Homedog Heaven! Week 4 Discussion

**JohnnyMapleLeaf** · 09-25-2007, 10:59 AM

Hey UD! :beerbang:

Homedogs I like from that list are: Niners, Vikings, Cardinals & Browns.

Homedogs I will be playing this week: Niners.

I think the Niners win that one outright...they've had it tough the past 2 weeks having to travel West to East, and I am not going to put much stock into that bad loss at Pitt....with back to back travel weeks, and facing one of the best teams in the league...I had a feeling they would be in trouble. BUT...coming back home, to face a team that hasn't shown me much all year...especially last week with their struggles against a bad Cincy defence at home, now going on the road to SF, where they don't play as well....I'll be on the Niners.

Slight leans on the Vikings, Cards & Browns, but I don't think when it comes down to it I can; A) back that Minny offence against a hot Farve, and a surprisngly good Packer defence...maybe getting 3+, but not at a near pickem.....or B) go against the Steelers....they are a complete team....although if I was forced to pick a side I'd take the points with Zona, because of the Steelers going on the road to the West Coast....or C) I would lean to the Brownies getting points at home, as I still feel the Ravens are overrated....I cashed last week fading their offence on that ridiculously enormous line they were expected to cover. I think this is too much this week for them on the road as well. Most likely no-plays on all three however.

As for the others...

I don't know how you can even think about the Bills with all their injuries. they were a bad team before they were hit with this wave of players to the IR...now Add Losman and PP?? I'm all over the underrated Jets...and I wouldn't take Buffalo even at +7.5 in that one, let alone a FG! I've locked in the Jets for 4 Units already.

I'm also on the Pats...although I locked it in early at -6 on Sunday night, figuring it wuld move to near 8. Brady and company will dissect that horrible defence, and unlike the Cleveland game....the Pats have a defence to hold the Cincy playmakers in check. If Seattle and Baltimore could do it to some degree, the Pats can too. I really see a 20 point blowout by the Pats, but happy I am locked in at -6 for 4 units already.

As for the Giants, Lions & Falcons....those are no-plays for me as well, and I'm not even looking into them.

I would lean to the Eagles because of the bad Giants defence, but who knows what Philly team we see. No play.

No way I am getting near the Detroit/Chicago game. These are two teams that generally suck (although some will most likely STILL have a hardon for the bears because of last years big name defence), but have the ability to play well on one side of the ball....offence for the Lions and Defence for the Bears. Chicago will likely have Griese starting, which wil end my weekly Grossman fade, but I don't know if I can back the Bears with all the injuries on defence. Likely a no-play as well.

Not sure how anyone could back the Falcons....and If was to play this game it would definitely be Houston, but another no-play.

So far I'm locked in early on NE -6, Jets -3, & Cowboys -11.5. Waiting on the SF play to see what happens with the line...hopefully it goes closer to a FG, but got my fav plays in early as I figured they would do nothing but move against me.....and they have.

GL, UD!!! :thumbs:

**Daws1089** · 09-25-2007, 11:47 AM

Excellent job getting the discussion going udoggie. Lito could play this week vs nyg, but he will probly be questionable. im thinking they wait to bring him back until after the bye week. However, I do think dawkins will play.

Im right there with you on minny and san fran. Favre is imfamous for sucking indoors and they are primed for a let down after that one last week. Minnesota's defense isnt terrible either. Kelly holcomb can manage a game as good as anyone. he will minimize the mistakes on offense.

I also remember seattle's horribleness on the road. for example, 2 weeks ago @ arizona? San fran will look to go 3-0 in the division and take a commanding lead out west. Apparently alexander has a broken bone in his wrist, but is still playing? I'll question his effectiveness against the niners tough D.

Browns could be live. Baltimore's usual offensive struggles are still there, but now the defense is struggling too. Two weeks in a row the defense folds late in the game and you have to think this game in cleveland will come down to the 4th quarter. Samari Rolle could be out again too. Cleveland's pass attack might be a little better than the jets, but not quite as good as the cardinals. Let's see if the browns develop a no huddle scheme. the no huddle has dismantled the ravens defense the last two weeks.I'll keep analyzing this one.

**Meestermike** · 09-25-2007, 12:22 PM

Some of my 80% Club Statistical Trends

When NEW YORK GIANTS played as a Home team - With 6 days off - Before a non division game - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog: SU = 19-4-0.

