NFL Playoff System till the Superbowl

[Billy Barooooooo]

Okay figured I would get it started

Play against the highest scoring team the prior week of playoffs!

So Playoff Week One

NO PLAY

Have to wait and see who puts up the most points this week! Than we will go against them the following week!

I will have a play against Seattle since they put up 41 last week but it won't count with this system!

Shout out to Spottie for coming up with this! Hope your living the dream in Vegas!!:thumbs:

BB

[Billy Barooooooo]

last year
2nd week loser with NE covering
3rd week High Score was NO and Chicago both Scored 27 so no play
Superbowl Chicago scored 39 points and lost to Indy (Winner)
So hopefully this will turn out better this year! Although we did have the Superbowl winner!!!!!

BB

[Stifler's Mom]

Shout out to Spoonie for coming up with this! Hope your living the dream in Vegas!!:thumbs:

BB

Spoonie Luv, is that you? :laughing:

[Billy Barooooooo]

Iam off Washington! To much movement for me!

Spoonie LMAO



TRENDS PERTAINING TO THE WILDCARD ROUND

Back in 1990, the NFL decided to change its playoff format by adding two teams to the mix (one per conference). That move changed the Wild Card round to what it is today. Since 1990, home teams in the Wildcard round are a respectable 47-21 SU and 36-29-3 ATS.

Teams that have lost at least their final 2 games of the regular season are 35-13 ATS in the Wild Card round.

Division Winners are 27-8 SU and 22-12-1 ATS if they played at home last game since 1990.

Playoff hosts that enter the postseason off a loss are 45-13 SU and 38-19-1 ATS since 1980. Included in those numbers are 43 teams who, not only lost their last game but allowed at least 21 points in that loss. These home teams have gone 30-13 ATS.

NFL Wild Card hosts are 36-22-2 ATS provided they are matched up against a non-division opponent. If the home team is lined as a favorite of -4.5 or more points, this situation improves to 20-10 ATS. The host improves to a solid 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS if its opponent checks in off back-to-back straight up wins. Those nine victories have come by margins of 11, 10, 7, 14, 25, 6, 25, 25 and 15 points respectively. That's an average victory of 15.3 points per game.

In the Wild Card round, underdogs or favorites of -7.5 or less are 10-31-2 ATS provided they beat the pointspread by nine points or more in their regular season finale. This trend is on a 5-25-2 ATS run including a horrendous 0-12-2 ATS provided its opponent checks in off a straight up loss.

Wild Card games are 2-13 O/U since 2000 when a team is playing off a BIG win (17 or more points) in their final regular season game.

[Billy Barooooooo]

Will see how Seattle and the under does in the first game! From the above info!

BB:thumbs:

[Billy Barooooooo]

The road to the Super Bowl
Here's how the individual playoff seeds have fared in making it to the
Super Bowl since 1990.
Seed AFC SB appearances, NFC SB appearances
1. 6 (35.3%) 11 (65%)
The No. 1 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl a combined 50 percent
of the time. That's good news for the Patriots and Cowboys.
2. 5 (29.4%) 5 (29.4%)
The No. 2 seeds have made the Super Bowl a combined 29 percent of the
time, which is a significant dropoff from the No. 1 seeds for Green
Bay and Indianapolis. But when you realize the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds
have a combined 79.4 percent chance of making it, it makes it tough
for the rest of the playoff teams and the mountain gets much steeper
from here on out.
3. 1 (6%) 1 (6%)
Reality sets in for the Chargers and Seahawks. Sure, both teams get a
home game this week but an extra game and a road trip next week are
hard to overcome.
4. 4 (23.5%) 0 (0%)
There seems like a little ray of hope in the AFC but overall the
Steelers and Bucs are looking at a 12 percent chance, which at least
looks better than the chances for the No. 3 seeds.
5. 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
The No. 5 seed has never been the place to be. The Jaguars and Giants
have other ideas this year but they are going to have to buck 17 years
of history. Both are capable of making something happen, but it is one
big mountain to climb. No one has ever done it!
6. 1 (6%) 0 (0%)
Only the Steelers under Bill Cowher came from the No. 6 seed and got
to the Super Bowl, which they won. The chances of a No. 6 seed making
it are 3 percent.

