NFL Playoffs - Round 1 ` DISCUSSION THREAD

**yomonte** · 12-31-2007, 11:21 AM

Liking the under in NY/TB game

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 12-31-2007, 02:49 PM

Liking Washington +4, Jax -1 and TB -2.5.

The Skins simply because of Seattle's easy ride this year. Check out their schedule...it's a joke. Playing in the NFC West, they got to play their 3 ****ty division rivals twice each. Seattle plays well at home? OK, maybe...but look who they have played their past 7 home games...Bal, Ari, Chi, SF, STL, NO (loss) & Cin. What a pack of losers. Washington peaking at the right time...plays in a tough division with not too many easy games, is coming off 2 great road wins in Min & NYG and I believe they are the better team, and at a neutral site, should probably be favoured by 4. Give Seattle a FG for home field, and there's value in getting 4 points here, IMO. Washington's 9-7 was a hell of a lot more hard-fought than Seattle's 10-6.

Jags are the 3rd best team in the NFL, and just happen play in the best division in the NFL. Another team on a roll coming into the playoffs, who have already dominated this Steeler team once at Heinz field. Confidence should be with the visitors in this one, as I guarantee Pittsburgh didn't want to see Jax again. Steelers a banged up team, and have sputtered coming into the playoffs. Books are telling you who is going to win giving the road wildcard team the fav line.

Backing the Bucs at home. Simple...Bucs defence against Eli. That 2nd ranked defence will give Eli problems all day, IMO. Home field (where TB went 6-2), and Jeff Garcia outplaying Eli should be the difference in this one. Eli played well against NE, but I expect a playoff choke, and Garcia is smart and more experienced and is less likely to make the big mistake. Garcia threw only 4 picks (compared to Eli’s 20) and has the better scrambling ability. Surprised to see TB a FG fav after NY’s great game in prime-time, but the books could be telling us something with that as well....asking for NY action.

Would be leaning towards Tenn +10 as well....but my least favourite matchup of the 4 for sure...

Can't wait!

GL everyone!

**CuseFan10** · 12-31-2007, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

I believe they are the better team, and at a neutral site, should probably be favoured by 4. Give Seattle a FG for home field, and there's value in getting 4 points here, IMO.

I'm not sure how you figure Washington would be a 4 point fave at a neutral site against Seattle, JML? I know it's just your personal opinion, which I respect, but to say the value is there after subtracting a field goal for Seattle's home field advantage from a made up number pulled out of thin air, IMHO is a stretch. I personally would say the game would be at best a neutral site pick'em or Seattle -1. I would give Seattle more than 3 points for the home field advantage (maybe 4) since it's the loudest stadium in the league and they rarely lose there and haven't lost a home playoff game a few years (if not longer... And yes I know the Cowboys and Romo, but it still happened and Seattle won).

So, I guess I'm saying I think the line is pretty spot on, and if anything, I think the value is with Seattle at home with a ravenous crowd against a back-up QB.

:thumbs:

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 12-31-2007, 04:57 PM

Yeah...you're right, Cuse, ..I was just rambling my initial thoughts...lol...neutral site it's proabably a pick'em or Sea -1. I was just saying what I think it should be. I think the Skins are 4 points better, IMO, right now. I think they are a better team, as Seattle hasn't proved anything to me with those home wins over a collection of tomato cans. They really haven't impressed me all year. Washington momentum, a feeling of destiny, and Seattle's weak, weak schedule make me feel that way about Wash plus the 4. I wasn't trying to say the books would make it 4 points. And although Collins is a backup, he's played a hell of a lot better than the starter ever did, and I feel confident with him in there, as he does not seem mistake or turnover prone as of yet. Which is important in the playoffs.

Should be a good game!
I see a close game, and I'm taking the points.

**Meestermike** · 12-31-2007, 06:46 PM

Update

Washington vs Seattle

SIDE
+5 +102 / -5 -110 Opener 12/30/2007 7:41PM
+5 -106 / -5 -102 12/30/2007 7:45PM
+5 -110 / -5 +102 12/30/2007 7:56PM
+5 -114 / -5 +106 12/30/2007 8:04PM
+5 -118 / -5 +110 12/30/2007 8:05PM
+5 -114 / -5 +106 12/30/2007 8:10PM
+5 -118 / -5 +110 12/30/2007 8:13PM
+5 -120 / -5 +112 12/30/2007 8:16PM
+4 -112 / -4 +104 12/30/2007 8:22PM
+4 -108 / -4 EVEN 12/30/2007 8:24PM
+4 -110 / -4 +102 12/30/2007 8:30PM
+4 -114 / -4 +106 12/30/2007 9:14PM
+4 -110 / -4 +102 12/30/2007 10:24PM
+4 -112 / -4 +104 12/31/2007 12:35AM
+4 -110 / -4 +102 12/31/2007 1:52AM
+4 -111 / -4 +103 12/31/2007 10:56AM
+4 -114 / -4 +106 12/31/2007 12:23PM
+3.5 -106 / -3.5 -102 12/31/2007 2:18PM
+3.5 -108 / -3.5 EVEN 01/02/2008 9:40AM
+3.5 -109 / -3.5 +101 01/02/2008 5:21PM
+3.5 -111 / -3.5 +103 01/02/2008 5:23PM
+3.5 -112 / -3.5 +104 01/02/2008 5:25PM
+3.5 -113 / -3.5 +105 01/02/2008 7:57PM

