New England/Cincinnati Line

[Kevin]

I have a question. Why is this gamed being played in Cincinnati two years in a row? With that being said I lost some jack last year in this same spot. Pats came in and put it on the Bengals to the tune of 38-13. NE got much better in the off season while Cin maintained. Not to mention Rudi Johnson is out of this game. Cin won't be able to run the ball and the Pats will t-off on the rush and pass defense. The Bengals may score 24 but they wont be able to hold the Pats to less than 35. I know we can't base a game on last years outcome but the Pats don't make their schedule so they beat up on who they played. Sure Cin is better than the other Patriot victims but that only means they lose by 14 instead of 24. My only problem is my local guy opens up shop about 1 1/2 hours before kickoff so I don't get to play the game early in the week and am going to be stuck with a higher number come Monday night.

Reznor,

Welcome to the forum. Any chance your the same reznor from back in the late 90's who posted at mgsports and a bunch of other boards, especially in contests?

[Reznor]

Reznor,

Welcome to the forum. Any chance your the same reznor from back in the late 90's who posted at mgsports and a bunch of other boards, especially in contests?

Thanks Kevin. Unfortunately I am not that Reznor that you speak of but hopefully I will be able to make a name for myself.

[FearTheRaven]

I don't know what to think about this game.

Almost feel like throwing 1 unit on the Bungholes for the hell of it.

[Stifler's Mom]

I've heard this said a few times...

"The Patriots cannot control who is on their schedule"

So, what's the point?

My point is that they beat up on 3 bad teams. Their defensive numbers are inflated out the ass because BUF, NYJ and SD cannot score for ****....and their offensive numbers as well because those offenses couldn't stay on the field and limit NE's chances.

The SD blowout looked alot more impressive before they lost by 14 at home to KC yesterday. It's clear that SD is a team in shambles.

You cannot possibly say NE is the best team ever because they beat up three 1-3 teams, none of which can score....but that's exactly what everyone is doing (media and alot of average Joe's).

I'm not sure what BAL is (not very good apparently), but CLE and SEA are by far and away better than NYJ, BUF or SD at this point in the season....so even though they lost those games, CIN actually played someone.

I'd say the CLE offense is pretty impressive (look at all the weapons....Lewis, Winslow, Edwards, Jurevicius, etc) they have. Now that they have a QB that isn't a piece of ****, they're starting to make plays and score points....so it makes the fact that they hung 52 on Cincinnati a little less hard to believe, and just a tad less sucky.

Horfin makes some great points too.

What if Cincy jumps out to a 10-0 or 14-0 lead in this game (heaven forbid Brady might throw an INT or someone on NE might fumble....since they're Gods who cannot screw up apparently). How is NE going to catch them to the point where they cover over a TD?

Also, to take NE - all those points, you would have to assume they will lead by 17+ late in the 4th qtr, since the Cincy offense can strike at any time and easily sneak in the back door.

Pats are the better team, yes, but the value all lies with Cincinnati tonight IMO. They just have a far better chance to cover....and nothing other than a flat out Patriots domination should get them this cover....at least not comfortably....and I don't see how you can bet on a fave of -8.5 or more and not feel they blow their opponent out by at least 20.

I don't see any evidence that NE will do this, other than that they "have Randy Moss and Tom Brady" and that they dominated 3 nobody's.

[homedawg]

I'm still tryin' to figure out the books reasoning, for opening at 6???:nuts:
immediately jumped passed a key number: 7, now holdin' 7.5-9 :beer2: jp still beatin' the hell outta ne and over... :beer2:

[Stifler's Mom]

Honestly, I don't think the books knew they would get his this hard on NE by Joe Pub. CIN has been one of Joe Pub's fav teams for a few years now, and I would assume they figured on some pretty decently even action on the spread at about a TD.

It's not like Joe Q to jump ship so quickly and easily on a team like CIN who has a flashy offense, so I can easily see where they figured on halfway even action on this line.

Apparently, however, their man crush on Tom Brady is even bigger than I thought, LOL

Either they're all right, or they're all wrong I guess....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I've heard this said a few times...

"The Patriots cannot control who is on their schedule"

So, what's the point?

