating for the season? The Pats, of course (rating of 51.5). Mathematically, considering the entire season, the advantage is still with New England.

At the same time, the Giants, who have a horrible home power ranking (#20) and an abysmal home advantage of -9.7 points (last in the NFL), nearly upset the Pats at home in Week 17. Which begs the question...was that game just a wild anomaly, or the start of a longer term trend of overperformance? And if so, just how irrelevant are the Giants' results from the earlier part of the season, today?

This is not an easy problem, but the good news is that the GameZone tool gives you a quick way to investigate the matchup from several angles. If you believe the Giants' recent momentum is of strong importance, you can set the time filters for factors like Points Scored and Average Margin of Victory all to "Last 3" (games), and increase the importance of those factors using the sliders. Then see how the predictions change based on the historical matchup data.

Here are some thoughts on potential changes to make to the default settings:

DECREASE importance of Distance Traveled, since both teams are going a similar distance to Phoenix, and have many days to acclimate
INCREASE the importance of Week of Game to the highest level if you want to focus the tool on historical playoff results
SET time filters for factors to "Last 3" where applicable and increase their relative importance if you want to adjust for momentum
DECREASE the importance of season power ratings one notch to adjust for momentum; just remember, these are powerful stats, so we can't advise ignoring them!
One more piece of data you should know about, and that is not yet included in the GameZone tool, is our Last 10 power rating. You can find this data toward the bottom of the Patriots and Giants team pages in the NFL section of our site. Filtered for away games only, the Last 10 Power Ratings for the Giants and Pats are extremely close, and by this measure New England is only the #4 ranked team in the NFL. So the Pats' relative advantage in away games diminishes when only the last 10 games are considered. However, remember that the sample size of games included in this measure is smaller, so this is a less "accurate" statistic than season-long measures.

(By the way, you will also notice that the prediction listed at the bottom of each team page favors New England at 76.4% win odds by 9.9 points. This prediction is 100% based on power ratings and not on the more diverse range of data included in the GameZone predictions tool. Subtract the Patriots' home advantage of 1.4 points, and the power ratings only method produces a prediction of New England by 8.5 points. That is the "old school" part of our site, but another interesting data point nonetheless.)

As you experiment, you should also scroll down the list of historically similar games identified by the tool, and look to see how the team like the Giants did specifically in games where the underdog faced a spread in the range of +12 (there aren't many) and how that compares to the predictions at the top. At the tool's default settings, the team like New York has covered more than twice as many times (9-4) as the the team like New England in historically similar games with spreads of 10 or greater. However, the team similar to the Giants only won two of those games straight up.

So what is the Nerds' final call? First, there is no way in heck we'd ever pick the Giants to win. They do have a chance for an upset -- across various angles, the tool has New England at 80-85% odds to win. So the Giants will win one out of every five or six of these matchups in typical scenarios, maybe a little more than that on netural turf. Still, we'll play the odds on that. Even if the momentum and situational aspects not measured by the tool are in the Giants' favor, it is hard to imagine them making New York an expected winner. If they pull it off, more power to them.

Regarding the spread, we would not bet this game. We simply don't have the level of relevant data we need to make a very educated decision. Regarding our $20 fun wager, however, right now we'll take the Giants to cover. We're apt to give them some extra credit for their recent performance in ways not measured by our data, and for their Week 17 performance against the Pats. We'll say slight favorites at +12, a strong pick at +13, and if you got them at +14...we may even have laid down our pocket protectors and protractors on that one. This assumes no injury to Tom Brady, of course, although we love all the theories and gossip surrounding that situation.

We'll be updating this analysis every few days as the game nears. Remember that injuries, weather, and a whole bunch of other stuff aren't considered by the GameZone predictions tool. That last 10%-15% of making a prediction is often where the most fun lies...

[Underdog88]

Weak writeup for Lang, IMO. He's saying what every f'n square I talk to is sayin'. New England is hurt, they almost lost to Philly, the G-men have had 2 weeks to prepare for NE, blah, blah blah. He seriously is gonna bring up how the Fins held the Pats scoreless for however long? They won by 21 points!