MONEY LINE
+185 / -200 Opener 12/31/2007 8:20AM
+178 / -191 12/31/2007 12:23PM
+182 / -197 12/31/2007 2:18PM
+178 / -191 12/31/2007 6:06PM
+174 / -184 01/02/2008 5:24PM
+170 / -180 01/02/2008 6:03PM
+165 / -175 01/02/2008 6:04PM

TOTAL
o40 -108 /u40 -102 Opener 12/30/2007 8:56PM
o40 -102 / u40 -108 12/30/2007 9:20PM
o40 -105 / u40 -105 01/01/2008 9:25PM
o40 EVEN / u40 -110 01/02/2008 8:43AM
o40 -106 / u40 -104 01/02/2008 5:34PM
o40 -112 / u40 +102 01/02/2008 5:46PM
o40 -118 / u40 +108 01/02/2008 7:17PM
o40.5 -112 / u40.5 +102 01/02/2008 9:03PM
o40.5 -109 / u40.5 -101 01/02/2008 11:51PM
o40.5 -106 / u40.5 -104 01/02/2008 11:54PM
o40.5 -108 / u40.5 -102 01/02/2008 11:56PM

Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh

SIDE
+1 -112 / -1 +104 Opener 12/30/2007 7:42PM
+1 -116 / -1 +108 12/30/2007 7:44PM
+1 -120 / -1 +112 12/30/2007 7:45PM
+1 -116 / -1 +108 12/30/2007 7:51PM
+1 -114 / -1 +106 12/30/2007 7:54PM
+1 -118 / -1 +110 12/30/2007 7:56PM
+1 -122 / -1 +114 12/30/2007 8:01PM
+1 -126 / -1 +118 12/30/2007 8:04PM
+1 -122 / -1 +114 12/30/2007 8:13PM
-1 -112 / +1 +104 12/30/2007 8:22PM
-1 -108 / +1 EVEN 12/30/2007 8:27PM
-1 -109 / +1 +101 12/31/2007 12:36AM
-1 -113 / +1 +105 12/31/2007 12:11PM
-1 -117 / +1 +109 12/31/2007 12:13PM
-1 -118 / +1 +110 12/31/2007 12:33PM
-1 -119 / +1 +111 01/01/2008 4:39PM
-1 -120 / +1 +112 01/02/2008 3:02PM
-1 -121 / +1 +113 01/02/2008 5:27PM
-1 -122 / +1 +114 01/02/2008 5:32PM
-2.5 -107 / +2.5 -101 01/02/2008 9:05PM

MONEY LINE
-115 / +105 Opener 12/31/2007 8:21AM
-120 / +110 12/31/2007 12:11PM
-118 / +108 12/31/2007 12:13PM
-123 / +113 12/31/2007 12:13PM
-125 / +115 12/31/2007 12:34PM
-124 / +114 12/31/2007 6:19PM
-125 / +115 01/01/2008 9:10PM
-126 / +116 01/02/2008 5:18PM
-128 / +118 01/02/2008 5:33PM
-130 / +120 01/02/2008 10:22PM

TOTAL
o37.5 EVEN /u37.5 -110 Opener 12/30/2007 7:42PM
o37.5 +106 / u37.5 -116 12/30/2007 7:44PM
o37.5 EVEN / u37.5 -110 12/30/2007 7:50PM
o37.5 -106 / u37.5 -104 12/30/2007 7:51PM
o37.5 EVEN / u37.5 -110 12/30/2007 9:26PM
o37.5 -106 / u37.5 -104 12/30/2007 9:32PM
o37.5 -112 / u37.5 +102 12/30/2007 11:59PM
o38 -111 / u38 +101 12/31/2007 11:44AM
o38 -117 / u38 +107 12/31/2007 11:46AM
o38 -114 / u38 +104 12/31/2007 11:53AM
o38 -120 / u38 +110 12/31/2007 11:54AM
o38.5 -113 / u38.5 +103 12/31/2007 6:18PM
o39.5 -104 / u39.5 -106 01/01/2008 10:56AM
o39.5 -105 / u39.5 -105 01/01/2008 4:40PM
o39.5 -108 / u39.5 -102 01/02/2008 3:02PM

