Week 13 Discussion

[Underdog88]

I'm considering backing the Cards... they suck on the road & are off a bad loss, but look at their other home games....


Beat the Seahawks 23-20

Beat the Steelers 21-14

Lost to the Panthers

Beat the Lions 31-21


In the Panthers loss, they lost Warner in the first quarter. Rattay took over & threw 3 ints. They had 5 turnovers & the Panthers were down the whole game until the 16 pt 4th. I doubt the outcome would have been the same had Kurt been in. I'm not sure the Browns will be able to put enough pressure on Warner to disrupt him. My only concern is Fitzgerald's groin. Looks as if he'll play though.


The Browns are 2-3 su on the road. In the Rams win, S. Jackson went down in the 2nd quarter. Bulger threw for 310. Throw out the Pats game as they're on another level. They were outgained 396-312 to the Raiders. They were outgained 401-163 vs. the Steelers & if not for Cribbs, it would have been a 10+ pt loss. Baltimore even amassed 368 yards vs. them, & if not for 4 turnovers, they would have lost that one too. IMO turnovers will be the deciding factor here....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah, UD......Cards have been better at home...but that SF loss stings...AND the biggest thing is those earlier home wins were with a full defence....now they've lost 3 defensive starters in the past 3 weeks, including probably their two best players in the secondary....not good against a passing team like the Browns, IMO...

The only thing that concerns me is the Browns defence on the road...Maybe over is the play?

[Daws1089]

i might be a sucker, but isn't +7 for a team that is 10-1 some good value? GB isn't really a worse team than dallas. In fact, they might be better. I originally liked dallas, but i don't know if i can pass up 7 going to such a good team.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

i might be a sucker, but isn't +7 for a team that is 10-1 some good value? GB isn't really a worse team than dallas. In fact, they might be better. I originally liked dallas, but i don't know if i can pass up 7 going to such a good team.

Some people would say that is EXACTLY what your books want you to think...why else would a 10-1 team get that +7??

[Underdog88]

I think the line is right. Dallas has won by 10+ in all but 1 of their home wins. I think the Packers win su, but wouldn't be surprised to see Dallas win & cover... I think both teams can light up the scoreboard, GB's second half vs. detroit worries me a little, but not enough to take a shot at +250 :thumbs:

[dwd14]

i really like dallas, but too many times have i gone against brett favre and gotten burned. every time he is on the stage he does something special. think the best bet on it is the over but still looking.

[navy_blue99]

Tonight's game is tough. I'll probably stay away from the line and bet one of the props. I kinda like Green Bay over 22.5 total points. I think Green Bay can put some points up on that secondary. If i were to make a play, on the line, i'd probably tease Dallas and take the over.

[Underdog88]

We hardly touched on the games this week! I'll put my writeups here so someone can counter with something if they want. Still plaenty of time before the games to get some chatter going.



Den/Oak o42- This one is a bit scary as there's no concrete info on who will get the stat at qb for Oakland. Howver, I don't expect them to do all that much anyway. I think we'll see a lot more running on both sides of the ball. Normally that would favor an under, but I don't think that's the case today. Denver is averaging 4.5 ypc & 124 per game. Oakland is averaging 4.2 ypc & 131 per game. both very solid run games. Denver is allowing 4.7 ypc 146 per game. The Raiders are allowing 5 ypc & 153 per game! Basically to me it looks as if both teams will have troublle stopping each other's ground games. All you need for the over is for the teams to play the way they have been the whole season....Cutler should be able to make a couple plays off the play action. I lean to the Raiders as a home dog here, but IMO the over is the better play.


