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Week 10: 6-1, +26.90 Units
NFL YTD: 58-25, +108.90 Units
Three public road favs for me this week :beer2:
Browns -2.5 -110 vs Ravens
Fading the Ravens....what a joke of an offense....and I don't see Boller coming in and changing that fact. Cleveland's offence should continue to roll against an over-rated Baltimore defence that has given up an average of 26 points the past 3 games. The Browns have a bad secondary....but that shouldn't be exploited against one of the worst passing teams in the NFL. Cleveland has been winning shootouts all year, but I don't see the Ravens having the weapons to keep up here. Baltimore has been banged up every week, and continue to have injury problems across the board coming into this one.
Giants -2.5 -117 vs Lions
Detroit's home winning streak ends here, IMO...Lions offence too one-dimensional...which showed in Zona....prefer Giants defence....Detroit can't win 'em all at home, and this seems like the perfect spot for a first loss....Giants coming off the close loss to Dallas, and looking to show they are still elite...
Patriots -14 -126 vs Bills
Much like alot of NE's games this year, this ones going to be ugly. Looks like Marshawn Lynch is out for Buffalo. Yikes. I was on the fence for laying 14.5 points with NE, but Buffalo's only chance, IMO...was to run the ball with Lynch...burn some time with Brady off the field, and MAYBE, MAYBE have a slim chance at a home cover (with the help of a lucky turnover or special teams play). Now I think they lose by 30. Pats coming off a bye, in prime time against a backfield of Losman & backup Anthony Thomas? I mean that offence WITH Lynch was not able to score ANY points through 3 quarters against winless Miami!! Zero. Zilch. Nada. They only had 220 total yards against Miami....if you can't move the ball against NE...you are in deep trouble....and the Bills are not a good team at sustaining drives (22nd in time of possesion). You need to keep Brady off the field (like Indy was able to do) to have any chance of keeping it close...and I don't see Buffalo being able to do that. I'm 6-0 on NE games this year (5 backs, 1 fade)...why not make it 7! lol. I'm laying the 2 TDs (bought the hook).
5 Units Each
Adding...
Packers -9 -111 vs Panthers
Gotta give Farve & the Pack credit...they are getting it done....I expect another DD win over a Carolina team that continues to be brutal at QB. The struggling Smith looks banged up too, and is questionable. Farve and the passing game are getting all the credit...but the Packer defence is ranked a respectable 10th, and Ryan Grant looks like a keeper at RB. Carolina just plain can't score (27 points total in last 3 games!) and won't be able to keep up with Farve...especially at Lambeau.
Cardinals +4 -125 vs Bungals
Cincy gets one win over a horrible offensive team like Baltimore, and they're giving a FG+?? Big deal, their defence finally stopped somebody....but the Cards offence is a major step-up in talent and playmakers, and will win this one outright in a shootout, IMO. Zona has been in every game this year, and against better competition...and should not be getting points from a horrible defensive team like Cincy. I expect the big names of Zona to light up that horrible Bengal secondary. I mean, the Bengals have only won three games this year - Week 1: 27-20 over Baltimore, Week 7: 38-31 over the Jets and last week's 21-7 win over the Ravens. Not a great resume for a FG+ favourite, IMO.
Raiders +6 -125 vs Vikings
God help me...but I don't think the Vikings should be laying a TD win line without AP. Chester Taylor is decent...but no Peterson, and I think losing him actually means more to the team psyche and to their confidence, than the actual obvious downgrade to Taylor. And you see what happened last week against GB when the Vikings lost AP early...I think Oakland will do the same thing....stack the box make the Minny QB beat them, which is unlikely. This looks to be a low scoring game, IMO...so getting almost a TD seems like the right play. In the Raiders five game losing streak, four of the five games have been close. Culpepper also looks to be starting...playing his former team, where there is still animosity....and the last time he played them, while a Dolphin, he lit them up in a serious way!
Saints/Texans OVER 47.5 -112
Shootout down in Texas. The Saints have the guns to move the ball every week as we know (6th in YPG even after struggling early), and surprisingly, so do the Texans (9th in YPG), and most importantly, they also get their starting QB and franchise WR back for this one...facing a Saints pass defence that ranks 29th in the league! Both defences are below average, IMO....ranking 25 & 26 in PPG allowed! 40-30 type win...
Steelers -9 -109 vs Jets
Blowout.....Pittsburgh got a scare last week from the Browns but will come back and lay a beating on this ****ty Jets team. This is an all-around great team with the best defence in the league, and they have been moving the ball with Ben playing like a top 5 NFL QB. This should really be a 2 TD line. I mean NY is ranked 29 in offence and 30th on defence. Scary...
Rams -3 -104 vs Niners
**** it...decided to add another fade of SF on a low number. Yeah, STL has blown this year too....but that was without alot of their offensive stars. Bulger now coming off 2 pretty good outings and has all his weapons ready to continue having big games from here on in. SF adds Trent Dilfer to the worst offence the NFL has seen in many years. Laugh my ass off, are they bad. Maybe SF could win with defence? Not great their either, as Hasselbeck really carved that secondary up last week...and Bulger should do the same...