New York G vs Tampa Bay

SIDE
+1 +112 / -1 -120 Opener 12/30/2007 7:42PM
+1 +116 / -1 -124 12/30/2007 7:45PM
+1 +120 / -1 -128 12/30/2007 7:45PM
+1 +124 / -1 -132 12/30/2007 7:48PM
+1 +128 / -1 -136 12/30/2007 8:01PM
+1 +132 / -1 -140 12/30/2007 8:04PM
+1 +136 / -1 -144 12/30/2007 8:05PM
+1 +132 / -1 -140 12/30/2007 8:07PM
+3 -110 / -3 +102 12/30/2007 8:28PM
+3 -114 / -3 +106 12/30/2007 8:33PM
+3 -118 / -3 +110 12/30/2007 8:34PM
+3 -115 / -3 +107 12/30/2007 11:19PM
+3 -111 / -3 +103 12/30/2007 11:27PM
+3 -110 / -3 +102 12/30/2007 11:33PM
+3 -112 / -3 +104 12/31/2007 1:46AM
+3 -114 / -3 +106 12/31/2007 7:27AM
+3 -115 / -3 +107 12/31/2007 12:33PM
+3 -119 / -3 +111 12/31/2007 5:36PM
+3 -122 / -3 +114 12/31/2007 5:37PM
+3 -119 / -3 +111 12/31/2007 6:07PM
+3 -118 / -3 +110 12/31/2007 6:08PM
+3 -119 / -3 +111 01/01/2008 11:04PM
+3 -118 / -3 +110 01/02/2008 9:41AM
+3 -117 / -3 +109 01/02/2008 11:55PM
+3 -116 / -3 +108 01/03/2008 12:16AM

MONEY LINE
+130 / -140 Opener 12/31/2007 8:21AM
+134 / -144 12/31/2007 8:22AM
+130 / -140 12/31/2007 6:08PM

TOTAL
o39.5 -105 /u39.5 -105 Opener 12/30/2007 7:42PM
o39.5 -102 / u39.5 -108 12/31/2007 11:56PM

Tennessee vs San Diego

SIDE
+6 -104 / -6 -104 Opener 12/30/2007 11:29PM
+9 -111 / -9 +103 12/31/2007 10:53AM
+9 -107 / -9 -101 12/31/2007 1:45PM
+9 -103 / -9 -105 12/31/2007 1:48PM
+9 -107 / -9 -101 12/31/2007 9:12PM
+9 -105 / -9 -103 01/01/2008 7:17PM
+9.5 -108 / -9.5 EVEN 01/01/2008 7:21PM
+9.5 -110 / -9.5 +102 01/01/2008 8:12PM
+9.5 -114 / -9.5 +106 01/01/2008 9:12PM
+9.5 -110 / -9.5 +102 01/02/2008 1:49AM
+9.5 -106 / -9.5 -102 01/02/2008 1:40PM
+9.5 -102 / -9.5 -106 01/02/2008 8:05PM

MONEY LINE
+360 / -400 Opener 12/31/2007 10:56AM
+380 / -420 12/31/2007 1:45PM
+420 / -460 12/31/2007 2:16PM
+410 / -450 12/31/2007 2:17PM
+399 / -439 12/31/2007 3:07PM
+410 / -450 12/31/2007 6:06PM
+394 / -434 12/31/2007 6:10PM
+374 / -414 12/31/2007 9:12PM
+360 / -400 01/01/2008 9:14PM
+380 / -420 01/02/2008 1:49AM
+400 / -440 01/02/2008 12:58PM
+410 / -450 01/02/2008 5:33PM
+420 / -460 01/02/2008 9:08PM

TOTAL
o41 -105 /u41 -105 Opener 12/31/2007 10:55AM
o41 +101 / u41 -111 12/31/2007 12:24PM
o41 +107 / u41 -117 12/31/2007 9:12PM
o40.5 +102 / u40.5 -112 01/01/2008 9:12PM
o40.5 +105 / u40.5 -115 01/02/2008 11:15AM
o40 +104 / u40 -114 01/02/2008 3:49PM

**Stifler's Mom** · 01-04-2008, 03:07 PM

Backing Washington means backing Todd Collins in the playoffs.

Thanks, but no thanks.

There's a reason he's a career back up for over 10 years.

Seattle wins and covers I think....

TB is a no brainer though, IMHO

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 01-04-2008, 03:14 PM

What has Todd Collins done but look great?

He is one of the reasons I AM backing the Skins. He looks to be exactly what that team needed, and I don't think a playoff game will change anything. He's no rookie, and yeah he's mainly a career backup, but I think he doesn't need to win the game by himself...he just needs to get the ball to the playmakers without making mistakes. Exactly what he's been doing so far this year. Also prefer Portis over Alexander, Skins receivers, Skins special teams, and the defence. Everything except home field points to the Skins, especially momentum...and I think Seattle home field mystique hasn't even been tested this year AT ALL, so that's up in the air too.