When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Road team as a Favorite - Vs Division Opponent - Total is between 37 to 41: ATS = 2-8-0; O\U = 8-2-0
When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Last 3 years : O\U = 8-2-0
When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as a Road team - With 6 days off - Last 2 years: ATS = 2-8-0; O\U = 8-2-0.

Will have some more later once I peruse the massive DB list

**NCSUWolfpack** · 09-25-2007, 12:39 PM

Just going back real quick. So far this year Home Dogs are 8-4. I counted Houston as a W against Indy last week.

Break down by weeks:
Week 1: W's are home dogs covering
Denver @ Buff (W)
Pitt @ Clev (L)
Philly @ GB (W)
NE @ Jets (L)

Week 2:
Cincy @ Clev (W)
Indy @ Tenn (W)
NO @ TB (W)
Dallas @ Miami (L)
Seattle @ Ariz (W)

Week 3:
Indy @ Houston (W)
SD @ GB (W)
Carolina @ ATL (L)

**HOMERHOMERUN** · 09-25-2007, 12:44 PM

well, just play all home dawgs and hope to hit it all! :beerbang:

**NittanyLions94** · 09-25-2007, 12:46 PM

The ones I like so far:

Bengals +7.5
Lions +2.5
Giants +2.5(my favorite)

Reasons to come later.

**Horfin** · 09-25-2007, 01:07 PM

Lions are probably the best play on the board. I got news for everyone. Not everything in Chicago is Grossmans fault, there is a lot more to it. Benson Fumbled, defense lost key players in the off season and in the season so far. Detroit is off an embarassing loss. Lions should be a FAV of 3 points. Last week was a fluke. Kitna is not as bad as the INTs and Fum he put up. Remember he put up 400 yards against philly (only managed 21 points becuase of TOs). This same Philly D only allowed 16 and 20 points and a LOT less yards in the previous 2.

My gut was the Detroit should be favored by 3. I can't figure out how a team who has barely put up 40 points with a questionable QB, injured (and missing) defensive players, and the wrong RB can be favored on the road to a team with an offense and a limited defense.

**DevilsAdvokt** · 09-25-2007, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by NCSUWolfpack

Just going back real quick. So far this year Home Dogs are 8-4. I counted Houston as a W against Indy last week.

Break down by weeks:
Week 1: W's are home dogs covering
Denver @ Buff (W)
Pitt @ Clev (L)
Philly @ GB (W)
NE @ Jets (L)

Week 2:
Cincy @ Clev (W)
Indy @ Tenn (W)
NO @ TB (W)
Dallas @ Miami (L)
Seattle @ Ariz (W)

Week 3:
Indy @ Houston (W)
SD @ GB (W)
Carolina @ ATL (L)

only problem for me with these are that all the above games with home dogs previous weeks was fairly easy to predict the outcome...

3 games i went agaisnt week#2 i took cinci & indi week #3 i took sandiego
now 1 game in week 3 i took the colts but i teased it 5 points to - 1.5
but the line was open at -5 i believe so it covered for some and not for others...

this weeks games are a little harder to digest for me... first thought no brainer picks when i see the board would be

steelers -6
jets -3.5
packers -1

steelers look solid
bills look terrible
packers are hot gotta ride em till the lose

all these games i had pre capped myself

steelers -9
jets -6.5
packers -3

all the lines are under what i though makes me want to take them now...

i dispise espn for screwing with my mojo and trying to hype up the bengals for monday night saying they step up for big games... cause i was all hyped up for another patriots 38-10 win this team is unbelieveable...

the home dogs i like for sure this week

49ers beat seahawks both times last year and have gotten better in offseason seahawks have not...

lions gut feeling and with bears 6 def starters out.... lions offense will be rollin

giants, this is hard for me i probably wont play because i am a big time eagles fan for life but eagles did tear up the lions def in phili and kitna threw for 400+ on them
eagles have problems with kitna at giants stadium plaxico burress is gonna be having a field day with eagles secondary ... on the other side of the ball giants def is better than they showed in first 2 weeks.. plus there is no TO or Driver against them or Moss its brown avant basket??? ya eagles recievers will get jammed forcing mcnabb to be throwing underneath all game.. eagles kick few fieldgoals in this maybe a hail mary touchdown lose 24-13

my home dog picks this week so far

GIANTS
49ers
Lions

not sure if i got it in me to bet against me eagles....

**flmmkrz** · 09-25-2007, 02:24 PM

my early leans:

Seattle -2

I don't know if you guys saw the hawks game vs Cincy but it wasn't the same group of civs that played the browns. I don't know how the saying goes exactly but something along the lines of a team isn't as bad as it looks when its playing poorly etc and the bengals d was very agressive and despite being undermanned played very well. The hawks did not play poorly on offense the bengals just brought it on d. They were similarily agressive when they played the ravens and forced 5 turnovers. If a team is very agressive they're prone to being burned but they'll cause a lot of teams problems this year. After handling the cincy offense and the zona offense I am more than confident in this pick. Zona came out of the gates blazing as Leinart was able to spread the ball around and open up the run game. Palmer just throws the ball so well and has crazy weapons. The defense adjusted well to both of these games. Won one, and had us in a position to win the other. Smith just isn't a threat to throw the ball around on us so the focus will be gore. One dimensional offense with our defense as it is now should be something we can scheme for. Niners don't play no huddle so our defensive rotations should keep the guys fresh enough to handle Gore. Hasselbeck is also playing very well right now, he's got this offense clicking. He came into last game with 0 ints, and the 2 he got in the game weren't his fault, one he hits the reciever in the hands and he popped it up , the 2nd was a fluke playin which Burleson and the corner both went up for the ball and when they landed the ball popped straight up into the hands of the safety coming in late. The pass opens up the run for seattle and despite the wrist Shauns able to run he just can't catch as well. We're also dangerous on special teams, Burleson on punt returns and Wilson on kickoffs are giving us great field position. Obviously im a homer but I love the hawks this week. Vernon Davis is out as well, that is huge for the niners offense has he was coming into his own as the big threat.

other home dogs that im leaning towards:

Vikes - I like Holcomb running the offense, and this defense should give the pack the pressure that the bolts overated d couldn't.

Falcons - this one should get banged up a bit but the falcons are playing solid d and the texans are one dimensional if Greens not a go. Hall should shut down his half which really limits the texans game plan. If Harrington can play like he did this past weekend this may be win number 1 but I like them to keep it close.

I dont have strong opinions on the other ones

**Horfin** · 09-25-2007, 03:34 PM

Here is my opinion on the Ben-gals. The Special Teams are pathetic.
Versus Seattle:
Allowed a KR for 72 and 33 yards.
Fumbled final kickoff (of course just about any person would have fumbled that one, he got nailed from two different directions)
Bengals averaged lass than 20 yards on KO returns.

Versus Cleveland:
Allowed a 85 KR

Versus Baltimore
Allowed a 65 PR for a TD and a 47 KR.
--------------------
Take away the Seattle 72 yard return and Cincy may win
Take away the Cleve 85 y ard return and Cincy may win
Take away the Ed Reed PR and Cincinnati wins by more
--------------------

Special teams work like this:
The Offensive coach wants all the best players on Offense
The Defensive coach wants all the best players on Defense
The ST coach wants all the best players on ST
The head coach decides.

Now with those results (and everyone cincy talking about how bad the ST are and not so much the defense) you'd have to think M. Lewis moves things around and puts players on ST that normally don't play.

Also, Bellicheat is notorious for finding a teams weakness and exploiting it (vs. Minn last year) I'd look for some trick **** from him on KR and PR.

All that being said, I'm probably going with the home dog on Monday Night. Not becuase Cincy gets hyped for big games (THAT IS SO UNTRUE....Last year Cincy needed one win in three games to get in the playoffs, and they won 0). But rather, M Lewis is a good coach and will keep it close. Unlike Buffalo, NYJ and SD (to a lesser extent) Cincinnati truely has an impressive offense. I would expect to see a different game plan against NE, long slow drives by Cincy to keep the score low and keep cincy in it and keep their defense off the field with a minimal chance for mistakes. If you don't score much hyour ST is not on the field. Run Rudy Run and short passes. Eat clock.

