Daft Picks...Week 13

[daft_picks]

Thursday night, Dallas @ GB. Most thoughts in discussion thread, think this total goes over the high posted 52 with how these teams have been scoring and would think that Dallas covers but can't say for certain just yet cause this could be a close win. Still see GB putting up at least 24 points so that if Dallas were to cover total would have to go over. So for now:

1.05 units to win 1 unit Dallas/GB over 52

Parlay Dallas -7 and over 52
.55 units to win 1.5 units

Waiting for some opinions on the total before I put more on it, will more than likely play a bit more on Dallas too.

I've only locked in two at this point for the weekend, the aforementioned Buffalo play because I see them bouncing back finally this week against a distracted and not-so-good Redskins team.

Also had to play Indy -7 against the Jags @ even money, Jags have been playing excellent football and wracking up points recently except for a loss to the Saints 40-21 and then a total flop against Indy 29-7. And that was in Jacksonville. Indy's injuries are blown out of proportion, I feel the Jags play better but won't be able to stay within a touchdown of the Colts just as they are getting back in the swing of things.

2.2 units to win 2 units Buffalo +5.5 Washington
2 units to win 2 units Indy -7 Jacksonville

Also strong lean on Cleveland over Arizona at a pick (they lost to the 49ers!), slight lean towards SD -6 over KC and NO -3 over TB. Probably play those after results of Thursday night.


Good luck to everybody this week let me know what you think, feedback much appreciated from you cappers out there. :thumbs:

[daft_picks]

After consideration (and to see so many people on it) I'm adding 2 units on Dallas tonight. Also a couple of props and a silly teaser. Still kicking around adding some more on the over as I see the line is dropping so I might add some more later who knows...
*EDITED* adding another unit on over, let's cash that and then donate big for the kids!

2.2 to win 2 units Dallas -7 over GB
1.1 to win 1 unit Dallas/GB over 51

1.45 to win .8 units Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of game...YES! (-150)
.75 to win .75 units Donald Lee OVER 4 pass receptions (EVEN)
.25 to win 2.5 units Player to score first TD in game: Donald Lee (+1000)
1 to win .8 unit GB team points OVER 22.5 (-125)

Hopefully I win at least 2 props and either break about even or make some $$!

TEASER
GB/Dallas Over 46
Dallas -1
Colts -1 over Jags
Colts Jags Under 51
San Diego PICK
.5 to win 2.25 units

Good luck everybody! :beerbang:

[daft_picks]

.55 to win .5 units Dal/GB OVER 24.5 2ndH

Fade away please, want to see more scoring though for the kids! Simply insurance :sm:

Over looks good, keep it up Dallas!

[daft_picks]

Solid night of football, glad we rolled our donations for the toy drive over to this game! Also glad I had the right read on this game, I was a little nervous at times but things worked out.

TNF results:
Sides 1-0 +2 units
O/U 1-0 +2 units
Props 2-2 +.6 units
Parlay 1-0 +1.5 units
Half 0-1 -.55 units

Total: +4.55

Take that any day! Congrats to all who backed the over and Dallas, thanks to many of you guys I stayed with my gut and ended up on top. Donation coming soon!

[daft_picks]

Just wanted to post a few more plays and leans for this upcoming weekend and try and get some feedback. Would love to hear some other thoughts.

1.65 to win 1.5 units SD -6 over KC WIN +1.5
Saw this line was rising and I think San Diego has been improving lately while KC has been going in the opposite direction. Feel it's the right play

2.75 to win 2.5 units Browns pick over Arizona Loss -2.75
Again teams headed in two different directions, although it's hard to lay money on the browns. But truthfully I win either way in this situation because a larger part of me wants Arizona to pull it out because of the playoff implications for the Titans. Just have to see what happens.

1.15 to win 1 unit on Miami -1 over NYJ (-115) Loss -1.15
I live in Miami currently and down here we think this is the fins only chance at a win. They've kept it close against some decent teams and want nothing more than at least one W in their record, so me thinks they finally pull it out. Not risking much more than this though on a 0-11 team to win :beer2:

1.65 to win 1.5 units Miami/NYJ UNDER 38 Loss -1.65
Miami been playing hard and defense, both teams with anemic offenses, I feel confident neither teams scores much over 20.

That's it for the main plays, 2 small parlays as well, may add more later pending College football results.

PARLAYS
.58 to win 1.5 units Miami -1 + MIA/NYJ UNDER 38 Loss
.55 to win 1.5 units SD -6 + SD/KC OVER 37.5 Loss Total -1.13

Pending teaser
1.1 to win 1 unit GB +13 / Houston +10 vs. Tenn Win +1

Other plays posted above, possible leans still Denver -3.5 over Oakland and Saints -3.5 over Carolina. A little nervous about those now though.

Good luck to everyone this weekend let's make the man pay :thumbs: :beerbang: :thumbs:

EDIT:

Adding some 1pm gameplays and one longshot teaser.

2.3 to win 2 units Atl/Stl OVER 40 (-115) See lots of points Win +2

1.05 to win 1 units Titans -4 Over Texans (GO TITANS!) Win +1

Forgot to post last night because I was kinda drunk, but added .55 units on Cleveland pick and made a very small .4 to win 1.02 units on Buffalo ML @ +225. Figure they might pull it out. Win +1.02

7 point teaser
Atl/Stl Over 33
Buffalo +13
NYJ/Mia Under 44.5
SD +1
Clev/Ari Over 44.5
Pittsburg Pick
.6 to win 3 units Loss -.6

Good luck everybody, be back for some more 4pm games.

[daft_picks]

Adding a couple for afternoon games, probably won't be around to post:

1.1 to win 1 unit NYG -1 Over Chicago Giants need this win bad me thinks they bounce back WIN +1 (couldn't believe it)
1.05 to win 1 unit Dev/Oak OVER 42 Tailing what seems like a strong total play, figure decent amount of scoring in this game WIN +1

Also one absurdly longshot parlay:
Cleveland -1 (-105)
Denver ML (-200)
Dev/Oak OVER 42 (-105)
NO ML (-245)
NYG -1
Pitt ML (-290)
NE -20 (-105)
.25 to win 9.84 units Loss

and one smaller one
Denver -3.5 Over Oakland
Denver/Oakland OVER 42
.58 to win 1.54 units Loss

Let's get em!

[daft_picks]

Some wins some losses, gonna update the totals later, two small halftime plays for now:

Tampa/NO OVER 21 2nd half + NO -3.5 2nd half .25 to win .75 units Loss

NYG/Chi OVER 20 2nd half + NYG -3 2nd half .25 to win .85 units Loss

Still waiting for a night game play, want to see others thoughts on that. Might the under be a good play again on a sloppy field? Might also have to lean Cincy +7, not sure about that though. Thoughts from anyone?

[daft_picks]

Liking Cincinatti tonight, feel they've gotten things together in a good way lately while Pitt has looked very mediocre, see a close hard-fought game that could go either way so...

2.2 to win 2 units Cin +7 Over Pitt
.5 to win 1.2 units Cinci ML (+240)

Small parlay with total:
.5 to win 1.3 units
Cinci +7 and Cin/Pit UNDER 41

3 props
.5 to win .55 units Ben R. UNDER 19.5 pass completions (+110)
.6 to win .5 units Longest TD of game UNDER 42.5 yds (-120)
.6 to win .6 units Willie Parker UNDER 105.5 rushing yards (EVEN)

Good luck to all! :thumbs:

[daft_picks]

Bengals got owned last night, should have made a play on the under as well but got swayed otherwise. But FOR TONIGHT:

NE -19.5 over Balt 1.05 for 1 units (-105)
NE/Balt UNDER 47.5 (-115) 1.15 for 1 unit

NE -4.5 1rst quarter 1 for .75 units (-135)
NE -7 2nd quarter 1.1 for 1 unit

PROP
Baltimore UNDER 14.5 points .86 for .75 units (-115)

Don't expect Baltimore to muster up much on the offense in some tough weather conditions. Still feel NE gets into the endzone a few times, Baltimore's defense is not what it used to be, there is no denying that. We'll just have to see though.

Good luck all, will update YTD sometime tomorrow :thumbs:

EDIT:
1.2 to win 1 units Baltimore +11 2nd Half
1.25 to win 1 units Under 24 2nd half

Good luck everyone

EDIT #2:
just wanted to total up my sunday and monday plays, didn't do so hot, hoping to bounce back this week!

Sides 3-4 -3.65
Totals 2-2 +.2
Parlays 0-5 -2.46
Teasers 1-1 +.4
Halfs 1-3 -.75
Props 2-2 -.16
ML 0-1 -.5