Week 9 Discussion

**Daws1089** · 10-30-2007, 10:43 AM

congrats to ya for your upcoming wedding, that is exciting. Can you watch football where you are heading for your honeymoon?

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 10-30-2007, 10:58 AM

My early thoughts...

Originally posted by Underdog88

I'll only be around until tomorrow night, as I'm getting married & going away, so I'll post some thoughts & you guys can keep it going.

First off...GL this weekend! I just got married last month, and it was a blast! The day goes by so fast, but just enjoy the day with your friends and family. I also suggest a couple cold ones before the ceremony...definitely calmed my nerves! lol

I have 6 plays I am looking at playing this week, and I am on 3 public plays already to try and save getting juiced out of the key numbers...Wash/Dal/SD. I know most people here will be jumping at the chance to post fades of those three (especially Dallas!!) because of the public numbers, but what the hell...I've been able to pick the correct public plays all year, so why stop now. And hey...Yo's on them already too with his trend machines pumping out data 24/7! lol. I'll be on some anti-public dogs too...looking at SF Under, Carolina & Indy, but I am waiting to get a good line later in the week.

Like I said, I'm on the Skins already, as they are getting pounded to the tune of 75+%...so I wanted to make sure I didn't get juiced off the key number. Great spot for the Skins IMO, getting killed last game, looking for redemption, and who better to run all over than the Jets. What a bad team on both sides of the ball. I agree...the Skins will run the ball all day, with the odd play action throws deep to Moss & Randel El, and will cover the small number. The Jets losing Vilma looked huge against the Bills, and will again this week. Skins defence specifically looking for redemtion after facing Brady, and might pitch a shutout against Kellen. Jets best player, Coles, also looks to have a concussion?

I'm on the Public Chargers this week as well. This team has turned it around, and will spank the Vikings IMO. UD...I like how you pointed out SD's 27th ranked pass D, but guess who is 32nd?? lol, yup the Vikings. However, Minny doesn't have much else than AP, especcially with a 3rd string QB in this week and no quality WR, where as the Bolts CAN pass the ball. Interesting matchup with 2 great running games, and two great run defences...but you still have to give the slight edge to LT over AP, and with 2 bad pass defences, this game might be won in the air where one team is decent (SD Gates/Rivers, etc), and one team is horrible (Min ranked 30th and with Bollinger/nobody).

Backed dem Public Cowboys too. lol. I think Philly is a bottom-feeder team that has a perception of a good team. Sqeaking by Minny, losing to the horrible Bears, sqeaking by the Jets? Emabarrased by the Giants? I'm mostly fading the Eagles in this one, but I like Dallas to come out smoking after a bye week as well. I also think Demarcus Ware and Terrance Newman are in the backfield giving McNabb fits all day against that Philly O-line. Dallas hasn't looked as dominant, but I think they do this week.

Colts. Glad I layed off Wash last week....just didn't seem right, and boy was it ever wrong! lol. I'll be on the Colts for sure, as the Pats are of course over-valued this week. Up until now, with those huge numbers they were laying against weaker teams, it really had to be a NE play or a no-play IMO, and that's what I've done with 5 NE wins, and 3 no-plays...but finally I get to fade NE! I think these teams are pretty even...but throw in the 6 points, and home field, and the Colts seem to have the best value. You need an good offense that can sustain drives to have a chance against NE (mostly why I backed out of the skins play) keeping Brady off the field, and we know Peyton sure as **** can do that. Hopefully the dog line moves even more in this one! Would love -7 -120.

Also looking to play Carolina this week getting 4.5. Tennessee has played close games all year and their offense hasn't shown the ability to get big leads on anyone. I actually have this being a pretty close game, as Carolina might be a bit under-valued coming off a blowout home loss...but that was against powerhouse Indy (and they were actually in it at the half). They are also 4-0 SU & ATS on the road this year (0-3 at home), and a good cover team (13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.) I think this is another close game, and I give Carolina just as much of a chance of winning this game outright, so I'll take the 4.5.

