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Let me also add that Detroits passing offense may have been #1 in the league before Sunday but that is very skewed. The Philly game where they trailed by atleast 21 for the whole game they off course did nothing but pass. So Kitna racked up the yards. Also they have absolutely no running game. Havn't all year and havn't since Barry retired
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If GB cant run the football like Detroit couldnt, the Redskins will go into GB and win that football game. GB is a pass first team like Detroit and we all saw what the Redskins defense did to them. Coming into their last game, GB had the worst rushing yards in the entire league. Now they did improve vs Chicago but if they cant put up a better effort against the Skins, I dont see them winning.
I am hoping Favre forces a couple of those deep passes into the hands of Sean Taylor and LaRon Landry.NCAAF: 50-39-5 (+6.35 units)
NFL: 36-35-6 (-2.00 units)
NHL: 4-8-0 (-2.80 units)
NCAAB: 7-4 (+1.75 units)Comment
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I STRONGLY disagree about the "phantom" setup idea.
There are concrete reasons why the books persuade the public to play on one side or the other.
The main one being because they know they are going to take sharp money one one side, so they need the public money to balance it out.
Look at it this way, if they don't get the sharp money, the public is wrong often enough that they will still make money by the fact that the heavy public plays lose far more often than they win.
If they don't get the public money though, they'll get killed, with sharp players playing much larger, and winning more than they lose....therefore they NEED to hold the puppet strings of the public and "set them up" in spots where they will lose much more often than they will win.
This holds true in the NFL more-so than any other sport, because obviously NFL is the one sport just about EVERYONE bets on, and is a huge money maker for the bookies.
Need evidence?
Saints -3.5 - 68% (loss)
Tennessee -8 - 62% (loss)
Houston -5 (or so) - 63% (loss)
Arizona -3.5 (or -3 if you were lucky) - 68% (loss or push)
NY Giants -3.5 - 74% (win)
San Diego pk - 69% (win)
Baltimore -3.5 - 74% (loss)
Green Bay -3.5 - 70% (loss)
Dallas -10.5 - 81% (loss)
So 2-6 not counting Arizona/STL. 2-7 if you got -3.5 with Ariz, which I think most did unless you bought and/or pain a ridiculous amount of juice for the -3.
This holds true just about every week. The public did ok in weeks 1 and 3, but got beat (badly) in weeks 2, 4 and 5.
The public was (give or take 1 or 2 games that pushed/won/lost depending on when you got the line) 15-22 on such games so far this year. They are now about 17-28 (if you count AZ/STL as a push), 17-29 if you don't.
The public doing well in weeks 1 and 3 stands to reason, because the oddsmakers haven't "caught up" yet. Once they get a handle on what each team is really all about, the public getting pounded is pretty much par for the course in the NFL most weeks.
Point is, the books know what they're doing, and those who say the lines are not ever released either to persuade public money to a certain side (GB) because they know the sharps will play the other one (CHI), or in the favor of Team A (Buffalo) because they know the public will pound Team B (Dallas) at any price are just wrong.
That's the basic principle of there being a point spread in the first place....to get even action for the books. If it wasn't, why even bother releasing one? It's just that not many think outside the lines, or about what goes on "behind the scenes", and try to figure out why the line was released at what it was. They just take the line at face value.
I have found it very profitable to try and figure out why the line is where it is and go from there, more so than to work with a line and figure out if Team A or Team B is going to cover it. The books will tell you who they think is going to cover if you just know how and where to look to figure it out, and they ARE right much more often than not.
For that reason, to sit there and try to pick which 2 or 3 out of 9 or 10 public darlings are going to cover and the public is going to be correct over the books/sharps just isn't profitable in the long run IMO.Last edited by Stifler's Mom; 10-09-2007, 01:23 PM.Comment
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Yeah....thanks Stif...I understand that, you make alot of sense with that info, as I've heard it many times before...and I agree with everything you say actually....I just don't listen to it! LMAO! I guess I didn't mean "phantom". Because it does ring true most of the time, like you say. I just like to cap games on who I think will win. Dog or fav. Public or otherwise. That's what makes it FUN for me. Especially when I'm killing like this year. I think Tenn will win the game. I will put $200 on it because I think that way. Simple as that to me. lol. I understand with your theories, this is how the books make billions. I understand that. But not off me. lol. I haven't been down in any sport, at the end of a season in years (save the odd couple units in CFB, which I dont cap). I guess, because it is not my job, and I don't lose any money (in fact I win a couple grand per year) ...capping a game with stats, players and coaches makes it my enjoyment as a hobby. I'll let guys like you to worry about the other stuff, and help me out with my square plays. lol! that's why this place is here afterall...sharing info. With guys like you, and guys who only use game info. Hey, both can't hurt! I want everyone here to win. But my plays are usually half square, half otherwise...it doesn't matter to me.
