New England/Cincinnati Line

[Skinsfan]

Stif i disagree... the NFL is not a transitive league... maybe college is, but not the nfl.... the nfl is a week to week league... any one team can beat any other team.... blowing out 3 teams in a row is damn impressive, i don't care who you are playing.... the fact that SD lost yesterday doesn't in any way change the Pats win over SD. No team is the same week to week. That being said....


i kind of like the bengals tonight with the points

[yukoncornelius]

This is really a great thread, Stiffler is making some damn good points.

On the subject of parlays, believe it or not last year I hit a 10 team nfl parlay (only a couple were spreads though)..and half of them were pretty good faves. Needless to say, it was the single best day of my wagering life haha.

The more I think about it, the more I want to take cincy and the over, and going against NE is a hard thing to do at this point. Seems BETUS doesn't want to get off 7.5 Cincy is +105 with the spread.

[homedawg]

This is what results in a 70%-30% split on the Pats.................

This weekend:
Joe Public: "There is no way SD loses to KC"
Joe Public: "There is no way Chi loses to Detroit, Detroit just allowed 50+ pts to Philly and finally Grossman is out of there."
Joe Public: "There is no way NYG hangs with Philadelphia...Phil just layed a big one on Detroit."
Joe Public: "Buffalo is all banged up they can not possibly stay with the Jets."
Joe Public: "Cleveland cant stay with a McNair led Baltimore team"
Joe Public: "Favre sucks in Domes"
Joe Public: "Carolina is much better than TB and TB got lucky last two against a bad NO team."
Joe Public: "Pittsburgh has destroyed the last three teams it has played and Arizona has had a hard time with all of its opponents...I don't care that Pitt is on the road..."

Look long and hard at that last one. I mean really long and hard.

Horfin

:th: Here's another: There is no way in hell, Appalachian State, beats Michigan

:hide:

[Reznor]

I don't know how true this is but I read on another board that in the NFL that 83% of the straight up winners cover the spread. Yesterday all of the game winners covered the spread. I don't know if that makes me want to pick NE or Cin because the laws of averages has to be in favor of the Bengals tonight right? I haven't made my bet yet and I'm more confused than ever but I'm still leaning to the Pats being able to stop the Bengals two more times than the Bengals will be stopped. That doesn't even count the Bengals settling for field goals.

[fenway]

pats/cincy game

here is the question i pose. how do you keep a high scoring offense from scoring. by keeping their offense off the field. I predict the patriots will run a lot tonight keeping the cincy offense off the field by chewing up the clock. 53 points is a lot for an over. that is almost 2 td's a quarter. if they run the ball alot that will be hard to do. pats by 8

[EddieP]

no one liking the under??? :nuts:

[Underdog88]

While I think the Pats are a great team, it's a bit early to be crowning them AFC Champs. Is it really that impressive that the Pats have won so handily in their first 3 games? They have yet to face a decent offense!

NFL Total Offense

Bills #31

Jets #28

Chargers #26

Bengals #4


Palmer passed for 342 yards in Seattle last week. Had it not been for 4 turnovers, Cincy picks up the road win. IMO the one weakness the Pats D may have (I say may because a team has yet to exploit it) is their secondary. Hobbs (5-9) will likely get the task of covering #85 (6-1), & I would expect Chad to use his size advantage to the fullest. If given time to throw, Palmer will find an open receiver. The question is how much time does he get? I think nose tackle Wilfork's status could be a big factor here, as he is the rock of their d-line. If he's a no-go, Carson may have some extra time, giving the Bengals receivers time for double moves..... Although Rudi is a stud, Watson did rush 9x for 60 yards in Seattle. I would expect the Pats to throw a bunch of different looks at Cincy, & to drop more guys into coverage & allow the underneath plays... Carson will have to take what they give him & not force anything for Cincy to win/cover.

On the other side of the ball, we all know Cincy has a suspect D. One thing they have going for them is that they are physical. Everyone is calling for a shootout, but do you really think the Pats want to get involved in that? No way! I expect a ton of dink & dunk plays the Pats have become famous for running. I'm sure Belichek will look to wear down the D, so I expect tons of carries for Maroney/Morris as well. Ball control & keep the Bengals potent offense off the field. To win Cincy will have to be agressive but not over pursue.

Currently I'm leaning Bengals & under, but haven't locked anything in. Despite the Pats blowing out teams this season, they have accumulated totals of 52, 52 & 45. 54 is a damn high number to cover, especially when you take into effect the Pats gameplan ( which is purely my own speculation lol). 2td a quarter for the whole game could very well happen, but a couple 8 minute drives, some stalls & perhaps a turnover or 2 could very well keep this under the total. Just in case anyone forgot Homedogs are 11-4 ATS this season!.


Some great discussion here BTW

[EddieP]

under:beerbang:

[EddieP]

public pounding the pats to the tune of 84% and the over 77%........ really like the under :nuts:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

While I think the Pats are a great team, it's a bit early to be crowning them AFC Champs.

I've heard that a couple time now regarding NE backers.....but I don't think any of us here are doing that. Sure, they are one of the favourites, but the Colts and Steelers should be right there too. I think we just mean that we feel NE should win this game. Tonight. Nothing more.

GL UD!

[Q-Unit]

NE should win this game.

should or what will happen? LOL

j/p JML. cant take someone serious who is trying to middle with 8 pts.

I figured before seeing this line that it would 10, seeing at 7 seemed fishy,

dunno

GL everyone!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

should or what will happen? LOL

"should". lol. I think we all know, anything could happen.
I hope you hit that "8".
You have me seriously considering the same play with 6/9...but I like NE too much.

:nuts:

[NittanyLions94]

I sort of want to play the Pats, but BetED has the worst lines of any site I've ever seen on favs. This thing has been at -9 for days, so I guess there is value in the +9, but I may just lay off.

[homedawg]

but I like NE too much.

:nuts:

So does every 4 out 5, bettin' this game.... but after the books crossed the key number 7, they are just sittin' there, takin' in the "lop-sided" action.... They gotta be thinkin' this game stays within' 7.... I'm bettin' with the books... :drunk:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I sort of want to play the Pats, but BetED has the worst lines of any site I've ever seen on favs. This thing has been at -9 for days, so I guess there is value in the +9, but I may just lay off.

You gotta get more than one book NL....very important for just that reason. One of my books has 8.5, one 8, and a third 7.5, -105 (pinny)