***Week 5 Discussion***

[DevilsAdvokt]

QUICK AND BRISK early leans.....


chiefs +2

Redskins -3 1/2

Giants -3 1/2

Buccaneers +12

-----------------------------------

if warner gets to start:
cardinals -3 1/2

if alex smith is out:
Ravens -3 1/2

other wise these 2 no play

[COACH DITKA]

Yeah...SD seems in trouble...I just think SD runs up and down on them all day, and at a pick'em, I like the chances of a close win. The Bolts have the running game with LT, and Denver is absolutely terrible against the run. I see SD keeping it simple, and getting it done. There's no way they should be down, or "quitting" IMO...and I hope the coaches drill that into them, because with the division they are in....3 weak teams ahead of them by one game at 2-2? Please. Plenty of time to turn it around and win that division, easily. 4 Games does not a season make...especially in the weakest division in the NFL.

I was at Denver game in Indy this past weekend w/brother-in-law and sister (he is huge Bronco fan and had extra ticket) and the other Bronco fans from the Orange Mane. Anyways, that is neither here nor there. Denver just sat back in their Cover 2 all day and basically played 11 vs 9. This was somewhat understood w/Manning to Harrison and Wayne lurking but not acceptable when you put absolutely no pressure on the QB. I don't think Manning was touched the whole game. Also, Henry is banged up and Denver got nothing from their WRs on Sunday either. Until I would look into this game more or something major develops, this is one I'd stay away for as anything can happen w/this struggling squads.


Moose

[BlazerAndy]

I'd take the Ravens over the 49ers.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'd take the Ravens over the 49ers.

OK.

[Underdog88]

I'm looking at the Chargers to (finally?) have a good performance, and get the win as a slight dog in Denver...two struggling teams, but SD has more talent...and with LT, I think they get it done against Denver's horrible, horrible run defence (181 yds p/g!).

I think SD rolls in this game. Denver has been a horrible wager to make at home for quite some time now. Here's the last 8 results for them at home...

-3.5 vs. Jax------>L 23-14

-9.5 vs. Oak---------->W 23-20

favored vs. SF-------->L 26-23

-3 vs. Cincy---------->W 24-23

-4 vs. Sea.----------->L 23-20

-3 vs. SD-------------->L 35-27

-3 vs. Indy------------>L 34-31

-14 vs Oak------------>W 13-3

So in their last 8 home games, they are 3-5 su & 0-8 ATS! So much for homefield advantage. I would be surprised if LT didn't get 30 carries in this game...

[Underdog88]

The Ravens just aren't very good from what I've seen. Their D isn't doing crapola, and their O is probably worse. They should not be a road fave against anyone right now. Neither is SF any good, but Dilfer with a week to prepare brings more to the table than Alex Smith IMO, who hasn't done jack **** since entering the NFL.

I don't know Stif- despite Baltimore's loss this week, I would give the Ravens the edge on both offense & defense. Baltimore gained 418 total yards vs the Browns, but couldn't find the endzone. McNair with 53 pass attempts? WTF! They had 381 vs Zona, 303 vs the Jets, & 329 vs Cincy. SF mustered 184 total yards vs. Seattle, 289 vs. Pitt, 186 vs. STL, & 194 vs. Zona! Granted they have faced 2 good defenses b2b, but 186 vs. the Rams? While Dilfer at qb may be an upgrade, I just don't think SF has the offense to move the ball consistently vs. anyone right now. I think the Raven's slow start has a lot to do with their injuries. Ogden missing a couple games is a pretty big deal, but despite that Willis is starting to run well (that bastard). Defensively, they have missed Rolle bigtime, as well as Pryce on the defensive line. I would think Rolle & Ogden both play this week. Last year the Ravens started off rather slow, & after b2b losses @ Denver & vs. Carolina, they went on the road & beat the then-hot Saints pretty convincingly. IMO this is a team that could easily be 3-1, & SF just isn't as good as advertised this season...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I think SD rolls in this game. Denver has been a horrible wager to make at home for quite some time now. Here's the last 8 results for them at home...

So in their last 8 home games, they are 3-5 su & 0-8 ATS! So much for homefield advantage. I would be surprised if LT didn't get 30 carries in this game...

Couldn't agree more....I cashed that Oakland game in Denver this year (When they actually won outright, then lost lol) ...partly because of Denver's lack of home field covers. And now, when one of the best rushing teams of recent memory plays the worst run defence...I like my chances. I think the whole "SD giving up" thing is bull****....its 4 games in, they are 1 game back, big ******* deal... SD is still in that division, they are professionals, and are one good game from being hailed as contenders again... I think they might put a licking on Denver actually...already played the + ML.


