Daft picks Week XVI

[daft_picks]

Wasn't able to post thursday due to travel, hit the easy over total made no play on side, congrats to all who had a profitable Thursday.

Tonight see Dallas eager and ready to bounce back hard against a crappy Carolina team. They had their moral victory last week against the Seahags (:puke:) and Dallas got shown up and shut up by the Eagles, so I'm thinking Dallas gets the revenge while Carolina get let down. Plus I'm tailin a lot of you mofos.

Dallas -10.5 over Carolina (-105) 1.05 to win 1 unit (LOSS -1.05)
Carolina team UNDER 16.5 (-115) 1.15 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)
Dal/Car UNDER 42 1.1 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)

PROPS
What will happen first for Carolina QBs, TD or INT? Throw an interception (-130) 1.3 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)
Who will score first in the game? Dallas (-185) 1.85 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)
Which half will have more points scored? 2nd half + OT -.5 pnts (-105) .525 to win .5 units (LOSS -.525)
Player to score first TD of game:
Tony Romo (+2000) .25 to win 5 units (LOSS -.25)
Marion Barber (+400) .25 to win 1 unit (LOSS -.25)

That'll do it for me, should be back later to post sunday plays, enjoy the game everybody and happy holidays!!

[daft_picks]

Have some free time, figured I'd post some of my Sunday plays while I had the chance (editing as things go along):

2 weeks left in the NFL, going to try and keep doing what works best, lots of picking the winners spreads 7 or under. Some teams playing for the post season, many playing for the end of the season. Let's see what happens:

Cleveland -3 over Cincinnati (+110) 2 to win 2.2 units (LOSS -2)

See some people divided on this play, and the juice confuses me, but I have to think that the Brownies will get this one taken care of and then I'm just picking the winner. And truthfully I would rather the Bungles win because of the Titans playoff implications, so as long as the Brownies don't win by 1-3 points I'll be happy.
Otherwise :toss:

Jax -13 over Oakland 2.2 to win 2 units (WIN +2)

The Jags at home should roll over Oakland, spread is high but feel confident about it as I see many others eating this chalk. I think Jacksonville is a great team this year, even made a small play on them to win the Super Bowl. Putting them in some teasers this week as well.

Vikings -6.5 over Skins (-105) 2.1 to win 2 units (LOSS -2.1)

Sticking to the pick a winner under 7, have to go with the Vikings at home playing for the playoffs. Minnesota has won their last 5 games by 7 points or more, 3 at home and 2 on the road. Skins have shown some heart lately but I think they come out a little flat here.

Saints -3.5 over Eagles (+105) 1.5 to win 1.575 units (LOSS -1.5)

Picked the winner last week with the Saints, gonna do it again this week and not over think it. Saints at home with a helluva lot to play for, I think they get it done.

Only done totals so far for noon games, might try some others out later:

Colts/Texans UNDER 45 1.65 to win 1.5 units (LOSS -1.65)
Texans team UNDER 20 (-115) 1.15 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)

Colts will be resting starters, Texans been hot lately but really just do not play that well on the road. See a relatively low scoring game with the colts getting it done again and their D holding the Texans in check.

Det/KC OVER 43.5 1.1 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)
I think some serious points could get put up on the board this game. Hoping the offenses bust out against the crappy defenses.

GB/Chi OVER 33 1.1 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)

Total is too low not to play, have a feeling some garbage TD's get scored in this one.




Bills ML over Giants (+120) 1.25 to win 1.5 units - Giants suck I hope they don't make the playoffs go Bills! (LOSS -1.25)
Chiefs ML over Detroit (+190) 1 to win 1.9 units - I'll take a shot a team to beat Detroit at about 2:1 any day the way they been playing lately. (LOSS -1)
Bengals ML over Browns (+125) 1 to win 1.25 units - Kind of buying back Browns play after I thought about it, both sides +$$ though, please no 1-3 point Browns win :cross: (WIN +1.25)


Lots of teasers this week:

2 team 6 pnt Teaser
Green Bay Packers/Chicago Bears - total Over 27 (-110)
Green Bay Packers - spread -3 (-110)
1.65 to win 1.5 units (LOSS -1.65)

4 Team 6.5 pnt Teaser
Dallas Cowboys - spread -4 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - spread +½ (-110)
Boise State - spread -4 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs/Detroit Lions - total Over 37 (-110)
1 to win 2.5 units (LOSS -1)

3 Team 7 pnt Teaser
Tennessee Titans - spread -1½ (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars - spread -6 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals - spread -3 (-110) PUSH
2.5 to win 3.75 units (WIN +1.925)

stupid longshot 7 Team 7 pnt
Tennessee Titans - spread -1 (-110)
Green Bay Packers - spread -2 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings - spread +½ (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars - spread -6 (-110)
Houston Texans/Indianapolis Colts - total Under 52 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals - spread -3 (-110)
New York Jets/Tennessee Titans - total Over 29½ (-110)
.75 to win 6 units (LOSS -.75)

