JML Monday Night in Florida >>>

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  • JohnnyMapleLeaf
    Banned
    • Feb 2007
    • 8456

    JML Monday Night in Florida >>>

    Week 7 Sunday: 6-2, +11.72
    NFL YTD: 38-18, +59.78 Units



    Colts -3 -109 vs Jaguars - 2 Units
    Spent all day trying to convince myself to play Jax. Have been looking at this game for hours, and I can't do it even after looking at public numbers/home field/last years result.

    I have to go with my gut, and back Indy on this low number. Dungy is coming off a bye, and is getting 3 of his top 5 players back tonight (Addai/Harrison/Saunders). The passing game and the running game of Addai/Keith is scary. Manning is 4-0 ATS in his last 4 MNF games.

    I would call the defences pretty even, with a slight edge to Indy, but on the other side of the ball...Jax have really not been able to put up points besides the Hou game (where they ran all over the Texans)....with Jax only scoring 15 PPG in the other 4 games this year...and methinks they will not be able to score with the Colts in this one, unless turnovers come into play, so a FG seems OK to me. I think Indy really wants to make a statement in prime-time to tell the Pats that they are still the best team in the NFL, and might put a hurting on the Jags, who are a nice little team, but not in the same class as Indy.

    Enjoy the game, everyone :beerbang:
  • Touchdown
    Member
    • Sep 2007
    • 397

    #2
    GL JML...I am leaning toward the COLTS as well. I don't see how the Jax can cover.
    NFL = 13 – 8 – 1 ................................ + 8.5 Unit
    1st & 2nd Half = 5 – 3 – 0 .................. - 2.5 Unit

    CFB = 12– 6 – 1 ................................ + 12.5 Unit
    1st & 2nd Half = 0 – 1 – 0 ................... + 0.0 Unit

    Comment

    • Whaleydog
      Degenerate
      • Mar 2007
      • 874

      #3
      Nice Job this Week JML....GL tonight w/Colts.....I know its a public play....but the public cant lose them all...I am on the Colts as well :thumbs:

      Comment

      • bookiekilla
        Senior Member
        • Mar 2007
        • 3289

        #4
        hate to be against you tonight:bang:
        but as always..GL

        Comment

        • JohnnyMapleLeaf
          Banned
          • Feb 2007
          • 8456

          #5
          Thanks guys...we'll see what happens...I liked that Horfin was on Indy after the day he had. And you have to like being on the AFC team in a conference matchup!

          We'll see what happens...hopefully it's another good game like last night!

          Comment

          • Stifler's Mom
            Moderator
            • Feb 2007
            • 8541

            #6
            Originally posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf
            Thanks guys...we'll see what happens...I liked that Horfin was on Indy after the day he had. And you have to like being on the AFC team in a conference matchup!

            We'll see what happens...hopefully it's another good game like last night!
            :dunno:

            Aren't these both AFC teams?? :laughing:

            In any case, GL. You're having a great season :thumbs:

            Comment

            • JohnnyMapleLeaf
              Banned
              • Feb 2007
              • 8456

              #7
              Yup...lol, I was thinking of something else! lmao An AFC/MNF thing, and I forgot who they were playing!

              Comment

              • Horfin
                Moderator
                • Feb 2007
                • 5885

                #8
                Originally posted by Whaleydog
                Nice Job this Week JML....GL tonight w/Colts.....I know its a public play....but the public cant lose them all...I am on the Colts as well :thumbs:
                I think the public went 8-4 this weekend....could be wrong. Every-so-often they have good weeks.

                JML I hope you win....becuase if you win I win.

                IND plays games like this:
                Feel the team out in the first half...First half should be close. Indy pulls away in the 2nd half.

                Horfin:thumbs:
                a.d.

                2021 NHL: (through 02/24/2021)
                Sides: +17.4 units
                Totals: +0 units
                In Game (Not posted) -0.6 units
                Parlay: -1.8

                All 2021 NHL:+14.9 units

                Comment

                • Underdog88
                  I drink your milkshake!!!
                  • Mar 2007
                  • 13981

                  #9
                  GL JML, I agree completely :thumbs:
                  Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                  Comment

                  • Stifler's Mom
                    Moderator
                    • Feb 2007
                    • 8541

                    #10
                    In all reality, there weren't many games the public loaded up on this weekend one way or the other.

                    You really need to look for at least 65% or more to "fade" the public....or you're really not fading them, because there's no clear cut public choice.

                    3 games fell into that category this weekend:

                    Washington (68%) LOSS
                    Cincinnati (67%) WIN/PUSH (if you got the best line on NYJ of +7)
                    Pittsburgh (75%) LOSS

                    61% were on NE
                    64% were on NYG
                    64% were on KC

                    all of those won, but like I said, 60/40 or just a tad more isn't too strong of a public opinion.

                    Nothing else was even 60%.

                    The very best plays are 70% and more, but it seems to hold pretty true down to 65% more times than not. Below that, there's nothing to gain from fading a very slight public opinion of like 59% or 62% or something....

                    Comment

                    • JohnnyMapleLeaf
                      Banned
                      • Feb 2007
                      • 8456

                      #11
                      Not even a little bit close :thumbs:
                      Glad I went with my gut again.

                      Can't wait until NE/IND :beerbang:


                      Updating for Week 8:

                      Week 7: 7-2, +13.53
                      NFL YTD: 39-18, +61.59 Units
                      Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 10-22-2007, 10:48 PM.

                      Comment

                      • Touchdown
                        Member
                        • Sep 2007
                        • 397

                        #12
                        nice call man...you got it bro:beer2:
                        NFL = 13 – 8 – 1 ................................ + 8.5 Unit
                        1st & 2nd Half = 5 – 3 – 0 .................. - 2.5 Unit

                        CFB = 12– 6 – 1 ................................ + 12.5 Unit
                        1st & 2nd Half = 0 – 1 – 0 ................... + 0.0 Unit

                        Comment

                        • Underdog88
                          I drink your milkshake!!!
                          • Mar 2007
                          • 13981

                          #13
                          Colts + MNF= :beerbang:
                          Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                          Comment

                          • Low
                            Senior Green Member
                            • Mar 2007
                            • 2113

                            #14
                            COLTS :beerbang:

                            Comment

                            • Touchdown
                              Member
                              • Sep 2007
                              • 397

                              #15
                              :thumbs:

                              :beer2:
                              NFL = 13 – 8 – 1 ................................ + 8.5 Unit
                              1st & 2nd Half = 5 – 3 – 0 .................. - 2.5 Unit

                              CFB = 12– 6 – 1 ................................ + 12.5 Unit
                              1st & 2nd Half = 0 – 1 – 0 ................... + 0.0 Unit

                              Comment

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