Well...I guess you were referring to me....I don't know...I see your point Stif...good stuff, and great discussion guys...love to see the other side from all you guys, to keep me in check, lol... but I guess for me it is the fact I won't NOT back a team that has looked solid, just because they have killed 3 "bad" teams, as I think there is just a good of a chance they will beat a "mediocre" team by a DD. People here faded the **** out of Dallas against Chicago b/c they hadn't played anyone either. Sometimes these are just plain good teams on a roll, and will continue to get it done until they run into a serious contender on a ****ed up line. I don't think that is here yet. Dallas and NE have made me a boatload of cash so far this year, so I gotta stick with it until the lines really seem outta whack. The trick for me will be is knowing the week to stop. (It'll likely be next week for me and NE, as I hear it'll likely be over 2 TDs for NE against Cle) And that time is not tonight.

I think -7 is the a gift of the year...might be wrong...just one average joe's opinion. lol.

:nuts:

[homedawg]

Offensive fireworks should be featured prominently in the script for Monday night's game, which has the Cincinnati Bengals entertaining the unbeaten New England Patriots at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Bengals are not off to a strong start, having followed up an opening-night win over the Ravens with back-to-back losses to the Browns (51-45) and Seahawks (24-21).

Cincinnati has proven its ability to move the football, with quarterback Carson Palmer and wideouts Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh all on a record-setting offensive pace.

But the bigger story for the Bengals has been the deficiency of the team's defense, which has surrendered eight touchdown passes over the past two weeks to saddle Marvin Lewis' club with losses.

A fact which should have this week's opponent, the high-flying Patriots, positively salivating.

New England has looked unstoppable offensively in the first three weeks, with the duo of quarterback Tom Brady and wideout Randy Moss sparking blowout wins over the Jets (38-14), Chargers (38-14), and Bills (38-7).

Brady enters Week 4 with an NFL-leading 10 touchdown passes, and has thrown three or more TDs in three consecutive games for the first time in his illustrious career.

Moss, meanwhile, has gone over 100 receiving yards in each of his first three games of 2007, becoming the first player in NFL annals to achieve that feat in his initial trio of appearances for a new team.

SERIES HISTORY

New England holds a 12-8 lead in the all-time series with Cincinnati, including a 38-13 dismantling of the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 4 of last season. Cincinnati is 0-2 against New England since scoring its last victory in the series, a 23-17 win at home in 2001.

New England head coach Bill Belichick is 11-3 in his career against the Bengals, including 3-1 while with the Patriots. Cincinnati's Lewis is 0-2 against both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

New England enters Week 4 ranked No. 1 in NFL total offense (441 yards per game), and has a league-high 15 touchdowns scored already in 2007. Brady (887 passing yards, 10 TD, 1 INT) is a very early front-runner for NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors, as he leads the league in passer rating (141.8), touchdown passes, and completion percentage (79.5) through three weeks. The perennial Pro Bowl quarterback's favorite target has been the indefensible Moss (22 receptions, 5 TD), though Brady has spread the football often to other targets such as tight end Ben Watson (9 receptions, 3 TD) and wideout Wes Welker (20 receptions, 1 TD). Watson has scored a touchdown in each of the team's first three games thus far, while Welker comes off a week in which he paced the Pats with six catches in a win over Buffalo. Perhaps overlooked amid the passing barrage has been the play of the running game, with Laurence Maroney (252 rushing yards) and Sammy Morris (151 rushing yards, 2 TD) both doing their share of damage thus far. Maroney carried 19 times for 103 yards against the Bills.

If Cincinnati has any hope of scoring an upset on Monday, it will need an otherworldly effort from a defense that has been among the worst in the league thus far. One week after allowing formerly anonymous Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson to throw five touchdown passes in a 51-45 win, Seattle signal- caller Matt Hasselbeck was able to throw scoring strikes to three different wide receivers in last week's Cincinnati loss. A Bengals secondary led by cornerbacks Deltha O'Neal (11 tackles) and Johnathan Joseph (8 tackles) along with safety Madieu Williams (21 tackles, 1 INT) will have to grow up in a hurry on Monday, and must get some help from a pass rush that has been mostly nonexistent thus far. Cincinnati has just four sacks through three games, including one - by Robert Geathers (9 tackles) - from a defensive end. The front seven gave up 100 yards to Shaun Alexander last week, an improvement on the 200-plus game they gave the Browns' Jamal Lewis a one Sunday prior. Linebacker Landon Johnson (22 tackles) leads the club in stops as Week 4 begins.

WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

As if there was any doubt, you can expect Cincinnati to throw, throw, and throw some more on Sunday night. Any semblance of balance was thrown out the window when it was learned that running back Rudi Johnson (hamstring) was unlikely to be available, placing the burden of the ground game on usual third-down back Kenny Watson (60 rushing yards, 1 TD). That means you can expect to see a lot of connections between quarterback Carson Palmer (937 passing yards, 9 TD, 4 INT) and wideouts Chad Johnson (25 receptions, 3 TD) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (29 receptions, 4 TD), the trio that has more or less represented the entire offense through the first three weeks. Johnson leads the NFL in receiving yards (442), and fellow Houshmandzadeh is tops in the league in catches as Week 4 commences. In addition to Johnson, wideout Tab Perry (groin) is unlikely to see action on Monday night.

For all the accolades that the offense is receiving, few might be aware that the Patriots are also tops in the league in total defense (207 yards per game) as Week 4 begins. The New England pass rush has already generated 10 sacks on the year, with outside linebacker Mike Vrabel (18 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and end Jarvis Green (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks) ranking among league leaders in that category. The Patriots have also stifled the running games of the Jets, Chargers, and Bills, with nose tackle Vince Wilfork (7 tackles) and Ty Warren (13 tackles, 1 sack) making plays in the trenches and linebackers Tedy Bruschi (12 tackles) and Adalius Thomas (17 tackles, 1 INT) making plays behind them. The secondary has played well but is looking for a few more big plays, as cornerback Asante Samuel's (6 tackles) interception of Trent Edwards last Sunday ranked as the secondary's first pick of the year.


OVERALL ANALYSIS

Cincinnati rode a great wave of emotion to a win the last time it appeared at home, and Monday night's crowd should be just as vocal as the one that lifted Lewis and company to that win over Baltimore. But emotion can only take a team so far before talent takes over, and New England has a decided talent advantage in this contest. Cincinnati is perhaps the worst candidate in the league to stop the New England passing attack, which should have the Patriots scoring points at will. The Bengals will give the New England secondary problems as well, but short of scoring on every drive, you can't expect Cincinnati to do enough to run with an elite Patriots team for four quarters.

[homedawg]

NFL Monday Night Football Free Pick


Analysis: Stats are all New England on this one and the Patriots have been impressive so far to say the least. On the other hand the Monday Night graveyard is full of big away favorites and Cincinnati has on paper the offense at least to hang with what has become a high scoring NE team. Our advice? Don't lay big points on the road right now...

Favor: Pass



:beer2:

[PhillyFan3]

Why the Pats will win and cover??

a- I am going to bet the Bengals
b- read statement a

[Horfin]

Offensive fireworks should be featured prominently in the script for Monday night's game, which has the Cincinnati Bengals entertaining the unbeaten New England Patriots at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Bengals are not off to a strong start, having followed up an opening-night win over the Ravens with back-to-back losses to the Browns (51-45) and Seahawks (24-21).

Cincinnati has proven its ability to move the football, with quarterback Carson Palmer and wideouts Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh all on a record-setting offensive pace.

But the bigger story for the Bengals has been the deficiency of the team's defense, which has surrendered eight touchdown passes over the past two weeks to saddle Marvin Lewis' club with losses.

A fact which should have this week's opponent, the high-flying Patriots, positively salivating.

New England has looked unstoppable offensively in the first three weeks, with the duo of quarterback Tom Brady and wideout Randy Moss sparking blowout wins over the Jets (38-14), Chargers (38-14), and Bills (38-7).

Brady enters Week 4 with an NFL-leading 10 touchdown passes, and has thrown three or more TDs in three consecutive games for the first time in his illustrious career.

Moss, meanwhile, has gone over 100 receiving yards in each of his first three games of 2007, becoming the first player in NFL annals to achieve that feat in his initial trio of appearances for a new team.

SERIES HISTORY

New England holds a 12-8 lead in the all-time series with Cincinnati, including a 38-13 dismantling of the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 4 of last season. Cincinnati is 0-2 against New England since scoring its last victory in the series, a 23-17 win at home in 2001.