AND 2 parlays

Colts -7 (-105) + Colts/Texans UNDER 45
.55 to win 1.5 units (LOSS -.55)

Kansas City Chiefs - moneyline (+190)
Kansas City Chiefs/Detroit Lions - total Over 43½ (-110)
Indianapolis Colts - moneyline (-300)
Minnesota Vikings - moneyline (-260)
Arizona Cardinals - moneyline (-475)
.5 to win 5.678 units (LOSS -.5)


Looking back, that is a lot and probably too many plays. But still...good luck to all this weekend and happy holidays! :smclap:

[daft_picks]

Dal/Car UNDER 21 2nd half (-120) .6 to win .5 units (WIN +.5)

[daft_picks]

Carolina kept it close tonight, but most things went as planned, +2.425 units on the night :thumbs:

Congrats to all on Carolina and the under, let's win big tomorrow! :beerbang:

[manmythlegend]

gl daft :thumbs:

[daft_picks]

Quick adds:

NO/Phi OVER 47 1.1 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)
Chi +9 vs. GB (-125) 1.25 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)
Jacksonville team OVER 26 points (-115) 1.725 to win 1.5 units (WIN +1.5)

Parlay:
NO -3.5 + NO/PHI OVER 47 + Jax team total OVER 26
.5 to win 3.18 units (LOSS -.5)

[daft_picks]

Chi +6 2nd half (-115) .8525 to win .75 units (WIN +.75)
Cin/Cle UNDER 20 2nd half .55 to win .5 units (WIN +.5)

[daft_picks]

NYG/Buf UNDER 17 2nd half (-120) .6 to win .5 units (LOSS -.6)
PHI +3 over NO 2nd half .55 to win .5 units (WIN +.5)

PARLAY:
Colts/Texans UNDER 21.5 2nd half (-140) + NYG/Buf UNDER 17 2nd half (-120)
.35 to win .75 units (LOSS -.35)

[daft_picks]

Titans/Jets UNDER 37 1.1 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)

2 team 6.5 pnt teaser

NE -16 over Miami
NE/Mia UNDER 52
1.2 to win 1 unit (WIN +1)

3 team 6.5 pnt teaser
Seattle -6
NE/Mia UNDER 52
Titans/NYJ UNDER 43.5
1.25 to win 2 units (WIN +2)

[daft_picks]

I really hope I lose this 2nd half play...

Jets ML 2nd half (+200) .75 to win 1.5 units (LOSS!! -.75)

Titans must tighten up. :cross:

[daft_picks]

Arz/Atl UNDER 23 2nd half .55 to win .5 units (WIN +.5)
Tampa -1 over SF 2nd half (-105) .525 to win .5 units (LOSS -.525)
Tampa/SF UNDER 18 2nd half (-120) .6 to win .5 units (LOSS -.6)

[daft_picks]

Interesting day so far, really wish Tampa had come through but that was just dumb play on my part. So far for the day:

Sides 1-2 -1.5 units
Totals (including team) 7-1 +5.85 units :thumbs:
ML 1-2 -1 unit
Teasers 3-3 +1.525 units
Parlays 0-3 -1.55 units
Halves 4-5 -.575 units

+2.75 units for the day so far

Pending Minn -6.5

also adding:

Minn/Wash OVER 40.5 2.2 to win 2 units (WIN +2)
Minn/Wash OVER 47.5 (+220) .5 to win 1.1 units (WIN +1.1)

PROPS
Team to use first Time out WASH (-130) .65 to win .5 units (WIN +.5)
Team to have first penalty called on them WASH (-120) .6 to win .5 units (WIN +.5)
Portis +28.5 yards vs. Peterson (-135) .675 to win .5 units (WIN +.5)

Going semi-big on last game of the night, hope everyone is having as great a holiday season as I...don't even really give a **** if I lose tonight cause the Titans won/Browns lost and Christmas is 2 days away!

Peace and love ya'll :cheery:

[daft_picks]

Wow I can't believe how flat Minnesota has come out this game, I haven't really watched much of it but I'm kicking myself for giving them such a benefit of the doubt. At least my props are looking good.

Wash +4 2nd Half .55 to win .5 units (LOSS -.55)
Wash/Minn UNDER 18.5 2nd half (-120) .6 to win .5 units (LOSS -.6)

[daft_picks]

Minny **** the bed on that one, glad I added those plays, somehow squeaked out a little $.

Total for Sunday:

Sides 1-3 -3.6 units
Totals (including team/alternate totals) 9-1 +8.95 units :thumbs:
ML 1-2 -1 unit
Teasers 3-3 +1.525 units
Parlays 0-3 -1.55 units
Halves 4-7 -1.725 units
Props 3-0 +1.5 units

Total +5.1 units :sm:

So basically I killed the totals today while the sides killed me and lost my usual stupid units on parlays and halves. Will I ever learn? ....... probably not.



HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO EVERYONE!!