***UDoggie's NFL Week 12***

[GoBigorGoHome]

gl UD, likin the texans and rams, check into the raiders too, they seem to be a good play today

[Underdog88]

check into the raiders too, they seem to be a good play today

Despite the public backing the Chiefs & the reverse line movement, I still don't like that game. The Chiefs run game is lacking, yet the Raiders can't stop anything on the ground. Oakland also has an almost non existant pass game. If anything, I would have played the under....

[Stifler's Mom]

Personally, I'm not sure why everyone has a boner for Oakland today. I've seen everyone jumping on them, but haven't seen any good reasoning why.

Using pick the winner, you have to expect them to win outright on the road at KC. Now granted KC isn't good either, but lets face it, the Raiders suck.

Asking a team with 2 wins on the season (1 on the road, at 0-10 Miami) to win outright on the road is a stretch, IMHO, no matter who they're playing.

[Q-Unit]

Eagles +1600 ML you know you want to

[Stifler's Mom]

BTW, why the Giants? I was leaning Minnesota. I think WAY too much is made of Peterson....and the Giants aren't exactly a model of health either right now with some of their key players (Burress - will play, but not near 100%, Jacobs - out, and Kiwanuka - out) in some pretty bad shape.

I still think NYG probably has enough to pull out the win, but crushing Minnesota doesn't (IMO) seem likely.

I see a close game....therefore I was leaning Minny +7.5....but haven't completely made up my mind yet, which is why I was asking your thoughts, in case I'm missing something.

GL today. With you on pretty much everything else :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Eagles +1600 ML you know you want to

I can get them +2000 at 5 Dimes, LOL

[Underdog88]

Exactly Stif :thumbs:


I'm considering the Jags/Bills over. Jags defense is banged up, & they're without leading tackler Peterson. I think the Bills could connect on some deep balls, & I also think Jax will be moving the ball. 5 of the Jags last 6 games have gone over this total, the sole one being the loss to Indy, where they couldn't get anything going....

[hodown]

gl udogg

[Irish Sooner]

Haynesworth is on the Titans inactive list for this week.

:thumbs:

[Underdog88]

BTW, why the Giants? I was leaning Minnesota. I think WAY too much is made of Peterson....and the Giants aren't exactly a model of health either right now with some of their key players (Burress - will play, but not near 100%, Jacobs - out, and Kiwanuka - out) in some pretty bad shape.

I still think NYG probably has enough to pull out the win, but crushing Minnesota doesn't (IMO) seem likely.

I see a close game....therefore I was leaning Minny +7.5...

I agree that too much is made about Peterson's absence- Chester is a more than able back. That has nothing to do with my play. I think that to beat the Vikings, you have to be able to pass the ball well, & have a good run D. The Giants are allowing 92 ypg on the ground, & have an ample passing attack. Looking at the Vikings past couple games, they beat Oakland (no run D at all), & ran all over the Chargers, who are very overrated defensively IMO. Niether of those 2 teams could throw the ball downfield, & when they did play a team that could (GB) look what happened. I think this one is a 10+ win.

Also Stif, you post that NYG probably has enough to win, but that it could be close. Pick the winner! NYG or no play.....:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

I agree that too much is made about Peterson's absence- Chester is a more than able back. That has nothing to do with my play. I think that to beat the Vikings, you have to be able to pass the ball well, & have a good run D. The Giants are allowing 92 ypg on the ground, & have an ample passing attack. Looking at the Vikings past couple games, they beat Oakland (no run D at all), & ran all over the Chargers, who are very overrated defensively IMO. Niether of those 2 teams could throw the ball downfield, & when they did play a team that could (GB) look what happened. I think this one is a 10+ win.

Also Stif, you post that NYG probably has enough to win, but that it could be close. Pick the winner! NYG or no play.....:thumbs:

Yes, but the line is over +7....and actually, in years past when I have kept track, lines between +7.5 and +10 just blindly covered at an alarming rate, even though the dog rarely ever wins outright.

This was the only category that stood out in favor of going AGAINST the pick the winner system.

We know the numbers on lines of +7 or less, and actually the fave covered at a very strong rate on lines of -10.5 or more too when winning outright (which is nearly always).

Eli can be flustered, and without Jacobs and a far less than 100% Burress, I don't think their passing attack is going to be all that special today.....as proven against that "horrible" Detroit defense last week, and the loss of Kiwanuka is going to IMO be a large hole in their defense as well.

I also cannot ignore the fact that the public is hitting the NYG at 81% ATS and yet the line is not moving up....and has actually moved DOWN from +8 to +7.5 at some books.

You may be right on this one and the Giants could steamroll the Vikes, but I don't think Minny is a play I can avoid today, lol.

Also, if that Chiefs line keeps moving down, they're going to end up being a play for me close to game time too. It's down to -3.5 now at some books....and I'm just not buying the "public is pounding the Chiefs". I don't think I've seen one play on KC yet today by anyone here.

[Underdog88]

If this one was in Minny, I would be hesitant to play on the Giants, as Eli on the road still makes me nervous. I'm ok with playing him at home with the worst pass D in the league, even if Burress is unhealthy. I am pissed off I didn't wait to get it at -7, as it's available now:bang:

[HoosierDaddy]

BTW, why the Giants? I was leaning Minnesota. I think WAY too much is made of Peterson....and the Giants aren't exactly a model of health either right now with some of their key players (Burress - will play, but not near 100%, Jacobs - out, and Kiwanuka - out) in some pretty bad shape.

I still think NYG probably has enough to pull out the win, but crushing Minnesota doesn't (IMO) seem likely.

I see a close game....therefore I was leaning Minny +7.5....but haven't completely made up my mind yet, which is why I was asking your thoughts, in case I'm missing something.

GL today. With you on pretty much everything else :thumbs:

The one thing about the Giants, however, is that they've taken care of business against the "bad" teams this year. Also, usually the way to beat them is through the air, which Minny won't even attempt to do.

That said though, Eli has struggled at the end of the year throughout his career, so who knows.

[Stifler's Mom]

Oh, and why no love for our Bills today?

JAX is dinged in the secondary, and the Bills are in all reality a 7-3 team, with losses to NE (2X) and PIT. Throw out the losses to NE who is clearly beating the crap out of everyone, and they only have one game they didn't compete in. So why are they expected to not compete today at JAX?

Too much made of Lynch being out, IMHO, as I don't really think Lynch would have had a huge game against the JAX rushing D anyway.

[Underdog88]

KC :thumbs:



Broncos team o20

Bungles+103

2 units each



Bills team o14-105

1 unit


Bills+395

half unit


Bengals team o22.5-125
Jags/Bills o36.5
Chiefs-210
Giants-335
Chargers-425

1 to win 6.9 units


I like that Bengals team over, & really wwanted to play it straight. However, I can't lay-125 on a team total.