The game played @ NY was close. Eli played great, but the Giants couldn't stop the Pats offense... how do you play on a dog that likely won't be able to stop the offense? Brady went 32-42 for 356 last meeting. I think he repeats that performance, while I really can't say the same for Eli. Pats ATS, ML & probably team total over as well for me.


Eli + Gilbride = magic?










:laughing:

[homedawg]

Weak writeup for Lang, IMO. He's saying what every f'n square I talk to is sayin'. New England is hurt, they almost lost to Philly, the G-men have had 2 weeks to prepare for NE, blah, blah blah. He seriously is gonna bring up how the Fins held the Pats scoreless for however long? They won by 21 points!



The game played @ NY was close. Eli played great, but the Giants couldn't stop the Pats offense... how do you play on a dog that likely won't be able to stop the offense? Brady went 32-42 for 356 last meeting. I think he repeats that performance, while I really can't say the same for Eli. Pats ATS, ML & probably team total over as well for me.


Eli + Gilbride = magic?










:laughing:

:thumbs: the dude is diggin' for reasons to take the points... could be a 14pt nep win, and could be a 41 pt nep win. I just cant find a SOLID reason to take the gaints at anything under 14.. :beer2:

[FearTheRaven]

I think the bets on Fri, Sat, Sun will push this line back up to around 14.

I do think that the same NE formula comes back into play for this one.

NE + Over. Remember when it hit like the first 6 games.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Lang is bang on once again this Year. :beerbang:

The guy knows his Super Bowls, lol!


Giants win outright.

[homedawg]

The New York Giants are officially the NFC Conference Champions for this season after capping off an incredible end with a huge win in Green Bay in freezing cold weather almost two weeks ago on Sunday. I know right off the bat that everyone is going to jump on the Giants in this game because of their 38-35 loss to these same Patriots in the final regular season game of the year but betting based on that would be a huge mistake because how many times do you see return matches be as close or as blowout-ish as the first ones? Almost never. The Giants are in incredible form ever since their come from behind win over the Bills late in the season and I don't think anyone thought that they could walk into Tampa Bay to steal a win, walk into Dallas to steal a win and walk into Green Bay and steal a win. I don't think any of those teams had more than 2-3 home losses all season. So the Giants are now an incredible 10-1 AWAY FROM HOME THIS SEASON and they have gone 10-1 ATS in those very same games. So you must wonder how one can fade this team under these circumstances but its not tough because looking back on their season, the Giants (prior to the playoffs), played on the road and beat Buffalo (non playoff team), Philadelphia (non playoff team), Chicago (non playoff team), Detroit (non playoff team), Miami (non playoff team), Atlanta (non playoff team) and last but not least Washington (playoff team). So before coming into the playoffs the Giants had beat only playoff team on the road. I have a feeling some of their momentum is gone and that's going to be a huge issue for this team. The Giants come into this game averaging 23.2 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 325.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. What people tend to underestimate is how well the Patriots have played on the defensive side of things this season having allowed only 17.0 points per game this season and having allowed only 293.0 total yards of offense per game on the year and 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Giants are going to need both RB Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to be at their best in this game as the team has average 130.2 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. We all know that New England has had problems stopping the run but if the Giants go down early I don't see how running the ball is going to get them anywhere. New England has allowed only 97.6 rushing yards per game this season and allowed 4.4 yards carry in those games. In the air, QB Eli Manning has waited for this for quite some time and you can bet your bottom dollar he is going to be nervous. Manning has completed 56.3% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 3336 total passing yards, 23 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. He is going up against this New England defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.6% of their passes on the season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt and that is exactly what they need to keep it at. The Patriots are just as good as the Giants when it comes to the pass rush as they average 2.7 sacks per game this season and are facing an offensive line that has allowed 1.8 sacks per game on the season. I also like the fact that the Pats have a bunch of playmaking aggressive guys in their secondary as they have picked off 1.2 passes this season which could be a huge problem for Eli when he faces them for the second time this season after looking brilliant the first time out. I would love to say that the Giants have gone without too many fumbling problems this season but they have fumbled the ball 1.6 times per game and any type of mistake like that is really going to be a big problem in this game because the Super Bowl is all about who can make the bigger plays. The Giants have not exactly been all that good when it comes to third down conversions this season as they have managed to convert only 41.6% of their chances on the year and that is going to be a problem again this Patriots defense that has allowed their opponents to complete only 33.5% of their third down chances on the season. If you are going to win the biggest game of them all you need to be good in the Red Zone and the Giants have now scored touchdowns in 56.1% of their Red Zone entries this season which doesn't bode well for them seeing how New England has allowed opponents to score touchdowns 55.3% of the time once entering the Red Zone. The key to this game for this offense is going to be how fast they can get back into the groove that they had at the end of the season. Its never easy starting from scratch after two weeks off and getting back into the motions is very difficult. Eli Manning is no Peyton Manning and that has me concerned because he lacks the big game experience that guys like Brady and Manning have playing in AFC Championship Games or Super Bowl Games. I think the offense is going to stutter terribly if the Patriots come out swinging and if the Patriots take a big lead by the half they lights are just not coming back on. The Patriots have played decent defense all season and that's all that really matter.

[homedawg]

cont:

The New England Patriots thought they had it all, they have the perfect 16-0 record on the season, they are now the best team to ever play the game of American Football but you and me and everyone all know that this season will not be complete if this team does not bring home the Super Bowl on Sunday. Nothing matters unless you bring home that ring and nothing matters unless you win the one game that actually means something for once. Now the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl did not come without event as it was announced that QB Tom Brady could possibly have some kind of broken foot or broken bone in his foot as he was seen walking around with a cast boot on his foot but it has not been confirmed as nothing more than precautionary measures for his ankle problem that has been coming on and off all season. This injury should not hamper the teams chances at all and I don't see why Brady would be affected by this. Now looking back on how the Pats did on the road compared to how they did at home (ATS wise that is), it seems like they played with a lot less pressure away from home this season where they went 5-3 ATS on the year and where odds makers never really gave them enough credit in those games. I know its really tough for some of you to back a team that is now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and that has not even covered the spread one single time this post-season but I'm telling you that the two weeks off are going to have made all the difference in the world with this Patriots team and if the Giants are not ready for what is coming, this game is going to be done by the time we hit the half, I'm sure you've heard me say that before. New England comes into this game averaging a whopping 35.6 points per game this season and no matter what they have done this post season , there is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots are going to match this average and they are going to probably score more than that. In those games, the Pats also managed to average a whopping 407.2 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play which is good enough if their defense can hold off the G-Men, unlike the final week of the season. The Giants are actually a lot better than people assume on the defensive side of things as they have allowed only 21.2 points per game this season and have allowed 303.2 total yards of offense per game in those games for 5.2 yards per play which is pretty damn good. The Patriots running game is important but its not key to the win and cover here as they average only 119.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry while the Giants have managed to hold teams to only 95.1 rushing yards per game on the season and 3.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Tom Brady is the master of Super Bowl Games having never actually lost in the Super Bowl and although that is not about to change this time around, I would like to point out that experience of playing in more than one of these games is priceless. Brady has completed an impressive 68.9% of his passes this season for 4806 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 50 TOUCHDOWN PASSES and only 8 INTERCEPTIONS!!!. Now that is some incredible stuff for a QB who also had a QB Rating of 117.2 on the season. The Giants secondary needs to show up for this game or it will get ugly in a hurry as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.8% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt which is plenty of space and time for Tom Brady to get the job done. Brady has been well protected all season as the offensive line has been great and they have allowed only 1.3 sacks per game. That's the best news Patriots backers could hear is that the O-Line is well rested because they are going to have their hands full with a Giants pass rush that is the best by far in the NFL (by at least 10 sacks) and that is averaging a whopping 2.9 sacks per game on the season. I would not say that it has been easy for Giants opponents to move the ball through the air because it hasn't but the opportunities are there and I am sure that Tom Brady is going to take full advantage of the situation. Unlike the Giants, the Patriots have not had and do no have a problem holding onto the fumble as they have lost only 15 fumbles all season and that is probably one of the lowest margins or amounts in the NFL. We all know how aggressive the pass rush is and how aggressive some of these defenders are but the Patriots just plain and simply don't make big mistakes and that's not changing here. What makes the Patriots once again the more enticing wager in this game is the fact that they are converting a whopping 49.1% of their third down chances this season and going up against a Giants team that has now allowed opponents to convert 37.1% of the time. Moving onto the Red Zone attack, the Patriots have the best Red Zone offense in the NFL as they have scored touchdown in a crazy 69.5% of the times they have entered the Red Zone. That is definitely not a good sign for the Giants who have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns in 60.0% of their Red Zone entries this season. You know there is really not much else to be said about this team other than they are amazing, they have the best offense in all of football, this is the biggest game of most of their careers. The offense should have no problems moving the ball and picking apart the Giants and as long as there are no significant injuries, I say this game is going to be a blowout. This is a team that is going to score close to 40 points every single time you see them and if they can get that going in this game, there is no chance that the Giants are going to pull the office stung that got us our doc killed. LMAO! I expect this offense to be pure Bill Bellichik and his mastermind stuff which is why I am betting on the guys and the coaches who have already won Super Bowl wins with this game. New England is here because they mean business and the Giants just don't have the defense to keep up in this game. I say blowout in this game and I say yet another boring super bowl.