[Billy Barooooooo]

One thing I always make a habit of doing upon the completion of each NFL Regular Season is go back and compare how each team’s won/loss record measures up against its projected win total prior to the year. It’s pretty fun to go back and laugh at some of the teams the books and the public had tabbed as “contenders,” while at the same time marveling at those who came out of nowhere to make a big pile of cash for their backers.

Go through the list and see how many times you kick yourself and say “Damnit! Why didn’t I take that?” It’s pretty fun, or depressing, depending on your point of view. Of course, saying you knew New England would run the table in August is a lot different than saying the same in December.

Of the 32 teams, eight had a deviation of four or more from their projected win total. Interestingly, three came out of the AFC East. How badly do you wish you could build a time machine, go back to the summertime, and take New England ‘Over 11.5’? Two of the Pats division rivals did not fare nearly as well, as the Jets (4 wins) finished four games under their win total (8) and the Dolphins (1 win), not surprisingly, were the league’s biggest disappointment finish an astonishing six wins fewer than their projected total (7).

Despite completing the first-ever 16-0 regular season, New England was not the team that exceeded its future by the greatest margin. That honor would go to the NFC’s Green Bay Packers (13), who were 5.5 games better than what Vegas and the offshore books were expecting.

Both Dallas (13 wins) and Cleveland (10) exceeded expectations by four games. Too bad for the Browns that they were just the fourth 10-win team in history to fail to make the postseason since 1990 (when playoff format was last expanded).

Who were the big losers besides the Dolphins? St. Louis (3 wins) was next, as they were expected to finish .500 (-5). Then came the aforementioned Jets and the Ravens (5 wins), both of whom finished with four wins fewer than their future.
Team Future Wins The Diff
Green Bay 7.5 13 +5.5
New England 11.5 16 +4.5
Dallas 9 13 +4
Cleveland 6 10 +4
Tennessee 7 10 +3
Indianapolis 10.5 13 +2.5
Tampa Bay 7 9 +2
Jacksonville 9 11 +2
NY Giants 8 10 +2
Houston 6.5 8 +1.5
Washington 7.5 9 +1.5
Pittsburgh 9 10 +1
Minnesota 7 8 +1
Seattle 9 10 +1
Arizona 7 8 +1
Buffalo 6.5 7 +.5
San Diego 10.5 11 +.5
Detroit 6.5 7 +.5
Oakland 5 4 -1
Philadelphia 9 8 -1
Atlanta 5.5 4 -1.5
Cincinnati 9 7 -2
Carolina 9 7 -2
Denver 9.5 7 -2.5
New Orleans 9.5 7 -2.5
Chicago 10 7 -3
San Francisco 8 5 -3
Kansas City 7.5 4 -3.5
NY Jets 8 4 -4
Baltimore 9 5 -4
St. Louis 8 3 -5
Miami 7 1 -6

[Billy Barooooooo]

All discussions of the 2007 NFL season must begin with the Patriots, who became the first team to go unscathed through a16-game NFL season (expanded in 1978). At 16-0, the Patriots were one of 11 teams to win 10-plus games in '07, with only the 10-6 Cleveland Browns failing to make the postseason. The record for most 10-win teams in a single season is 13, happening in both the 2003 and 2005 seasons. In both of those seasons, we saw a 10-win team fail to advance to the playoffs (like the Browns this year). In '03 it was the Dolphins and in '05 it was the Chiefs. The only other time a 10-win failed to qualify for the postseason, since the league expanded its playoff field to 12 teams in 1990, was in 1991, when the 49ers missed out at 10-6.

Of course the Pats are one of four teams with this first weekend off and as my dad would say, "and rightly so!" New England scored an all-time single-season high of 589 points. It broke the previous record, which was set in 1998 by the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings scored 556 points that season, 23 points less than the Pats. However, the Pats averaged "just" 36.8 PPG in 2007, failing to break the best single-season scoring average of 38.8 PPG, set by the Los Angeles Rams back in 1950. That year, the Rams scored 466 points in a 12-game season!