One more total play this week, as I've won a couple in a row... with the Niners/Falcons UNDER 37. These are two of the worst offensive teams in football (actually SF IS the worst, by far!), and also SF still has banged up offensive stars (Gore/Smith), and the Falcons are forced to come back with Harrington. Both defences are decent, ranked middle of the pack in points against. This one seems like a 13-10 type game, IMO....no play on the side, as I can't back either offence!

This will probably be my first no-play on a Bills game in a while. I have nothing to back it up, and I have been fading Cincy ALL YEAR, but for some reason I think they come into Buffalo this week and win this game. Cincy blows on defence, but can Buffalo score enough on them to keep pace with the 20+ points the Bengals are sure to get? Unfortunately I don't think so, but I hope I'm wrong. Laying off this one altogether.

Looks like 3 public favs, 2 anti-public dogs, and a total for me this week....unless I tail, fade, or see something else that I like during the week. The only other one I was kinda looking at was the Chiefs a small anit-public fav at home. Tough place to play, and GB coming off that big MNF win, going in on a short week. We'll see...

**infinite** · 10-30-2007, 11:11 AM

home dogs

For some reason I think Philly has the best value of the home dogs. Dallas somehow got anointed as the "class of the NFC", which is ridiculous. IMO it's clearly GB. Dallas is about as overrated as any team.

They have one quality win, that came way back in week 1 against the New York football Giants. Their other wins: Dolphins, Bears, Rams (second stringers), Bills, and Vikings.:puke: All sub .500 teams. Two of which haven't won a single game.

Dallas is week at D tackle. Extremely weak in the secondary (Roy Williams gets my vote for most overrated D player). Not very good at receiver. (I'll entertain arguments for Terrel (if you throw it to me 10 times I'll make a play on it 6 or 7 times and drop it 4 of those) Owens. Their best pass catcher is easily Witten, who is reliable but far from explosive like a gates, gonzalez, or winslow.

The only position where they have an edge on GB is running back, and probably offensive line.

I think they get exposed on the road at Philly this week. Philly is far more battle tested. They've lost twice at home, to the Bears (who had to win to save their season. Griese just decided to wait for the Lions game to throw three jump balls into the end zone.) and Redskins. Muffed away a game at GB. Destroyed the Lions.

Dallas has the advantage of the bye week, but their quarterback is running around with movie stars and their coach isn't all that good. I think Philly has the coaching edge with Andy Reid by far.

I just don't see them dropping to 1-3 at home. I think the Eagles win outright, exposing Dallas as nothing more than a nice little team in the JV conference.

I'm not saying that I think this is the best play of the weak, but I really don't think Dallas is either.

**infinite** · 10-30-2007, 12:07 PM

quick thoughts on the rest of the games.

Just a few thoughts on week 9, haven't checked the injury reports yet.

Wash / NYJ
I like the redskins team. No way I could play the jets, but the skins have had trouble scoring this year. I still think they win by at least TD. However, maybe Thomas Jones gets going against a not so good front seven and the Jets keep it close. Gotta like the Wash coaching staff coming off that embarrassing loss though.

GB/KC
Thought maybe KC would be a dog again. The books wised up though. Cincy -3, GB +2.5? Still like the chiefs team coming off a bye. I think seeing Favre throw those bombs monday night will make it easy for the young KC safeties to stay back, and KC's front seven is as good as any. They should shut down the run and the LB's are extremely fast and can cover the short passes. Totally different D than denver. KC is all cover 2, and damn good at it. They won't even bother with bump and run, and if they do they'll definately roll a safety over. KC's O-line is absolutely terrible. But i think LJ/Gonzo/Bowe can make enough plays to get some points on the board against a very good GB D. Allen and Hali should get pressure on Favre. If they can force a few turnovers, KC wins easily (which for them is a FG or two:thumbs: ). It's pretty hard to bet against Favre, but I'm on the chiefs this week.

Zona/TB
Haven't really had a chance to watch these two. Cards off a bye at TB coming off a bad loss. I don't think TB loses back to back at home, but Ari is talented, and TB has no running game.

Car/Ten
Leaning towards Carolina, who has been a damn good road team. 4-0 on the road. 0-3 at home? Tough to pull the trigger on such an inconsistent team though. Gotta look at this one more.

SF/ATL
ugly. no clue:bang:

Jax/NO
I like the saints. They're heating up, and this is the Jag's second tough road game in a row. Jax does such a good job of running the ball and playing D though. Del Rio is a great game manager, and plays against the clock as much or more so as the other team. Seemed to me like Garrard was integral, and the Jag's got lucky with an early pick six and late one hand Matt Jones TD grab last week. Definately leaning toward NO.

Den/Det
Probably stay away from this one, but I'm gonna say Denver wins with another walk off FG:laughing:

Cin/Buf
I'll play the over before I play a side. I do like Marshawn Lynch to shred the wet kleenex that is the Cincy D. Talented rookie that gets lost with all the Adrian Peterson hype.

SD/Min
A lot of points, but how can I not like the bolts. gotta look at this one more. Min is really good vs the run. If they can run the ball, (which means if they give it to AP), and force a TO or two... gotta look at this one more.

SEA/CLE
I really like Holmgren/Hasselbeck off the bye.

NE/IND
I wonder what the line would be if Harrison was playing. Tom Brady meet a consistent pass rush. If NE doesn't, or can't, run the ball the golden boy is gonna have a long day. I like the colts, but I gotta take a while to think about this one. Remember the day when playing indoors on turf was an advantage for Indy.:sm:

HOU/OAK
Leaning towards the Raiders, especially if Hou is without Johnson, and a RB again.

Already covered PHI/Dal. I'll wait on MNF.

**Stifler's Mom** · 10-30-2007, 12:14 PM

I think Philly is a great play this week....for alot of the reasons you pointed out.

Look at the list of teams Dallas has beaten!!

And really, the BUF game should have been a loss, and everyone saw it.

MIN was right there with em too until they started turning the ball over.

Miami and St Louis are winless.

No Philly isn't a great team, but is Dallas?

I don't really think so....

Plus, Philly's loss to now 6-1 GB (a game they probably should have won) doesn't look so bad.

They had a completely decimated offensive line vs NYG and never even had a chance to compete. NYG had the ball the entire game, and only put up 16. Something can be said for the Philly defense holding them in check in that game, especially since the Giants have a pretty respectable offense.

Just "squeaking out" wins against MIN and NYJ? Yes, this is true, but they were road games, and they won both of them by a TD and covered the spread as well.

They pasted Detroit as well.

The loss to CHI was pitiful, but they did lead the whole game untlil when it counted.

To me it's a case of one team putting up big numbers against nobody's, and another team playing ugly, but against far better competition....and the result is an extremely anti-public home dog.

I may have made this type of comparison before (NE)....and been wrong....but DAL is not NE. Not by a long shot.

**Stifler's Mom** · 10-30-2007, 12:41 PM

I also just have to LOL at how the public will normally back the Colts at any old stupid line, and now they won't touch them as a +6 (and rising) home dog.

One thing I will point out about that game, is that I feel the better D lies with Indy. I have been impressed with their defense this year. Very impressed.

I don't think they'll shut down the Pats, but I think they can slow em to in the 20's or low 30's, and to think Peyton's not gonna put up 28 or more in this one (if he needs to) is a little hard to believe....and would cover/push the spread even if NE gets to 34.

Which brings me to the total....I think the entire game could play out a little different that people think. I know the general consensus is a 40 something to 30 something game. I really don't think either team wants that. Both QB's and offenses can control the ball and run the clock, and keep the other off the field....which is something I believe they will both try to do. Both of these teams are just too smart to try and intentionally get into a shootout without the other. I lean towards the under, somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-24.

Also, I saw talk somewhere on here about NE hammering on Indy last year in the playoffs, but blowing it. True, but did Bob Sanders play in that one? I don't think he did....but I'm not positive. Anyone who has seen the Indy defense with and without him knows why I ask that. Then again, maybe a NE player will just cheapshot him and get him out of the game. That would be something new....

Anyway, that game also points out why it's a bad idea to lay points against the Colts at home. They're never out of it, even if it takes a big comeback for a win, or a back door cover. Manning can flat out get it done when it matters, and unless you think the Pats just roll em by 20+, I see no way you can lay close to a TD in this game, from a value standpoint. Way too much chance Manning comes in the backdoor, even if the Pats are leading late.

Anyway, at a pick em to +/-4 I wouldn't touch either side in this one, cause there's no value in doing so. I think either side could win this one.....but the Colts at +6 (or better) at home? Every extra half point adds value in a game like this IMO...unlike most others where you can just pick the winner (normally) and they cover because the lines are so generic.

Plus they're being told all week they can't win? I don't think Manning will take too kindly to that, or the rest of em. Last I checked, Indy won the super bowl last year, and is also undefeated this year. I've never seen so much disrespect for a 7-0 team who was last year's super bowl champion! Talk about motivation!

Bottom line is I can't see them not being competitive here....whoever wins the game, and the line is becoming a steal in the favor of Indy, as far as chance of covering wise.

Like JML, I'm sure as hell hoping it hits +7, as IMO there's no way NE has better than a 48% shot of beating Indy at home by over a TD (needs to be better than 52% to Indy to be a profitable situation). Not that it can't happen, but I'm saying the chances are not in their favor to do so....IMO.

I see a close game.

**infinite** · 10-30-2007, 12:43 PM

Cowgirls.

Maybe I'm just anti-dallas for some reason. I don't know. Just not sold on them. The turnover battle is going to be interesting in this one. I think Romo is a solid QB, but he has shown he will make mistakes. Gotta think he might have dollar signs, or movie star tail, pop into his mind when The Freak is bearing down on him.
Barber III is obviously a tough runner, and he can sell out on every carry with Jones there on the bench to give him a breather. This should be a very tight hard fought game. Hopefully we get a few of those after all the blowouts in week 8. Although Jax/TB was good, and Favre had another MNF classic.

And you're right Stif. Dallas is no NE. NE added the best defensive athlete, and best offensive athlete in the league to a team that barely missed the super bowl out of the AFC last year. What they did with Thomas, Moss, Welker, and Stallworth reminds me of what me and my college roommates did to our madden teams when we used to go at it in franchise mode. Unbelievable. I blame the Raiders and Al Davis for this one.

Can't forget

Congrats to the (and about to be) newlyweds. :beerbang: :beerbang: :beerbang:

As far as the O/U on the Indy/NE game:

Indy will run the ball as much as they can to keep Brady off the field (especially without Marvin martian). And Belicheck would be crazy to drop Brady back everyplay exposing him to Freeney and Mathis. Thats why the skins got blown out, they have absolutely no pass rush with the front four. But who knows, he's shown he'll try and put up 70 if he can. I've always been impressed with Marlin Jackson. I think he has the athleticism to challenge Moss, if any one other than Champ does.

**hodown** · 10-30-2007, 01:25 PM

JETS +3 1/2
i see no value in the jets. theyre not getting any of my money.

VIKES +7
the chargers victory last wk was a little smoke and mirrors, as it got ugly from the beginning with houston turnovers and 2 defensive scores. houston actually outgained them by a decent margin, albeit they were behind the whole game. no doubt sd is playing better, but 7 is a lot if your name isnt new england or indy.

EAGLES +3
rivalry game between philly and dallas, so both sides should be ready to go. no blowouts expected here, so id take the points.

BILLS +1
bills been playing well as of late. cinci has not. line has moved 4 points in cincis favor, so that should tell you something. i will be on the bengals this sunday.

COLTS +4.5
this has been the discussion for a few wks. if one was looking to make money, im not sure if this is the best game to lay on. id imagine the colts play keep away and try to shorten the game, prob never thought id say that with the manning led colts. i think either team wins by one score or less, so i guess its just pick the winner. might as well take the points.

i also like carolina (w/o vinny), seattle, kc

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 10-30-2007, 01:27 PM

Re: Dallas. Yeah...both teams have had pretty easy schedules (I agree Dallas easier), but Dallas has got it done every week, simple as that....maybe not covered, but at a FG line this week against another non-contender, it's essentially a pick'em, and I think Dallas is the better team especially coming off a bye week. Dallas' lines were inflated for a while, and now after some average looking performances (but still winning!), the lines seem to be better value to back them. But I realized I would be in the minority with that opinion here at predictem! However...talk is good. Anyway...every game I have seen of Philly, they have been a joke (I missed the Det game obviously), so it's a fade of them, and a backing of the bye week. GL with whatever you guys play!