This is the way I look at this game guys. If you watched TV the last two weeks, if you followed experts on message boards, if you read the newspapers, if you bought some analysis online, if you filled out your Super Bowl props and picks sheet and if you are watching this football game on Sunday, the odds are that everyone is on the Giants assuming that they can do exactly what they did the first time against the Patriots in that season ending game that allowed New England to go a perfect 16-0 on the season. However, what you have to understand about that first meeting was that the Giants had absolutely nothing to lose, they were loose, they were having fun and they were hoping for the best to come out of that game and it did. The Patriots on the other hand had been fighting week in and week out the entire season to keep their perfect record and we know how banged up they were and they were most definitely very vulnerable the first time against these Giants. Now...they are coming off a full two weeks of rest, preparation and practice where they most definitely went over tons and tons of game tape from the first meeting and I don't think there is much more to argue about here other than the fact that the Patriots have more experience, they are the better team, they are not going to have a perfect season and lose this game. I love that everyone is on the Giants and that the Giants are the flavor of the month because its rare that Super Bowl Games are close and this one should be no different this year. You cannot possibly think that the Pats are going to revert to the close type of games they played in the second half of the season and if you ask me this game is going to be out of hand by the time we hit the half and the Patriots are going to sail to the best overall season in professional sports history. They deserve it and betting on the Giants to keep things close is a huge mistake in this game.

Trend of the Game: New England is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games played on natural grass.


New England 42, NY Giants 13

[dananderson32]

HD posting hes on NE rest of you posting hes on giants? :help: :help:

[homedawg]

HD posting hes on NE rest of you posting hes on giants? :help: :help:

DA, ya been out in the cold too long????? wtf does Blang's pick have to do with mine?

Blang is on the gmen & I am on the pats!

:drunk:

[dananderson32]

DA, ya been out in the cold too long????? wtf does Blang's pick have to do with mine?

Blang is on the gmen & I am on the pats!

:drunk:

yeah man i just got in from shoveling my driveway ......nothing like shoveling hard snow mixed with rain :bang: :bang: :bang:

[homedawg]

yeah man i just got in from shoveling my driveway ......nothing like shoveling hard snow mixed with rain :bang: :bang: :bang:

we got the same weather here... my backyard was an ice rink this am and now a pond... crazy weather...
time to crack open another bottle of crownroyal! :beerbang:

[yomonte]

Crown Royal is over rated

[SRN1985]

Crown Royal is over rated

Common misconception....


Still has great taste:beer2:

[FearTheRaven]

Pats still have game-tape from the first time they met. :thumbs: