Week 13 Discussion

[Daws1089]

i decided to go ahead and get this thread going.

GB +6.5 @DAL

to me this line is screaming for gb action. I think if you pick the winner here its dallas. GB is banged up on defense and I like dallas to win at home.

BUFF +5.5 @WASH

Despite how inspired the skins will be playing, i cant help but mention how bad they are. I think buffalo will be able to move the football effectively through the air. Trent edwards is starting and that is a world of a difference. it will be interesting to see if lynch plays.

DET +3.5 @ MINN

I don't have a very good read on this game. This is one of the few games that the lions have a good shot at winning the rest of the way and they need this as their wild card birth is on the line. not to mention the rivalry. I think minny is favored here because of their recent success and detroits recent horrible play. I could see minny with the letdown here after what they accomplished last week.

HOU +3.5 @ TENN

we found out last week that houston isn't a very good team on the road. If haynesworth is out again on defense I won't be on tennessee as i think he makes a world of a difference. Tennessee could get back on track at home this week, but they need more from their running game. i'd lean tennessee.

JAX +7 @ IND

I like the jags here. Still hoping for a division championship, the jags have tons to play for. Indy has been struggling lately with the injuries. I think their defensive injuries will hurt them the most in this one. Jax defense is the type of d that wil lget after manning and could spell out upset.

NYJ +1.5 @ MIA

this line says nyj!!!! but how can miami be favored if they haven't won a game yet? I think this line is set in respect to how miami hung with one of the top teams in the afc on monday and how poor the jets played on thanksgiving. I know the public will probably be on the jets, but i might have to go miami here. beck has done a good job of not throwing any interceptions, but their offense blows. I couldn't trust either teamw ith my money.

SD -5.5 @ KC

KC is bad as i found out last week. Horribly coached too if i might add. Arrowhead is still very hard to win at. If you pick the winner here i have to pick SD. they are cruising right now and i don't think this is a spot where brodie croyle gets a W.

SEA +3 @ PHI

seattle on the road for a 1 pm game? IF feeley starts im all over the birds. Eagles play so much more together when another qb besides mcnugget is in there. feeley involves everyone on offense and all aspects of the team are elevated. I think they got some confidence after last weeks loss to NE. it let them know that they can still play with the best in the league. Time for them to make a run at the wild card too. I also think seattle is pretty bad. they did not deserve to win last week and i cant see back to back road wins.

SF +3 @ CAR

yea SF is bad, but how can carolina be favored over anyone? That team is pathetic. Atleast SF got some confidence with a big offensive game last week and a W. Carolina's defense is really banged up and all of their QBs are worthless. I gotta take SF.

TB +3 @ NO

If garcia is out which i think he will be I gotta take NO. NO offense will score too many pts for TB to keep up without garcia. however, if TB gets the run game going that could be trouble for NO.

CLE +1 @ARIZ

i love cleveland here. arizona favored after last weeks debacle? cleveland is legit and i think their offense will destroy whatever arizona has to offer on defense which isnt much. probly a high scoring game too.

i have to run, but I will add my take on the other games later.

[Underdog88]

LoL I was just about to start this up :thumbs:



I agree with most of your asessments Daws, but I have to disagree with the Jags. IMO the Colts are still the better team by a considerable amount, & I'm pretty sure I'll be laying the td there...

I think people may be making a little too much of the injuries for Indy... The loss of Freeney is considerable, but it's not like he's been the rock of their D. He had 3.5 sacks, & recorded more than 3 tackles in a single game 1x this season. Peterson's absence for Jax is much bigger IMO. There is still the perception that the Colts can't stop the run, & Jax will be able to run all over them. The Colts defense is better than the Jaguars!


Colts- #2 pass defense/ Jags #28 pass D

Colts run D allowing 3.9 ypc/ Jags allowing 4.1 ypc


I think even without Harrison, the Colts have enough options in the pass game to score on Jax with Clark, Wayne, Utecht & Addai out of the backfield. I'm sure much will be said about the Taylor/Jones-Drew tandem at RB, but what about Addai/Keith? They have combined for 1316 this season & 12 touchdowns! Fred & Maurice have combined for 1287 & 9 tds. I think the Colts win this by 10+



I'm very surprised to see the Dolphins favored. How could either side be the right one LoL? I'd have trouble laying anything with the Fins, they don't even have a rb. IMO Thomas Jones should be able to ruin all over them, but I don't forsee myself playing anything there....


I agree completely on Philly, & I think that'll be a play for me. Seahawks winning b2b on the road just doesn't look likely, especially since every game is a must win for Philly...

Minny favored after a su win as a 7 pt dog- generally a let-down situation in the nfl. The Lions should be able to throw all over the Vikings, could be a high scoring game...


I'll pop back with some more thoughts :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

The matchups these last 2 weeks have not really made me too excited.

Early thoughts....I agree with your Detroit/Minny assesments....and was ready to make a play on the Lions....but have decided to make it a no-play....Lions on the road, and the Vikings getting AP back rolling without him, and returning home.....no ready to put my money in that situation.