4 Units Each
GL! :thumbs:
NFL YTD: 58-25, +108.90 Units
Three public road favs for me this week :beer2:
Browns -2.5 -110 vs Ravens
Fading the Ravens....what a joke of an offense....and I don't see Boller coming in and changing that fact. Cleveland's offence should continue to roll against an over-rated Baltimore defence that has given up an average of 26 points the past 3 games. The Browns have a bad secondary....but that shouldn't be exploited against one of the worst passing teams in the NFL. Cleveland has been winning shootouts all year, but I don't see the Ravens having the weapons to keep up here. Baltimore has been banged up every week, and continue to have injury problems across the board coming into this one.
Giants -2.5 -117 vs Lions
Detroit's home winning streak ends here, IMO...Lions offence too one-dimensional...which showed in Zona....prefer Giants defence....Detroit can't win 'em all at home, and this seems like the perfect spot for a first loss....Giants coming off the close loss to Dallas, and looking to show they are still elite...
Patriots -14 -126 vs Bills
Much like alot of NE's games this year, this ones going to be ugly. Looks like Marshawn Lynch is out for Buffalo. Yikes. I was on the fence for laying 14.5 points with NE, but Buffalo's only chance, IMO...was to run the ball with Lynch...burn some time with Brady off the field, and MAYBE, MAYBE have a slim chance at a home cover (with the help of a lucky turnover or special teams play). Now I think they lose by 30. Pats coming off a bye, in prime time against a backfield of Losman & backup Anthony Thomas? I mean that offence WITH Lynch was not able to score ANY points through 3 quarters against winless Miami!! Zero. Zilch. Nada. They only had 220 total yards against Miami....if you can't move the ball against NE...you are in deep trouble....and the Bills are not a good team at sustaining drives (22nd in time of possesion). You need to keep Brady off the field (like Indy was able to do) to have any chance of keeping it close...and I don't see Buffalo being able to do that. I'm 6-0 on NE games this year (5 backs, 1 fade)...why not make it 7! lol. I'm laying the 2 TDs (bought the hook).
5 Units Each
Adding...
Packers -9 -111 vs Panthers
Gotta give Farve & the Pack credit...they are getting it done....I expect another DD win over a Carolina team that continues to be brutal at QB. The struggling Smith looks banged up too, and is questionable. Farve and the passing game are getting all the credit...but the Packer defence is ranked a respectable 10th, and Ryan Grant looks like a keeper at RB. Carolina just plain can't score (27 points total in last 3 games!) and won't be able to keep up with Farve...especially at Lambeau.
Cardinals +4 -125 vs Bungals
Cincy gets one win over a horrible offensive team like Baltimore, and they're giving a FG+?? Big deal, their defence finally stopped somebody....but the Cards offence is a major step-up in talent and playmakers, and will win this one outright in a shootout, IMO. Zona has been in every game this year, and against better competition...and should not be getting points from a horrible defensive team like Cincy. I expect the big names of Zona to light up that horrible Bengal secondary. I mean, the Bengals have only won three games this year - Week 1: 27-20 over Baltimore, Week 7: 38-31 over the Jets and last week's 21-7 win over the Ravens. Not a great resume for a FG+ favourite, IMO.
Raiders +6 -125 vs Vikings
God help me...but I don't think the Vikings should be laying a TD win line without AP. Chester Taylor is decent...but no Peterson, and I think losing him actually means more to the team psyche and to their confidence, than the actual obvious downgrade to Taylor. And you see what happened last week against GB when the Vikings lost AP early...I think Oakland will do the same thing....stack the box make the Minny QB beat them, which is unlikely. This looks to be a low scoring game, IMO...so getting almost a TD seems like the right play. In the Raiders five game losing streak, four of the five games have been close. Culpepper also looks to be starting...playing his former team, where there is still animosity....and the last time he played them, while a Dolphin, he lit them up in a serious way!
Saints/Texans OVER 47.5 -112
Shootout down in Texas. The Saints have the guns to move the ball every week as we know (6th in YPG even after struggling early), and surprisingly, so do the Texans (9th in YPG), and most importantly, they also get their starting QB and franchise WR back for this one...facing a Saints pass defence that ranks 29th in the league! Both defences are below average, IMO....ranking 25 & 26 in PPG allowed! 40-30 type win...
Steelers -9 -109 vs Jets
Blowout.....Pittsburgh got a scare last week from the Browns but will come back and lay a beating on this ****ty Jets team. This is an all-around great team with the best defence in the league, and they have been moving the ball with Ben playing like a top 5 NFL QB. This should really be a 2 TD line. I mean NY is ranked 29 in offence and 30th on defence. Scary...
Rams -3 -104 vs Niners
**** it...decided to add another fade of SF on a low number. Yeah, STL has blown this year too....but that was without alot of their offensive stars. Bulger now coming off 2 pretty good outings and has all his weapons ready to continue having big games from here on in. SF adds Trent Dilfer to the worst offence the NFL has seen in many years. Laugh my ass off, are they bad. Maybe SF could win with defence? Not great their either, as Hasselbeck really carved that secondary up last week...and Bulger should do the same...
4 Units Each
GL! :thumbs:
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