New England head coach Bill Belichick is 11-3 in his career against the Bengals, including 3-1 while with the Patriots. Cincinnati's Lewis is 0-2 against both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

New England enters Week 4 ranked No. 1 in NFL total offense (441 yards per game), and has a league-high 15 touchdowns scored already in 2007. Brady (887 passing yards, 10 TD, 1 INT) is a very early front-runner for NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors, as he leads the league in passer rating (141.8), touchdown passes, and completion percentage (79.5) through three weeks. The perennial Pro Bowl quarterback's favorite target has been the indefensible Moss (22 receptions, 5 TD), though Brady has spread the football often to other targets such as tight end Ben Watson (9 receptions, 3 TD) and wideout Wes Welker (20 receptions, 1 TD). Watson has scored a touchdown in each of the team's first three games thus far, while Welker comes off a week in which he paced the Pats with six catches in a win over Buffalo. Perhaps overlooked amid the passing barrage has been the play of the running game, with Laurence Maroney (252 rushing yards) and Sammy Morris (151 rushing yards, 2 TD) both doing their share of damage thus far. Maroney carried 19 times for 103 yards against the Bills.

If Cincinnati has any hope of scoring an upset on Monday, it will need an otherworldly effort from a defense that has been among the worst in the league thus far. One week after allowing formerly anonymous Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson to throw five touchdown passes in a 51-45 win, Seattle signal- caller Matt Hasselbeck was able to throw scoring strikes to three different wide receivers in last week's Cincinnati loss. A Bengals secondary led by cornerbacks Deltha O'Neal (11 tackles) and Johnathan Joseph (8 tackles) along with safety Madieu Williams (21 tackles, 1 INT) will have to grow up in a hurry on Monday, and must get some help from a pass rush that has been mostly nonexistent thus far. Cincinnati has just four sacks through three games, including one - by Robert Geathers (9 tackles) - from a defensive end. The front seven gave up 100 yards to Shaun Alexander last week, an improvement on the 200-plus game they gave the Browns' Jamal Lewis a one Sunday prior. Linebacker Landon Johnson (22 tackles) leads the club in stops as Week 4 begins.

WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

As if there was any doubt, you can expect Cincinnati to throw, throw, and throw some more on Sunday night. Any semblance of balance was thrown out the window when it was learned that running back Rudi Johnson (hamstring) was unlikely to be available, placing the burden of the ground game on usual third-down back Kenny Watson (60 rushing yards, 1 TD). That means you can expect to see a lot of connections between quarterback Carson Palmer (937 passing yards, 9 TD, 4 INT) and wideouts Chad Johnson (25 receptions, 3 TD) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (29 receptions, 4 TD), the trio that has more or less represented the entire offense through the first three weeks. Johnson leads the NFL in receiving yards (442), and fellow Houshmandzadeh is tops in the league in catches as Week 4 commences. In addition to Johnson, wideout Tab Perry (groin) is unlikely to see action on Monday night.

For all the accolades that the offense is receiving, few might be aware that the Patriots are also tops in the league in total defense (207 yards per game) as Week 4 begins. The New England pass rush has already generated 10 sacks on the year, with outside linebacker Mike Vrabel (18 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and end Jarvis Green (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks) ranking among league leaders in that category. The Patriots have also stifled the running games of the Jets, Chargers, and Bills, with nose tackle Vince Wilfork (7 tackles) and Ty Warren (13 tackles, 1 sack) making plays in the trenches and linebackers Tedy Bruschi (12 tackles) and Adalius Thomas (17 tackles, 1 INT) making plays behind them. The secondary has played well but is looking for a few more big plays, as cornerback Asante Samuel's (6 tackles) interception of Trent Edwards last Sunday ranked as the secondary's first pick of the year.


OVERALL ANALYSIS

Cincinnati rode a great wave of emotion to a win the last time it appeared at home, and Monday night's crowd should be just as vocal as the one that lifted Lewis and company to that win over Baltimore. But emotion can only take a team so far before talent takes over, and New England has a decided talent advantage in this contest. Cincinnati is perhaps the worst candidate in the league to stop the New England passing attack, which should have the Patriots scoring points at will. The Bengals will give the New England secondary problems as well, but short of scoring on every drive, you can't expect Cincinnati to do enough to run with an elite Patriots team for four quarters.

This is what results in a 70%-30% split on the Pats.................

This weekend:
Joe Public: "There is no way SD loses to KC"
Joe Public: "There is no way Chi loses to Detroit, Detroit just allowed 50+ pts to Philly and finally Grossman is out of there."
Joe Public: "There is no way NYG hangs with Philadelphia...Phil just layed a big one on Detroit."
Joe Public: "Buffalo is all banged up they can not possibly stay with the Jets."
Joe Public: "Cleveland cant stay with a McNair led Baltimore team"
Joe Public: "Favre sucks in Domes"
Joe Public: "Carolina is much better than TB and TB got lucky last two against a bad NO team."
Joe Public: "Pittsburgh has destroyed the last three teams it has played and Arizona has had a hard time with all of its opponents...I don't care that Pitt is on the road..."

Look long and hard at that last one. I mean really long and hard.

Horfin

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

This is what results in a 70%-30% split on the Pats.................

This weekend:
Joe Public: "There is no way SD loses to KC"
Joe Public: "There is no way Chi loses to Detroit, Detroit just allowed 50+ pts to Philly and finally Grossman is out of there."
Joe Public: "There is no way NYG hangs with Philadelphia...Phil just layed a big one on Detroit."
Joe Public: "Buffalo is all banged up they can not possibly stay with the Jets."
Joe Public: "Cleveland cant stay with a McNair led Baltimore team"
Joe Public: "Favre sucks in Domes"
Joe Public: "Carolina is much better than TB and TB got lucky last two against a bad NO team."
Joe Public: "Pittsburgh has destroyed the last three teams it has played and Arizona has had a hard time with all of its opponents...I don't care that Pitt is on the road..."

Also...
Joe Public: "Dallas will kill a bad STL team"
Joe Public: "Indy too strong at home, will kill a suspect Denver squad"

The only team in your above examples that could be considered elite is Pittsburgh. The way SD, Chi, Phi, NYJ, Bal, Min and Car have played this year...meaning inconsistant at best, and horrible at worst...not even the people who backed them as a favourite are THAT surprised to get a Loss I would think (including me with NYJ/CAR!)

NE is more of a Dallas or Indy situation, IMO.

And one could say the Pats are in an even better spot than all these other road favs above that lost, as Brady and Belichek are known to get it done in these situations...they are is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as the road favorite. Contrary to worries of it happening from some people...history says they rarely let backdoor covers happen in these situations...it's called ball control, and good situational defence.

GL! :beerbang:

[DevilsAdvokt]

This is what results in a 70%-30% split on the Pats.................

This weekend:
Joe Public: "There is no way SD loses to KC"
Joe Public: "There is no way Chi loses to Detroit, Detroit just allowed 50+ pts to Philly and finally Grossman is out of there."
Joe Public: "There is no way NYG hangs with Philadelphia...Phil just layed a big one on Detroit."
Joe Public: "Buffalo is all banged up they can not possibly stay with the Jets."
Joe Public: "Cleveland cant stay with a McNair led Baltimore team"
Joe Public: "Favre sucks in Domes"
Joe Public: "Carolina is much better than TB and TB got lucky last two against a bad NO team."
Joe Public: "Pittsburgh has destroyed the last three teams it has played and Arizona has had a hard time with all of its opponents...I don't care that Pitt is on the road..."

Look long and hard at that last one. I mean really long and hard.

Horfin

i made a parlay 9 spot yesterday
(all games were money line to win)


kc
san fran ----- lost
detroit
cleveland
colts
packers
bucs
giants
steelers----- lost

i am still upset at yesterday afternoon qb's leaving me with these questions to why i lost this ticket


lion-heart why do you have to suck so bad?
warner why you have to come in the game and hurt me again?
alex smith why did u leave your team on the field, maybe suck it up next time?
Dilfer why are you still in the NFL? atleast mcnabb played a talented d-line

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

i am still upset at yesterday afternoon qb's leaving me with these questions to why i lost this ticket

You lost because it is a 9-team parlay. Period. lol!
I would say that 99% of 9 team parlay's lose.

Close though!

GL! :beerbang:

[DevilsAdvokt]

You lost because it is a 9-team parlay. Period. lol!
I would say that 99% of 9 team parlay's lose.

Close though!

GL! :beerbang:

ya true but its my usual 8-10 spot 5 dollar pick i do every week



btw tonights game seems fishy like the eagles/giants

u smell points under with alot of ball control here?