The Pats did, however, lead a point 'explosion' in the NFL this past season. Consider this. The NFL expanded to a 16-game schedule back in 1978 and the Dallas Cowboys were the league's highest scoring team that year, scoring 384 points (24.0 PPG). That figure would have ranked the Cowboys 11th in the 2007 season! As recently as 1990, when the playoff field was expanded to 12 teams, just two teams topped 400 points that year, led by Buffalo's 428.

A record eight teams scored 400 points or more this year, with only the Cards (404), failing to win 10 games, going 8-8. The Chargers, who ranked 5th in points scored with 412, stand out among the 400-point scorers, as San Diego finished just 20th in the league in total yards!

One last note on the Pats and then another about the "all but forgotten" defending champs, before moving on to this weekend's Wild Card round. New England outscored its opponents by 315 points this year. Those 315 points represent more points than 11 NFL teams scored in their respective 16-game schedules in '07.

As for the Colts, Indy actually IMPROVED its regular season record from LY (14-2 compared to 13-3) and allowed an NFL-low, 262 points (98 fewer than LY!). Despite the fact that future Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison missed most of the season, the Colts offense scored 23 more points in 2007 than it did in 2006! What's team got to do to get noticed? The answer is, go 16-0!

Six of this year's 12-team playoff field competed in the 2006 postseason, while six new teams join the fray. The repeaters are the Chargers (two straight), Colts (six straight), Cowboys (two straight), Giants (three straight), Pats (five straight) and Seahawks (five straight). The six newcomers are the Bucs, Jags, Packers, Redskins, Steelers and Titans. However, the Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Washington franchises are hardly new to the NFL's postseason, owning a combined 11 Super Bowl titles between them.

Of the newcomers, Tennessee has endured the longest playoff drought having not made the playoffs in any of the three prior seasons and Green Bay is back in the playoffs after missing the last two seasons. Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Washington are all back after a year's absence.

What happened to the six teams from last season that failed to make this season's playoffs? Five finished 2007 with LOSING records (Baltimore, Chicago, Kansas City, New Orleans and the Jets), while Philadelphia finished 8-8. Collectively, these six teams were a combined 35-61 (.364) SU in 2007 and 37-57-2 (.394) ATS! Guys, we hardly knew you!

The quality of this season's playoff field is better than that of last season when three 9-7 teams made the playoffs, as did an 8-8 team. The combined record of last season's 12 playoff teams was 129-63 (.672). The record of this season's 12 playoff teams is 135-57 (.703).

Despite the presence of New England and Indianapolis in the AFC, the gap between the two conferences narrowed this season when comparing interconference results. After years of dominating the NFC, the AFC only managed a split of the 64 regular season games against NFC teams this season, with the NFC eking out a slightly better pointspread record in these games, going 31-30-1 ATS. In contrast, the AFC dominated interconference play in '06, going 40-24 SU (62.5 percent) and 36-27-1 ATS (57 percent).

However, a closer look reveals that much of the NFC's improved performance this season against AFC teams came largely from the weaker teams. The six AFC Playoff teams were a combined 19-5 SU and 15-9 ATS against NFC opponents, with the weakest record in the six belonging to San Diego, which went 2-2 SU and ATS against teams from the NFC North. The other five AFC playoff teams all went either 4-0 or 3-1 against NFC opposition.

The six NFC Playoff teams were a combined 15-9 SU and 11-11-2 ATS in their games against AFC teams, with Green Bay faring the best at 4-0 SU and ATS. For those of you who are already "looking ahead," the current Super Bowl pointspread has the AFC at minus-11 over the NFC. The line had been as high as minus-14, before New England had a couple of "close encounters of the ATS variety," in Weeks 12 and 13.

Seven of this season's playoff teams lost their final regular season game but only Tampa Bay is on a losing streak of more than one game, having lost their final two games. Of the other five teams, only Green Bay enters after a single win, while the other four teams have multiple game win streaks entering the post season - New England (16), San Diego (six), Washington (four) and Tennessee (three).

The two Saturday games are Washington at Seattle (Seattle minus-3 or 3 1/2) and Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (Jags are minus-2 1/2). On Sunday, it's the NY Giants at Tampa Bay (TB minus-3) and Tennessee at San Diego (SD minus-10). Quite amazingly, as of Friday morning, all four of the games being played this weekend have posted totals of 39 1/2! The Jags/Steelers game is a rematch of a Week 15 game played in Pittsburgh and won by Jacksonville, 29-22. The Chargers beat the Titans in Tennessee, 23-17, in overtime during Week 14.

As mentioned earlier, the NFL changed its playoff format to include 12 teams in 1990. There are now three Wild Card teams from each conference (up from two), which expanded the number of postseason games from nine to 11. Prior to this season, there had been 187 postseason games played under this format, which provides a workable database.

However, I don't have a database, so I've called on long-time friend, Las Vegas handicapper Andy Iskoe for some help. Each week, I'll provide (thanks to Andy!), the pointspread histories of first the Wild Card round, then the Divisional Playoffs and finally the Conference Championships.

Here it is, short and sweet, for the Wild Card round. Since 1990, teams which win the game have gone an impressive 56-9-3 ATS, or 86.2 percent!. Home teams are 47-21 SU and 35-30-3 ATS, with favorites (home or away), going 45-23 SU and 33-32-3 ATS. The average score of a Wild Card game has been 27.8-to 15.3, with 29 games going 'over' and 38 games going 'under' (one push).

[GoBigorGoHome]

i must say billy, i tend to stay away from NFL but with these systems you have i cant help but lay on TB and SD today as they fit those systems to the "T"

[SuperSkins]

Thanks for the info, bb. Great stuff.

[Billy Barooooooo]

In the Wild Card round, underdogs or favorites of -7.5 or less are 10-31-2 ATS provided they beat the pointspread by nine points or more in their regular season finale. This trend is on a 5-25-2 ATS run including a horrendous 0-12-2 ATS provided its opponent checks in off a straight up loss.

Wild Card games are 2-13 O/U since 2000 when a team is playing off a BIG win (17 or more points) in their final regular season game.

Go Big I know its not over yet but this stat was pointing to Tenn. The line opened at 7 and SD won by 17.

[JB]

Okay figured I would get it started

Play against the highest scoring team the prior week of playoffs!

So Playoff Week One

NO PLAY

So Playoff Week Two

Play Against Seattle

[Billy Barooooooo]

So Playoff Week Two

Play Against Seattle

Yes

[Billy Barooooooo]

since 1990 playoff teams that are 0-4 ats their last 4 games are 8-2 ats in their next game!
Dallas -7.5.


It is also a good idea to go against a team that went 4-0 ats in their last post season. Last week it was anti Pittsburgh. If you got in early you won.

This week go against the Colts! San Diego + 8.5

since 1990 Playoff teams that scored the most points in each round are 16-31 ats in their next playoff game. Seattle scored the most points last round so...
Green Bay -8

[Billy Barooooooo]

NFL ATS Records
Team ATS % W/L O/U For Agst. Marg.
1 Green Bay
12-3-1 78.1 13-3-0 12-4-0 27.2 18.2 9.0
2 Cleveland
12-4-0 75.0 10-6-0 9-6-1 25.1 23.9 1.2
3 Jacksonville
11-5-0 68.8 11-5-0 11-4-1 25.7 19.0 6.7
4 San Diego
11-5-0 68.8 11-5-0 8-6-2 25.8 17.8 8.0
5 New England
10-6-0 62.5 16-0-0 11-5-0 36.8 17.1 19.7
6 N.Y. Giants
10-6-0 62.5 10-6-0 8-8-0 23.3 21.9 1.4
7 Buffalo
9-6-1 59.4 7-9-0 7-9-0 15.8 22.1 -6.4
8 Dallas
9-7-0 56.2 13-3-0 10-6-0 28.4 20.3 8.1
9 Indianapolis
9-7-0 56.2 13-3-0 7-9-0 28.1 16.4 11.8
10 Seattle
9-7-0 56.2 10-6-0 7-9-0 24.6 18.2 6.4
11 Tampa Bay
9-7-0 56.2 9-7-0 9-7-0 20.9 16.9 4.0
12 Arizona
9-7-0 56.2 8-8-0 11-5-0 25.2 24.9 0.3
13 Pittsburgh
8-8-0 50.0 10-6-0 8-8-0 24.6 16.8 7.8
14 Tennessee
8-8-0 50.0 10-6-0 5-10-1 18.8 18.6 0.2
15 Washington
7-7-2 50.0 9-7-0 7-9-0 20.9 19.4 1.5