***NFL Week 6 Discussion***

[homedawg]

a game mia can win... 3 games on the road for mia, and they lost all 3 games, by 3...
+200 shows value...:beer2:

[DevilsAdvokt]

here is another line question i have


titans line opens at +1.5

now is at +3


but 72% of the money is bet on titans? shouldnt the line be moving towards a pk'em instead of away?

[DevilsAdvokt]

a game mia can win... 3 games on the road for mia, and they lost all 3 games, by 3...
+200 shows value...:beer2:

so is that sharp money or public you are speaking of on miami?

[homedawg]

here is another line question i have


titans line opens at +1.5

now is at +3


but 72% of the money is bet on titans? shouldnt the line be moving towards a pk'em instead of away?

if, you can figure out which side the books are taking a stand on, in the long-run you will increase your chances of coming out a winner

[Skinsfan]

here is another line question i have


titans line opens at +1.5

now is at +3


but 72% of the money is bet on titans? shouldnt the line be moving towards a pk'em instead of away?

no because 72% of the MONEY is not on the titans

first of all, be very cautious with the numbers you get off the internet

2nd, realize the most of those numbers you get off the internet are not money % but number of bets %

big difference.... 9 guys bet team 1, and 1 guy bets team b.... each one of the 9 guys bets $100 and the 1 lone guy on team b bets 900.... the moeny is split 50/50 but the number you get off the internet will say 90% on team a

[homedawg]

so is that sharp money or public you are speaking of on miami?

that can be anyone's money... +200 would cover a cle -4.5 bet, and you still come out ahead, if the fins win... :beer2:

[DevilsAdvokt]

no because 72% of the MONEY is not on the titans

first of all, be very cautious with the numbers you get off the internet

2nd, realize the most of those numbers you get off the internet are not money % but number of bets %

big difference.... 9 guys bet team 1, and 1 guy bets team b.... each one of the 9 guys bets $100 and the 1 lone guy on team b bets 900.... the moeny is split 50/50 but the number you get off the internet will say 90% on team a

but if more bets were placed on titans still would mean public betting.... correct?

72% of bets taking on titans so most people aka public is riding them so than ur implying that by raising the titans to plus 3 istrying to get more public money on them to help them pay out the big bettors on the bucs because they are leaning to a bucs covering?

[Skinsfan]

but if more bets were placed on titans still would mean public betting.... correct?

72% of bets taking on titans so most people aka public is riding them so than ur implying that by raising the titans to plus 3 istrying to get more public money on them to help them pay out the big bettors on the bucs because they are leaning to a bucs covering?

if books truly seek even action, then you have to believe a rising line means more money has been coming in on the fav

[homedawg]

if books truly seek even action

IF? No they dont, on every game...:thumbs:

[homedawg]

Take a look at the hard hit games on sundays... The top 3 or 4 with most action..... SI shows the # of bets, those are usually the books BIG moneymakers...
:beer2:

[Skinsfan]

IF? No they dont, on every game...:thumbs:

Perhaps... OR, they just let the law of averages work in their favor.... some games they lose, some games they win, but with the vig it all averages out to a positive stream of income. Seriously, there is WAY more risk when books expose themselves to middles than just losing 1 lopsided game. Just another point of view... it's just math.... individual games really dont make any difference in the long run (with the possible exception of the super bowl). Not saying its right or wrong.... all i know for a fact is that no one here knows for sure either.

[Stifler's Mom]

here is another line question i have


titans line opens at +1.5

now is at +3


but 72% of the money is bet on titans? shouldnt the line be moving towards a pk'em instead of away?

Sharp money on TB....

[Stifler's Mom]

By the way, I agree with what Skins said there last.

The books don't give a crap who the public is loading up on, because the games the public loads up on lose more than they win. The books need less than 50% winners to profit on these games, considering they also collect vig (juice), unlike you or I who need more than 50% just to break even because unfortunately, we pay juice.

Sharp money moves lines....at least meaningful amounts.

Public all over TEN, and the line moves from TEN +1.5 to TEN +3?

Books now open to people buying TEN to +3.5, and taking the chance of being middled on TB -1.5 (sharp line), and TEN +3 or TEN +3.5 (public line) if the game lands on 2 or 3.

They moved it anyway.

Think about it....

[tdawgmd]

Sharp money on TB....

Pretty sure that's correct. Really feel like the Titans should be the fav if I was setting the line, so it's definitely fishy. Feel the same way about the Philly game.

[Daws1089]

I'm feeling carolina today.. No one seems to be giving them a chance. Their defense played well last week, granted it was against NO, but arizona without Boldin isnt very frightening either. I guess i might lay off of the side, but an under play might be in store.