And I was surprised to see your thoughts on Indy, UD....I thought I was going to be the only one on this site backing them this week, as the Jags might be a sexy upset pick the way they have been playing. Indy is a 7 point fav for a reason...and I think them AND Dallas will cover the TD numbers...and the books are begging you to play the underdog in both of those games. I mean, if they wanted you to play the favs there, all they had to do was lay down 4.5/5 in each game...and they would have got it...but instead, they have both teams laying a TD, and money coming in on the road dogs. Pick a winner in both, and I pick the anti-public home favs by a TD.

Might be an ugly card for me this week....as I will likely be back on the Pats this week on Monday Night. Baltimore got lucky to score some points late in the Cleveland game....but really couldn't move the ball at all in the first half against a horrible Cleveland defence, and the Pats might just bounce back with another romp this week.

Looking at backing the Bills again after staying away for a few weeks...Edwards gets the start which might bring new life, and this seemed like it should have been a FG line BEFORE all the sadness Washington has to go through this week and the turmoil losing a player like that. Hate to cap that way, but I'm going to be taking the points in Washington with the Bills. Hard to get a good week of practice I would assume with so much emotion in the room.

Looks like the 3 superstar teams and the Bills for me this week. That would suck bad. Insanely ugly. lol.
We'll see....

[Underdog88]

I agree with everything you posted JML, save the Pats play. 20.5 pts is too much for me not to play on the Ravens. I'm short on time, but will have some reasons why later....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah...20.5 is too much to lay with anyone...and I think the most I've layed with the Pats this year is 14, and I haven't played it for sure yet...but with Belichek coming off their first close game....on a Monday night....against the horrible offense of the Ravens....it seems like a 3 TD win to me. Likely a no-play when it comes down to it though....but a 44-13 type game wouldn't surprise me.

[navy_blue99]

Living in Tampa Bay, i know a lot about the Bucs. If Garcia was 100%, i think they win that game. But he almost definitely won't be. In fact, word down here is McCown is taking all the reps in practice. I don't know much about McCown other than he looked good in preseason and he can't be any worse than Bruce Gradkowski, who should be a backup on an Arena League team. But without Garcia, you have to like New Orleans. Only wild card is Earnest Graham has been running really well.

Other games that caught my eye:
Minn -3.5: Like the Vikings here. Detroit is in a tailspin, and now are not only struggling to stop the pass, but are getting weaker against the run. You don't want to be weak against the run when you play in Minnesota. Vikings win by at least 7.


Dallas -7: Charles Woodson being out is huge. And Dallas' pass D is improved with getting Hamlin back. I want Green Bay to win because I hate Dallas, but I think Dallas wins by double digits.

Wash -5.5: Some say the Skins may be down. I think the opposite. Playing at home will help. Skins offense passing game looked really good in the 2nd half yesterday, and the Bills secondary is woeful. Just God awful. And with Lynch still banged up, I like Washington.

Also like Cleveland over the Cards.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah...I don't know, Navy...from what I've read....the Skins aren't really worried about this upcoming game.
Gibbs isn't sure they even want to play at all this week.
Other quotes...

Guard Pete Kendall said it will be difficult to prepare for the Bills.

''Obviously, we've got a game this weekend, but that's the farthest thing from my mind and anybody's mind at this point,'' said safety Reed Doughty, who replaced an injured Taylor in Washington's lineup the past two Sundays. ''I guess we'll just take that as it comes.''

I feel for that team....but from a betting standpoint...I don't think they'll have their heads into it throughout the practice week AT ALL, and I don;t think they will be mentally 100% on game day either. That is a tough way to face any NFL team, and a tough way to lay almost a TD as well. Sounds harsh....but this is a betting forum.


Also...you reminded me of the Browns....I will be on them for sure as well. Cards blow....and with the injuries to their key secondary pieces, a secondary that was already 20th in the league....Anderson and the Browns should light it up in the desert. I mean, just look what Dilfer and the worst offense in the league did to them! Losing Wilson and Green are huge against CLE, IMO.

Also might be liking the Giants to bounce back after that embarassment last week...the Bears are still suspect, and you have to expect that good Giants D-line to get after Grossman all day. Not my favourite play however, because of the offence's struggles...but a bounce back wouldn't surprise me.

[NittanyLions94]

If the Ravens don't get their secondary in order they may give up 60 to the Pats. They let Phillip Rivers toss the ball all around the park on them last weekend for chrissakes, and the Ravens commit turnovers like it's going out of style. It's either Pats or no play in that one IMO.