Could't agree more with Stifs NE/Indy post....I know there is a love affair with the Pats, but Indy is traditionally the biggest public team there is, and I am very surprised the % on NE at -5.

**infinite** · 10-30-2007, 02:49 PM

There is something impressive about going out and getting a W week in and week out. Pulling that Buffalo game off even with Romo throwing pick after pick is huge. Teams just don't win games when they lose the TO differential like that. Can't argue that Dallas has found ways to win while the Eagles have found ways to lose.

Also, not sure what the number is, but I think teams coming off a bye have been pretty solid so far this year.

The best bet is probably that JML keeps it rolling.:thumbs:

**dananderson32** · 10-30-2007, 03:16 PM

i like buff +1 over cincy this week for sure.....and waiting to see how high that indy/new eng line goes............and UDOGG why was i not invited to the wedding? :bang: :bang: .........tell me the church and ill be there!! :beerbang: :beerbang:

**Stifler's Mom** · 10-30-2007, 04:13 PM

I'm not sold on BUF as a fave, or this small of a dog yet....but CIN flat out stinks. They are one of the worst teams in the NFL, as evidenced by their 2-5 record and complete inability to stop anyone from scoring on them.

With that being said, my main problem with this game is BUF winning for 3 1/2 qtrs and giving up that late score or two to lose it, like they have been prone to doing the last few years, and/or CIN jumping out early and BUF being unable to catch up, since the BUF offense isn't exactly what you'd call explosive.

But CIN just stinks. Plain and simple. I said it before this year, and I'll say it again....I can't believe people still keep backing them. But then again, they have to win/cover eventually I guess.

This smells alot like a no play to me....I mean anyone could give a reason for playing either side of that game, and turn out to be right, but IMO it's probably just a guess that turned out to be correct.

I'd like if someone who is going to play on that game could provide some solid reasoning to back either side in that game, cause I can't find one. Maybe I'm missing something....either way.

Thanks :thumbs:

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 10-30-2007, 04:23 PM

Yeah...I'm laying off Buffalo for the first time in a while also...Cincy does blow hard, and I've loved fading them this year...but you're right, this totally feels like a game Cincy either hangs around and Palmer wins it late, or they completely win a blowout. Cincy has lost to NE, Pit & @ KC the past three losses...nothing to hang your head about really. They might be looking at this game as one they should win.

Buffalo was some great value this year because they were perceived as a bottom team b/c of their record, but they are a decent team that was getting way too many points against teams that were worse (Jets) or equal too (Ravens)....but I don't see any value this week, and as a Bills fan, I got a bad feeling about the outcome actually...

No play...or gun to my head...gulp....Cincy! :puke:

**Stifler's Mom** · 10-30-2007, 04:45 PM

I agree completely. I don't see how Cincy can be a road fave, but at the same time, I like getting points with BUF, not laying them, or getting basically a pick em....especially at home, because they play everyone tough at home, minus NE and PIT.

BUF is a tough team to figure out. NE and PIT hammer them every year for some reason, yet they seem to be able to compete with everyone else, even Indy last year, who they lost to by only 1 point on the road.

But yea, the Bills tendency to blow games late against a team who does have the ability to score pretty quick is what mainly scares me off that game. Not the fact that CIN is better than them and should just flat out beat them. That's just public perception IMO, as BUF has played a relatively tough schedule (minus the NYJ - which they swept), and has been competitive except against NE and PIT (imagine that).....and, who has been competitive against NE this year? No one....yet....except maybe the Browns who played them halfway tough.

Basically what stinks about the whole thing is that you have a team who is 2 points away from being 5-2, going against a 2-5 team, who, take away the SEA game, hasn't even really been competitive in their losses....unless you call giving up 51 to CLE and scoring 45 being competitive :laughing:

I think the line (and the early line movement) reflects that the linesmakers don't even really have a good grasp of what might happen in that game. When the pub jumped on CIN, they adjusted. Thinking there is sharp money on CIN on the road is a little far fetched IMHO....

Week 9 Discussion