Ineteresting take on Balt/SF, UD! Good stuff!. Might be a no-play for me...haven't backed SF all year (thank god!)...and what have they shown for me to start now? Exactly. Don't like Baltimore laying points either though...no play most likely.

:thumbs:

[Underdog88]

I don't know how you can like the Jets on the ML. I must be missing something there that you're seeing. They suck.

It's funny to me how quickly public opinion changed about the Giants. NYG off 2 wins as dogs & now favored & backed by the public? I've been on the Giants ml the past 2 weeks, but IMO it's a very winable game for the Jets. Did they really play that well against the Eagles, or did the Eagles just play that bad? I think the NYG offense didn't play well at all- 3-11 on 3rd down, just 129 yards passing. The Eagles piss poor pass protection made the Giants look better than they are defensively. The Giants are still allowing 5.2 ypc on the ground, & if the Jets establish the run, Chad can work the play-action. Yes he has a noodle arm, but IMO is one of the better qbs off play action. Both Romo & Favre ate the Giants D alive, & I think the Jets will move the ball too. +165 looks pretty good for a *Homedog*

[Angelus]

How did I miss the Browns getting +17? I probably have to play that one. I know I sound like a broken record here, but once again, the Brownies will be the best team NE has played so far.

I do realize NE isn't a fluke, but on the same hand, they can't blow everyone out, can they? I sure as hell don't expect an outright CLE win, but +17 is a ton of points to give a team that's looked pretty good. I can't see for a minute how that line isn't in their favor.

I don't want to come off sounding like a jackass here...especially since I rarely post in this forum...but how many times this year have you bet against NE? And how many times have you won that bet? :glass:

GL if you play it though!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

No way am I getting near that battle of New Jersey....that makes my head spin. :nuts:

[Underdog88]

*Bulger out for game vs. Zona*

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

*Bulger out for game vs. Zona*

Gus Ferotte? lol. :beer2:

[bookiekilla]

Gus Ferotte? lol. :beer2:

ok...i think Zona is probably going to be a play for me now...gus ferotte..lol!!

[Stifler's Mom]

I don't want to come off sounding like a jackass here...especially since I rarely post in this forum...but how many times this year have you bet against NE? And how many times have you won that bet? :glass:

GL if you play it though!

Now seriously, is NE going to go 16-0 ATS?

Obviously week 1 the line was soft at NYJ, considering NYJ is far worse than advertised this year. NE hammers them, but, they didn't they just lose to Buffalo's 2nd stringers? Yep, the Jets are bad.

Week 2, NE blasts SD and looks like heroes, but wait, SD is 1-3 and going nowhere but backwards until proven otherwise. They just got pounded by KC at home. They gave up 30 points to a team who was averaging 9 points a game!! NE dropping 38 on them is less impressive after that IMO. On top of it, LT doesn't wanna play because he's still pissed Marty got fired, and Rivers is starting to look like the greenhorn he is now that he has to do more than dump it off to LT.

Then in week 3 BUF is forced to throw Edwards to the dogs because of a cheap shot on JP on the first play of the game. They never had a shot. Plus NE always shellacks BUF. My Bills aren't in the same class.

Now in week 4 NE beats up on CIN. They looked great, and dominated the game. But, CIN is 1-3 and I believe 1-6 in their last 7. Maybe I over estimated them?

NE is good, but each week they cover, the line will move more and more against their chances of covering, until it gets to the point where they will be a piss poor ATS team (like Indy on the road)....and once it gets there, it'll never come back because Joe Pub will keep backing them (like Indy on the road). Laying 17 points to a team who has shown the ability to score the way Cleveland has this year?

On top of it, they've had a short week to prepare coming off a big MNF road game, and they have a game @ undefeated Dallas on deck. I realize NE is well coached, but it's not hard to see they are not in the best of spots this weekend to blow someone's doors off.

This year's NE team is the first EVER, in the history of the NFL, to open the season beating 4 straight teams by 20 points. Now basically they're expected to do it a 5th time, when no team has ever done it even 4 times before in the history of the league?

I highly doubt this NE team is the best ever in the entire history of the NFL, and I'm not looking for the SU win, just for the Brownies to keep it within 17 points. Just playing the odds....

[Daws1089]

well said stif.