OK.. now that you'ev made me look like an ass....on to other games...lol
Minny at Chicago....Bears get one win last week (with the help from Packer turnovers), and now lay 6? Looking at Minny, but not in love. Still don't believe the Bears are back however, and any play would be the Vikings.
Philly at Jets....what a mess. Is there a more heckle-Jeckle team that Philly? Birds...what happens with them this week?? The Jets, and as Stif says..noodle-arm, are so bad!
NE/DAL....I see it's to 5 already, and climbing....I have no idea what to do there...but you have to figure Romo bounces back at home...might bite on the cowboys if it gets any higher...Last edited by JohnnyMapleLeaf; 10-09-2007, 01:55 PM.Comment
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Great discussion
ive been sitting here wondering how greenbay is gonna be this week and how favre will do with out his center this week who is out due to a broken eye... as far as i have seen they dont have a back up center on their roster, which would have to move an offensive lineman over and start practicing snap counts this week with favre...
good thing for green bay is they are at home so crowd noise will be in their favor and they wont get as many full start penalties this week as if they would be playing in washington with a new center at the helm...
more i look at this game i am come to a feeling that i am gonna see alot more running the football by greenbay and washing runs enough already... i see the punts and the clock rolling early. most of the time when i feel a ball control type game i tend to take the dog with the points....
seattle and new orleans game----
seahawks laying 7 1/2 points Branch is out for 2 weeks matt strong retires...
shawn alexander wasnt doing much this year with strong i cant see him doing better with him gone now... +7.5 points is alot to be giving to a winless team. when your team is injured all over the board... i think public will be riding the pacific northwest this week and so in that i will wait in hope to get more points and a bigger ml....
how about them eagles going into new york getting man handled and than going home for a week to think about it and than getting back on plane to go right back to new york...
see the eagles going 0-2 this year in new york or maybe eagles get some turn overs and get some good field position and squeze a touchdown and 2 field goals win 13-7?Comment
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LOL, not trying to make anyone look like an ass. I have realized I come off that way sometimes, but i don't mean to. It's hard to make a point over the computer.
I guess it stems from people who continue to say fading the public is a myth, and it's not a way to win. It isn't, and it is.
Good cappers (which you certainly are) know when to avoid the public play, AND when to avoid the square play (when the public might be right).
I agree, that:
#1, there is no "correct" method of handicapping....there are many. The thing is that there are many more "incorrect" ones, and those are, of course, the ones used by the general public.
#2. You gotta do what you think is right.
I don't like to see guys who are winners on the opposite of my potential plays....but, like everyone else, I gotta do what I feel is right.
I guess I try to help too much and get carried away with my thoughts sometimes, lolComment
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correction eyesocket my bad
you can break your eye with attachment 87:thumbs:Comment
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I do agree though, that this week is a winnable game for the Aints....
The problem I'm having is that Seattle doesn't lose at home too often.
The problem I'm having with that, is that Seattle used to be good, hence not many home losses.
Hmmmm....
I'd like N.O. more if they were getting +7.5, and usually when you say that, they're a good play even at +6.5....since there's a reason they're NOT +7.5.
I hadn't thought much about that game, but now I might take a look at the Aints this week....as I think SEA is going to pretty much be ATS hell all season, and the Aints are about as low as you can get right now....which is normally the best time to jump on board, cause there line is in your favor, and there's nowhere to go but up.Comment
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Even as a guy who is not afraid to back a huge public play, I would agree that fading the public is always generally a good idea...even if I don't do it. It only makes sense.
I do think your second statement is bang on...and that's what I try and do. Just be on the right side, "public" or not. lol.Comment
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All I see is +6.5's (at -110) and one +7 (at -115).
Are you seeing the +7.5 at -110, or is it like -130?Comment
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