[homedawg]

Its just like I posted last week: "nep lines are over-inflated, and dat **** is gonna catch up with them".... nep clinched the division before they played philly last week, did anyone see a difference in their game???? No reason to press at this point!!!! So far, they have home field advantage throughout the playoffs!!!! All they need to do is, go on the field and win, by 3, 7, or whatever, Just Win! They sure dont need to, get any key players injured! Imo, if balty can play a good game and not give up garbage points, its a +21pt cover....glta:beer2:

[Underdog88]

If the Ravens don't get their secondary in order they may give up 60 to the Pats. They let Phillip Rivers toss the ball all around the park on them last weekend for chrissakes, and the Ravens commit turnovers like it's going out of style. It's either Pats or no play in that one IMO.

Bad spot for them last week with SD off a beatdown at home. IMO too much pride on that team to let that happen to them in their own house! I'm thinking about playing Ravens ML for every quarter. Philly paid out 2 quarters on the ML, you get 1 winning q & you're up :thumbs:

[Daws1089]

philly's offense is atleast competent. the ravens try to give away the ball as much as possible lol

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'll look past HD's comments on any NE game, cause he says that every week! TOO MANY. lmao. (But he was FINALLY right in week 12!) lol...
Interesting point though, HD...will we see a kinder Belichek as the season grows later...dunno...

I agree with Daws...I mean how will Baltimore score the 17+ they will likely need to cover? I don't see it. What did they have passing 1st half against the horrible Cle pass defence, like -5 yards? A far inferior SD team just beat them by 18 points last week? Pretty close to 20. "bad spot" or not. And what happened the ravens last primetime Monday game? Lost by 31 to Pit i think! With that offence every week is a bad spot. Turnovers could be the cover difference on its own, let alone the better offensive talent on top of that. I think they cover this week after the close call...but what do I know. I'm likely not playing it, but if forced too, I would have to lay the points. 20+ NE points off turnovers being the difference, IMO...

Last week was a bad spot? lol. This week is worse...it's called playing NE off a scare!!
I mean Baltimore is one of the worst 5 teams in the NFL, IMO...why wouldn't the line be 20?
HD's theory is the only one that would make sense to me that I've heard so far, in this thread, or any other...

Anyway...F that game, that's not till monday.....I wanna talk Bills or Browns.
Still wondering whether to back them.
With the Bills, I'm waiting on one of Thomas or Lynch to be healthy.
With Cleveland, I'm worried about their defence...although I do think they win a shootout against that Zona secondary, but still waiting this one out i think. I've already played Dal, Indy & SD. Yuck...lots of chalk, but I think each covers easy...

[daft_picks]

Good thoughts so far guys, trying hard to work out the Dallas/GB game tomorrow, thinking very high scoring game, both teams playing excellent offensive ball these teams score in the 20's and 30's almost every game. Thinking over 52 seems high but will probably comfortably be over that. 31-27 or 38-20 type game. Obviously having trouble laying 7 points against such a ready to play GB team in a game that could easily come down to a FG or even go into overtime! (you never know) Hate to be laying 7+ points in a game that goes to OT (all been there right?)

For now dropping one unit on over 52 since it's at -105 for me now, may increase later when I hear some of your opinions on it. Side may come down to defense but GB has put up 30+ points past 4 games so I would have to convince myself this would be a letdown game for them. You guys seem to think so though so I'd have to lean that way if any.

For the weekend lots to look at haven't made up my mind on any although I'm convinced on Buffalo, seems like the smart play even if it doesn't end up being the right one, see a hard fought close game that could finally be Buffalo's bounceback, may even put a little on the ML. Also like Cleveland over Arizona, anybody that looses to SF shouldn't be a pick, but haven't pulled the trigger on it yet.

Those are my thoughts for now, gonna post my first picks for week 13 in a new thread now...

[Mappo]

Anyone concerned about the Cleveland-Arizona game?

Per one of the sports betting % sites I go to, the public has been betting on Cleveland to the tune of nearly 90%!!! And yet, the line has pretty much stayed put.

[Daws1089]

from what i've read, looks like lynch and a train will be out. I may be off of that one.

I know cleveland on the road isn't the smartest thing, but arizona is a sub. 500 team in the nfc which is far weaker than the afc. The injuries on defense are so glaring against the passing game of cleveland. I think cleveland has played a much tougher schedule than arizona too. yea arizona beat pittsburgh and cleveland lost to pitt twice, but look who arizona has beat up on or gotten beat up on by this year:

lose to SF twice!
lose to the Ravens!
lose to carolina
lose to Washington
lose to tampa which isnt terrible

they beat:
pitt
seattle
detroit
cincy
stl

i will say one thing though. Arizona does put up a good amount of pts at home this year and no reason why they couldnt score 24+ against a browns team.

cleveland has lost to:
Pitt twice
NE
oak-yea that is a bad loss

they have beaten:

cincinnati
baltimore twice
miami
stl
seattle
houston

alrite to after looking at this, I've pretty much talked myself out of cleveland lol. They really havent played tougher teams. yea they beat baltimore twice, but they blow. houston isnt good. stl has been hurt all year. and they lost to oakland who isn't good.

They rank 30th in pass defense and 28 in rush defense!

I'm not sure I can back that on the road.

LoL all this analysis and I change my mind. I guess thats why its good to do these things.