Philly-3- Tough game here, but with AJ in I feel a bit more comforatable. This is a must win for the Eagles if they want to keep any hope alive for a wildcard. Westbrook should be able to generate offense, but I think it comes down to the defense here. I think they played a solid game vs. the Pats. Holding a powerhouse team like that to 24 pts is no easy feat, & they were the first team to consistently get pressure on Brady. No doubt they'll be bringing the pressure on Hasselbeck. Last week the Rams brought LB blitzes early & were very effective. They totaled 5 sacks vs. Sea last week, IMO Philly will be all over him today. This is a bad spot for Seattle, as it's their 2nd road game in a row, & they're already a bad road team. They're 2-4, with wins @ SF & last week (thanks to Bulger going down). To me it ultimately comes down to who needs it more, & it's undoubtedly the Eagles. :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

Jets/Fins o37- I see already that some are playing the Dolphins here, with the reasoning that vegas is giving away the winner by making the Dolphins the fave. What the hell do you want them to do, make a 2-9 team the road favorite? Tht being said, I won't be on the Jets. I think this one is an over play. The last meeting between these two resulted in 59 pts combined. The last 3 road games for the Jets have resulted in 37 vs Dal, 69 vs. Cincy, & 59 vs. the Giants. They mustered 19 pts to beat the Steelers, a much tougher D than Miami is sporting at the moment. Holliday is questionable & Zach Thomas is out. Both teams are piss poor against the run. Miami allowed 202 rushing against Philly (I can't really judge anything off of last week's game as they played in a mud pit). The Dolphins are allowing 4.3 ypc/148 per game, while the Jets are allowing 4.4/150 per game. So much for the Man-genious. Miami is averaging 4.4 ypc/109 per game. Honestly I don't think it matters who plays rb, I think they should be able to move the ball. This will be Becks. first home start, & it should be a bit easier than facing the blitz happy Eagles & Steelers on the road. IMO this line is low because of injuries & recent totals, but neither should matter today. I have them each putting up 20 pts or more in this matchup, so over it is.

[Daws1089]

lots of rain and sleet here in philly. should mean trouble for the seahawks terrible run game.

[Underdog88]

Looks like Alexander will play for Seattle- doesn't worry me.


Fitzgerald banged up for the Cards- gets me off the over & could screw me for fantasy.


I wanted to play the Bills, but I'm thinking better of it. My wife said you can't mess with a team that just had a tragedy, because they get retard strength. Almost made me spit my coffee out, but she may be on to something....

[Underdog88]

SD/KC over36.5- Huards will start for the Chiefs. Rivers a big fat question mark on the road & in general. Kolby Smith should be fine at RB, but I can see LT going off on this team.... KC allowing 4 ypc, SD allowing 4.2. What gives me enough to take the over?


Chargers totals on the road

@NE 52
@GB 55
@Den 44
@Minny 52
@Jax 41


Chiefs totals at home

vs. Oak 37
vs. Den 38
vs. GB 55
vs. Cincy 47



The first 2 home games for the Chiefs went under this number with Jax/Minny. With the line move, I was very tempted to play the Chiefs, but I don't think they win su so it's a no go. F the Arrowhead mistique too :thumbs:

[homedawg]

I'll look past HD's comments on any NE game, cause he says that every week! TOO MANY. lmao. (But he was FINALLY right in week 12!) lol...
Interesting point though, HD...will we see a kinder Belichek as the season grows later...dunno...

...

definitely, not every week... got it again tonight.... :party:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

definitely, not every week... got it again tonight.... :party:

Nice call! :thumbs:
You were right on!

Did you play it :dunno:


I'm still 7-1 on NE games I think this year...I'll take it!


What do you think about next week NE/Pit, HD?

[homedawg]

Nice call! :thumbs:
You were right on!

Did you play it :dunno:


I'm still 7-1 on NE games I think this year...I'll take it!


What do you think about next week NE/Pit, HD?

Yes,+21.... & 2u u51.5 ... already got pit +13.5 earlier at oly... no ml out yet but will jump it...


pitt #1 top, pitt d #1 against the rush, pitt d #1 points allowed, pitt #2 pass d. ........------> nep gettin' EXPOSED


:beer2: