***NFL Week 6 Discussion***

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

No way I can get near that Seattle game. Like you said...Sea great at home...but 7 is ripe for a NO team that cant stink it out every week, can they? Somthing has happened to Brees? Seattle is another team, that I never know what will happen. I can gurantee flm will be on them though! lol.


:puke: Sea/NO

[DevilsAdvokt]

All I see is +6.5's (at -110) and one +7 (at -115).

Are you seeing the +7.5 at -110, or is it like -130?

oh gotcha my bad i just scanned over it fast

5dimes has it

+7.5 -135

+7 -120





normally their top line is the run line and usually is set at -110 or -115

[Q-Unit]

Sun 10/14 225 New England Patriots -4 -109
01:15 PM 226 Dallas Cowboys +4 +101

Here you go money already pouring in on NE. I know there were people standing there this morning waiting to play NE over cowboys bad playing at BUF.

The winner of this game will win by 3 or less or the Cowboys will blow them out. It will not be a NE blow out.

Take the cowboys.

Unless this changes from now until Sunday. I will keep ya posted on where the money is going. Play againist the public and you will cash in.

hear hear!

this was harped on by the nincompoops at ESPN, that the Boys played nobody, but still, I don't care what anyone says, who the fck have the Patriots played?

they have won handily, they are a GREAT team, but but but they are not infallible.

other than Adalius Thomas, they still have slow un-athletic linebackers, non of the opponents (a combined 7-17!!) seemed to produce a consistent pass rush on "my baby's daddy" Brady. The run game is spearheaded recently by Sam Morris?!?! He's from Texas Tech :puke: , thats all you need to know, and Buffalo and Miami didnt want him , so all of a sudden he's a pro-bowler going up against the likes of CIN and CLE? granted a two headed attack of Maroney and Morris will be substantially better but please. I will type this until I am blue in the face, or blue in my fingers I should say, the Pats have played NO ONE. they blew them out of the water because they are a GREAT team, not a PERFECT team (ahem Tony Blowheiser)

As for the Cowboys, they have their own problems, by no means are they an elite team IMHonestO! But their problems are fixable.

1) their D was stout, getting better as the year wears on, already halfway there

2) they passed 50 times last night. Not gonna happen again unless they want to hand the game to NE. Look for a more balanced attack next week

3) Specials Teams, was and always will be an Achilles heal this year. I dunno how to fix special teams, but i figure actually tackling and filling holes in coverage would be a good start!

and finally this can't be backed up numerically cuz I have no clue, but in my experience, as the Cowboys are like the Yankees and Lakers, and almost always will be favored, I have found that with the Boys, when they are given points. It's veerrrry dangerous to fade them.

yes this is a homer opinion, but I try to look at it objectively, this led me to last night taking the bills +10, as I didnt think the boys should be taking 10 on the road vs. anyone! take it with a saltshaker.

I have personally done better than OK taking the points with them. just my twenty cents :sm:



oh and I like Atlanta against NYGiants, cuz though the Falcons suck, they have been playing a lot more solid IMO, and its almost that time of year for the Giants to start imploding. no?

[Furashu]

ARI What about the ARI play? -3.5 That hook shouldnt worry anyone because the panthers have problems at QB, they looked dreadful vs the saints defense, and the panthers 3 wins are off STL, ATL, NO all bad teams which their greatest margin of victory was 7 in the 27-20 victory over STL. Cardinals on the other hand have beaten PITTS, SEA, STL. Though they did give up 31 to STL, GUS+Holt > Carr+S.Smith(smith had about 2 receptions) Cards should open up quickly with warner at the helm 100% of the time and hold onto the lead. I think the only reason the cards are by -3.5 is because the panthers are 3-2 and s.smith is on their side, but they arent the same team everyone WANTS them to be. CAR has also only covered twice vs ATL(well not for all on this one) and STL.

i think u should fade ZONA though, forgot their defense fell apart in the 4th and almost lost the game vs STL

STL I love STL this week. Although theyve layed about 5 eggs(well not last week ATS), +9.5 is beautiful. Ravens havent covered when they were favorites once this year, and they couldnt even manage to cover vs the DILFER controlled 49ers... Gus brings some new life to STL since he has ribs and all, but he lookd pretty good vs ARI and the BAL defense isnt the same. BAL defense has given up 27,13,23,27, and 7. Maybe BAL wins by 3 or 6 but i just cant see it being by 10.

just my 2 cents

[HoosierDaddy]

New England is now up to -5 on 5dimes, and I'd imagine it may reach a touchdown by week's end.

I think right now, it's very difficult to make a case against New England, regardless of the situation and believe me, I'm not a Pats fan. Some quick thoughts:

1. In my mind, I think the disparity between the AFC and NFC is still pretty wide. I realize this isn't a particularly great method of picking games, but it's just my first thought at this point.

2. Going on the road is NOT a big deal for New England. Hell, call me crazy, but I think they actually get up a little more for the road games at this point.

3. I've seen Belichick devise so many schemes to rattle top quarterbacks over the last 6 years that I have to believe he will find a way to make life miserable for Romo. I touched upon it yesterday, and it was harped on by the announcers, that if you keep Romo in the pocket, he'll usually find a way to throw some picks.

4. I realize the addition of Newman is key, but I still see the Dallas D struggling on that fast carpet against Moss/Welker/Stallworth etc.

5. I usually don't like to get into the mental aspect of it, but I have to imagine Dallas is still on a bit of a cloud 9 after stealing one last night. That, coupled with the short prep week, could cause some issues.

Finally, and again I'm not a New England guy, but I believe they are SCARY GOOD. To me, New England and Indianapolis remind me of the Dallas/San Fran combo in the early 90s, where you basically knew one of them would win the SB.

Basically, I just see Belichick giving Romo absolute fits on Sunday. That said, I may not even play this game as 5 is a screwy number.

[HoosierDaddy]

I STRONGLY disagree about the "phantom" setup idea.

There are concrete reasons why the books persuade the public to play on one side or the other.

The main one being because they know they are going to take sharp money one one side, so they need the public money to balance it out.

Look at it this way, if they don't get the sharp money, the public is wrong often enough that they will still make money by the fact that the heavy public plays lose far more often than they win.

If they don't get the public money though, they'll get killed, with sharp players playing much larger, and winning more than they lose....therefore they NEED to hold the puppet strings of the public and "set them up" in spots where they will lose much more often than they will win.

This holds true in the NFL more-so than any other sport, because obviously NFL is the one sport just about EVERYONE bets on, and is a huge money maker for the bookies.

Need evidence?

Saints -3.5 - 68% (loss)
Tennessee -8 - 62% (loss)
Houston -5 (or so) - 63% (loss)
Arizona -3.5 (or -3 if you were lucky) - 68% (loss or push)
NY Giants -3.5 - 74% (win)
San Diego pk - 69% (win)
Baltimore -3.5 - 74% (loss)
Green Bay -3.5 - 70% (loss)
Dallas -10.5 - 81% (loss)

So 2-6 not counting Arizona/STL. 2-7 if you got -3.5 with Ariz, which I think most did unless you bought and/or pain a ridiculous amount of juice for the -3.

This holds true just about every week. The public did ok in weeks 1 and 3, but got beat (badly) in weeks 2, 4 and 5.

The public was (give or take 1 or 2 games that pushed/won/lost depending on when you got the line) 15-22 on such games so far this year. They are now about 17-28 (if you count AZ/STL as a push), 17-29 if you don't.

The public doing well in weeks 1 and 3 stands to reason, because the oddsmakers haven't "caught up" yet. Once they get a handle on what each team is really all about, the public getting pounded is pretty much par for the course in the NFL most weeks.

Point is, the books know what they're doing, and those who say the lines are not ever released either to persuade public money to a certain side (GB) because they know the sharps will play the other one (CHI), or in the favor of Team A (Buffalo) because they know the public will pound Team B (Dallas) at any price are just wrong.

That's the basic principle of there being a point spread in the first place....to get even action for the books. If it wasn't, why even bother releasing one? It's just that not many think outside the lines, or about what goes on "behind the scenes", and try to figure out why the line was released at what it was. They just take the line at face value.

I have found it very profitable to try and figure out why the line is where it is and go from there, more so than to work with a line and figure out if Team A or Team B is going to cover it. The books will tell you who they think is going to cover if you just know how and where to look to figure it out, and they ARE right much more often than not.

For that reason, to sit there and try to pick which 2 or 3 out of 9 or 10 public darlings are going to cover and the public is going to be correct over the books/sharps just isn't profitable in the long run IMO.

Good read:thumbs:

[Underdog88]

I do agree though, that this week is a winnable game for the Aints....

I hadn't thought much about that game, but now I might take a look at the Aints this week....as I think SEA is going to pretty much be ATS hell all season, and the Aints are about as low as you can get right now....which is normally the best time to jump on board, cause there line is in your favor, and there's nowhere to go but up.

I think this is a situation where most will be looking for Seattle to bounce back big.... but a Saints win is possible. This line is screaming for Seahawks money IMO. The Saints have lost by 31 @ Indy, 17 @TB, 17 at home to the Titans, & by 3 to a bad Carolina team (or at least nowhere near as good as years past). Tell me why the line shouldn't come out -8.5 here? If vegas thought a home blowout was likely, don't you think they would make the bettor eat a little more chalk than 7?

For the last couple years I've done fairly well fading the Hawks on the road & betting them at home. I stayed away from the SF matchup because of SF's lack of offense, & stupidly left Pitt off my card last week though i liked them. I am not impressed with the Seahawks defense at all this season. They get a decent pass rush, but also give up a ton of yards. Take away the SF game & look at the last 3 vs. competent offenses.

The Steelers rushed for 163 vs them (4 ypc). Big Ben was 18-22 206 1td. I won't put too much stock on this as Seattle was definitely in a bad spot froma situational standpoint.

@ home vs. Cincy- Seattle's D gave up 412 yards! 328 through the air/84 rushing. 4 turnovers there is the only reason Seattle escaped with a win.

@ Arizona- 431 yards allowed! Zona averaged 5.1 ypc & they threw for 299.


The Saints have been a disappointment so far this season, but they are a high powered offense. Too much talent on that team IMO to not find the endzone sooner or later. Brees will have no choice but to air it out, & Cincy/Zona both faired well doing so vs. the Hawks. NO D i9s awful, but they did hold the Panthers to 243 total yards.

One thing I think that could be overlooked is the retirement of Mack Strong. Aside from the great O-line Alexander had, you can thank Mack for all those big seasons. Behind every great rb is a damn good FB (Lorenzo Neal, Tony Richardson. Daryl Johnston, etc). I think Mack's retirement could be a huge loss for Seattle. Also, Branch is day to day with a sprained right foot.... Could be a nice spot for the Saints, when everyone has given up on them :thumbs:

[Ming the Merciless]

TEN/TB

NE/DAL is interesting. Problem is Dallas is once again in a piss poor spot, off an emotional MNF win, having to play an always well prepared team....and one who is probably better than them, on a short week.

DAL has homefield though, and NE is IMO STILL untested.

I'll be rooting for DAL, but I don't know if they get my money come Sunday.

ATL IMO wins outright on MNF. I absolutely love ATL +3.5, and it is probably my favorite play of the weekend. This is the letdown game for NYG, and the one in which they get exposed as being overrated, not the game last week against "Noodle Arm the Jets"

KC +3 Bungles have lost 6 of their last 7 games (dating back to last season), have not much defense and really ****ty special teams, and yet again they're a road fave with Joe Pub backing them at 90%, LOL. When is Joe Q going to wise up and stop putting themselves in losing situations with CIN?

OAK +10 is a joke too. No way that line should be over a TD. Just because SD beat one of the worst teams in football (DEN), now all of a sudden they're supposed to be shellacking everyone again? Doubtful. This one goes down to the wire IMO, and an OAK outright win certainly isn't out of the question with the way they're rushing the football (190+ YPG), and that they have a quality defense. Only way SD covers this line is a ton of OAK turnovers.

Other notes of interest. I find it hilarious how the public has fallen in love with Arizona this year, when you couldn't find a f'n public sole to back them for like the last 10 years. With that being said, they're probably right this week. CAR sucks bad, and I sure don't see them pulling the outright win on the road 2 weeks in a row. I might join Joe Q on this one, and really, they're only at 61%, which isn't bad. It's just odd to see the public ON Arizona 2 weeks in a row.

And the Browns? WTF? A -4.5 fave? LOL. Might not play Miami, (only because I don't necessarily care for the spot they're in this week) but how the heck could someone lay -4.5 with the Browns? That game is screaming no play IMO.

And WTF with Washington/GB? Joe Pub is all over WASH +3 (68%). How quickly they give up on Favre I guess. I wouldn't be shocked to see more GB backers file in as the week goes on though, and I'm not completely sold on either side of that game....yet. More research needed. I was just noting how Joe Pub jumps off the bandwagon (or on in some cases) so easily.

Lovin GB. Who did Skins just beat? DET? LOL I'm glad pub all pver Skins. Sorry Skinsfan and gamblinman! Love Dallas! I remember when Cowgirls beat manning either last year or the year before. Just need to get a sack or some pass rush and Peyton will be just like Romo this week.

[Underdog88]

Minny at Chicago....Bears get one win last week (with the help from Packer turnovers), and now lay 6? Looking at Minny, but not in love. Still don't believe the Bears are back however, and any play would be the Vikings.

I'm so pissed that the Bears are playing the Vikings this week. Any halfway decent team & I'm all over the Bears fade, but damn it just has to be the Vikings. In the GB game the Bears showed me nothing, except that they can win when they get gimme turnovers. The offense is still putrid, the D is still banged up & overrated. Even GB's non-existant run game moved the ball vs. Chicago, Minny should do the same. You know the Bears won't be able to run the ball vs Minny (league best 2.5 ypc allowed 62 ypg). I just don't know if the Vikings have a good enough passing game to keep the Bears from throwing 8 in the box. Nice angle going here though, as the Bears won su last week as a dog & are now favored.....

[Underdog88]

ARI What about the ARI play? -3.5 That hook shouldnt worry anyone

i think u should fade ZONA though, forgot their defense fell apart in the 4th and almost lost the game vs STL

Look at you! 1 day & you're already using lingo like Hook & Fade! Our little Furashu is growing before our eyes :beer2:


Good points about Zona, I think they win this game, but to me there's just something wrong with playing Zona as a fave. Even so, Carolina is not a good team IMO, & Carr at the helm only makes things worse...

[Reznor]

5. I usually don't like to get into the mental aspect of it, but I have to imagine Dallas is still on a bit of a cloud 9 after stealing one last night. That, coupled with the short prep week, could cause some issues.

Apparently the cowgirls are having two weeks to prepare for the Pats since they didn't prepare for the Bills last week. :boog:

[Reznor]

Cowgirls already +6 on Bodog

[BlazerAndy]

Hatriots will cover that in the 1stQtr am I missing something? I had an extra beer tonight.

[BlazerAndy]

Cowgirls down to Plus 5.

[yukoncornelius]

Hoosierdaddy pretty much hit it as far as I'm concerned. Being on the road for New England really does not evne seem to phase them. They are extremely focused right now, and also very confident (but not to the point where they will take a game lightly).

AFC/NFC disparity, yes. The point about NE winning by 3 or dallas blowing them out is bullocks... I'll be out of my mind if Dallas blows them out. I hate new england, like hoosierdaddy (probably cause of the colts :p )... but I am pretty confident about NE winning by a touchdown. Dallas is a very good team, but as seen last night, they can break down mentally (and should've lost). If Dallas turns the ball over against NE as much as they did against Buffalo,its going to be a lonnnnnng night for them.