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San Diego Chargers +14 (-105)
3 units
San Diego Chargers ML +600
1 unit
Remember when the Eagles "showed the blueprint" on how to hang with NEP? Well, there have been 6 Patriots games since then.
Baltimore. The Raisins had them beat. Plain and simple. And the Raisins suck. It took NE about 14 chances to get that go ahead TD, a drive in which they were aided by the zebras IMHO.
Pittsburgh. Got handled. Pittsburgh turned out to be a not so good team though down the stretch of the season. In any case, one point for NE (and their only ATS cover in their last 7 games I believe), unless Miami was getting less than +21, which I don't think they were.
NY Jets. A model of sucks. 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NFL. NE beat them 20-10 at home. Not impressive. Granted, you can't smash everyone, but, that's what you're asking if you're going to lay -14....so it's relevant here. The most important point to me here is that NYJ held NE to 20 pts, not that the completely futile NYJ offense only scored 10.
Miami. Sucks even worse. By far the worst team in the NFL. NE beat them 28-7. Buffalo beat MIA by the same margin, and put up 10 more points than NE did, just 2 weeks prior. BUF is far from an offensive machine, and didn't even make the playoffs. So, IMHO, NOT impressive. And yes, NE DID try in that game. Brady/Moss were clearly going for records, and there's no way they wanted to let ****ty Miami slip in the back door late and ruin their perfect season with a fluke play or two in the 4th qtr.
NYG. Another team who had NE beat. Eli threw a pick in a situation where NYG could have all but put the game away. The momentum swung as a result, and NE got the win. But, only by 3 pts. Not going to take anything away from NYG because they're playing good football right now, and again, NE did do what it took to win the game. But, they won by 3. This week they're -14....so the fact that they barely won that contest is certainly relevant.
JAX. NE won by 11, after having a week off while JAX had to battle the Steelers in the first round. Again, NEP did not cover the spread, and a costly Garrard INT helped put the game away in the 3rd qtr after it was tied up at the half.
Now they face SD, who is playing great football, and is probably the best team out of all those that I have mentioned. The oddsmakers are asking NE to cover 2 TD's +. That's asking alot for a team who has won by more than 14 only twice in their last 7 games, and with 1 of those wins being over the freakin 1-15 Miami Dolphins.
Furthermore, San Diego is playing with double revenge here, attempting to avenge a week 2 loss @ NE (a game in which SD was clearly not the same team they are today), AND last year's playoff loss in which the Patriots players danced on the Chargers symbol at midfield.
Also, oddly enough, the Chargers have some of the same mismatches that NEP does. They have 2 very tall wideouts than can go up and get the ball over shorter defensive backs, much like Randy Moss does for NE. They also have a better TE in Gates, even if he's only 75-80%, and Turner doesn't seem to be much of a downgrade at RB if LT is limited.
I also believe it is an advantage for SD in that NE doesn't exactly know which San Diego QB/RB combo to prepare for, and that winds are expected to be between 16 and 27 MPH today in NE. While that is not terrible, it may still put a bit of a damper on the deep passes, an area in which NE would clearly have the advantage.
I just believe NE will have a tough time blowing out SD, as they haven't demonstrated the ability to blow out a decent team in the entire 2nd half of the season....and honestly, not only have they not blown out good teams, they have had some close ones against some very bad teams (BAL, NYJ), and a very average team (PHI).
San Diego is playing great football, and I believe they keep this game close. An outright win wouldn't shock me, as SD is certainly able to close games given the chance, but, Im really only asking them to cover the 2 touchdowns. The outright win would just be a bonus.
3 units
San Diego Chargers ML +600
1 unit
Remember when the Eagles "showed the blueprint" on how to hang with NEP? Well, there have been 6 Patriots games since then.
Baltimore. The Raisins had them beat. Plain and simple. And the Raisins suck. It took NE about 14 chances to get that go ahead TD, a drive in which they were aided by the zebras IMHO.
Pittsburgh. Got handled. Pittsburgh turned out to be a not so good team though down the stretch of the season. In any case, one point for NE (and their only ATS cover in their last 7 games I believe), unless Miami was getting less than +21, which I don't think they were.
NY Jets. A model of sucks. 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NFL. NE beat them 20-10 at home. Not impressive. Granted, you can't smash everyone, but, that's what you're asking if you're going to lay -14....so it's relevant here. The most important point to me here is that NYJ held NE to 20 pts, not that the completely futile NYJ offense only scored 10.
Miami. Sucks even worse. By far the worst team in the NFL. NE beat them 28-7. Buffalo beat MIA by the same margin, and put up 10 more points than NE did, just 2 weeks prior. BUF is far from an offensive machine, and didn't even make the playoffs. So, IMHO, NOT impressive. And yes, NE DID try in that game. Brady/Moss were clearly going for records, and there's no way they wanted to let ****ty Miami slip in the back door late and ruin their perfect season with a fluke play or two in the 4th qtr.
NYG. Another team who had NE beat. Eli threw a pick in a situation where NYG could have all but put the game away. The momentum swung as a result, and NE got the win. But, only by 3 pts. Not going to take anything away from NYG because they're playing good football right now, and again, NE did do what it took to win the game. But, they won by 3. This week they're -14....so the fact that they barely won that contest is certainly relevant.
JAX. NE won by 11, after having a week off while JAX had to battle the Steelers in the first round. Again, NEP did not cover the spread, and a costly Garrard INT helped put the game away in the 3rd qtr after it was tied up at the half.
Now they face SD, who is playing great football, and is probably the best team out of all those that I have mentioned. The oddsmakers are asking NE to cover 2 TD's +. That's asking alot for a team who has won by more than 14 only twice in their last 7 games, and with 1 of those wins being over the freakin 1-15 Miami Dolphins.
Furthermore, San Diego is playing with double revenge here, attempting to avenge a week 2 loss @ NE (a game in which SD was clearly not the same team they are today), AND last year's playoff loss in which the Patriots players danced on the Chargers symbol at midfield.
Also, oddly enough, the Chargers have some of the same mismatches that NEP does. They have 2 very tall wideouts than can go up and get the ball over shorter defensive backs, much like Randy Moss does for NE. They also have a better TE in Gates, even if he's only 75-80%, and Turner doesn't seem to be much of a downgrade at RB if LT is limited.
I also believe it is an advantage for SD in that NE doesn't exactly know which San Diego QB/RB combo to prepare for, and that winds are expected to be between 16 and 27 MPH today in NE. While that is not terrible, it may still put a bit of a damper on the deep passes, an area in which NE would clearly have the advantage.
I just believe NE will have a tough time blowing out SD, as they haven't demonstrated the ability to blow out a decent team in the entire 2nd half of the season....and honestly, not only have they not blown out good teams, they have had some close ones against some very bad teams (BAL, NYJ), and a very average team (PHI).
San Diego is playing great football, and I believe they keep this game close. An outright win wouldn't shock me, as SD is certainly able to close games given the chance, but, Im really only asking them to cover the 2 touchdowns. The outright win would just be a bonus.
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