question regarding lines

[Kevin]

BTW,

I am glad to see your eyeballing dogs hodown.

I think the public is in for a real fricken bloodbath this week. These lines are nasty.

[Fish2006]

Stif makes astute points all the way around.

Fish, that half point buy on the golden gophers last week wasn't an astute recommendation. It was a we're drunk in Vegas, I could see that game landing around 14, dont get caught on the wrong side, oh and you can afford the extra ten bucks to lay lol.

If I was gonna do this right and be super stingy and try to be as sharp as possible, I would lay -3 never buying a half point and on any dogs +2.5 or less down to a pickem I would play the moneyline.

I believe thats what true sharps do.

lol - I was so drunk last weekend I would have bought the half-point on the breakfast buffet if they offered it!

Thanks for the clarification Kevin - maybe there should be an article on the site about the perils of buying the half-point, if there isn't already.

[yomonte]

In week one, two games opened withnfav's at -2 1/2. One moved to 3. Both fav's covered open and close. There has not been one game where the team did not cover open and closing lines. An exception for week three where I was out of town and did not record closing lines could have been Min@KC, Cle@Oak, Cin@Sea, Indy@Hou, Mia@NYJ where 3 pushed opening. Hopefully Stif can send me the closing lines from SI cause those were the only games that came into play on open and close. Lines of 2 1/2 or less, the fav is 4-1 with three being home fav's. An away dog covered a line of 1 1/2. The under was 3-2 in those events. Doesn't look like a buy is in order and past history has been the same. Sure it will come into effect, but rare.

There is alot of good info in this thread. Grab a couple of beers and a doob and do yourself a favor LOL