Seattle the most over-rated team in the NFL left playing right now, IMO....even more than the Giants....what a joke of a schedule Holmgren has had to navigate through....has to be the easiest this year by far, and maybe in a few years....and now they're laying 4 points to one of the hottest teams in the league? No way...

TB :thumbs:

**NittanyLions94** · 01-04-2008, 03:22 PM

[taking off homer glasses]

Does it scare anyone else that the whole world is all over JAX as a road fav in the playoffs? I haven't heard many people, even in Pittsburgh, giving the Steelers a shot in hell. It is Garrard's first ever playoff game, going in to a hostile place, and people think JAX has already won. Any thoughts there?

Some QBs I will NOT be backing this playoff season:

Vince Young
Phillys Rivers
Elise Manning

[putting back on homer glasses]

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 01-04-2008, 03:35 PM

Yeah, Nitt...everyone seems to love the Jags in this one...big scary. It is probably now my least favourite play of the 4 because of that...

GL Nitt! :thumbs:

**PhillyFan3** · 01-04-2008, 03:55 PM

hate to be going against you JML but...

I dont think its Seattle's fault they had a weak schedule, but you have to look at what this team does at home and its scary good, and its been going for some years now while Hasselbeck has running the show, the guy wins at home, and he has weapons at reciever and he has a tough offensive line, and the Seahawks have a defense that can get pressure on the QB and they also have a very good pass D....not only that but the home field there is an insane atomsphere, their fans are out of their minds.... and the noise and d forced the most false starts for road teams and to add to that Washington was up at the top of the league in false start penalties, and they are depending on a guy that still has splinters in his ass from the last 10 years to go to Seattle and win there.....I think having a dependable qb who has playoff success is very important, and Gibbs also hasnt been the same coach, poor play calling, poor clock mgmt and everything all year long, and I think Wash might have shot their load just trying to make the playoffs while Seattle has had the chance to get healthy and prepare to unload at home...27-16 Seahawks is what I am thinking.....just my 2 cents, I am sure everyone is going to have some different opinions on every game, but Seattle is my top play of the week....

Anyone have any thoughts on the totals for the week as well, TB-NYG at 40, the under looks nice there, just not too sure with the other totals yet though

**mungar** · 01-04-2008, 04:18 PM

The under in the Seattle game looks very nice. It's going to be a rain and wind storm tomorrow, so that may keep the number down.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 01-04-2008, 04:25 PM

No problem, PF3! :cheers:

Believe me, I understand the theory. Seattle good at home, we've all had that grilled into us many times. I just don't see how beating up on jokes like SF, STL & Baltimore proves that fact THIS YEAR. Fact is, they haven't been tested at all this year, so IMO nobody knows for sure until they play a quality opponent. We get that this week. Last year? They were a pedestrian 5-3 at home (4-3 ATS), including losses to the 7-9 Niners and the 6-10 Vikings. Last years playoffs, Seattle did not perform overly well at home sqeeking out a close win (ATS loss) against Dallas thanks to Tony Romo. The home field theory is much more of an easy thing to say when discussing Seattle or KC, and I think it's over-rated. Most stadiums are insane. You don't think it was loud and a tough atmosphere in Washington's must-win situations playing AT Minnesota and NYG?? It was just as tough...and against teams just as good if not better than Seattle, IMO. They won outright as big 6 point road dogs, and easily so...

Basically, I just don't think this Seattle team has been tested enough this year, especially on defence, to label them an elite team. I could be wrong. But if they do get by Washington, I'll be fading them bigtime at Lambeau next week! lol

GL PF! :thumbs:

**daft_picks** · 01-04-2008, 04:26 PM

I agree that the atmosphere at Seattle will make it tough for the Skins, I don't see how backing such an impressive Jags team on the road is harder than backing the Skins. Skins on a roll lately too, momentum is key for the playoffs, but Jags are rolling even harder IMO. I have the Skins +10.5 in a teaser, I may play Seattle -3 just because of the home atmosphere. The totals are tricky this week, all about at the same mark (39-40), I like the unders though in all the games but the Jags.

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 01-04-2008, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by mungar

The under in the Seattle game looks very nice. It's going to be a rain and wind storm tomorrow, so that may keep the number down.

Rain in Seattle. No way! lol.

Seriously though.....rain, and high winds....usually means a VERY important run game?

• Who's been the better running team this year, and has their prime running back playing his best ball of the year? Portis & the Skins.

• What team's prime RB has been missing in action all year? Alexander & the Hawks.

• Who has the better rush defence? Skins, ranked 4th in the NFL.

:beer2:

NFL Playoffs - Round 1 ` DISCUSSION THREAD

NFL Playoffs - Round 1 ` DISCUSSION THREAD

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