**COACH DITKA** · 09-25-2007, 04:24 PM

Horfy - good points about Bears/Lions

Just thought I'd copy and paste what I just noted in Mark's thread regarding this game:

************************************************** ********
GL to ya Mark on all your plays, but this one especially. My Bears are in real bad shape right now and I won't lay a cent on 'em until they start playing better. I caution you that the Bears D is very beat up. Tommie is out for the game (Dusty and Mike Brown already on IR) with Briggs and Vasher also hurting. Archuleta was wearing an air cast yesterday (presumably hurt himself missing a tackle). Not saying the Lions have the offense that the 'Boys do, but they are similar. Lions can't really run that well (Dallas suspect here as well) and just look to chuck the ball w/Kitna on most snaps. We all saw how well this worked for Dallas, as the D was always on the field and began to tire in the 2H, allowing Dallas to pile on the points. Kitna also has a better WR corps at his disposal than Romo right now as well. I shouldn't (but I will) even mention this, but I've seen no signs of Grossman to snap out of his funk, no matter how bad Lions' D is. He couldn't do **** against a below average SD secondary while Farve lit them up. When your only TD is to the back-up T in the first 3 games and have 6 picks already while continuing to make the same mistakes, these are very bad signs.
Like I said, I hope to hell you hit this pick, but my Bears scare me way too much right now to go anywhere near them.
************************************************** ********

I agree w/JML as a no-play (at least for me - though very hard as a Bears fan to see this low of a spread versus the lowly Lions b/c it says we are sucking right now). This has to be either a no-play or play on Detroit. No one can anyone lay points w/the Bears on the road right now, especially in a division game. However, for people playing this game, pay attention to tomorrow's announcement of the starter. If it is indeed Griese, people might start pitching a tent at this low line again. However, I caution all that Griese was terrible in the preseason and not much better in camp, with Orton actually looking pretty good. This doesn't even take into consideration the chemistry of the team as there is obviously a lot of angry Bears in the locker room right now, Olin among them. They include they QB controversy, Benson battling fumbilititis (as well as why is he still here and Jones in NYJ), the old balls OL, the defense that is having more injuries than Mark Prior, etc.
Anyways, just my two cents.

Moose

**Q-Unit** · 09-25-2007, 05:20 PM

i like bills and bengals. alot. just remind me to stay away from the others, or we will ahve a debacle like last week where i went 3-6! LOL

:bang:

ah who am I kidding, i will end up playing the board LMAO.

you know, i'm not a bills fan, but they are one tough team this year.

I feel this way because:

1) they could easily be 2-1 (at least ATS) with what all the injuries they've had and they keep plugging along.

2) i could be wrong but if losman wasnt taken out early of the last game and they were up 7-0, that game IMO could have at least been a bit closer.

3) that rookie RB is something special.

4) the injuries. just crazy how much they've had, and how serious too!

anyways out of that list, I like the Bills still against a mediocre Jets team IMO....bills just a tough bunch, and if they are perceived to be that bad, the line is a bit lowif that theory held any water.

bengals, cuz everyone will be on the pats nuts and think they are invincible, which they arent. and this line may seem "easy" for pats backers.

just MY two cents. then again I was wrong last week. but if I wanted to go downthat road,
if and buts, I had two pushes, and two games which were fishy/backdoor bew****. could have easily been 7-4 instead of 3-6-2 LOL. but i just had to type that to reassure myself into playing most of the board again like an insane degenerate LOL

GL !

**Q-Unit** · 09-25-2007, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by Horfin

But rather, M Lewis is a good coach and will keep it close. .

i agree with everything you said Horf, but have to respectfully disagree on that statement.

the guy is brian billick's long lost jackass brother. both men are known and ride on their reputation as master of their respective trades. being offense and defense for billick and lewis, respectfully. (at least as coordinators)

now why is it that billicks ravens couldnt score in a whorehouse, and lewis' bengals couldnt keep a neutered gay man from scoring in a whorehouse?

I really think with any other decent coach, both the bengals and ravens would be legitimate contenders, frontrunners even.

these two men IMO are just living off of past jobs and situations and their true colors have come into the light, that they are inept.

I mean look at Tony Dungy, the supposed defensive guru, ever since he came to Indy, they at least have a respectable defense, if not above average.

I'm also starting to think that about Wade Phillips unless the Cowboys can play good D against someoneother than Chicago's suckass O.

**Daws1089** · 09-25-2007, 08:00 PM

[QUOTE=Q-Unit;79141]
now why is it that billicks ravens couldnt score in a whorehouse, and lewis' bengals couldnt keep a neutered gay man from scoring in a whorehouse?

QUOTE]

that made me laugh haha

Homedog Heaven! Week 4 Discussion